Gunkey's flat thread 2010

[Gunkey]

Well according to some comments on my first thread last week, it’s more advisable apparently for me to set up my own flat thread, with statistics and profit/loss etc. So here it is.

Today I’m going each-way on the 10/3 on offer by BETFRED for Super Sleuth in the 4.00 at Goodwood. My reasoning is that I think she’s the best horse in the race having finished ahead of Rainbow View when third coming from a fair way back in the guineas. She ran well first time out last year, just going down by a head and if she’s tuned up for today I think she’s worth a try.

Although I had a couple of bets on the other thread, I’ll start on here anew as it’s a new thread so we can keep a check of how we do… if that’s ok?

So, bet 1 = £100 each-way on Super Sleuth @ 10/3 (best odds guaranteed).

Good luck to you all today!

[Kithanga]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Good luck Gunkey

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Thank you for the message Kithanga. Well the first bet of the thread was not a total loss finishing 3^rd and saving most of the money so we’re happy enough with that kind of start. We're going to have half-stakes, so £50 each-way on Dickie Le Davoir in the 5.25 at Hamilton; 8/1 is widely available. This horse has a good record when dropped in class and our only concern is whether he feels like running or not, as he is moodier than my dad. Good luck!

[Franklyn]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Non Runner :)

[diamond1924]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 how moody is your dad? non runner

[DM99]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Wondering if you would follow up on your promise to post your picks. Always good to see some more tipsters on here. And it is a bit of fun reading posts made by a woman because they tend to read something like "picnics and flowers and unicorns and shopping and handbags..." :lol Good luck!

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Hey all, Thanks for your messages. Such a shame that today's horse was a non-runner as it was so obviously going to be a sure fire winner, haha :rollin. Regardless of what anyone might have said on my original 'Hi I'm new thread' I will give you the low-down every now and then about whether I've been shopping or dancing. I will keep it brief as I understand what this forum is for and know that not everybody wants to know about girly stuff. I will be true to my word and put up on here any bets that we have. If I don't come on for a few days it's simply because I'm busy and we have no bets. I'm sure there will also be the odd occasion when we do have a bet - during the week - but simply don't have the time to get on here, but that's life. For now though I will love you and leave you as I'm off to do the vegetables to go with the duck. Good luck in the week with your bets. I will try to contribute when I can. Gunkey :cow Ps. sorry about the pink :tongue2

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010

how moody is your dad? non runner

Very moody. Luckily I take after mum :nana

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Hey everybody, isn’t it lovely having a Monday off work, and of course it also makes the week a little shorter!

A busy day today with lots of recommendations and bets, so I’m leaving myself really open to attack today if we do badly.

First of all we’ve had some of the 4/1 on King Fingal in the 3.20 at Beverley but as only 7/2 is now available I’ll work my profit/loss out at that so none of you can tell me off for saying we got 4/1 when only 7/2 was available (even though we did). He ran a super race last time pulling clear of the rest when second and the slightly shorter trip – his last winning distance – will surely help him today.

We’ve also had some of the 5/2 currently on offer at William Hill for Perfect Act in the last race at Kempton. This horse has some good form at this track and was a good second last time out and we think he’ll get his head in front again today.

Also at Kempton, the 10/3 on offer for Eton Forever has tempted us in the 5.00 and we’re happy to try this one too, even allowing for the fact that there are many unraced horses from some good stables that could be anything. Eton Forever will surely have benefitted from his first race and any normal amount of improvement should see him run really well today.

After a sparkling last run when finishing 3^rd at Epsom coming from behind after not going too well, the 9/4 on offer for Candleshoe in the 4.10 at Warwick has tempted us. She’s lightly raced and we think she’ll improve leaps and bounds for that first run and we’re happy to try her today.

Due to some non-runners, the price on Centigrade in the 3.25 at Windsor has now collapsed to 7/4 but we’re happy to do a win bet on this one at that price. We don’t have much justification for this one except to say that we think he will have improved lots over the winter and will win this before going onto bigger and better things.

(All best odds guaranteed except Eton Forever!)

So to summarise: King Fingal – 3.20 Beverley - £100 each way 7/2 Perfect Act – 5.30 Kempton - £100 each way 5/2 Eton Forever – 5.00 Kempton £100 each way 10/3 (NOT best odds guaranteed) Candleshoe – 4.10 Warwick - £100 each way 9/4 Centrigrade – 3.25 Windsor - £200 win 7/4

Sorry my reasoning isn’t great today but I promise I’ll get better as time goes on.

