Your Professional bets~ Debate Only

[Gingertipster]

Thought I would start a thread where any PL member can put a tip in that they believe is a “professional bet”. Realise there are many different definitions of what a professional bet is; but in this case: You must believe his chance is much better (not just slightly over-priced) than the odds available imply. A price likely to crash. Not a thread each member should contribute to every day or even every week, just when he's seen outstanding value. So if you consider a horse to be a true 4/7 63.6% chance and is available at 4/5 52.4% it's a professional bet. Likewise one believed to be a 3/1 25% chance available at 9/2 18.2%; a 10/1 9% chance at 16/1 5.9%, 20/1 4.8% at 40/1 2.4% or 50/1 2% at 200/1 0.5% and so on. The bigger the price the less (percentage) difference is needed to be a professional bet. To help PL members who are not accustomed to the table of odds and chances, I here is an explanation that even a novice punter should understand. To make it easier for them to spot a “professional bet”. “Every punter knows for each £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back). For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = true odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning. Gamblers want to know “who's going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, who is “VALUE to win”. Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer: A 11/8 (42.1%), B 2/1 (33.3%), C 100/30 (23.1%), D 11/1 (8.3%). 42.1 + 33.3 + 23.1 + 8.3 = 106.8% Working to 106.8% for an over-round of 6.8%. Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes: A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning. B 30% almost 9/4 C 20% 4/1 D 10% 9/1 All four adding up to 100%. Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 11/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A's chance, a third of B's and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 11/1 showing a profit. Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 2/1 and 20% at 100/30 all result in a loss. (Though in our Professional Bets thread D would not constitute a bet as the value is only a marginal 1.7%. 10% - 8.3% = 1.7%). Even if a punter does not want to work out a race to 100%, knowing the table, seeing each price as a percentage and vice versa helps to find value. To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide by 100. So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 '/, 4 = 25%. 100/30 = 3.33/1 + 1 = 4.33, 100 '/, 4.33 = 23.1% And so on”. For odds in decimals (what you see on betfair or tote) there is no need to add the 1, just divide 100 by the figure. Here are the prices and their percentages. Evens 50, 21/20 48.8, 11/10 47.6, 6/5 45.5, 5/4 44.4, 11/8 42.1, 6/4 40, 13/8 38.1, 7/4 36.4, 15/8 34.8, 2/1 33.3, 85/40 32, 9/4 30.8, 5/2 28.6, 11/4 26.7, 3/1 25, 100/30 23.1, 7/2 22.2, 4/1 20, 9/2 18.2, 5/1 16.7, 11/2 15.4, 6/1 14.3, 13/2 13.3, 7/1 12.5, 15/2 11.7, 8/1 11.1, 17/2 10.5, 9/1 10, 10/1 9.1, 11/1 8.3, 12/1 7.7, 13/1 7.1, 14/1 6.7, 15/1 6.2, 16/1 5.9, 18/1 5.3, 20/1 4.8, 22/1 4.3, 25/1 3.8, 28/1 3.4, 33/1 3, 40/1 2.4, 50/1 2, 66/1 1.5, 80/1 1.2, 100/1 1, 132/1 0.75, 150/1 0.66, 200/1 0.5, 250/1 0.4, 300/1 0.33, 400/1 0.25, 500/1 0.2, 800/1 0.125, 1000/1 0.1, 2000/1 0.05 For an Evens shot to be a good bet you must believe it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on (see above). Though a margin for error should be factored in. Few gamblers are 100% accurate, so it may be best not to back what you consider a true 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more. For the benefit of this thread it should be considerably more. For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100. So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60% Mark

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional bets Great idea ginge ;) not something I get much chance to do because im a form backer the night before sadly due to work but is likely to be something I try and play around with this winter while the jumps are on ;) will certainly read through this all again and also apreciate any websites/books that would help me find out more about this type of betting?