ipt123 Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Posted the wrong title, so made a new thread as there's no option to change it. This question is mainly for those members like Muppet77 and Jtw1 that have tried many systems. I have been paper trailing an asian handicap system that has produced the following stats: Games: 152 Profit(1 pt on each game): 30.50 pts Yield: 20% Average odds: 1.80 These results are 50% backtesting and 50% paper trailing. Are these enough games to ensure that this is a reliable system? If not, how far would I need to paper trail to ensure reliability? I see Muppet has named his corner spread system as possibly being the 'holy grail' after 190 bets. I'm fast approaching this mark. Any comments are appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 13, 2009 Author Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield These are a system for all leagues all divisions. When only making bets from the top flight of each country the yield is considerably higher with the following statistics: Games: 110 Profit (1pt each game): 28.8 pts Yield: 26.2% Average odds: 1.80 So my second question is: is it reasonable to expect a higher yield from top flight of leagues because of a) less chance for corruption and b) more motivation as they are more in the spotlight with larger group of supporters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield I would be chuffed with those stats. Well done. However have you searched the data with different tweaks looking for profit? If so you are guilty of data mining. You say that half the stats come from back testing. The only way to see is to reset the stats to zeroes and proof your selections on this thread. Then have another look after a few hundred games. Good look mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 13, 2009 Author Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield I would be chuffed with those stats. Well done. However have you searched the data with different tweaks looking for profit? If so you are guilty of data mining. You say that half the stats come from back testing. The only way to see is to reset the stats to zeroes and proof your selections on this thread. Then have another look after a few hundred games. Good look mate. Resetting the stats to 0 and only following current games has produced 16% yield for all leagues and a 32% yield in the top flight. As for posting games in this forum I might consider that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield ok mate. If its that simple then won't the bookies have looked at it already? Good luck anyhow, looking forward to seeing it should you decide to proof it here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 13, 2009 Share Posted November 13, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield As for posting games in this forum I might consider that' date=' but I'm concerned about the simplicity of the system and how others may figure it out eventually. Not too simple, but simple enough.[/quote'] I think the whole point of this Forum is to share systems and selections so that everybody can chose whether or not to follow you.... and make a profit :hope. I think you will find that most PL authors are completely open about their systems, so others don't have to "figure it out". As for the bookies..... I don't think they will be unduly concerned.... I think there are enough punters out there who do NOT follow the various system posted on this forum..... so there will not be too much of a dent in their huge profits. ;) PS.... you can change thread titles by going to your own profile, listing threads started by yourself, and edit the title there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 14, 2009 Author Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield yes but what happens when the system works and everyones stake slowly gets large enough for bookies to notice, whats the point in searching for a system that works if the bookies render it useless by changing the odds...thanks for the help with editing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield There are enough systems that the bookies cant set there odds against them all or they would never get a price put out. If your not going to post the games your betting on I don't really see the point of this thread? Its more a boast about some bets you might/might not have had and cash that you may/may not have won? Seems a little pointless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 14, 2009 Share Posted November 14, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield You've certainly got some cheek ipt, coming on a betting forum as a newby to ask advice from seasoned PL contributors like muppet & jtw1 who always share their systems, whilst you're not prepared to share yours!:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield The internet is a source of information and I got what I was looking for, if Muppet shared your views he wouldn't have answered me, which is why I asked him and not you. I was considering posting the system but Bedlam has once again reminded me that forums are just full of people looking for an excuse to bitch about something. But don't worry, karma will probably bite me in the ass for this and wreck the next 100 results of my system....Hopefully not :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield I was considering posting the system but Bedlam has once again reminded me that forums are just full of people looking for an excuse to bitch about something. I think you will find that if you expose details of your system, then the feedback you get will be constructive and supportive.... not "bitchy".... I'm talking about PL - I don't know about other forums ;). Anyway, I assume from your attitude that you are not going to be "open" about your system..... so, as Staines Passive said, it all seems rather pointless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield Good luck with your system. Your yield is higher than most pro gamblers make a living from. But; I think 150 (or 190) games is not enough to ensure the reliability of any system, although it's a start. You're saying your system is for all leagues, all divisions. Well, with 152 games tested you certainly can't have gone in-depth for each league, each division. If you had done that you'd also have the answers to your second questions (in your 2nd post). Apart from that, there's not much to say given your one-way attitude towards forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield Good luck with your system. Your yield is higher than most pro gamblers make a living from. But; I think 150 (or 190) games is not enough to ensure the reliability of any system, although it's a start. You're saying your system is for all leagues, all divisions. Well, with 152 games tested you certainly can't have gone in-depth for each league, each division. If you had done that you'd also have the answers to your second questions (in your 2nd post). Apart from that, there's not much to say given your one-way attitude towards forums. Thanks for the post Lardinio, this has been by far the most helpful. The problem is, if I were to attempt to follow a single league it would take years to have a long enough paper trail to get any reliable information. When setting out to find a system, and having thrown several away, I wanted to find one that was a truism for all leagues, all soccer matches. Is it not possible for one system to encompass all leagues? I see from Muppet's posts that his corner spreads come from several different