Have a nice day and best of luck to you all with your bets. :hope

[DM99]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Good luck with your picks today Gunkey, and I hope that the duck you had yesterday was delicious! Just a minor point: people normally use "points" instead of pounds to stake their bets when they post on this forum. As you will agree, saying that you use 100 pound bets don't mean much by itself: your betting bank could be 200 pounds or 20,000 pounds. Much better to use points to show the strength of your picks. :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010

Hey everybody' date= isn’t it lovely having a Monday off work, and of course it also makes the week a little shorter!

A busy day today with lots of recommendations and bets, so I’m leaving myself really open to attack today if we do badly.

First of all we’ve had some of the 4/1 on King Fingal in the 3.20 at Beverley but as only 7/2 is now available I’ll work my profit/loss out at that so none of you can tell me off for saying we got 4/1 when only 7/2 was available (even though we did). He ran a super race last time pulling clear of the rest when second and the slightly shorter trip – his last winning distance – will surely help him today.

We’ve also had some of the 5/2 currently on offer at William Hill for Perfect Act in the last race at Kempton. This horse has some good form at this track and was a good second last time out and we think he’ll get his head in front again today.

Also at Kempton, the 10/3 on offer for Eton Forever has tempted us in the 5.00 and we’re happy to try this one too, even allowing for the fact that there are many unraced horses from some good stables that could be anything. Eton Forever will surely have benefitted from his first race and any normal amount of improvement should see him run really well today.

After a sparkling last run when finishing 3^rd at Epsom coming from behind after not going too well, the 9/4 on offer for Candleshoe in the 4.10 at Warwick has tempted us. She’s lightly raced and we think she’ll improve leaps and bounds for that first run and we’re happy to try her today.

Due to some non-runners, the price on Centigrade in the 3.25 at Windsor has now collapsed to 7/4 but we’re happy to do a win bet on this one at that price. We don’t have much justification for this one except to say that we think he will have improved lots over the winter and will win this before going onto bigger and better things.

(All best odds guaranteed except Eton Forever!)

So to summarise: King Fingal – 3.20 Beverley - £100 each way 7/2 Perfect Act – 5.30 Kempton - £100 each way 5/2 Eton Forever – 5.00 Kempton £100 each way 10/3 (NOT best odds guaranteed) Candleshoe – 4.10 Warwick - £100 each way 9/4 Centrigrade – 3.25 Windsor - £200 win 7/4

Sorry my reasoning isn’t great today but I promise I’ll get better as time goes on.

Have a nice day and best of luck to you all with your bets. :hope

Good luck with those Gunkey. Plenty of action for you today and a few more clothes if they all win!

[Kithanga]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 3 out of 5 aint bad, nice pickin'. I'll have to raise you 10lb for that performance :lol Visit to the shops tomorrrow for you me thinks

[StuSimmy]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Nice picks today :nana

[RussP]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Well done today:clap Is your boyfriend called Cavelloman by any chance?;)

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Hey all, Not a bad day yesterday I guess but obviously we were a bit disappointed with those two that didn't run too well. But the three winners were most welcome and yes Kithanga - the shops beckon really soon :nana but sadly I'm back at work today :(! Thank you StuSimmy :ok. Hi RussP - not sure I understand why you asked if my boyfriend was called Cavelloman, but he definitely isn't :). Is this Cavelloman somebody I should know or be aware of? Sorry if I've misunderstood a joke :wall. DM99 I'll try to convert what we've done so-far in money, as I like to work in money money money, and then see how I go turning that into points. If I make a mess of it then maybe you can help? Ok, so-far on this thread we've had: Super Sleuth 3rd 10/3 :clap = -£34.67 King Fingal WON 4/1 :clap = +£500.00 Total = +£465.33 Perfect Act Lost = -£200 Total = +£265.33 Eton Forever WON 10/3 :clap= +£400 Total = +£665.33 Candleshoe WON 9/4 :clap= £270 Total = +£935.33 Centigrade Lost = -£200 Total = +£735.33 If I try to convert this to points, and we assume most of my bets are £100 each-way can I then say that an average bet is 1 point each-way? Would that mean that £735 profit would equate to 7.35 points profit? Bit confused but sure that's about right. Would ask the guy but he's already left for work. We work to about a bank of £4000 which gives us 20 £100 each-way bets. The reason I like to work in money than points is because £735 profit sounds much yummier than 7.35 points profit to me. I hope you understood this and I've done it correctly. I'll try to pop back on later if something turns up. Have a good day everybody!

