AFL Rd. 11.

[ozgamer]

Latest from CB @ Mon ~ 2.30pm EST: Opening prices came out early and are bracketed. ----------------------------------- RICHMOND ----- 6.05(6.50) ------ +37.5 ST KILDA ----- 1.13(1.11) ------- -37.5 CARLTON ------ 1.34(1.35) ------ -20.5 MELBOURNE ---- 3.29(3.18) ------ +20.5 ADELAIDE ----- 3.17(2.55) ------- +19.5 FREMANTLE ---- 1.36(1.50) ------ -19.5 NTH MELB ----- 2.39(2.35) ------ +10.5 BRISBANE ----- 1.58(1.58) ------ -10.5 WEST COAST --- 6.70(6.25) ------ +40.5 GEELONG ------ 1.11(1.12) ------- -40.5 SYDNEY ------- 1.76(1.78) ------- -4.5 ESSENDON ----- 2.07(2.02) ------- +4.5 HAWTHORN ----- 1.35(1.35) ------ -20.5 PORT ADEL ---- 3.29(3.18) ------- +20.5 COLLINGWOOD -- 1.68(1.50) ------ -6.5 W BULLDOGS --- 2.20(1.50) ------- +6.5 ----------------------------------- I like Port and maybe the Doggies. Both have drifted from their SP already. Possibly Essendon if they keep drifting. Hoping Brogan comes back in with a couple others. Hawks will lose Brown and possibly Franklin. Port have a good record over the Hawks and the loss to Richmond should have them switched on for this. They are 2/4 on the road this year beating similar to worse opponents. Even the 20.5 head start is hard to ignore so Port +20.5 it is. Doggies could be worth a bite tho I'd be more happy to get longer than the current price. The fav has lost the last 3 H2H between these 2 and I think the prices should be closer. ----------------------------------- Favs are @ 62.5% this year (50/80) Winning - lines/+ lines I have @ 47.5%/52.5% Any thoughts as to whether the current trends will change? I would expect a few rounds of surprises here and there but this has been a bizarro season.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Agree with Port, oz. Unfortunately only the +18.5 for me, but still enough to have a dip at...down at Launceston, Hawks lost last lots away from home. As bad as Tigers are (not taking too much notice of last week), still not a lot to show Saints can kick enough to cover upwards of 6 goals. Essendon have relative numbers to St. Kilda and won by 35...Not sure Saints can kick 19.9 every week. Under 180...not going to get that number tho. Tempted by Melbourne, but would like just a couple more points. (Learnt my lesson from ignoring my numbers and using my brain last week!:eyes :D ) The loss to the Eagles @ MCG is tough to swallow... Blues will score more than Eagles did...Melbourne have allowed 61, 59, 57 & 57 I50's in last 4 games, just may not be able to keep up. Gotta like Freo too I think...18.5 a chance somewhere? Crows win over Brisbane was a bit of a joke, as I said, they gave up 58 I50's...Freo have the 3rd best goals/I50 in the last 4 games...even on the road they are 3rd best shots/I50 on the season...should be able to kick a score. Freo -18.5 Got it. May be a a decent 'over' shout too, but will wait and see. Geelong win, but 40 is a lot...too many? Obviously they won BIG @ Brisbane, but... WC just can't score. Best left alone, imho. Kangas/Bris is another tough game to get a winner I reckon, but one way or the other there will be points. Will be happy to wait for an 'over' in this one...relatively high number, so reasonably confident the books will play along! :ok Essendon win don't they? No Fletcher...what, is Jesse White going to kick a bag??!! Find it hard to believe they are 'dogs...any chance of 2.20?! They've had an amazing last 5 games...from someone who couldn't score to the the NUMBER 1 team for goals/I50 in their last 5 games!! Bombers were down in some key numbers last week, but Sydney haven't been great at winning contested ball all year, and have dropped off further in the last 4. (3rd worst...in fact THE worst when taking into account for/agaisnt) They have had an uncanny ability to match I50's...until last week, 40-55 to, an improving I agree, Hawthorn midfield...but missing key elements at both ends is going to hurt here. Bombers not quite travelling as well as Freo, but the Dockers SMASHED Swans at home. Ess won easily here last year at about the same price, like I said, hoping for 2.20, but will be happy to take them whatever... Dogs/Pies...who knows. Doggies numbers are still surprisingly good...Pies have suddenly stopped winning I50's, and scoring, and Dogs defense is absolutely there strong point. First game was even I50's, and only 6 more shots for a 6 goal win...Would have loved Dogs @ 2.40ish...I'd still have to say Pies are legit favs, but... :cheers

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Sorry...Port! :D Not a lot of road form to go on...Matched it with WC and realistically were all over Ess and Melbourne... ...have been 'dogs of 2.50 or more in the last 4 meetings...won 3 SU (2 of the 3 away from home)...lost another by 15...won their last meeting @ MCG SU. Short handed that day for sure, but Franklin kicked 3.3, and Williams was important (10 marks!)... ...as oz said, Brogan would be a MASSIVE in here... ...Hawks not suited to MCG, 6 games this year...3/3, just 1 win by more than 3 points!!...first game where Melbourne came out flat. Almost unbelievably, Hawks have won just 3 of their last 9 games overall...again, just one by more than 3!!! :eek Port midfield actually have the advantage last 4...they have struggled up forward without Tredrea...and Hawks have actually shown something down back, but came back to earth last week v. a poor Swans (minus Bradshaw) Port massive chance. 3 goals start is too much. :beer

