Tennis - Wimbledon

[Atko]

Draws are made tomorrow and I can sense the anticipation from a few punters already. So here's the thread for two weeks of grass court tennis - get stuck in chaps :ok

[hornet_18]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Just noting my early bet on Azarenka in the Womens draw as mentioned on last weeks posts. Got her @ 100s at SportingBet who have now cut her to a market low of 8s which seems a ridiculous price. Like her draw too (she has Clay courters Stosur and Penetta, and Wozniaki who isnt the best on grass and I'm pretty sure is unfit, in her quarter so it looks as good as it could!) and clearly shes hit form reaching the final at Eastbourne this week so I'm happy with the 100s I've got. Have also taken Hewitt @ 50s (now available @ 40s which I feel is more than fair) and Roddicks @ 14s, both e/w. They are both in Federers half, but the other quarter and really with only Djokovic and Cilic in their quarter, I wouldnt be surprised to see them meeting each other in the quarters. Hewitt actually only really has clay courters in his part of that quarter (most likely Gonzalez, Schwank and Monfils) so should have a pretty straight forward route to the 4th round against Djokovic where at the moment I'd make him a favourite to get through to the 1/4s. Roddicks route is a bit more tricky but with his grass court record and motivation to take advantage of a faltering Fed and maintain his ranking after last years finals points, I cant see him not beating the likes of Kohlschreiber and Ljubicic - Cilic might be more difficult but he hasnt been playing as well as earlier in the year. Should they meet in the quarters, I dont think Federer would really want to play either of these guys considering his recent loss to Hewitt and the final against Roddick last year; considering he really isnt playing that well (in the last set against Hewitt last week he was shocking) considering his normally incredible standards, I'm more than happy to take him on! GL:hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Azarenka looks a great value bet at that price. Stosur, Rezai, Wozniacki, Zheng and Pennetta in her quarter.....not so bad. Serena/Sharapova or Radwanksa possiby await in the semi's though. As for the mens, Federer has a pretty nice draw I think. Murray aswell....want to oppose Murray at some point but not much going on in his quarter........Ferrero, Tsonga and Verdasco in there.....should beat the first two anyway.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Can't see past the Williams sisters to be honest. Williams sisters to beat the field @ Evens (Paddy Power:10/10) Struggle to see at least one sister in the final this year. Serena has a potential 4th round clash with Sharapova which could be tricky but Sharapova will have to serve alot better than she did vs Na Li the other day to stand a chance. Radwanska is also in Serena's quarter but she simply doesn't have the weapons to be her on grass IMO. In a potential semi-final she would face one of Wozniacki, Azareanka, Stosur and she would be clear favourite there. Early rounds she has De Brito in round one(shrieker with alot of tenacity but with her serve she'll be murdered). Venus is the top dog on grass this decade....having a few troubles in recent months with some niggles but I think she'll improve as the tournament progresses. Safina is in her quarter and Ivanovic(both could be gone early the way they are playing).Semi could be tough with Henin, Clijsters, Petrova and Jankovic in the other quarter.......not as confident in Venus but she has the game for grass and will be dangerous. Will try and cover it with a small go on Sharapova e/w. Sharapova e/w to win Wimbledon @ 11/1 (Boylesports : 2/10) Sharapova still not back at her best level but I believe she's getting there....problem is she's struggling to beat higher-ranked players this year and her serve can go at any time. Still feel she can be a big threat on grass and a possible match with Serena in rd 4 is possibly the better time to face her and maybe catch her before it gets deep in the second week, even though she will be an underdog going into that one. I'd give her a good chance against the rest of the players in her half so will take shot on this. She will need to serve well and hit with consistent depth and power.....but she has the tools to do it. Plus she's a fighter so hopefully get some value for my money. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Not a great deal to go on for the men's antepost. It's a shame that both Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick are in Roger Federer's section of the draw, as they'd the the each way bets I'd look for. Hewitt beat Federer in Halle but Wimbledon's a different kettle of fish. I think Roddick may let what's happened in the past get to him if he plays Federer. In the other half, I can't see past Rafael Nadal, but the price is awfully poor for each way value. Andy Murray has a decent draw. I wanted to oppose him, but he should beat everyone he's due to face en route to the semis, where it'll probably be Nadal. Unlike the French, I can't see a plethora of shocks. The usual grass courters should be at the business end. A lot of the guys don't like this surface and haven't played much on it. Federer for me looks the winner, but I can't back him at 2.50.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