[BillyHills]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010

Would that mean that £735 profit would equate to 7.35 points profit

No, just drop the £ signs thats all. 735pts profit is what you made if a point is a pound. We just dont encourage posters to state their bets in currency as it means nothing, i mean £100 to you may mean a big bet or an average bet, its loose change to some and a fortune to others. It really doesnt matter that much if you bet the same stake all the time though, the reason points are used a lot is to tell us the strenghth of your bet, if you worked on a scale of say 1-10pts where 10pts is a maximum bet and 1pt is a 'fancy' then the members would know immediately how strong you thought the horses chances are in your opinion, what you have to realise is that on a public forum such as this many members/lurkers may follow your tips blindly, it just gives everyone an indication of your thoughts thats all, like i say with level stakes its not that important. Just putting 100pts EW is fine. A £4k bank with £100 EW bets equals 5% of your bank to level stakes which is about what most do, some a bit less, as low as 2%, but each to their own. Just keep the totals up to date, win or lose, so members can see at a glance how you are performing overall:ok **Oh and by the way if you want to quote prices you need to say which bookie was offering them.

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Hey, Thanks for the message BH. I understand it now. So if I'm talking in pounds (which I won't anymore as you don't like that) then I guess £1 would equate to 1 point. But if most of my bets are £100 each-way then almost all my bets are 100 points each-way? Only sometimes - very rarely - will I place half stakes so that would be 50 points each-way? I guess then that £1 being 1 point then £735 does = 735 points as you said. (I thought I was good at maths but I'm much happier working in money, haha!) Now I know I'll stick to the points but do 100 point bets sound silly? I don't have anything like super-strong bets or maximum bets - we just have bets, but like I said sometimes half-stake bets. My partner has been trying to convince me all this morning to jump on Honourable Knight in the first race at Bath. I contemplated half-stakes but decided against it. Apparently he's nowhere near as bad as he looked first time, but whether my man tries it or not, I won't be including it on here. I'm advising nobody to bet on it but wondered if anybody had any views on this horse and/or race? If I'm not allowed to mention horses like this unless I bet on them then I'm sorry and won't do it again, but like I said it was merely out of interest. Have a lucky afternoon. Back to a million emails now :wall!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Nothing wrong with generating a bit of discussion on a horse, noticed that it finished 3rd @ 16/1 so would have been a nice each way bet if your boyfriend did decide to bet on the horse. With regards to pts, 1pt can = any amount really, it is up to you how many pts equates to £'s whether that be £1 or £100.

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Hi StuSimmy, Hope you've been having a good day? :tongue2 My man is in a very good mood as he obviously was on Honourable Knight. I'm happy too as he's now meeting me after work to buy me a glass of wine or two, but maybe just one as it is only Tuesday - we shall see! Enjoy the evening everybody - it has brightened up nicely here in central London :cow.

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Ok we're having a bet today on the 7/2 currently on offer by Paddy Power, Stan James or William Hill for Redwood in the 2.15 at Chester. Barry Hills loves a winner or two at Chester and Redwood must surely have come on leaps and bounds for his first run at Sandown when just failing to catch Glass Harmonium. Michael Stoute clearly likes to win this race so his Kingdom of Fife looks to be a real danger. Redwood however is lightly raced so open to plenty of improvement and with that last fine run under his belt we're happy to try him at 7/2. Good luck in what you do today!

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 OK well we’re having another bet today. To begin with, I see that Redwood is on the drift slightly, but that doesn’t bother us as we always take best odds guaranteed.

In the second race at Goodwood we’re having some of the 10/3 currently offered by Bet365 or Boylesports for Sikeeb. A super first time our run where he was in front of Julius Geezer who won well yesterday. Obviously some of the others could be anything but with that good first run under his belt we think Sikeeb is well worth a try to go one better. Hopefully his experience will pay!

Good luck in whatever you lot do today.

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 At Goodwood in the 5.50 we’ll be taking the 9/4 currently on offer by many firms including Bet365, Boylesports and Stan James for Prince of Dreams. 2^nd only to Gardening Leave – who won a Listed race at Newmarket recently – we think he is well worth a try today. The lack of a recent run doesn’t bother us as William Knight has shown several times he can ready his horses, and Jim Crowley does well for this yard. Theology is a big danger but he’s had three attempts compared to ours with only one, so we’re happy to try and hope Crowley gets him to win. That is all for today!

Good luck!

