IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10

[luegofuego]

Hi guys, I'm new to the forum and very very new to football handicapping aswell. I'm trying to learn as much as I can about it and would appreciate all the comments I can get. Where does my logic break down? What factors am I understating, which am I overstating? Really grateful for all input. I'll post more write-ups in the future if people don't mind too much. IFK GÖTEBORG (home record this season: 2-2-2) - ÖREBRO (away record this season: 3-0-3) 1:2.04, X:3.49, 2:4.34 IFK is of course the best team in the league historically with their Svennis-backed Champions League trophy and what not, but they just havent been performing at all this season despite grabbing the silver last season. Looking at past odds, they seem to be consistently overpriced with a lot of -300 type odds at home field ending up as draws. They're coming off a very dissapointing performance where they undeservingly managed to squeeze out a 0-0 results vs derby rivals GAIS. That was a very rough game with five yellows dealt to IFK which resulted in a suspension for Sebastian Eriksson and an injury for Alansson which gives youngsters Tobias Sana and Tuomo Turunen a chance to show off. There has been questions about the defensive capabilities of Sano however and that could prove fatal against an aggressive opponent like Örebro. Also of note is the refurbished pitch on Gamla Ullevi - the old one was pretty much the joke of the town - that actually might LESSEN IFKs home field advantage since they were a lot more accustomed to the old, unique (uniquelly terrible) pitch than the away teams. Örebro is coming off a well played 1-0 win at home vs Djurgården (own goal for Djurgården technically, but Örebro looked very impressive) after a hard fought 1-2 loss vs serie monsters Helsingborg. Örebros away wins this season have all been against less than stellar competition, but it's not hard to argue IFK is a less than stellar team themselves at current form. Örebro have had their best performance in years this season, finding themselves at the number three spot, albeit a far cry from the two top teams, 6 points away from Malmö FF and ELEVEN points from leaders Helsingborg. It's close between them and the lagging teams however, and even a league bronze would be an amazing performance that should be more than enough motivation this close to the break for the world cup. It would be stupid to discount IFK though since they are still probably the best team in the league when they're in peak form, but even money against a team with a very impressive season and presumably much better current morale makes them a bad bet. I really like Örebro at 4.34 here.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10 Hi Luegofuego.Firstly welcome to the forum.There's absolutely nothing wrong with your reasoning and you seem to have a good knowledge of this league.That's what tipping is all about,finding value in a price based on team news,stats,form,weather,pitches,home vs away etc.You have put a perfectly good arguement as to why you think there's value in the Orebro price.Just one bit of advice I would give is to always respect the home team and I like to cover the draw option when backing an away team.So you could put most of your money on Orebro at 4.34 and a little bit on the draw at 3.49 to get some or all of your money back in the event of stalemate...Looking forward to reading more of your posts....

[Ricardinho]

Re: IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10 IFK Göteborg is far from being the best team in Swedish Leauge, they have no playing style, they cheat with taxes, they move posts etc And about this match, was rather boring i nearly felt asleep, Örebro was closer to win than Göteborg

[luckotheoirish]

Re: IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10

IFK Göteborg is far from being the best team in Swedish Leauge, they have no playing style, they cheat with taxes, they move posts etc And about this match, was rather boring i nearly felt asleep, Örebro was closer to win than Göteborg

He did say HISTORICALLY...

[Ricardinho]

Re: IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10 Still Malmö FF got the best history so he had wrong once again :) :clap

[luegofuego]

Re: IFK Göteborg - Örebro 13/05/10 lol biased much? i doubt anyone cares how "garbage" you think IFK is, fact is they've got the champions league trophy and a hard fought silver last year. what a pointless argument.