fintron Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 1.50 Southwell This looks a really good handicap in which Ingleby Arch is likely to start favourite. David Barron has shown with Jaconet and Sirvino this season he is tremendous at placing his horses to rack up sequences and defy huge cumulative increases in the weights. The record of his gelding over six furlongs on fibresand is six wins from ten starts. A low draw will help too. My prices to beat: Ingleby Arch 9/4, Felday 9/2, Espirit de Midas 11/2, Turn on The Style 13/2, Confushias 9/1, Flowing Cape 11/1, Indian Skipper 25/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 12:20 Southwell Lucky Mellor has that all important course win under his belt. That win came over today's distance as well and he has 1 win and one 2nd from his 2 course and distance runs. Seems to run consistently on the AW with 1 win and 4 places from 7 runs. Also ran a close 4th on one of his unplaced efforts. Has been 3rd off a mark of 73 in his last 2 outings, one on turf and one at Wolverhampton so another solid effort off the same mark is expected here today at a course he has already proved he can win on. 1 pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 15:25 Southwell Saute ran a solid race over course and distance LTO when finishing 2nd to Stagecoach Emerald who runs in the race before this so if she wins again this could potentially boost the form of my selection in this race. Saute did win at Kempton in the race before over 12 furlongs and ran on well that day so the further trip LTO was an obvious choice. He gets to run off the same mark as that race when 2nd so he is still only 4lbs higher than his win at Kempton. Only has 8 runs to date and is 3 years old so plenty of improvement still to come in my opinion. 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Tip Detail Tip Detail Sport Horse Racing Event SOUTHWELL - 12:50 Selection BRIGADOON Strength 10/10 Date 05/12/2009 Bookmaker/Price >Bet365 @ SP (Back) Reasoning SOUTHWELL 12:50 Toteswinger Three Ways To Win Maiden Auction Stakes (2yo, Class 6, 5f, 8 runners) BACK: BRIGADOON Some promise on debut at Newmarket when 8TH of 16 in October, beaten 6 3/4L. Next was here lto for 2ND being no match to the progressive VEGAS PALACE. Both over 7f but trainer form suggest the drop in trip to 5f is no worry. W Jarvis the last 14 days have 7 runs for 3 wins and 3 more in 2ND. His form here the last 5 seasons is 7 wins 34, 2yo's and 3yo's at 7 from 24. Close Window Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 1.50 Southwell Ingleby Arch 9/4, Felday 9/2, Espirit de Midas 11/2, Turn on The Style 13/2, Confushias 9/1, Flowing Cape 11/1, Indian Skipper 25/1 Turn on the style is now a non runner and at the available prices i think ingleby arch is the bet, 9/4 sporting bet, 1.5 pt win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 11:50 Southwell: Merrion Tiger 2pts win 1pt place 12/1 Paddy Power If and its a fairly big if, Merrion Tiger could find some of his old form here, he would be a handicap snip. He is two from two at Southwell and now six pounds lower than one of those wins and thirteen lower than the other. He is reunited with Greg Fairley who rode him both times and trainer travels down from Scotland for one runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 3:25 Southwell: Seminal Moment 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Bet365 Seminal Moment may be worth another chance. Last time out here was too bad to be true. Her previous run at Southwell when she beat The Last Don reads really well as that rival went on to win his next three races, finishing up on a much higher mark. Seb Saunders looks a good jockey booking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 11.50 ARCTIC WINGS 8/1 PP BOG is better over the jumps than the flat but hasn't run at the track but maybe the sort of surface that will suit this horse. Carry no weight and is worth a win bet to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 11.50 Southwell Cant see much to get excited about at a nice price, to me it seems to be the 3 market leaders have the leading claims. Swords won over CD on penultimate start but shaped as the handicapper had him just right finishing second and is up a further 3lb today and is still worth watching for. Stagecoach emerald ran a massively improved race last time out over CD and took the piss a little bit winning by 7lengths, but looks a difficult ride but when he got going he ran away with it. Up 7lb for that which is fair enough and same jockey booked. Jackie Kiely is a real southwell specialist having won 8 times round here from 35 starts and has shaped recently as if there is a win in him somewhere and has certainly been seeing out his racing well so the step up in trip could be the answer, although handicapper has noted his improved form putting him up 2lb but he is still well handicapped having won off marks as high as 70 now rated just 51. 