my first big bet of the tournament is as follows: JUAN CARLOS FERRERO TO BEAT XAVIER MALISSE AT 5-4 PADDYPOWER 3 POINTS! i cannot for the life of me understand how juan carlos ferrero is underdog in this one!! i feel there has been a big over-reaction to malisse's victory over djokovic at queens last week....i saw the match and evn though malisse played well , novak was far from his best!! and malisse typically lost the quarter-final the next day in straight sets against eventual champion sam querrey which was no disgrace but as usual he wasn't able to follow up a big victory which has been a prominent pattern pervading through his whole career! in fairness he has had a decent grass court season so far beating the likes of tursonov, tomic and of course novak.... but today he got beaten by stakhovsky in straight sets!! there's no doubting his talent... great groundstrokes off both wings and a big serve but the mental side of his game is what has let him down over the years!! he has always had difficulties maintaining his concentration and toughness on every point and he's a bit slow around the court these days but he still knows how to play grass court tennis! however, so too does his opponent juan carlos ferrero and yet again this man has been under-rated by the bookies on a surface that these days might even be his best surface and last year he was quoted as saying that it was his favourite surface!! it seems that because juan carlos ferrero is a former french open champion and a spaniard that ultimately he's really a clay courter and not quite the same force on grass!! but if you look closely at his record, particularly recent record....you could see that the man really does play well on the grass!! he's been a quarter finalist at wimbledon twice and to the 4th round twice also!! he's also one of the few men that can boast about taking a set off federer on the grass! last year he beat the likes of youzny and fernando gonzalez on his run to the quarters before finding murray too good!! he has also won the only match between the two players last year....ON GRASS...in queens in straight sets!! his form this year has been mostly very good....he had a great time in the south american clay court season winning in chile and brazil....he was shocked in the third round of the french by ginepri but bobby really played outstanding in that match i thought!! it certainly is worrying that he lost to meffert in halle on grass almost two weeks ago but he just didnt seem that interested.....dont think it was an injury problem!! he has the exact qualities that malisse lacks.....mental toughness.....the ability to play tough on every point for 5 sets (a great match player), consistency in long ralleys....malisse tends to break down eventually or just go 4 the big winner.... and on grass he plays the counter-punching style and will mix his game up, feed off malisse's pacy groundstrokes and pass malisse at will when he attacks the net!! malisse hasn't went on a good run for a while at wimbledon and last year went out very tamely to schuettler in the first round when, like this year, his form looked good going into the tournament!! he's obviously very talented and ii wouldn't be surprised if this match went to 4 or even 5 sets but ultimately ferrero is the superior match player and provided he's fit and motivated...i think he'll win this one!!he was 11-8 with powers....now 5-4 and i expect the price to shorten still!! the fact that he is underdog in this match makes it so much tastier to back!! good luck

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

my first big bet of the tournament is as follows: JUAN CARLOS FERRERO TO BEAT XAVIER MALISSE AT 5-4 PADDYPOWER 3 POINTS! i cannot for the life of me understand how juan carlos ferrero is underdog in this one!! i feel there has been a big over-reaction to malisse's victory over djokovic at queens last week....i saw the match and evn though malisse played well , novak was far from his best!! and malisse typically lost the quarter-final the next day in straight sets against eventual champion sam querrey which was no disgrace but as usual he wasn't able to follow up a big victory which has been a prominent pattern pervading through his whole career! in fairness he has had a decent grass court season so far beating the likes of tursonov, tomic and of course novak.... but today he got beaten by stakhovsky in straight sets!! there's no doubting his talent... great groundstrokes off both wings and a big serve but the mental side of his game is what has let him down over the years!! he has always had difficulties maintaining his concentration and toughness on every point and he's a bit slow around the court these days but he still knows how to play grass court tennis! however, so too does his opponent juan carlos ferrero and yet again this man has been under-rated by the bookies on a surface that these days might even be his best surface and last year he was quoted as saying that it was his favourite surface!! it seems that because juan carlos ferrero is a former french open champion and a spaniard that ultimately he's really a clay courter and not quite the same force on grass!! but if you look closely at his record, particularly recent record....you could see that the man really does play well on the grass!! he's been a quarter finalist at wimbledon twice and to the 4th round twice also!! he's also one of the few men that can boast about taking a set off federer on the grass! last year he beat the likes of youzny and fernando gonzalez on his run to the quarters before finding murray too good!! he has also won the only match between the two players last year....ON GRASS...in queens in straight sets!! his form this year has been mostly very good....he had a great time in the south american clay court season winning in chile and brazil....he was shocked in the third round of the french by ginepri but bobby really played outstanding in that match i thought!! it certainly is worrying that he lost to meffert in halle on grass almost two weeks ago but he just didnt seem that interested.....dont think it was an injury problem!! he has the exact qualities that malisse lacks.....mental toughness.....the ability to play tough on every point for 5 sets (a great match player), consistency in long ralleys....malisse tends to break down eventually or just go 4 the big winner.... and on grass he plays the counter-punching style and will mix his game up, feed off malisse's pacy groundstrokes and pass malisse at will when he attacks the net!! malisse hasn't went on a good run for a while at wimbledon and last year went out very tamely to schuettler in the first round when, like this year, his form looked good going into the tournament!! he's obviously very talented and ii wouldn't be surprised if this match went to 4 or even 5 sets but ultimately ferrero is the superior match player and provided he's fit and motivated...i think he'll win this one!!he was 11-8 with powers....now 5-4 and i expect the price to shorten still!! the fact that he is underdog in this match makes it so much tastier to back!! good luck