leagues. My attitude toward forums comes from moderators constantly looking for something to bitch about to make their job worthwhile. It's just turned me off even though I am a regular contributor to SoccerVista forums for daily picks, their mods have always been friendly. Anyways if I am this far away from proofing my system I might post my picks here just to keep track and get more feedback......your post has given me some encouragement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield Mate this is an exceptionally friendly forum with many knowledgeable Punters who are interested and willing. I think it is customary to proof bets here first before talking about previous history. Many have come and gone after falling at this hurdle. Hope you enjoy it and above all keep proofing if it is something that you firmly believe in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield Is it not possible for one system to encompass all leagues? I see from Muppet's posts that his corner spreads come from several different leagues. I think it might be possible to find a system that works on all leagues in all countries, but it's certainly impossible to say for certain without doing some testing. I know Muppet77 feels a 'holy grail' system should work on all leagues, but personally I would be more than happy to make a profit on just a selection of leagues ;) If it's impossible to do back-testing, and do remember that Football Data has a lot of data from a lot of leagues for lots of seasons to test on, then you just have to do what I personally think is the most enjoyable - put some pennies on and do some real testing by actually using the system. It's a time-consuming way of gaining data, but it's also the only way that puts the theory to the real test, it's the 'it' - gambling! You can't really gamble without a certain degree of uncertainty :lol so just go for it :ok Who knows, if your yield continues you'll make a healthy profit a long the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield I think it might be possible to find a system that works on all leagues in all countries, but it's certainly impossible to say for certain without doing some testing. I know Muppet77 feels a 'holy grail' system should work on all leagues, but personally I would be more than happy to make a profit on just a selection of leagues ;) If it's impossible to do back-testing, and do remember that Football Data has a lot of data from a lot of leagues for lots of seasons to test on, then you just have to do what I personally think is the most enjoyable - put some pennies on and do some real testing by actually using the system. It's a time-consuming way of gaining data, but it's also the only way that puts the theory to the real test, it's the 'it' - gambling! You can't really gamble without a certain degree of uncertainty :lol so just go for it :ok Who knows, if your yield continues you'll make a healthy profit a long the way. Thanks for the website I'm gonna check it out tonight and see if it can help. I always assumed that you if a system didn't work for different leagues then it couldn't be dependable in one league over many seasons. I guess I was wrong about this. I've already started placing 15$ stakes for the past few bets and have netted 25$ so far. I'm going to continue but being in the U.S. keeps my sportsbooks options very limited and odds are not always the best. However, I will be moving to Germany for a few months in the spring so hopefully I can find better action then. There are no bets for the next 2 days I've already checked, will probably have to wait for Thursday before my first post. Thanks for the comments Muppet, the system has shown a consistent profit when looking at blocks of 20 games so I hope it will continue. Until Thursday..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 17, 2009 Author Share Posted November 17, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System: 150+ bets, 20% yield Wow, I just had a look at Football-data.co.uk. I wasn't aware of this site this should be incredibly helpful with backtesting. Thanks a lot Lardonio! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 17, 2009 Share Posted November 17, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) ipt123, it's up to you how much details of a system you post, at the same time anyone can express their opinion if you don't (nicely :lol) I did edit the title of the thread, unless you got 150 bets with 20% yield actually posted here on PL, you can't talk about results that way, it's misleading, you need to keep it under "paper trail". You do not neccesarily need to post every detail of a system, as long as the description clearly demonstrates a system exists off you go. You do need to post actual bets before the match in order to talk about actual resluts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren1969 Posted November 17, 2009 Share Posted November 17, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) i like to bet in the asian handicap (AH) market. i would like to share my method of AH betting. Let's take this weekend clash between liverpool vs man city. AH is set at liverpool -0.5. 1. calculate liverpool average home goal difference (goal difference/no. of home games) >>>>> +13/6 = +2.16 2. calculate man city away average goal difference (goal difference/no of away games) >>>>> +2/6 = +0.33 3. compare home team and away team average goals >>>> 2.16 - 0.33 = 1.83 Liverpool have 1.83 advantage over man city. Therefore pick LIVERPOOL AH -0.5 Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2009 Share Posted November 17, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) A nice simple system, Ren1969..... good luck with it. One comment though - I think you need to apply some sort of "weighting" to the goal differences for previous games.... for example a 2-0 away victory against a top-4 club should carry more "weight" than a 2-0 win against a team in the relegation zone. In this way, you are more likely to get a realistic prediction (perhaps not). Also, I would restrict the historical goal-difference statistics to the most recent 4 or 5 games.... some teams go in and out of form (Liverpool for example :loon). Anyway, I wish you every success :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren1969 Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) thanks for your comment Grex adding "weights", considering other previous stats like h2h, total shots on goals will definately give us a more realistic prediction...perhaps someone could explore further because calculating average is already hard work for me. another no brainer rule of thumb i like is "always back the underdog in cup games and important qualifying matches". last night this worked for me at the fa cup (refer: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f6/england-fa-cup-nov-17-18-a-93130/index2.html) so i'll have another go at it today in the world cup qualifiers.. greece +0.5 bosnia +0.25 slovenia +0.25 ireland +1.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ipt123 Posted November 18, 2009 Author Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) Ok I've started posting my selections in the following thread: Super AH System Hope you all enjoy. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted November 18, 2009 Share Posted November 18, 2009 Re: Asian Handicap System (discussion) Nice, it will be very interesting to follow the progress of this system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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