CzechPunter Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Ok, my tennis betting results of last year show that it can be very profitable to back outsiders - it is how bookmakers make the most money anyway. With that in mind, I will be looking to back some overpriced underdogs, especially on the WTA circuit. So far, it will be a paper trial and I will be starting with 100pt bank, betting 2pts per bet. Wish me luck.:hope The first bets are (I will be using only pinnacle for convenience): A.Kleybanova to bt. K.Clijsters @ 3.97 S.Errani to bt. J.Jankovic @ 2.93 R.Vinci to bt. Y.Wickmayer @ 3.830 G.Garcia-Lopez to bt. T.Belluci @ 2.470 B.Dabul to bt. I.Ljubicic @ 3.570 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? ....Wish me luck.:hope.... I wish you good luck:hope. But can you explain how you decide whether an underdog is "overpriced" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? I wish you good luck:hope. But can you explain how you decide whether an underdog is "overpriced" ? This is tennis, so the answer is simple. An underdog is overpriced if the favourite has backed himself to lose ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? This is tennis, so the answer is simple. An underdog is overpriced if the favourite has backed himself to lose ;) What!.... you're not suggesting there's corruption in tennis :loon..... and there I was, thinking it was a gentleman's game (well, Fedex is a gentleman, anyway) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? This is tennis, so the answer is simple. An underdog is overpriced if the favourite has backed himself to lose ;) Hmm do you know something? Maybe email me the details ?? :dude Edit: Lookin forward to seeing what happens with your system. Goodluck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? What!.... you're not suggesting there's corruption in tennis No, tennis is very clean. Almost as clean as snooker :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? I wish you good luck:hope. But can you explain how you decide whether an underdog is "overpriced" ? Well, maybe I should clarify that this is not a system that would be based on some statistics from previous years and that you would just look into your excel spreadsheet and chose the bets. "Overpriced" for me would be the value bet that is, for most people, too risky to take - you know, when people see odds of 3 or so in tennis, they usually back away just because of that. And since I follow tennis a lot, I think I can maybe spot some of them. The real thing is that I do not need even 50% strike rate to make profit. Hope that answered the question and if not, feel free to ask again. Anyway: A.Kleybanova to bt. K.Clijsters @ 3.97 :clap (+5.94) S.Errani to bt. J.Jankovic @ 2.93 :wall (-2) R.Vinci to bt. Y.Wickmayer @ 3.830 :wall (-2) G.Garcia-Lopez to bt. T.Belluci @ 2.470 :clap (+2.94) B.Dabul to bt. I.Ljubicic @ 3.570 :wall (-2) Starting bank 100 Current bank 102.88 Total staked 10 Number of bets 5 Winning bets 2 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 40% Yield 28.8% Profit (or Loss) +2.88 For today: S.Greul to bt. J.Melzer @ 3.440 M.Russel (+6) to bt. A.Murray @ 1.952 A.Molik to bt. J.Zheng @ 2.890 N.Petrova to bt. C.Wozniacki @ 2.610 S.Stosur to bt. V.Zvonareva @ 2.760 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? Nice start, CzechPunter :clap.... and good luck with tonight's selections :hope. On the question of your selection method, I'm not sure whether it qualifies as a "system". Normally, a system is based purely on statistics and does not take into account personal "gut feelings". I am not being negative... I just think that perhaps this thread may be more appropriate for the "Glory Hunter's Forum".... it's up to you ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? Nice start' date= CzechPunter :clap.... and good luck with tonight's selections :hope. On the question of your selection method, I'm not sure whether it qualifies as a "system". Normally, a system is based purely on statistics and does not take into account personal "gut feelings". I am not being negative... I just think that perhaps this thread may be more appropriate for the "Glory Hunter's Forum".... it's up to you ;) Yes u're very right, someone need definition of a system:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? Well, if any moderator believes it should be moved, then so be it. But with regards to the question whether this is a system or not - well, it is hard to judge - obviously, it is partly based on statistics, but relies on hand-picking as well. Decide for yourself. For today's predictions: S.Greul to bt. J.Melzer @ 3.440 :eyes cancelled (0) M.Russel (+6) to bt. A.Murray @ 1.952 :clap (+1.9) A.Molik to bt. J.Zheng @ 2.890 :wall (-2) Lost tiebreak in third :( N.Petrova to bt. C.Wozniacki @ 2.610 :wall (-2) S.Stosur to bt. V.Zvonareva @ 2.760 :clap (+3.52) Starting bank 100 Current bank 104.3 Total staked 18 Number of bets 9 Winning bets 4 Losing bets 5 Strike rate 44.4% Yield 23.9% Profit (or Loss) +4.3 So far, so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? A promising start. Well done :ok Out of interest, how do Pinnacle's odds compare to other bookies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? Well, they are excellent from my experience, especially the odds on the underdogs. Today (not much, late phase already): J.Zheng to bt. C.Wozniacki @ 2.940 I.Ljubicic to bt. N.Djokovic @ 3.600 J.Isner to bt. R.Nadal @ 4.220 (ONLY 1pt HERE) N.Almagro to bt. A.Murray @ 6.160 (ONLY 1pt HERE) J.Melzer to bt. A.Roddick @ 4.550 (ONLY 1pt HERE) :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 18, 2010 Author Share Posted March 18, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? J.Zheng to bt. C.Wozniacki @ 2.940 :wall (-2) I.Ljubicic to bt. N.Djokovic @ 3.600 :clap (+5.2) J.Isner to bt. R.Nadal @ 4.220 (ONLY 1pt HERE) :wall (-1) N.Almagro to bt. A.Murray @ 6.160 (ONLY 1pt HERE) :wall (-1) J.Melzer to bt. A.Roddick @ 4.550 (ONLY 1pt HERE) :wall (-1) Starting bank 100 Current bank 104.5 Total staked 25 Number of bets 14 Winning bets 5 Losing bets 9 Strike rate 35.7% Yield 18% Profit (or Loss) +4.5 So far, so good. Only one pick for today and then I will have to wait until another more serious tennis event (I do not really want to go into challengers and stuff like that, although I do not doubt that significant profit can be made there). M.J. Martinez Sanchez to bt. S.Stosur @ 2.470 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? Ok, then. That was a loss :( Starting bank 100 Current bank 102.5 Total staked 27 Number of bets 15 Winning bets 5 Losing bets 10 Strike rate 33.3% Yield 9% Profit (or Loss) +2.5 Today: R.Soderling to bt. A.Murray @ 2.630 S.Stosur to bt. J.Jankovic @ 2.340 J. Isner/S. Querrey to bt. D. Nestor/N. Zimonjic @ 2.920 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? R.Soderling to bt. A.Murray @ 2.630 :clap (+3.26) S.Stosur to bt. J.Jankovic @ 2.340 (-2) J. Isner/S. Querrey to bt. D. Nestor/N. Zimonjic @ 2.920 (-2) Starting bank 100 Current bank 101.76 Total staked 33 Number of bets 18 Winning bets 6 Losing bets 12 Strike rate 33.3% Yield 5.3% Profit (or Loss) +1.76 Will wait for next majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: The Tennis System? CzechPunter good luck !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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