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Quote: Freo -18.5 Got it. May be a a decent 'over' shout too, but will wait and see. I see Freo are now into -16.5. Curious, for mine, as like Taza, my thinking is Freo should win this reasonably comfortably. Can the market be putting too much store on the emotion of TE's last game and/or do people think Adl's 3 quarters of effort last week was a corner turner? Maybe yes to both. The 4th qtr last week showed probably where Adl really is at atm, so fully expect Freo to replicate St K's result.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Freo down to -17.5...on the back of Edwards' "farewell game"? :\ Who cares...he obviously doesn't! :lol [EDIT: I posted before I saw saintg1's post. Same page has to be a good thing mate. :ok ] Mundy most DT points over Reilly and Johncock (2.65) Averages are all tight (as you'd expect, given that's how they'd match them up I guess! :D), but Mundy just 3 games

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Am tempted by the following speculative dabble (all at the line): Freo (-16.5) into Saints (-36.5) into Bne (-12.5) into Geelong (-39.5) into Port (+17.5) @ 26.09 Sportsbet. Rationale? Freo purely on form; Saints appear to have got over the fact they cant hang around waiting for NR to return, and have shown to themselves they can win a game or two. Their last two final quarters have been super strong. Richmond will be off a massive high and the change from the monsoon in Adl to the cacoon of Etihad will have an effect (running out a game in a swimming pool surely would zap some leg strength); Bne have Brennan back which will add a lot. Their big 2 kicked some form last week so I am counting on their injuries being under control (+ the fact North are awful); WC cant score and have defensive weaknesses and Geelong is...well Geelong; Port have Motlop and Brogan back against a Buddy and Brown-less Hawks, together with a good record against Hawthorn and the assumption that not even Port can play as badly again as they did last week. A few assumptions and I'm mindful of Taza's cautionary note re the size of the line in the Saints and Geelong games (my interest is based on the quality gap between them and their respective opponents). As small stake exotic if ever there was one?:hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Horrible over-rounds by the...:unsure ...

There's the old Monty Python one where the guy could only pronounce words starting with a 'C' with a 'B' instead (like colour>"bolour"). Then when he was advised to solve dilemma by just thinking of 'C' words as starting with a 'K' instead, he promptly said to himself "oh, what a silly bunt". :lol I also suspect Collingwood will win, so I imagine that will further help Ball's chances? appears a well thought out play, Taza. :clap

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Whispers around that Ellis will be a late out for the hawks and Muston to take his spot. Makes the +17.5 Port look even more enticing.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

appears a well thought out play' date=' Taza. :clap[/quote'] Are you suggesting that most aren't? :unsure :lol Got Essendon (2.25) @ Pinnacle...still 2.24. Way over, esp. given most Aust books are now 2.10 or tighter. :ok Winderlich DT points over Hille/J.Bolton (2.70) Had this one pointed out to me, but more than happy to go with it. Bolton just looks out-matched for a start. Has topped 95 just once all season (v. Richmond), and hasn't topped 85 in his last 5 games (Av. 76.8) Winderlich has hit some great form after starting the year slowly (v. some good teams who restrict DT points too), but 117, 104, 45, 112, 118 last 5... ...the 45 being v. St. Kilda, and inc. 5 FA's (-15 right there) Hille pretty much the opposite...113, 57, 97, 156, 71 last 5... ...the 156 came v. Richmond, up against Angus Graham and Tyrone Vickery!! The 113 was v. Hawthorn, in Renouf's first game off a spell...and even the 97 inc. 4 goals. To top it off, the last 2 times the Bombers have played the SCG, Winderlich has scored 115 and 103. [bolton 71 and 68...Hille 72 in one game here] Winderlich should be favoured at the very least. :ok Centebet have opened with a higher St. K/Richmond total than I expected...may be some hope of gettinga 180 for the under...

[The Doc]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Sydney has been very wet during the week, and the SCG could be boggy, could slow down Essendon's running style and suit the Swans, and Jude Bolton might rack up plenty of tackles with lots of stoppages expected with the boggy track.

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Well there you go...Saints competent but Freo and Bne decide to play like dogs (and the emotion of TE's last game clearly had an impact - duh!). Not that it needed confirming, but AFL punting continues to be a fascinating challenge. :\ :wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Tell me, saintg1...on an 0-5 run myself...:wall Frustrating game in Adelaide indeed...SMASHED Freo 65-45 I50's, but still only had 25 shots...and won't kick 16.9 for the rest of the year... ...and Taylor Walker won't kick 3 goals like that for the rest of his life. The Sydney/Ess total opened at a rediculously low 162.5...up a couple of points now, but still low... ...some rain about I know... OVER 164.5 (1.90) A few posts on BF saying the weather is fine atm...no rain, plenty of sun over the last couple of days, and looks like staying that way for most of the day (apparently!)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Jude Bolton might rack up plenty of tackles with lots of stoppages expected with the boggy track.

Good call Doc. :cheers Winderlich copped the dreaded Nick Smith tag, but it wouldn't have mattered given Bolton's 150!! :eek Luckily Ball's getting the job done very easily indeed to almost salvage another pretty ordinary weekend. :\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

OVER 164.5 (1.90) A few posts on BF saying the weather is fine atm...no rain, plenty of sun over the last couple of days, and looks like staying that way for most of the day (apparently!)

Tailed you on this one, mate! :ok Also took some Under 168.5 @ 3.75 Bet365 during LQ :\.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Luckily Ball's getting the job done very easily indeed to almost salvage another pretty ordinary weekend. :\

Considering Higgins got injured and Gia who is hopeless already was wasting his time on Heath Shaw. It's a win nonetheless :ok