Like you smeg, I immediately wanted to take Ferrero when I heard about the price. But a few things: Ferrero was emptied by Dominic Meffert in R1 of Halle, and has been woefully out of form for two months now. He hasn't played much tennis since Rome and is up against a guy who does his best work on grass. Malisse looks a bit out of shape and I question whether he can go five sets, but Ferrero's recent form worries me. Quality-wise, he's a better player, but I question where the Spaniard's is at the moment. Need to think this one over...

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Isner to beat Mahut @ 4/6 (Stan James: 8/10) looks OK, expected Isner to be 1.5 to be honest. Clash of styles I'd say, serve and volleyer Mahut against big server Isner. Mahut has a good game for grass....good serve and great at the net. Also leads h2h 1-0 beating Isner at Queens in 08, though Isner is much improved since then. Thing about Mahut is I don't expect him to do a whole lot on Isner's serve....he's come through qualifiers but rather than help him, I think it will cost him here.....beat Dancevic in 2,struggled past Bogdanovic in a mammoth match which lasted over 4 hours and went to 24-22 in the 3rd set, in final qualifier he was understandably a little tired but showed great fight to come from 2 sets down to beat Koubek 6-7 3-6 6-3 6-4 6-4.Isner admittedly hasn't done a lot on grass(1-5 on the tour) b ut Isner 2010 looks ready to win some matches on this surface. Should be fresher, stronger on serve and mentally good in tie-breaks. Isner for me. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon A few extra thoughts. Not decided which other bets to go for, and will wait until handicaps etc come out........... Agreed with Smeg on Ferrero. Form is a little worry for Ferrero but you wouldn't get such a price if he was coming in all guns blazing. Watched him against Meffert at Halle, thats my only concern....he made a few errors I wouldn't expect from him. But he's beaten Malisse at Queens last year in 2 sets when he wasn't in the best of form...and ended up reaching the 1/4's at Wimbledon. JCF is a class above in my view. Berankis vs Ball looks interesting......Ball is pretty big at 6/4 even though I'd make Berankis slight favourite. Young guy is on fire recently...winning grass event in Nottingham a few weeks back and cruising through qualifiers at Wimbledon. Ball has also came through qualies beating the likes of Gilles Muller(one dimensional but dangerous when he's serving well). Ball has a big serve, but the fact the Berankis beat Kevin Anderson at Notingham makes me wonder how much an issue that will be for him.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Lots of value in the opening rounds of the Men's draw it seems. At first glance Amalgro is priced as an underdog to beat Seppi. Strange one. Like Smeg said before, because someone is deemed a clay-courter it is concluded they can't beat average players on grass. To be fair, Amalgro isn't as good as Ferrero on grass but surely he's got enough to beat Seppi, who has been in poor form. Kiefer also looks worth a bit of a dabble to beat Ferrer, as does Haase to beat Blake, who perpetually bombs at Wimbledon. I'm also not convinced at all by Monfils on grass and Leonardo Mayer could send him out on his ear. Few more interesting matches as well.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Almagro was injured a few days back though, maybe why his price has drifted a little bit. Seppi is a mug though so I wouldn't know what to do here.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

A few extra thoughts. Not decided which other bets to go for, and will wait until handicaps etc come out........... Agreed with Smeg on Ferrero. Form is a little worry for Ferrero but you wouldn't get such a price if he was coming in all guns blazing. Watched him against Meffert at Halle, thats my only concern....he made a few errors I wouldn't expect from him. But he's beaten Malisse at Queens last year in 2 sets when he wasn't in the best of form...and ended up reaching the 1/4's at Wimbledon. JCF is a class above in my view. Berankis vs Ball looks interesting......Ball is pretty big at 6/4 even though I'd make Berankis slight favourite. Young guy is on fire recently...winning grass event in Nottingham a few weeks back and cruising through qualifiers at Wimbledon. Ball has also came through qualies beating the likes of Gilles Muller(one dimensional but dangerous when he's serving well). Ball has a big serve, but the fact the Berankis beat Kevin Anderson at Notingham makes me wonder how much an issue that will be for him.