0.75pt win Jackie kiely 3/1 bet365 0.25pt win stagecoach emerald 4/1 sj 1.50 Southwell Ingleby arch remains well handicapped on the back of 2 nice wins over CD but the form he is well handicapped on was way back when he was a 3yr old now 6yr old and handicapper may just have him now but nonetheless should run a solid race but the one that interests me at a bigger price is Esprit De Midas who is 3 from 4 over this course and have all been in much weaker races than this but Ryan can improve a horse to cope with big weight increases (kaolak comes to mind this year) is up 18lb since last win at course but did win off 11lb lower mark on turf when last seen, has been off the track for 200 days so fingers crossed he is fit and well. 0.5pt e/w Esprit De Midas 11/2 hills 2.20 Southwell Another real southwell specialist here in lucky punt who is now 4 from 5 round here and his only loss was a second to another southwell speciliast eseej in a competitive handicap this is far easier than that and his latest win and he is only upped 5lb for that which looks light in my opinion and should go well again. 2pt win lucky punt 6/4 hills 3.25 Southwell Probably the most competitive race on the card and I am gonna go with one that hasn’t any form on this surface. Major promise showed remarkable improved form on first outing in well over a year at wolverhampton, handicapper has changed his mark for that 5th place run and is sure to come on for the run and if taking to the surface should run a solid race, was hoping for a bit bigger price but he is still worth a small bet. 0.5pt win major promise 9/2 vcbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 11:50 Southwell: Merrion Tiger 2pts win 1pt place 12/1 Paddy Power If and its a fairly big if, Merrion Tiger could find some of his old form here, he would be a handicap snip. He is two from two at Southwell and now six pounds lower than one of those wins and thirteen lower than the other. He is reunited with Greg Fairley who rode him both times and trainer travels down from Scotland for one runner. :notworthy 1st Class Steve:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Great stuff matey:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Well done Steve may finish in profit yet Steve in cracking form!! Was a bit of a morning gamble from what ive heard??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Cheers Gents, yes pleased with that :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Tip Detail Tip Detail Sport Horse Racing Event SOUTHWELL - 13:20 Selection BUDVA (W/O The Favorite) (Each-Way) Strength 5/10 Date 05/12/2009 Bookmaker/Price >Paddy Power @ 6.00 (Back) Reasoning SOUTHWELL 13:20 E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 5, 1m, 11 runners) EACH WAY: BUDVA Twice raced here from two career runs, improving each time in 7TH and 3RD. Sired by KYLIAN, has two progency as course specialists in KYLKENNY and KENT. Both won the mojority of races here and BUDVA looks to be in the same route. Trainer H Morrison here the last 5 seasons is 4 from 14, 29% with 2yo's. He's very consistent here with the overall at 33 from 144, 23% last 5 seasons. W/O The Favorite (DOCTOR ZHIVAGO) at 5-1. Close Window Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec Tip Detail Tip Detail Sport Horse Racing Event SOUTHWELL - 13:50 Selection FELDAY (W/O The Favorite) Strength 10/10 Date 05/12/2009 Bookmaker/Price >Paddy Power @ 2.00 (Back) Reasoning SOUTHWELL 13:50 Toteexacta The Better Value Forecast Handicap (3yo+, Class 2, 6f, 6 runners) WIN: FELDAY One of two H Morrison runners here today and his record at the track is good. 33 wins from 144 the last 5 seasons, capable of winning at any age group. He has a surface debutant but his ability to win here makes that not a worry. FELDAY was beat by better horses than there is here today last month. In 3RD of 20 runners by 1 1/4L to COLLATERAL DAMAGE and MIA'S BOY. It was on Soft going so today will not make too big of a difference. Small field, likes to go quick early, good chance to be get away from up front. W/O The Favorite (INGLEBY ARCH) at 1-1, Paddy Power. Close Window Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: Southwell - Sat 5th Dec 15:25 Southwell Saute ran a solid race over course and distance LTO when finishing 2nd to Stagecoach Emerald who runs in the race before this so if she wins again this could potentially boost the form of my selection in this race. Saute did win at Kempton in the race before over 12 furlongs and ran on well that day so the further trip LTO was an obvious choice. He gets to run off the same mark as that race when 2nd so he is still only 4lbs higher than his win at Kempton. Only has 8 runs to date and is 3 years old so plenty of improvement still to come in my opinion. 1pt win 7/2 winner that will do :nana Well done Steve :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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