lunatism Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Match Ratings -snappy title coming soon Sheff United came in though in the cup...... In full knowledge of the risks involved in cup games, I am going to take Newcastle Did you backtest on cup games too? Because if you have, then it wouldn't be so much of a risk - because then at least you would have some stats behind you to settle the nerves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 13, 2010 Author Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Pullein Power This thread is my backtesting :lol :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Pullein Power This thread is my backtesting :lol :\ :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 13, 2010 Author Share Posted January 13, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: Match Ratings -snappy title coming soon ...the Copa del rey is a bookies dream What makes you say that? (inspite of being in Spain for the last 3/4 months, the only game of note that stirred any passion up within the locals was the spanking of Madrid by Alcorcon.... (well done for tonight btw :clap) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Have a look in the copa del rey threads and see how many people are losing on it, even I wont touch it and I would bet on midget wrestling :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Have a look in the copa del rey threads and see how many people are losing on it' date=' even I wont touch it and I would bet on midget wrestling :lol[/quote'] Can't be any worse than African Nations Cup? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power I am not sure if that is the correct way to calculate value or not to be honest. It is the way I'd do it but I can not confirm if it is correct or not My maths isnt very good but what I have tried to acheive is expressing value as the difference between actual and fair odds as a percentage of the actual odds. I have done this using the calculation actual odds divided by fair odds minus 1. So for your sum it would be: actual 4 / fair 2 = 2 2 minus 1 = 1 or 100% Another example would be fair 2 actual 1.75 actual 1.75/fair2 = 0.875 0.875 -1 = minus 0.125 or minus 12.5% Is that the right way to do it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power I looked into it. An easier way is simply actual odds x probability. Here 100% would be fair value, anything under is bad value. My clacs now use this but I also subtract 100% from the answer so 0% is fair value. Anything negative would be bad value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Can't be any worse than African Nations Cup? :loon Probably not :lol I gave up on the ANC after day one :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power ProbabilityOddsValueOddsValueOddsValueHomeAwayHDAHHDDAABayernHoffenheim67%24%9%1.45-1% 4.33%8-28% Fridays game Likely winner selection: Bayern Value selection: Draw Likely winner AND value selection: No bet Value in the draw for this one and I was very tempted to go for this, especially as the friday night bundesliga games often go against the formbook, and its the first game back after winter break. But Bayern are highly likely winners and the price is near enough to fair. So Im going to go for Bayern, there is 1.5 available on betfair and after commission this is nudging fair odds. FRIDAY BET BAYERN MUNICH at 1.5 betfair before commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Im going to poke my "Draw No Bet" stick into this thread again EDIT: Having seen the price at 1.11 you wonder if its worth it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Re: Pullein Power If Ive worked it out correctly then fair odds for Bayern draw no bet would be 1.13 :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Re: Pullein Power FRIDAY BET BAYERN MUNICH at 1.5 betfair before commission WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Saturdays system results Likely winners profit: 3.24 from 26 staked Likely winners excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20%: 2.14 from 25 staked Value selections 3.36 profit from 26 staked Value excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20%: 1.87 loss from 22 staked Hybrid selections: 0.86 profit from 15 staked Hybrid excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20%: 0.13 profit from 14 stakes Good day for the value selections thanks to a couple of big priced draws coming in (Celtic Falkirk and Spurs Hull). Hybrid selections only just broke even today. Excluding the +/- 20% value selections didnt go as well as I hoped. I guess its not an original discovery but the value selections are certainly interesting. The strike rate is awful, really bad, but it keeps hitting with one or two big prices that makes them as profitable than backing the likely winners in all games where the strike rate is far higher. The big problem with this system is going to be variance, with such a low strike rate. Excluding the + or - 20% value selections didnt go so well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Pullein Power ProbabilityOddsValueOddsValueOddsValueHomeAwayHDAHHDDAANewcastleWest Brom54%28%18%2.113%3.4-5%3.75-33% MONDAY BET NEWCASTLE @ 2.