AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

[Ashtee]

North Melbourne @ 2.90 Pinnacle Big bodies, much in the theme of Brisbane’s & Geelong’s recently successful teams and no sign thus far of tempo or the players carefully checking their notes each time in the play. Instead lots of hard ‘in & under’ and positive movement which is really suiting the dangerous forwards like Jones, Campbell, Thomas. It’s still a tricky assignment for North however, with Port already displaying renewed enthusiasm, yet that was only in the pretend games. That’s where the assessment of this is interesting because they do lose the Burgoyne’s, Lade from their list and will be without Motlop, Rodan, Chaplin & now Wade Thompson. That’s some decent bite missing while North will be without Petrie yet have an abundance of quality types who can play his role. The new coach syndrome applies and the odds offered on North are most definitely value. My price; North 2.18 & +4 North Melbourne: 7 Wins or More @ 1.87 Centrebet :tongue2 What an absolute steal!! I loaded up on this one earlier (@1.87) and am quite surprised to see it back out to 1.87 after going into 1.72. Fremantle @ 2.02 Canbet Adelaide’s pre season has been hampered with injuries and likely absentees will include match-winners in Burton & Porplyzia. Fremantle have a few missing themselves but while Adelaide’s team looks tested for depth Fremantle’s remains very solid with Pavlich ever present, Haselby & Johnson better prepared, McPhee included and an exceptionally promising bunch of second & third year players. Always management of these two teams is an applicable factor but first up and at home Fremantle are very strongly placed this time. My price; Fremantle 1.70 & -7.5

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Centrebet prices: RICHMOND------------2.89------ +16.5 : 1.91 CARLTON-------------1.42------ -16.5 : 1.91 GEELONG-------------1.20----- -29.5 : 1.91 ESSENDON------------4.60----- +29.5 : 1.91 MELBOURNE-----------5.10----- +31.5 : 1.91 HAWTHORN-----------1.17----- -31.5 : 1.91 SYDNEY--------------2.74----- +15.5 : 1.91 ST KILDA-------------1.46----- -15.5 : 1.91 BRISBANE-------------1.33----- -20.5 : 1.91 WEST COAST---------3.35----- +20.5 : 1.91 PORT ADELAIDE--------1.42----- -16.5 : 1.91 NORTH MELBOURNE-----2.89----- +16.5 : 1.91 WESTERN BULLDOGS---1.62----- -8.5 : 1.91 COLLINGWOOD---------2.31----- +8.5 : 1.91 FREMANTLE-----------2.01----- +2.5 : 1.91 ADELAIDE-------------1.81----- -2.5 : 1.91 wd there Ash esp Nth @ $2.90. Dunno how they are blowing out like that. When one of the 1st markets opened 2 weeks ago they were $2.45 @ Sportsbet I believe. Looks to be an over-reaction to NAB Cup form. I will add more later but so far only interested in Geel -29.5; Nth +16.5 (yes I'm chicken) and Pies +8.5 :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Nothing wrong with the North h'cap option this week :ok, says me fresh off trying to be smart and taking WBD 1-39 last week :( - he was never ever going miss it :eyes. I'm also eyeing the 31.5 Melbourne. Hawthorn on paper look a whole lot more basic with Franklin, Sewell & Rioli missing. Dees a few out themselves but I think they can cover this first up. Two I had spec at last night; Geelong to miss the 8 @ 11.00 Pinnacle Hawthorn to miss the 8 @ 4.50 Betchoice ... so obviously still fishing for my first critic of the season :D, but both are overs IMO. I'll must throw up a Saints, Federer, Man Utd multi at some stage just so people think I'm some sort of pro punter ;). :ok

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Gday Boys. Can tell you that Rioli, Burgers, Franklin, Young and Bateman wont play this week against the Dees. Reckon the Swannies at the line are worth a look too. Will wait for the teams on that one though.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Nothing wrong with the North h'cap option this week :ok, says me fresh off trying to be smart and taking WBD 1-39 last week :( - he was never ever going miss it :eyes.

Barryyyyyy!! :rollin :rollin Not as convinved about the Roos as you boys...Port's pre-season form was very good...esp. considering they were all on the road. Kangas won in Rd. 22 last year when Port have completely given up, and IIRC the win (@ AAMI) before that was in the wet... Melbourne do seem to play Hawthorn tough, but ****... :puke It's Melbourne! (Although, nothing wrong with that Hawks to miss the 8 :ok ) Not sure what you're seeing in the Pies oz...had an amazingly cushy run to the finals last year, and still look a long way off the top 3 I would have thought... I'm not all that happy with any side this week...will be looking at a couple of totals tho for sure. :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Barryyyyyy!! :rollin :rollin Not as convinved about the Roos as you boys...Port's pre-season form was very good...esp. considering they were all on the road. Kangas won in Rd. 22 last year when Port have completely given up, and IIRC the win (@ AAMI) before that was in the wet... Melbourne do seem to play Hawthorn tough, but ****... :puke It's Melbourne! (Although, nothing wrong with that Hawks to miss the 8 :ok ) Not sure what you're seeing in the Pies oz...had an amazingly cushy run to the finals last year, and still look a long way off the top 3 I would have thought... I'm not all that happy with any side this week...will be looking at a couple of totals tho for sure. :beer

