UK General Election

[AJ]

Page 1, post1, line 1. - This is a betting thread in a betting sub forum. If you want to discuss politics, then General Chat is the place to do so :ok Open for discussion of any related bets. Betfair have a pile to related markets. Let's start with the results from last time round

Last election		413 seats, 40.7%	166 seats, 31.7%	52 seats, 18.3%
Seats won		356	198	62
Seat change		-47	+33	+11
Popular vote		9,562,122	8,772,598	5,981,874
Percentage		35.3%	32.3%	22.1%
Swing		-5.5%	+0.6%	+3.7%

Couple of things that have caught my eye. Most Seats Convervatives 1.14 Labour 7.8 Lib Dems 280 I think this is pretty much nailed on free money. Can't see any situation where the tories will not come ahead in the basic seat count, esp with Labour likely to lose seats in Scotland to the SNPs. Overall majority The more interesting market for me Conservatives 1.42 No Overall majority 4.2 Labour 14 Any other 220 Last time it only took, 26,859 votes to elect a labour mp. 44,306 to elect a tory mp, 96,481 to elect a lib dem. Let's ignore the shocking unfairness of this and ask just how far ahead the tories need to be to actually get a majority? I'm thinking between 6% - 8%. With the recent firming of the labour vote in local goverment elections over the past two months and closing in the poll, I;m actually thinking that the 1.42 for the tories is too short. Sure they're favourites but I think they can be laid and backed at higher odds later. An interesting study here (http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?hungparl.html) the probability of a no overall majority to be 29%; making the current 4.2 on offer simply huge

[stereoman]

Re: Uk General Election Yeah, 'Hung parliament' seems to be kind of a 'popular' shout as to what will happen. Good site to have a look at ---> http://politicalbetting.com/