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Stats so far: Likely Winners Only selections staked 91.00 profit 11.27 yield 12% Wins 46 strike rate 51% Likely winners excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 77.00 profit 8.80 yield 11% Wins 38 strike 49% Value selections only staked 92.00 profit 6.17 yield 7% Wins 37 strike 40% Value selections excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 76.00 profit 5.49 yield 7% Wins 29 strike 38% Hybrid selections (Selections where team is most likely winner AND value) staked 44.00 profit 5.69 yield 13% Wins 22 strike 50% Hybrid selections excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 37.00 profit 6.16 yield 17% Wins 19 strike 51% So the value selections are in profit, and any profit is good in this game, but they are the worst of the three options in terms of both strike rate and profitability so far. Still not sure what is the best way forward with this...really feel like I should pick one of the three systems and stick to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 19, 2010 Author Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power I wonder why the value selections are doing so badly. Bookmakers dont set their prices to reflect who they think will win, they set their prices to ensure they get relatively equal amounts placed on each of the three outcomes. Therefore, on a yield basis, the value selections should achieve a lower strike rate but higher yield than just backing the most likely winner. Yet so far, over 93 bets, yield for value selections is half that acheived by backing the most likely winners. I appreciate the sample size is small, but I am losing faith in 'value' strategy a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 19, 2010 Author Share Posted January 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Don't lose faith just yet bud :ok. The sample size is still small as yet .... If it helps a "value" method I follow hasn't been performing well lately, the expected strike rate is lower than it should be. Try this as a test - take the average odds of all the value selections lets say 4.26 decimal as an example ..... the formula is (1/(odds-1)) = 1/3.26 = 0.3067 = 30.67% compare that to the strike rate you are actually achieving for the value picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power If you have read the Pullein book page for page, you will know he has said that little can be understood from small sample sizes. A bad start to a system, doesn't always mean its a bad system (and vice versa) He also states that blindly backing favourite's isnt a long term profitable system. And finally (perhaps most importantly) professional gamblers are only claiming to return a yield of around 8%. Backing value selections "should" bring you consistent but small profits. They are never likely to bring exceedingly high strike rates or yields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 19, 2010 Author Share Posted January 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power As I have hinted previously I dont think you can just back the ones with the biggest value because once you are getting value of over + or - 20% the results are not good...usually this just means your ratings are wrong or havent accounted for something like the situation' date=' team news etc.[/quote'] I started a thread somewhere called "inverse value" sorry can't find the link it's very interesting that whatever rating system is used the bigger the value rating the worse they seem to perform and going against them is usually more profitable. How about checking value bands ? Say 0-10% 11-20% 21-30% ... etc...etc or you could try 0-15% ... 16-30% ...etc ...etc Same with negative value. This way you may see a band that is "intune" with results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power How about checking value bands ? Say 0-10% 11-20% 21-30% ... etc...etc or you could try 0-15% ... 16-30% ...etc ...etc Same with negative value. This way you may see a band that is "intune" with results. ..... or, assuming you have all the data in an Excel worksheet, add 2 columns... the first showing the results of placing a 1 unit "Home Win" bet on all matches.... the second column showing the running "Home Bet Bank". Then, insert a simple line chart of the "Home Bet Bank".... then, "sort" the data in descending order of "Home Value". Inspect the chart to establish the range of positive increase in "Home Bet Bank" (if any) and this will give you the optimum range of "Home Value". You could do the same for Draws and Aways, although I have always found it difficult to establish any positive trends for Aways and Draws...... And if anybody can understand all this, then I'm a monkey's uncle :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Pullein Power I think we will see a big increase in value selection profits after it picked the 6/1 draw in the Rangers cup game. However I dont trust the Liverpool or Macclesfield selections as value is too high. Something isnt right. So Im just going to go for: :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 20, 2010 Author Share Posted January 20, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Staines passive - the big priced draw landed last night did not have a huge value percentage. Rangers v Hamilton was the game and the price was 6-1. The 'value' rating was 16%. Which is pretty high, but it was a bet under the value method. Anything with value rating of more than +/- 20% is suspicious, as kanga points out results are worse if you take these bets. The prices cant be that wrong without a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted January 20, 2010 Author Share Posted January 20, 2010 Re: Pullein Power Results after last nights games Good night for the value selection, bad night for the most likely winners and hybrid selections. Maybe value is the way to go after all :tongue2 Most Likely Winners staked 104.00 profit 7.77 yield 7% Wins 58 strike 56% Most likely winners excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 89.00 profit 6.30 yield 7% Wins 49 strike 55% Value selections staked 102.00 profit 10.08 yield 10% Wins 46 strike 45% Value selections excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 85.00 profit 10.4 yield 12% Wins 38 strike 45% Hybrid selections (most likely winner AND value) staked 52.00 profit 2.90 yield 6% Wins 28 strike 54% Hybrid selections (most likely winner AND value) excluding selections where value is more than +/- 20% staked 44.00 profit 4.37 yield 10% Wins 25 strike 57% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.