yes, i agree, i am pretty worried myself about his form!! i reckon in the hard court season in the US, he was probebly a bit mentally and physically tired after playing and winning so many matches in the south american clay court season!! I don't think he performed as bad at the french open than meets the eye! he beat clay court specialists cuevas and riba who are no world beaters but he still took care of them!! and losing to ginepri in 5 sets (was 2-0 down) isn't as bad an effort as it looks as bobby ginepri actually can play some great tennis when he turns on the style and can put it up to the vast majority of the top players....he is not an ex- grand slam semi-finalist for nothing!! there is one stat that i found quite surprising when i checked it today!! ferrero has never been past the 3rd round of the french open since he won it in 2003!!! the mosquito himself has regularly been knocked out at the first, second and 3rd round since then!! probably because the both strength in depth and quality in the men's game has improved so much since those lull pre-federer years but also because of players move so much better these days and the emergence of the power players.....the soderlings and berdychs of this world......they can hit through the defense of a guy like ferrero!! so whats actually happened is ferrero has adapted his game since then and in my opinion his best surface is clearly grass!! over the last 3 years he has got to the quarter finals twice and he retired injured against zverev in the second round in 2008! he's also reached the 4th round twice! he's not the most powerful player in the world but on the grass he can feed off the pace of his opponent and he possesses great accuracy and control over his groundstrokes particularly his backhand down the line! he doesn't have to try and hit players off the court as he doesnt have the power! and of course he hasn't lost his mental toghness since his prime...thats where i feel he can really beat malisse....by just being so solid and not giving him any free points....as malisse is bound to give a few! of course i am worried about his very poor performance against meffert 2 weeks ago....but it's not enough reason for me to turn down this underdog price of 5-4!! he looked very disinterested alright but one would think that at 30 years old he would realise that he hasn't much more chances to perform well at the most prestigious tennis event in the world...one that he has always thrived in, a tournament that he has a lot of points to defend so....i would have to expect a good pro like ferrero to get his mind right and be motivated and mentally prepared!! of course i would love to have inside information on the guy and his mental frame at the mo but i don't and thats why we call it gambling but i just cant turn down the 5-4!!!! i wish you luck what ever you decide!!!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Agreed. Ferrero is drifting at most bookies but still available at 13/10 with Boyles, will take it. J C Ferrero to beat Malisse @ 13/10 (Boyles:5/10) Looks like good value, even though JCF's displays in majors has been a bit disappointing this year. Still feel he's a better player than Malisse, just hope he's motivated for this. Worth a punt anyway.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Luczak looks pretty appealing against Robredo as an underdog I think. Robredo has a knack of playing well out of the blue though....and I dunno if I trust Luczak to finish the job. Price looks quite good though.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Lots of value in the opening rounds of the Men's draw it seems. At first glance Amalgro is priced as an underdog to beat Seppi. Strange one. Like Smeg said before, because someone is deemed a clay-courter it is concluded they can't beat average players on grass. To be fair, Amalgro isn't as good as Ferrero on grass but surely he's got enough to beat Seppi, who has been in poor form. Kiefer also looks worth a bit of a dabble to beat Ferrer, as does Haase to beat Blake, who perpetually bombs at Wimbledon. I'm also not convinced at all by Monfils on grass and Leonardo Mayer could send him out on his ear. Few more interesting matches as well.

yes i have to agree with slider24 on almagro!! i really do not understand how paddy power made him 11-10 to beat seppi last night!! i had to back it!! i know that he retired injured against istomin and that is a worry but my experience of almagro is that if he's not physically fit he will retire (especially in a best of 5 set format) and you will get your money back!! for me almagro has really emerged as one of the best players in the world!!at his best , he is top ten i reckon but his inconsistency over the year is what lets him down!! but it has to be said that he has saved his horror performances and inconsistency for the smaller tournaments and has generally brought his A-game to the grand slams over the last 2 years or so and especially in 2010! he reached the 4th round of the australian open (a tournament he went into in awful form) and was very unlucky to lose to tsonga in 5 sets! in the french this year he was awesome in patches, particularly against verdasco and he probably gave nadal his sternest test in the whole tournament! of course grass is probably his weakest surface, but i think his game isn't that dissimilar to gasquet (who has excelled on grass) and he has improved his movement this year as in the past he probably struggled with the low bounce on grass and needed more time to set up his vicious groundstrokes (that backhand is a shot of beauty)! but he'smoviong better these days and he also has a big serve which should be a big weapon for him on this surface! another reason i like this bet is that almagro has become mentally very tough and a great fighter on court!! indeed, he proved that last year in wimbledon coming back from two sets down against juan monaco to win 8-6 in d fifth and then he beat karol beck ib 5 sets too before finding soderling too good and i think almagro is better this year and more confident...i get the impression he really believes that he is one odf the best players in the world and should be contesting at the business end of grand slams! his opponent seppi actually has a good record at wimbledon....he reached the 4th round in 2008 and the 3rd round last year.... yet i have serious doubts about his mental strength and his self-confidence seems particularly low at the moment!! he has had a very por year so far and even on the grass court season which should be one that he would relish , he lost to tomic and marchenko....that hardly inspires confidence for me.....the few times i saw him this year,he's been pretty error strewn at times and his forehand is letting him down a bit!! he has one of the weakest second serve in the top 100 and most importantly he's getting very tight in the important moments of matches........i expect almagro to play the big points well if this turns into a marathon!! he certainly has the talent to cause almagro a lot of problems....if he plays his best tennis , he knows how to play the grass ...he's got good touch, movement on the surface and like ferrero likes to feed off pace instead of generating it himself (tends to overhit his forehand) and its worth noticing that almagro rarely comes into a grand slam all guns blazing.....he almost always is involved in a 5 setter and i can see this one being quite similar!! but i think almagro is much more mentally tough and will be the better man in the clutch moments against a player who is not playing to his ability right now and there are no signs of that changing anytime soon!! so if almagro is fit and motivated , i can only see him winning!! i'm sure he'll be motivated.....the fitness is the worry but with money back for retirements it is really worth backing nicolas on this one!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon so that means i'm tipping nicolas almagro to beat andreas seppi at evens with paddypower 2 points for the reasons i have just said above!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

