billy the punter Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 My thinking is usually pretty clear in these things, most of us who play these types of SnG's know the right move most of the time. However a hand came up tonight and I wasn't sure if my move was correct. Thoughts? ***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 590523048 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $22 Buy-in + $2.20 Entry Fee, Level:5 Blinds(100/200-(no ante)) - Thursday, October 15, 22:31:22 GMT 2009 D2N Turbo NL Hold'em $24.20 #3433686 Table 1 6-max (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Total number of active players : 4 Seat 1: BohTom ( 2,397 ) Seat 2: sedov ( 1,010 ) Seat 5: seanlad ( 935 ) Seat 6: Harold Boom ( 1,658 ) Tourney Level:5 Blinds(100/200-(no ante)) Harold Boom posts small blind [100] BohTom posts big blind [200] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Harold Boom [ Th, Tc ] sedov folds seanlad goes all-in seanlad raises to [935] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma think i'd call but it's marginal. for a start your 10s are probably ahead,he could be pushing with pretty much any 2 here(although he could still have aces:\). if you call and lose you will still have a big enough stack to be a worry to the others. if you do call it could well bring bohtom into play,with 700 to call he might see this as an opportunity to try to take seanlad out and call check/check. its a turbo ,so it wont be long before your stack is looking small vs the blinds if you dont do something. with the biggest stack sitting after you it's always a worry you'll push at some point and he'll wake up with a monster:\. all in all i'd nearly always want to be the one pushing not calling in a don but i think all these factors would push me towards calling. how were they playing billy? you sometimes get a player that plays ultra tight hoping others will go out,if sean was one of them then i'd probably fold as it would take a half decent hand to get him to push. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma If this is one of a few pushes he has done in a long time then I think the right move is a fold but given his chip stack I don't think I can fold this any time. But this is the sort of hands I need to improve on in d2n because it always seems no matter if its a 6 handed dn2 or a 10 handed I'm the one always involved in the bubble hand which I need to fix up on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma how were they playing billy? Pretty average, perhaps edging towards tight. None of them putting anyone under any real pressue. I'd already recieved 2/3 walks at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma Interesting problem and couldnt make my mind up. So crunched some numbers in ICM (I dont believe, with the information available, I could come up with a better answer than ICM with this hand - come to that, I dont think anyone could). Conclusion I've reached is that it's a ????. I cant come to a conclusion - I've worked through this and changed my mind a number of times - I'm tending towards fold. Will delete most of my (flawed) analysis below and just leave some numbers in that I believe in to see if someone else can make some more sense of them. This is the value of each seat before the hand is dealt: Equity before handSedov$28.61seanlad$27.08Harold Boom$36.36BohTom$39.95 This is the value of the seats after the hand if you and Tom both fold: Both FoldSedov$27.35seanlad$31.14Harold Boom$34.77BohTom$38.74 Your equity falls by $1.59. If Tom calls, then your equity will be higher than this - so $34.77 is your worst case scenario if you fold. If you call, then it is complicated by what Tom does. Will he call? Will he raise? Will he check it down? What we can say is that if Tom calls and you both get to showdown, then your equity against seanlad increases - If Tom wins then you win! So it's your hand and Toms hand against Seans hand. Of course you lose some equity because you may be putting your tournament life at risk - however I'm happy to assume that the net effect if Tom calls is to increase your overall equity - so conservatively, I think we can exclude Tom from the equation and just look at what happens if you call and Tom folds. If you win the hand, then equity is pretty clear :) seanlad losesSedov$44.00seanlad$0.00Harold Boom$44.00BohTom$44.00 If you lose the hand (and Tom folded), then you're far from out of it: You Call, Tom Folds, You LoseSedov$29.92seanlad$39.24Harold Boom$23.11BohTom$39.73 If we win 55% of the time against his range, then our ev equity is (45% x $23.11) + (55% x $44) = $34.60. We have 55% equity against a range of about top 13% - That is something like 77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+. A random player in that situation I would certainly view is likely to be looser than top 13%. If we put sean on a range of 30% (55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,A5o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o), then we have 63.7% hand equity - so that's tournament equity of: (36.3% x $23.11) + (63.7% x $44) = $36.42 If we put Sean on Any Two Cards, then we have 75% hand equity for tournament equity of (25% x $23.11) + (75% x $44) = $38.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma I'm tending towards fold. Changed my mind (again :tongue2) Looking at those numbers again now without everything else I had around it, your tournament ev looks higher if you call (especially if his range is wide, as I believe it probably should be) even if you take into account that the $34.77 is an underestimate if you fold. (How much of an underestimate? What are the odds of Tom calling if you fold?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma I agree it's very close. If I thought I was better than the other players, then I think I should fold, as, in my experience, most of the bad play in the end-game is calling too loosely. If I call and win, the fact that I'm better gives me no extra edge. If I call and lose, then loose calling by the others is less to my advantage, since I'll have to shove sooner, and loose calls of my shoves are to the advantage of the other two players, not me. If I fold, there's a higher chance of a shove and loose call by two of the other players before I have to shove, which is to my advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma Think I'd call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Another Double Or Nothing Bubble Dilemma Thanks for some great replies. :clap I'm happy (for my game) to see that this tricky decision also has you just as flummoxed. I think it's the toughest decision I've faced in these games. GaF - I agree that his range should be that wide, however I doubt it is. Based on around 10 prior meetings I'd say his range is K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo+, A2o+, 22+ Slap - Pretty much agree with all of that. Prior to the hand I felt totally in control, no-one to worry about and was close to a cert to cash. I'd say I'd cash 80%+ of the time in this situation. If I believe that, then I think I have to fold. If I call and lose I have 3.5xBB, with the big stack to my left life would be tough. I just hate calling all-ins on the bubble, personally I see a 50/50 here as a total nightmare. :ok Harold Boom folds BohTom folds Returning uncalled bet [735] to seanlad ** Hand Conclusion ** seanlad wins 500 from main pot ************ Game 590523048 ends ************ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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