Your thoughts on these plz

[Carl]

stumbled across these on web-site and they seem to be rules/guidelines for certain races. Could any of you give your opinion or thoughts to these and maybe we can come up with a system/rule that we can construct? Free Turf Horse Racing Systems 2nd Favourites at Grade 1 Courses

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System:	Back all 2nd favourites in Selling and Claiming races at Ascot, Epsom, Goodwood, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, York
Date created:	23-Mar-02
Initial Results:	25% strike rate, 17% profit

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Why does it work?: Because punters are not used to lowly sellers and claimers at the very best courses. They overbet the favourite and sometimes create false favourites. The second favourite is thus underbet and pushed into profitability. Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on the favourite, the price of the other horses tend to lengthen. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse in the race. If his price is higher than it should be, then in the long run he is valuable to follow. Beaten Favourites

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System:	Back beaten favourites in Novice races. Horse must be fancied (SP < RUNNERS / 3.33) and not up in class
Date created:	25-Aug-00
Initial Results:	53% strike rate, 29% profit

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Why does it work?: All beaten favourites are generally underbet by the public. Punters see that they were beaten last time when favourite and assume that he could be beaten again today. The reason why Novice races are profitable for this system is not known. Next Day Runners

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System:	Back horses who ran yesterday and are favourite today
Date created:	27-Aug-00
Initial Results:	40% strike rate, 29% profit

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Why does it work?: Punters are seriously underbetting this kind of horse. All next day runners do not make a profit. But those who are favourite win as often as a regular favourite but have the added advantage of being fit and strongly fancied by connections. The odds available for them is higher than it should be, thus a value bet can be had. Free All Weather Horse Racing Systems Quick Return Handicaps

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System:	Back colts and geldings who last ran within 3 days. Must have won within the past 4 weeks and SP in single figures
Date created:	10-Mar-02
Initial Results:	35% strike rate, 43% profit

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Why does it work?: a) Because males hold a tremendous edge over females, b) turning out quickly on the sand is a huge positive, c) by insisting the horse has won within 4 weeks shows he has winning ability, d) single figure SP ensures that the contender is no donkey, or is not taking a big rise in class. Quick Return Stakes

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System:	Stakes races (not maiden), horse last ran within 3 days, 10 runners or less, the favourite
Date created:	10-Mar-02
Initial Results:	57% strike rate 33% profit

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Why does it work?: Similar reasons to the handicap version - it is relying on quick returners. You could filter for males, but most of the qualifiers are males anyway. Favourite Colts

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System:	Back Colts who won within 7 days and are the favourite
Date created:	29-Jan-02
Initial Results:	48% strike rate, 25% profit

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Why does it work?: Because punters seriously underestimate a) the importance of a recent win, b) colts on the all weather. This favourite is very much underbet by form punters and media pundits. 6yo in Selling Stakes

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System:	Back 6yo's in middle and long distance selling stakes in January. (Works best with contenders who are within the first three in the betting)
Date created:	04-Jan-02
Initial Results:	62% strike rate, 112% profit

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Why does it work?: Because of a flaw in the weight for age scale. On Jan 1st all horses are one year older. In this month there are peculiarities in certain stakes races which creates biases to certain age groups. 6yo's in selling stakes are one such advantaged group. Recent Winners with Penalty

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System:	Class D-E Handicaps (not 3yo+), winner LTO within 7 days, age < 6, penalty 4-7lbs, distance < 10f
Date created:	26-Dec-00
Initial Results:	42% strike rate, 27% profit

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Why does it work?: On turf as well as AW the penalty system is not penal enough. Trying to stop a winning horse with extra weight is like King Canute trying to stop the tide coming in. On the AW though, this advantage is greater. Don't be put off by the convoluted rules. It is slightly back fitted, but all the usual safeguards and tests have been done to prove the systems worthiness. CD Top weights

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System:	Back CD winners who are top weight in Claimers and Sellers at 10f or more
Date created:	20-Aug-00
Initial Results:	47% strike rate, 30% profit

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Why does it work?: Punters underestimate the chances of CD top weights in those races. Most of the contenders are serial sand winners and punters refuse to bet them because they think a) the horse has won enough races, b) the horse is running in a seller or claimer so the connections can't fancy it if they risk it being bought. This is wrong. The serial CD winner in these races keeps on winning and beating the lower weighted runners. The provision of 10f+ is to ensure that the 'CD' has more meaning. The longer the race, the more the advantage of having won over the course and distance. :hope

[whoneedsrio]

2nd favs at grade 1 courses Herp, Ran the first system through my RSB software, heres what came out. Trainer : All Trainers Jockey : All Jockeys Sire : All Sires Dam Sire: All Dam Sires Years 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Variable Category Course Group A Ascot Epsom Goodwood Kempton Newbury Sandown York Odds, Starting Price Rank 2nd favourite Race Type claiming races 2yo sellers 3yo sellers other sellers YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 6 40 15.00 -12.00 -30.00 1992 12 54 22.22 6.00 11.11 1993 9 38 23.68 5.50 14.47 1994 7 35 20.00 -3.00 -8.57 1995 11 37 29.73 13.79 37.27 1996 11 27 40.74 21.58 79.93 1997 7 22 31.82 7.83 35.59 1998 1 20 5.00 -16.00 -80.00 1999 2 16 12.50 -7.75 -48.44 2000 4 13 30.77 1.75 13.46 2001 3 15 20.00 -0.75 -5.00 2002 3 17 17.65 0.00 0.00 2003 3 10 30.00 3.75 37.50 ____________________________________________________________ 79 344 22.97 20.70 6.02 I'll run what I can of the others when I get a bit more time, might have to tweak a rule here & there tho'. Rio.

[Carl]

Re: Your thoughts on these plz cheers rio i value your opinion. maybe we could come up with some sort of system and paper test it?

[whoneedsrio]

Quick return handicaps Results of the aw system, very slight change to rules are winner in last 31 days instead of four weeks & SP up to 10/1 instead of single figures. quick return Handicaps Trainer : All Trainers Jockey : All Jockeys Sire : All Sires Dam Sire: All Dam Sires Years 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Variable Category Winner, Days Since a Win last win

[whoneedsrio]

Quick return stakes Another aw system, very few qualifiers, one to leave alone I think. qr stakes Trainer : All Trainers Jockey : All Jockeys Sire : All Sires Dam Sire: All Dam Sires Years 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Variable Category Race Type 2yo conditions races 3yo & all age cnds. races Race Runners 2 runners 3 - 4 runners 5 - 7 runners 8 - 10 runners Odds, Starting Price Rank 1st favourite Horse, Interval Time last ran

[whoneedsrio]

Favourite colts The software can't seperate colts & geldings, I could print out the qualifiers & look back through the form books but that would too much time. This shows some promise tho'. 7 day Trainer : All Trainers Jockey : All Jockeys Sire : All Sires Dam Sire: All Dam Sires Years 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Variable Category Course Group D Lingfield (aw) Southwell (aw) Wolverhampton (aw) Horse, Interval Time last ran

[Carl]

Re: Your thoughts on these plz cheers rio great work BTW