Lots of value in the opening rounds of the Men's draw it seems. At first glance Amalgro is priced as an underdog to beat Seppi. Strange one. Like Smeg said before, because someone is deemed a clay-courter it is concluded they can't beat average players on grass. To be fair, Amalgro isn't as good as Ferrero on grass but surely he's got enough to beat Seppi, who has been in poor form. Kiefer also looks worth a bit of a dabble to beat Ferrer, as does Haase to beat Blake, who perpetually bombs at Wimbledon. I'm also not convinced at all by Monfils on grass and Leonardo Mayer could send him out on his ear. Few more interesting matches as well.

yeah agree with ya on those!! i really like haase to beat blake at 7-4, and mayer is a value price at 5-2 coz as you say monfils is like a duck out of water on the grass!! don't really like kiefer to beat ferrer....ferrer has a decent record at wimbledon and after a disappointing french open i would expect a man like him to come back all guns blazing ready for a good tournament!! but we'll see, kiefer certainly has loads of ability so ya never know

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon These are the matches in the first round that stand out to me the most in terms of prices and possible bets. Will do more research but these ones are under consideration. - Peter Luczak has to be considered against Tommy Robredo at 2.20. Robredo's in rotten form and has lost in R1 of all Slams this year. Luczak got to the quarters of s'Hertogenbosch and has a big enough serve to hold his own. - Quite fancy Igor Kunitsyn to take a set off Viktor Troicki. Both men out of form but Kunitysn is too big at 4.50. Troick fades in and out of matches and is on a horrible run at present. - Stan Wawrinka and Denis Istomin screams overs. Wawrinka may get the better of the Uzbek but I can see it being tight. - Daniel Brands at 2.20 against Igor Andreev. The Russian has been injured and hasn't had much prep before this match. Brands took a set off Xavier Malisse in s'Hertogenbosch in R2 - limited player but has a good powerful attack and did play well against Tsonga in Roland Garros. - Agree with slider24, Leo Mayer is too big at 3.25 against Gael Monfils, whose head is all over the place at the moment. Really dangerous match for Monfils. - Flo Mayer, if he's fit, could easily take a set off Marin Cilic. Not convinced at all by Cilic on grass and Mayer's the sort of opponent who can play really well for a set. - Michael Berrer has the game for grass with his serve and volley tactics. Quite wary of Illya Marchenko as he's up and coming but I reckon odds on Berrer are good at 1.83. Did well on faster courts earlier in the year. - Going to disagree with IAmGooner here, not sure about John Isner. Has played no grass event ahead of this tournament and Mahut leads H2H. Isner's got a bad record on grass (W1 L5 I think) and ball may bounce to low for him. Mahut's unreliable though, but at 2.10 is worth a thought. Haven't taken any of these, just thought I'd throw a few early thoughts out there...

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon What can I say mate, I love big John Isner..........;).....been a lucky player over the last year for me. Might be wrong but I can't see him losing to Mahut even though he has far less pedigree on grass. Don't think Mahut is playing quite as well as he was a few years back when he proved tricky for many top guys on grass. And alot of people(me included) were doubtful about Isner transferring his game to clay and he did pretty well I thought. Big serve, forehand and mental strength are great attributes on every surface.........:ok....anyway he's drifted below the price I took him at earlier, at this point I wouldn't take it. Agree with all of you on Leo Mayer. Looks too big against Monfils....though I'm not sure what happened to him against Robert last week, bad loss there. Even though Mayer hasn't done alot on grass, a bit like Isner, I can see his game getting him results on the surface. Might be some nice market available in this game. Also looks to be some nice double material for round one...... Davydenko to beat Anderson.......2/5 at most places......Davy hates the grass but struggle to see Anderson winning in a 5 set match. Davydenko will kill him in most rallies and expose his movement. I also struggle to see Ferrer losing to Kiefer right now. Grass not his best surface but Kiefer still not back to his best. Montanes is 2/5 to beat Lorenzi....maybe bit short though......simply a better player though I'd probably avoid Montanes in a rd 1 match. Think Dushevina can cause Schiavone problems aswell, Schiavone lost to Cirstea on grass this week so maybe not best prepared after winning th French. Dushevina can play well at times though bit of a choker closing out matches. Mattek-Sands looks a pretty good price to beat Sprem aswell at 5/6. Came through qualies, had a bit of a struggle aswell but thought she'd be a slight fave here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon