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Not a bad day overall the other day as we broke level. I've had to edit and re-type some of this as lots of strange stuff got pasted in, in the original message?!? Latest update:

Super Sleuth 3

rd

10/3 -34.67 pts

King Fingal

Won 4/1

+500 +465.33

Perfect Act Lost -200 +265.33

Eton

Forever

Won 10/3

+400 +665.33

Candleshoe

Won 9/4

+270 +935.33

Centigrade Lost -200 +735.33

Redwood Lost -200 +535.33

Sikeeb

Won 10/3

+400 +935.33

Prince of Dreams Lost -200 +735.33

pts

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Ok, well we're having a try today up at Haydock in the last race. The 3/1 widely available (Bet365 and BetFred being two examples) for Lady Luachmar has tempted us. She'll need to settle much better than she has in the past but her trainer is reported to be saying she's learnt to - and who are we to disbelieve Richard Fahey? The yard could hardly be in better form and at 3/1 we're willing to try her. Good luck in what you do today!

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 We've decided to have a second bet for today, which will be our last. At Nottingham in the 1.55 we're happy to take the 7/2 currently on offer by BetFred for King of Eden. We think he'll follow up after his recent win, and Eric Alston certainly knows how to get a sprinter running. It's a tough race with lots of dangers but something has to win and we think Alston's in-form sprinter will follow up, so 7/2 is nice enough for us. Good luck to you all today :hope. We're not doing much today - relaxing after a hard long week :cheers. Probably more relaxed at the moment than Gordon Brown is :sad! :ok

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Well to say that we're annoyed with yesterday is the understatement of the year. Neither of those rides will be considered for the ride of the season - and that's being polite.

			King Of Eden (IRE)	8-4	P Hanagan	E J Alston		4/1
		mid-division, headway when not clear run over 1f out, edged left and running on when not clear run and snatched up towards finish Lady Luachmhar (IRE) 9-3 T Hamilton R A Fahey 3/1 held up in mid-division, pushed along over 3f out, not much room over 2f out and again over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong to take 3rd place

Oh well, rubbish happens :wall. King of Eden - 4th in a 15-runner handicap (typical), and Lady Luachmhar a least got placed and saved most of the money, but really, in our opinion both should have won. But there you go - some days you're lucky and some you aren't! Onwards and upwards! :hope

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Ok, I think I've finally understood this points system, thanks to my man's help. As I originally started talking in money I presumed that a £100 each-way bet would equate to a 100 point each-way bet - but apparently not! For us that is an average bet and thus makes it a 1 point each way bet. I understand now, doh :wall. So now I understand that let's look at how I've done so-far talking in points :ok: Super Sleuth 3rd 10/3 = -0.34 King Fingal WON 4/1 = +5 Total = 4.66 Perfect Act Lost = -2 Total = +2.66 Eton Forever WON 10/3 = +4 Total = +6.66 Candleshoe WON 9/4 = +2.7 Total = +9.36 Centigrade Lost = -2 Total = +7.36 Redwood Lost = -2 Total = +5.36 Sikeeb WON 10/3 :clap = +4 Total = +9.36 Prince of Dreams Lost = -2 Total = +7.36 King of Eden Lost = -2 Total = +5.36 Lady of Luachmhar 3rd 3/1 :clap = -0.4 total = +4.96 So, almost 5 points profit so far, which isn't too bad I guess. This should be more as really we don't usually do win bets and should not really have done Centigrade, but there you go :spank. Perfect Act would also not normally have been a bet as there were less than 8 runners, but then again he did finish a disappointing 6th anyway. Things will definitely get better as my confidence grows in this site. We've had far far too many already that just say Lost and we WILL soon put that right :cow. Good luck with what you do today and I'll be back on later if something is worth a try :cheers.

[Gunkey]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Ok, we're having a bet today and we're really confident with this one, but then again we always are or else we wouldn't bother. As you might have seen from my Leopardstown thread my man is massively keen on Address Unknown in the 4.05 but I'm not bothering. We are bothering however with Carraiglawn in the 3.05 there. 9/4 is on offer at Paddy Power (was 11/4) so we're happy enough with that. He ran really well a few weeks ago when just beaten by Zayaan, pulling clear of the rest :clap. With normal improvement for his first run he surely has to be hard to beat today. Good luck :hope!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 You are off to a great start Gunkey :clap good luck today

[ELCAKER]

Re: Gunkey's flat thread 2010 Gunkey, This is fast becoming a must read for me, even if I dont as yet follow your selections blind! Are you as bonkers (only meant in the nicest possible sense) as I think you are? Definitely have you down as a glass half full person, a very engaging thread, keep it up. :clap:clap