BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 First of all: Muppet, the title is no offense, it just makes the thread look more interesting. And, in some way, its a kind of ad for your thread, isnt it? :tongue2 I have made a system for the corner spread market that i want to share here. Its based on a corner equity (CE) that i compute by analyzing the last 32 games of the two involved teams. I did not backtest it regarding actual odds, but my analysis gave me a coefficient of determination of 95% (i compared my CE with the mean number of corners taken in all matches with this CE). Therefore i will compute a difference by applying (diff) = |1-(CE)/(odds)| and look at the profit via a) selecting all value bets b) selecting only value bets with a difference of 5% or more. This is a paper trial. I start with a bank of 100 pts and stake 1 pt on each selection. I will measure the success in two ways (apart of the overall profit, obv.): 1) Profit per Bet 2) Yield, computed as in Muppets thread: (Yield) = (Profit won)/(Profit won+Profit lossed) Lets hope this works out. EDIT: Some points i forgot to mention: - I only place bets in Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 - I got the coeffeizient of determination by taking all CE's for which there were more than 100 games with this CE. These CE's are 9.5 to 11.6, and i will only bet on matches with a CE in this interval (this eliminates more than half of the matches of Ligue 1). There was one statistical outliner at 11.3 (with a mean number of corners of 11.68) that i have omitted to get the stated coeffizient. Therefore it might be interesting to take a closer look at games with a CE of 11.3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" The first selection is a PL match this evening. all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Result P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield St. 100 100 1 Tottenham Fulham 10.8 11.4 6% Sell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" No offence mate! Will follow with interest. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" BeXXs ... good luck with this you've put a lot of work and thought into this.:ok A quick question the odds indicated of 11.4 ? .... where is this taken from and what bets are you proposing ? Selling on spreads or possibly unders on betfair/bookies corners market ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Im selling/buying on the betfair corner spread. Perhaps the term 'odds' is not appropriate in this case, but i do not know how 'the number you sell/buy at in spread markets' is called. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" The first selection missed, lets see what Everton and Sunderland do this evening. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield St. 100 100 1 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham 10.8 11.4 5.6% Sell 1 14 -2.6 97.4 -2.6 0.0% 97.4 -2.6 0.0% 2 27/01/10 PL Everton Sunderland 11.3 11.4 0.9% Sell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Unlucky mate. Your yield after game 1 isn't zero. Its minus 100. Will follow this with interest. Looking forward to the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Unlucky mate. Your yield after game 1 isn't zero. Its minus 100. Will follow this with interest. Looking forward to the weekend. Youre right mate, ive fixed this. Everton and Sunderland managed 11 corners for a small profit. The next match is played this evening, featuring Hamburg and Wolfsburg. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield St. 100 100 1 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham 10.8 11.4 5.6% Sell 1 14 -2.6 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 2 27/01/10 PL Everton Sunderland 11.3 11.4 0.9% Sell 1 11 0.38 97.78 -1.11 -74.5% 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 3 29/01/10 BL Hamburg Wolfsburg 10.9 10.6 2.8% Buy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" We had a loss of 0.6 points in yesterdays match. Lets hope todays selections have more quality and turn the profit positive. Maybe i will add La Coruna vs Real later, but the odds arent satiesfying yet. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield St. 100 100 1 26/01/10 PL Tottenham Fulham 10.8 11.4 5.6% Sell 1 14 -2.6 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 2 27/01/10 PL Everton Sunderland 11.3 11.4 0.9% Sell 1 11 0.38 97.78 -1.11 -74.5% 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 3 29/01/10 BL Hamburg Wolfsburg 10.9 10.6 2.8% Buy 1 10 -0.6 97.18 -0.94 -78.8% 97.4 -2.6 -100.0% 4 30/01/10 PL Liverpool Bolton 11.4 11.5 0.9% Sell 1 5 30/01/10 SA Napoli Genoa 9.7 10.2 5.2% Sell 1 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Napoli and Genoa made for 7 corners and lead at least one yield into positive numbers. But with only 6 bets placed so far there is a lot that can be done with future bets. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 2 27/01/10 PL Everton Sunderland 11.3 11.4 0.9% Sell 1 11 0.38 97.78 -1.11 -74% 97.4 -2.6 -100% 3 29/01/10 BL Hamburg Wolfsburg 10.9 10.6 2.8% Buy 1 10 -0.6 97.18 -0.94 -79% 97.4 -2.6 -100% 4 30/01/10 PL Liverpool Bolton 11.4 11.5 0.9% Sell 1 14 -2.5 94.68 -1.33 -87% 97.4 -2.6 -100% 5 30/01/10 SA Napoli Genoa 9.7 10.2 5.2% Sell 1 7 3.04 97.72 -0.46 -25% 100.44 0.22 8% 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 12 -1.7 96.02 -0.66 -37% 100.44 0.22 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Hopefully tonights match between Sunderland and Stoke is full of attacking and corners! Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 3 29/01/10 BL Hamburg Wolfsburg 10.9 10.6 2.8% Buy 1 10 -0.6 97.18 -0.94 -79% 97.4 -2.6 -100% 4 30/01/10 PL Liverpool Bolton 11.4 11.5 0.9% Sell 1 14 -2.5 94.68 -1.33 -87% 97.4 -2.6 -100% 5 30/01/10 SA Napoli Genoa 9.7 10.2 5.2% Sell 1 7 3.04 97.72 -0.46 -25% 100.44 0.22 8% 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 12 -1.7 96.02 -0.66 -37% 100.44 0.22 8% 7 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke 11.4 11.1 2.6% Buy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 2, 2010 Author Share Posted February 2, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Hopefully tonights match between Sunderland and Stoke is full of attacking and corners! Nope, an awful boring goalless draw. At least they took ten corners, so the loss is not to great. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 5 30/01/10 SA Napoli Genoa 9.7 10.2 5.2% Sell 1 7 3.04 97.72 -0.46 -25% 100.44 0.22 8% 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 12 -1.7 96.02 -0.66 -37% 100.44 0.22 8% 7 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke 11.4 11.1 2.6% Buy 1 10 -1.1 94.92 -0.73 -43% 100.44 0.22 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 2, 2010 Author Share Posted February 2, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" I have discovered that there are more bookies that offer spread bets, so i wont stick solely to betfair anymore. I have a feeling that Hull and Chelsea will turn the trend around tonight. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Bookie P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 Betfair 12 -1.7 96.02 -0.66 -37% 100.44 0.22 8% 7 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke 11.4 11.1 2.6% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.1 94.92 -0.73 -43% 100.44 0.22 8% 8 02/02/10 PL Hull Chelsea 11.6 12 3.4% Sell 1 Extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 3, 2010 Author Share Posted February 3, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Another loss, but i do not lose my faith. The next selections covers Fulham and Portsmouth. Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Bookie P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 6 30/01/10 PD Gijon Barcelona 10 10.3 3.0% Sell 1 Betfair 12 -1.7 96.02 -0.66 -37% 100.44 0.22 8% 7 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke 11.4 11.1 2.6% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.1 94.92 -0.73 -43% 100.44 0.22 8% 8 02/02/10 PL Hull Chelsea 11.6 12 3.4% Sell 1 Extrabet 14 -2 92.92 -0.88 -51% 100.44 0.22 8% 9 03/02/10 PL Fulham Portsmouth 11.3 11.2 0.9% Buy 1 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 3, 2010 Author Share Posted February 3, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" As discussed in the other corner thread, there were 15 corners taken in yesterdays match instead of 14. Since the forum rules say 'absolutely no editing of posts that contain selections', i will adjust it the next time i post some results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 4, 2010 Author Share Posted February 4, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" The trend goes on ... Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Bookie P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 7 01/02/10 PL Sunderland Stoke 11.4 11.1 2.6% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.1 94.92 -0.73 -43% 100.44 0.22 8% 8 02/02/10 PL Hull Chelsea 11.6 12 3.4% Sell 1 Extrabet 15 -3 91.92 -1.01 -54% 100.44 0.22 8% 9 03/02/10 PL Fulham Portsmouth 11.3 11.2 0.9% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.2 90.72 -1.03 -58% 100.44 0.22 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Next bet: Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Bookie P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 8 02/02/10 PL Hull Chelsea 11.6 12 3.4% Sell 1 Extrabet 15 -3 91.92 -1.01 -54% 100.44 0.22 8% 9 03/02/10 PL Fulham Portsmouth 11.3 11.2 0.9% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.2 90.72 -1.03 -58% 100.44 0.22 8% 10 06/02/10 PL Liverpool Everton 11 11.3 2.7% Sell 1 Extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" and 5 more bets for today Corn. Taken all differences Difference >= 5% No Date Lge Home Away CE Odds Diff. Selection Stake Bookie P/L Bank Pr./Bet Yield Bank Pr./Bet Yield 9 03/02/10 PL Fulham Portsmouth 11.3 11.2 0.9% Buy 1 Betfair 10 -1.2 90.72 -1.03 -58% 100.44 0.22 8% 10 06/02/10 PL Liverpool Everton 11 11.3 2.7% Sell 1 Extrabet 11 06/02/10 PL Hull Man City 11.7 11.25 3.8% Buy 1 Spin 12 06/02/10 PL Man United Portsmouth 11.5 12.25 6.5% Sell 1 Spin 13 06/02/10 PL Tottenham Aston Villa 11.5 12.5 8.7% Sell 1 Spin 14 07/02/10 PD Barcelona Getafe 10.5 11.5 9.5% Sell 1 Spin 15 08/02/10 PD Real Madrid Espanol 10.9 11 0.9% Sell 1 Spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzfish Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" Hi, Sorry to ask a slightly unrelated question here, but I see you use Betfair for spread bets. I have been looking around for the Betfair spreads but can't seem to find them. Could you possibly direct me or send a link? Kind regards JF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 9, 2010 Author Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" @JF: Betfair offers corner spread markets only on a few matches. Look for the ones in the big leagues (BL, PL, SA, PD) that are played at a unique time, with no other match being played at the same time, and you will find what youre searching for. @All: Unfortunately, i will be busy the next weeks and do not have the time to keep this system going. But since it seems to be a loosing one, it might not be that hard of a loss. Good luck and all the best for your bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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