What can I say mate, I love big John Isner..........;).....been a lucky player over the last year for me. Might be wrong but I can't see him losing to Mahut even though he has far less pedigree on grass. Don't think Mahut is playing quite as well as he was a few years back when he proved tricky for many top guys on grass. And alot of people(me included) were doubtful about Isner transferring his game to clay and he did pretty well I thought. Big serve, forehand and mental strength are great attributes on every surface.........:ok....anyway he's drifted below the price I took him at earlier, at this point I wouldn't take it. Agree with all of you on Leo Mayer. Looks too big against Monfils....though I'm not sure what happened to him against Robert last week, bad loss there. Even though Mayer hasn't done alot on grass, a bit like Isner, I can see his game getting him results on the surface. Might be some nice market available in this game. Also looks to be some nice double material for round one...... Davydenko to beat Anderson.......2/5 at most places......Davy hates the grass but struggle to see Anderson winning in a 5 set match. Davydenko will kill him in most rallies and expose his movement. I also struggle to see Ferrer losing to Kiefer right now. Grass not his best surface but Kiefer still not back to his best. Montanes is 2/5 to beat Lorenzi....maybe bit short though......simply a better player though I'd probably avoid Montanes in a rd 1 match. Think Dushevina can cause Schiavone problems aswell, Schiavone lost to Cirstea on grass this week so maybe not best prepared after winning th French. Dushevina can play well at times though bit of a choker closing out matches. Mattek-Sands looks a pretty good price to beat Sprem aswell at 5/6. Came through qualies, had a bit of a struggle aswell but thought she'd be a slight fave here.

Yeah I'm a big fan of big John too, have charted his career from Challenger level, not often you get a 6'9' player! He's won me a lot of cash too but normally he prepares maticulously before a Slam. Did a few clay events before Roland Garros. Odd because like you, I think he's got scope on the grass because of his serve. Ferrer does look a bet. Researched all the seeds' record at SWI9 and Ferrer always gets past the first round and has made R16 before. Kiefer's dangerous but over five sets? Not sure he can last. Agree on Davydenko too, mainly because Anderson's unfit! Another one that could be roll-up material is Thomaz Bellucci. Saw him two years ago at Wimbers against Simon Stadler and looked a prospect then. Everyone says he's a clay expert but has made the final of an indoor hard court, probably the closest surface you can get pace-wise to grass. He's 1.44 to beat Ricardo Mello, who is not a grass court player at all. Neither has played on the green stuff this year, Bellucci surely a better player...

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Yes agreed Bellucci certainly looks like another solid match. Another player I like aswell. Hope these prices don't drift by the time every market is released, don't want to put too many bets on right now until I see handicaps/overs/under etc........getting restless though!!...:ok Hopefully we are all profitable over the next few weeks.

[burf]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Surely Keifer at around 2.62 vs Ferrer is also worth some thought...

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Have a few fears that some of these prices will disappear, so I'm taking a few selections before the handicaps come out. First off, I'm going to go with the confidence of smeg and IAG on Juan Carlos Ferrero. I do have some doubts over the Spaniard but I have more over Malisse, especially on his fitness. I can't see him playing at a high enough level to beat Ferrero over four or five sets. Ferrero will need to play really badly if he's to lose in straight sets. I've taken the 2.22 on offer with Pinnacle as Malisse does have a sneaky habit of retiring in Slam matches. I'm looking at the 2.37 Ladbrokes have on offer on Peter Luczak and I think that's far too big on the Australian. I just can't see where Tommy Robredo is going to get a win from at present. He's on horrid run of form, shown by a terrible loss to Simon Greul (6-1 6-2) in s'Hertogenbosch. He's struggling on serve, can't seem to find any rhythm and has bombed out of both Slams in R1 to Santiago Giraldo and Viktor Troicki. Normally I'd stay away from Luczak - especially as he has a 2-0 H2H deficit to Robredo *(meetings on clay in 2005 and 2009) - but he had a good result against Marcos Baghdatis last week, winning 7-5 6-1. He's got a decent serve and can volley - in fact, a lot of his game is based on attacking the net. Doesn't really trouble top players often but Robredo's on the downswing. I'm going more against Robredo but I'm happy to take the price of 2.37. No retirement cover, but hopefully that's not needed. Small stakes. Another dog that I like is Daniel Brands. He takes on Igor Andreev, who he's never faced before. Andreev is returning from injury and hasn't had any prep before Wimbledon. Conversely, Brands played last week in s'Hertogenbosch. Beat Rameez Junaid (who he should have beaten) before taking a set off Malisse. Both men are probably best suited to clay - Brands showed that by taking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to five in Roland Garros - but at least the German has a bit of grass court experience behind him. Andreev can be such an unpredictable player when not on clay, I can't back him on quicker surfaces. Can lose the plot very easily. Streaky player too and offers gifts on serve. Brands is no world beater but I can't see 2.20 with Stan James getting any bigger so I'll take a small play on that. Small stakes as all of these carry a couple of doubts, but I feel they are all worth a play. My selections, therefore, are: - Juan Carlos Ferrero at 2.22 with Pinnacle (3/10) - Peter Luczak at 2.37 with Ladbrokes (2/10) - Daniel Brands at 2.20 with Stan James (2/10)

