Grex Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 233 bets; +16% yield Udinese - Chievo has also risen up to 1.5 ;) Let's hope for a good weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 233 bets; +16% yield Hi Grex, Nice thread. Do you just take any bets between 1.50 and 1.80 or do you also apply any addition filter? If no filter then I suspect the good performance is due to a high % of success from the favourites. Top teams in UK and Italy do win about 65-70% of the time so the odds make sense. You should have similar success with Spain and Holland as they too have strong fav that win. Good luck!!! Sophocles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arce Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 233 bets; +16% yield 69% great result! With this consistency during 3 seasons... well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 233 bets; +16% yield I believe the palermo match takes place tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield I had Palermo too in my system :( How do you change the title of the thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield How do you change the title of the thread? Go to your first post..... press "edit".... then press "edit" again.... and you have access to the Title box :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Six selections this weekend :loon...... and many near the top end of the range :unsure A full house would be nice! :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield First, sorry if this is asked before, because I see here always the same questions about how to pick your games. ;) But do you have stats about how many times the home team won with 1 goal difference or with 2+ difference? If you have a spreadsheet with all the picks, I can look for it on my own. I ask this because I thought it may also profitable to bet on the asian handicaps. But you are doing great again this season Grex, keep them coming! Good luck where in the world you are :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield A full house would be nice! :hope :ok At accumulator odds of about 27.0, it would be VERY nice ;) ..... But do you have stats about how many times the home team won with 1 goal difference or with 2+ difference? If you have a spreadsheet with all the picks, I can look for it on my own. I ask this because I thought it may also profitable to bet on the asian handicaps...... The stats are..... exactly 1 goal, 31.2%.... exactly 2 goals, 22.3%... greater than 2 goals, 14.8% - I am not sure how you translate these stats into AH performance.... you would need to know the historical Handicap and odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Hey Grex great system thanks for sharing. Do you think this would work with a higher stake on each bet? like say £50 or £100? or would you need a really big bankroll incase you get unlucky one weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield The system is very consistent..... so you would be very unlucky to go bust using a higher % of bank staking system..... but it wouldn't make any difference to the important "yield" statistic. I stick to the 10 unit flat staking system just to keep things simple :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Following you this week mate. Best of luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Following you this week mate. Best of luck. :ok Not a good day to start following the system, Lahrio..... only Fulham came good. Let's hope for three wins on Sunday to give us a reasonable profit for the weekend. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcdude182 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield i was thinking that if you restricted yourself to only the teams in the top quarter of the table then you will weed out any "false favourites" - everton, newcastle today, west brom last week and a few ive seen in your selections and maybe you could expand into other leagues with these rules. what do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield In Serie A we trust :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield In Serie A we trust :ok Absolutely right, JTW..... so far this season, the EP has a strike rate of 54%, whereas Serie A has a strike rate of 72%. And since the system started way back in September 2009, the Serie A has produced a yield of 18.7% (137 bets) :loon and the EP only 9.5% (103 bets) :\ Might consider dropping the EP :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield i was thinking that if you restricted yourself to only the teams in the top quarter of the table then you will weed out any "false favourites" - everton' date=' newcastle today, west brom last week and a few ive seen in your selections and maybe you could expand into other leagues with these rules. what do you guys think?[/quote'] Interesting thought, Marcdude. You may be right, but it would be difficult to back-test the theory.... unless you can think of an easy Excel way of establishing the league position of each team for each fixture..... and I mean an easy way - not involving macros (whatever they are) etc :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield i was thinking that if you restricted yourself to only the teams in the top quarter of the table then you will weed out any "false favourites" - everton' date=' newcastle today, west brom last week and a few ive seen in your selections and maybe you could expand into other leagues with these rules. what do you guys think?[/quote'] Considering the top quarter of the EPL would mean only betting those teams when they play another team from the top 5 , as i'm sure the odds would dictate that . Mind you if it pays ......!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcdude182 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield yeah i understand that say if united were playing someone like sunderland at old trafford then the odds may be ridiculously low so you could may double it up with another selection. i may be wrong in thinking this but sometimes you'll get selections for your system that might not neccesarilly mean the home team will win but its probably an indication that the bookies think the away team wont. an example could be west brom vs wigan last week, west brom were 1.72 to win at home but i think thats just cause people assume wigan werent going to win and people would bet against wigan away from home regardless of the opposition but personally if i were to risk my hard earned (thats what i tell my boss anyway lol) cash on a team i would rather risk it on a double including someone like barca and spurs than lumping it on a single with west brom. these ideas are just things that have been swirling around in my head and i appreciate that you guys have been doing stuff like this a lot longer than me so i would really like to now what you think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcdude182 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield this is where i disprove everything ive just said but then again what do these forums exist for if not to think of an idea then watch it go down in flames lol, anyway with the odds range that i personally like to bet i would select these bets: (all odds are from sky bet) spurs/man city double: 2.36 juventus/napoli double: 2.16 b. monchengladbach: 1.95 valencia: 1.75 2.36 is normally higher than i would bet but what the hell, this idea is just me thinking out loud anyways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield You are very welcome to "think out loud" (as you put it) on this thread, Marcdude..... however, please note that this particular forum is for "systems" and, with all due respect, I don't think your selections are based on a system which has been back-tested and has a definite set of selection criteria...... I think there is a lot of "gut feeling" in the way you select your bets. Perhaps your selections would be better suited to the "Glory Hunter's Forum" :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Winter Break now I think, not sure if Italy have it? but I hope the players in the English Premiership don't eat too much Christmas dinner so we get some winners in the next round to make a profit :hope Grex just out of curiosity do you know how many rounds you have gone before without making any sort of profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield No rest for the wicked, I'm afraid, Maltstar..... there is a full mid-week round of matches in the EP and Serie A, and then the EP is at it again next Monday/Tuesday. Good question about the losing streak. The system is on its worst losing streak..... 4 rounds :unsure. Never before has there been more than 2 consecutive losing rounds. Just to mention the longest winning streak was 8 rounds :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Everton, Lazio and Napoli for this midweek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennostain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Good luck with you bets:hope. But the Newcastle vs Wes Brown does not match your table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Good luck with you bets:hope. But the Newcastle vs Wes Brown does not match your table? "Wes Brown".... nice joke (I hope!) :lol Newcastle are 1.90 on Bet365, therefore do not match the selection criteria of 1.45-1.80 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennostain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield "Wes Brown".... nice joke (I hope!) :lol Newcastle are 1.90 on Bet365, therefore do not match the selection criteria of 1.45-1.80 :ok Wups :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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