When you're my age you'll get to know the eye sight goes! I've got the reading glasses out, and a magnifying glass, as well as my face up against the screen, but yeah, will be interesting the totol they throw up on Carlton/Richmond. Also Oz, Re Geel, I'd expect Lloyd & Hird back in for Ess this week.

[DafsT]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Which bookies give money lines on AFL? Bet365 don't seem to do it...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Bet365 have them up now, DafsT. There's a few I mentioned at top of this page. Also http://www.onthepunt.com.au/afllatestodds.php

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Gday Boys. Can tell you that Rioli, Burgers, Franklin, Young and Bateman wont play this week against the Dees.

... Sewell, Taylor, Campbell, Williams, Dew McGlyn, Tuck, Whitecross. They have picked up Gibson and Hooper but it still will be a team with a lot of lesser lights.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Carlton v. Richmond under 193.5 (1.90) Nice way to start the season I reckon. Figure 180 will be much closer to the mark. 198 points in their last meeting, with Fev kicking 9.1...more than half Carlton's score! No Richo either obviously... Ratten has been talking up the Blues' new slower, more 'in control' game style, due largely to their lack of a key forward, and NAB Cup scores backed it up with scores of 59, 83, 66 & 82...and holding their 4 opponents to each 25 shots or less @ an av. of 22. Richmond will be a lot harder,more accountable and more defensive minded under Hardwick than they were under the worst coach in history (no, not Robert Walls), and they av'd

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Carlton v. Richmond under 193.5 (1.90) Nice way to start the season I reckon. Figure 180 will be much closer to the mark. 198 points in their last meeting, with Fev kicking 9.1...more than half Carlton's score! No Richo either obviously... Ratten has been talking up the Blues' new slower, more 'in control' game style, due largely to their lack of a key forward, and NAB Cup scores backed it up with scores of 59, 83, 66 & 82...and holding their 4 opponents to each 25 shots or less @ an av. of 22. Richmond will be a lot harder,more accountable and more defensive minded under Hardwick than they were under the worst coach in history (no, not Robert Walls), and they av'd I'm with ya on that one Taz. Nice little earner first up imo.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Yeah :ok, I'm Under 190.5 @ 2.10. The one thing that worry's me a little is both camps talking up how cautious & defensive they will be. Could they get it together well enough to score big even if they wanted to anyway?? :eek The big blonde locks and baby face looks a worry for Richmond. For his sake I hope he has a good game.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) I threw the stubby, which just glanced a corner of the tele, once HIS-effing-LOP snapped the fifth goal 3mins into Q1 .. switched tele off and went to go for walk to calm down and forget about it. So tell me boys, now that I'm calm, how far over 250 did the sucker go?

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

I threw the stubby, which just glanced a corner of the tele, once HIS-effing-LOP snapped the fifth goal 3mins into Q1 .. switched tele off and went to go for walk to calm down and forget about it. So tell me boys, now that I'm calm, how far over 250 did the sucker go?

You did your eyes and ears a favour by walking away from that rat faeces show that was last night's game. Well done to everyone on the under total :clap

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Also Oz' date=' Re Geel, I'd expect Lloyd & Hird back in for Ess this week.[/quote'] Geelong -14.5(1.91) @ HT It is well-known that the Cats may be behind in their preparation for the season, are making news for the wrong reasons re: Ablett and according to popular belief, are no longer the team to beat - that their time is about up. It's also well-known that the Cats like to beat up the Bombers, play in bursts and dispel any threats and doubts to their dominance. The stage is set and I would be very, very surprised if the Cats don't come out firing on all cylinders to make a statement to the AFL world and kill the game off early. I favour this likelihood in contrast to the delayed burst footy they've shown in the pre-season which is why I've gone with the smaller HT line.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

I threw the stubby, which just glanced a corner of the tele, once HIS-effing-LOP snapped the fifth goal 3mins into Q1 .. switched tele off and went to go for walk to calm down and forget about it. So tell me boys, now that I'm calm, how far over 250 did the sucker go?