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon i have been studying all day and have finally come up with a few bets that i am happy with!! i dont have time to explain them now but i will explain them tomorro! i am only posting them now because i have a feeling the prices might change by tomorro! 1) barrois-kulikova double at 4-5 with skybet 3 points! 2)lucie hradecka to beat lepchenko at 8-13 skybet 2 points 3)nara to beat ducque marino 8-15 bet365 3 points 4)jarrko niemenen to beat stefan koubek at 4-7 skybet 2 points 5)david ferrer to beat kiefer at 4-7 titanbet 6)petkovic to beat chakvetadze at 8-13 skybet 2 points 7)alexandra wozniak to beat danillidou 8-11 skybet 1 point 8)makarova to beat szavay at 8-13 wbx2 points 9)john isner to beat mahut 8-11 skybet 10)rodionova to beat keothavong at 4-6 wbx 3 points 11)wawrinka to beat istomin at 4-7 skybet 2 points i will give reasons tomorro....just dont have time now!!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Janko Tipsarevic v Arnaud Clement screams overs. They met last week in Hertzhog... and Tipsa won 2-1 and he leads h2h 2-0 but played a final on saturday. Lots of tennis lately and Clement have some record through the years on grass. Just can't think this is going under whatever the line is. Ramon Delgado v Teimuraz Gabashvili what the hell is this, is bet365 joking with me? Gaba to beat veteran from Paraguay who lost to austrian Martin Fischer in qualifying but got a lucky loser probably? Gaba had a great run in Paris slam getting through qualies easy, beating Roddick and losing after to Melzer but took a set of him. wtf? Last week he made it to semi final in Lugano losing to Wawrinka 2-1. Delgado have'nt had any warm up on grass but not Gaba either but so what, he wins this awfully easy. And best part is 1.66 on Gaba and Gaba 3-0 set 4.00. Delgado have hardly played any on atp tour this year. He turned pro 15 years ago and it was a loooong time since he got past his expiration date. In his 15 years as pro his grass record reads 2-8. Says more then enough. Gaba has no outstanding record on grass either with 1-7 but I don't think his opponent 33 years old will be any problem. He showed great form on clay. Let's see if Gaba has something to say on grass. Mikhail Youzhny v Dudi Sela If Sela beat Djoker in Wimbledon last year and Youzhny in Davis cup 3-1 and played a lot better then Youhzny on grass in Queens compared to Youh in Halle I see him as winner here. Sela 2.75 I agree about JC-Ferrero so I'm all over him and also Luczak because I can see Robredo fall down more on the ranking and the australian are better now.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon ivan dodig to beat oscar hernandez 3-0 10-11 bet365 1 point! i think this is really worth the punt!! hernandez really really hates the grass!! the veteran has never won a match at wimbledon in 6 tries and only ever won one set!! i get the feeling that he just shows up for the pay check and goes through the motions!! last year he produced a horrible display in the first round losing 6-0,6-0,6-3 to leonardo mayer who is by no means at home on the grass himself!! that is simply a disgraceful scoreline to lose a match on a grass court surface and stinks of disinterest! he never has produced the goods on grass and i don't see how he's going to do it now in the autumn of his career!! incredibly last year the bookies were asleep and had mayer at a gift price of 8-15 in boyles before it shortened fairly lively!! this year they are shrewd enough to make dodig huge favourite at best price 1-7! however, the straight sets victory at 10-11 is a more appealing bet!! dodig has played some decent stuff this year at times! he qualified for the australian open and came back from 2 sets down to beat ferrero in the first round! then he lost in 5 sets to koubek!! dodig is no world beater but he still did well to qualify as he beat some good players to get here.....beating zemjla is a good result and coming back from 2 sets down to beat grass court specialist peya also shows a lot of heart and will give him plenty of confidence coming into the first round!! he's already won a first round match in a grand slam (beat ferrero from 2 sets down in the aussie open) and he shouldn't really be scared of this stage!! he's a solid enough player with a decent serve and a good return, he can slice well...whcih hernandez can't .....but honestly i am more backing against hernandez to win a set than dodig to win 3-0!! all dodig needs to do is play solid, cut down the errors and keep his concentration and he should win this one easy!!! even as it is, hernandez isn't even playing good tennis on his favourite surface clay most recently losing in straight sets to the likes guez and aguilar and bachinger in the run in to this tournament so he's very much a man on the downswing and it would be very surprising to see this grass hater nick a set or two in this match!! it's all in dodig's hands!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon jaarkko nieminen to beat stefan koubek at 4-7 skybet 3 points! i will start explaining yesterdays tips now!! basically i think this is a value price because i really fancy jaarko to win this one!! nieminen has a 4 -1 head to head winning record against koubek which is a good sign!! they are both lefties with doble handed backhands so the 'leftie' advantage which koubek has oftenn highlighted (part of the reason he has a winning record against moya as moya has a poor backhand) has been cancelled out against jaarko!! basically, i think jaarko is just capable od a higher level than stefan!! jaarko has had plenty of injury problems and plus his army service duties have contributed to the drop in his rankings but he is still a quality player whio generally saves his best tennis for the grand slams!! lets not forget that this is a man who has reached the quarter finals of 3 different grand slams and not too many players on tour can make that claim...evn some of the top players!!! he's been a quarter finalist at wimbledon too and he seems to like the grass.....he's also got some unlucky early draws which have maybe hindered hios progress in other years (close 5 set losses to henman and most recently cilic in 2008) but he will really feel that koubek....a man he knows how to beat is a good draw for him! stefan did well in the qualifiers getting to the third round but actually he is not here legitimately as he lost to mahut in the final round of qualifying! mahut did have to some back from two sets behind so it does show that koubek has some form! however, he is well past his best and though he does save his best tennis for the slams these days....grass is his weakest surface....since 1999 he has never been past the second round which is a very unimpressive statistic for me!! nieminen is much more comfortable on the surface..... and his form this year has been solid if not spectacular (a semi-final place in delray beach and a challenger victory against dolgopolov in the final in morroco the highlights) but at leats he has stayed injury free and he should relish the return to the grass at wimbledon a place where he has played some of his best tennis!! nthe price will probably change because nieminen should be a much bigger favourite than he is so get on now!!!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Gabashvili 1.833 @ Sportingbet What is the bookies thinking? Gaba beats Delgado any time and still it's this high.

[eXpendable]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon OOP for monday is out. http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/schedule/index.html

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon kulikova-barrois double at 4-5 skybet 3 points! kulikova is playing melanie south and is basically a class above to be fair! kulikova has had a decent year....she reached the quarterfinals at dubai (the fastest non-grass surface) beating kuznetsova and kirilenko before falling to radwanska in 3 sets! most recently on the clay she took a set off sharapova in strasbourg and perhaps more impressively she pushed french open champion schiavone all the way in a tight 3 setter in the first round! she likes the grass and reached the 3rd round at wimbledon last year beating kleybanova on the way!! my only concern about her is that she retired injured against rybarikova in nottingham while she was a set up....but she probably wouldn't play here if she wasn't fit and ready so i'm willing to take a chance on her because clearly her form is good! south on the other hand is a feisty competitor who is very much at home on the grass....she took a set off chakvetadze a few weeks ago...but her form this year overall is pretty patchy...she's still abit over weight and her movement and retrieval skills won't be up to the level needed against an agressive opponent like kulikova! and even if it is close she also got beaten in the first round at wimbledon in an error strewn performance against mathilde johannson last year so it wouldnt surprise me if the nerves get to her again in the tight moments here! barrois is in good form right now! she reached the final at strasbourg a few weeks ago losing to sharapova in the final! she reached the quarters at hertogenbosch beating czink and bammer on the way before giving henin a tough match but ultimatley losing in straights! she has all the qualities to play good tennis on grass...she is aggresive, can plays the slice very well, like to take the ball early and can attack the net! last year she lost to zheng in 2 tie-breaks....but this year she ahs an easier job! korytseva,her opponent, is in poor form at the moment!! she was hemmered most recently by kleybanova in the french open, and had a string of poor results before that!! she has never won a match at wimbledon....and is particularly poor on grass...i saw her a few years ago against wozniak and she was very frustrated!! she has a good forehand but her backhand is very dodgy and tends to break down especially when she hasn't much time on it!! she did beat barrois earlier on in the year in miami....but barrois was in very poor form at the time and is a completely different proposition in her current form and on this urface...so i can only see a barrois victory!! and once again i reckon the prices will change so get on now!!