LOL!! :rollin:rollin I thought I was the only one who did that kind of stuff!...and no physical damage has occured for a while either... ...don't tell me you actually grow back into that kind of thing! :unsure :lol The under was always a chance given 12.1 at one stage from Carlton was completely unlikely to continue, but yeah, they were coming free and fast directly from the rectum early that's for sure. Actually a really good night for me...snuck the under home while Betts and Yarran still have very productive DT/SC nights. :nana No real opinion on tonight. The 190ish total seems a bit high given Essendon's (ahem) forward line, and also Geelong's scoring pre-season, but as you say oz, there's nothing really to suggest that the Cats don't score big like they usually do! Good luck tonight guys. I'll be watching for enjoyment only. :cheers

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) What's with going back to the bad old days with the totals?! :@ Last year Centrebet had them all listed on Thursday night...now it looks like we're back in the dark ages of them being posted somewhere around 2 hours prior to game time. :wall Another tough game to read today...As you guys have said, lots of Hawks missing, but are Melbourne any better than the Tiges? :\ Gave up 97+ in 3 of 4 pre-season games...WC, Ess, Freo hardly big scorers either. Liking that 2.02 for Freo now tho Ash, with Johnny Cock out as well. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Spoke a bit too soon... ...totals are up for today's games...I like the 185.5 for the Brisbane game tonight, but will wait a bit until the other books post their lines. Any extra points just may come in handy. St. Kilda @ Sydney (2.04) Yeah, taking the soft option...I've seen 3.25 for the ...but at better than evens this is still a good option I reckon. 1 point in Sydney last year, 15 @ the dome... ...a blow out Sydney win 2008, but 2, 17, 26, 2 the 4 games previous... ...not to mention the 1 point game in the NAB Cup this year. 7 out of 10 Swans games in Sydney last year were results of 23 points or less (Av.20.6), and with them really talking up their defensive game** this week I can see another typical low scoring, tight match up here. ** In the pre-season they allowed 19, 18, 18 and 17 shots

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Brisbane v. West Coast under 187.5 (1.90) Two pretty good defenses here I reckon. Eagles with Glass, Brown and McKenzie match up well with Brown, Fev and likely Staker... Brisbane very good defensively at home as it is, held teams to 83.3 ppg, which isn't great news for the Eagles who av'd just 76 ppg on the road and had more than 22 shots just twice all season! The last 6 meetings have all been under this number, inc. 181 last year in the same round, but with some super straight kicking (27.19). Brisbane have struggled to get their forwardline completely in sync. over the pre-season...forget the water polo game @ Canberra, but had games of 83-80 @ Carlton and 56-45 v. Hawthorn. Eagles scored big v. Melbourne and Essendon, but didn't top 25 shots v. Port or Carlton, so I can't see them doing a whole lot of scoring tonight.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) TAB had that mixed bag of Totals they offer up on Wednesday night, which is often a succors way of going (high overounds) but I noticed I could build a bet of Under 190.5 @ 2.10 so I jumped straight in thinking it won't hold up, which it didn't. You'd think the bookies will become gamer once there's more form on the board? My opinion is Bailey is a crap coach. Thought I'd give them a possibility today to prove that wrong but it's time for no more excuses in my opinion. They show no spirit and never have in time he's been there. Good luck with those two tonight Taza. I think the Sydney one looks a beauty but I think I'll do a watcher tonight and maybe look for an in-play.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) North Melbourne +16.5 @ 1.91 Port probably deserve favouritism but not by nearly 3 goals. They lose Gray from their line up as well. Nth need to play w/o Petrie but depend on their smalls and mids for goals anyway.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Gray will be a significant loss. Does Motlop play? He should be underdone even if he does.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Gray will be a significant loss. Does Motlop play? He should be underdone even if he does.

My apologies. Gray is not a confirmed out and both he and Motlop have been nursed through training as they are having hamstring problems but I'm thinking it's not something you want to risk esp in Rnd 1. Their emergencies are: Scott Harding, Nick Salter, Matt Thomas. Here's a red herring. Luke McPharlin

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Both Gray and Motlop have officially been ruled out. Pouring with rain in Adelaide atm too...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) North blown out to 3.25 now. Sure Port deserve favoritism but ...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Yeah, starting to agree... ...might be a bit of a pointless point, but when's the last time all the favs won. :\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) I'm starting to think, when's last time all u/dogs won on a Sunday. :tongue2

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28)

Both Gray and Motlop have officially been ruled out.

I just read it in today's paper (unofficially) they didn't go good yesterday. Couldn't find that info on the net or didn't look in the right places :(

Pouring with rain in Adelaide atm too...

Contested ball, smalls with big bodies. Which team has it the most? Total down to 164.5 at a rate of knots.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Usually like a home team in wet but North should have plenty to offer. Tends to be dry rain at AAMI doesn't it with scoring not as stifled as would be the case elsewhere. Not sure what they've said about it on 501 (just walked in) but looks like it'd stopped?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 1 (March 25-28) Listening to some radio station**, Dermie calling, says North are too top heavy for the conditions. :\ ** I can't handle this combination of living away from home and in Melbourne! No Fox...and even the advertised "live" games aren't. :wall Want a boarder over weekends Ash? :lol