AFL Finals Week 3

[ozgamer]

ST KILDA 1.36 W BULLDOGS 3.17 ------ -/+18.5 GEELONG 1.50 COLLINGWOOD 2.60 ---- -/+13.5 I think both favs will win. At this stage I don't see much in the way of plays so I might just put the cue-stick away. Any thoughts on the Brownlow? I know there's a gigantic thread on it @ Bigfooty but just wanted to put it out there for this thread. I haven't followed this for the season but if I was to tempted to play right now it would be most likely LeCras @ $5 to win WCE count (save w/ Selwood @ $2.40 = $1.62 effective) or just LeCras straight out. Disadvantage is he's a fwd and not many opportunities to score points but I can't see Cox $6 threatening or Priddis $4.25 for that matter. Any thoughts?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3

ST KILDA 1.36 W BULLDOGS 3.17 ------ -/+18.5

~LA~IITT'SS~OLVVERRR~

Any thoughts on the Brownlow? ... Any thoughts?

I'm looking for some good odds on Jo Bordanaro to poll well.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Hope you were smart enough to snap up some of the 1.45 on offer late Sunday then, Figaro. ;)

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3

Hope you were smart enough to snap up some of the 1.45 on offer late Sunday then' date=' Figaro. ;)[/quote'] Whatever Ash is smoking, I want some of it :rollin

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Saints (-18.5) @ $1.91 The more I look at tonite's game, the more I'm convinced the Dogs won't get close. They can't compete with the Saints defensively and they would need close to everything to go their way if their strength (their attack) was to have an impact on the game. StK-StK-StK-StK @ $2.15 If the Dogs are to have any chance, they would need a good start, something they've struggled with all year (lost 11/24 1st qtrs + 2 ties) and in particular, against the other top 4 teams (lost 5/7 1st qtrs + 1 tie) although not bad in recent times (3/5 1st qtr wins +1 tie). They did get jumped by the Cats 2 wks ago. Saints have done well (won 17/24 1st qtrs) in this area but have been tardy in the last 3. However, of those 3 games, they have outscored their opponents in each of the 3 remaining quarters. Considering their current opponents, it is unlikely they will start slow again. Of the 17 1st qtrs that the Saints have won, they went on to win 16 times. 13 of those games have been S-S-S-S Qtr-by-Qtr Leader wins. Conversely, of the 11 1st qtrs that the Dogs have lost, they went on to lose 8 times, all WB-WB-WB-WB Qtr-by-Qtr Leader losses. Bottom-line is, everything hinges on the 1st qtr.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 No team changes for tonight.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Usually tight or blow-out - if they won't play keepings off too much.

Preliminary Final Winning Margins - 1980 - 2008					(46)
1-12pts	14	30%
13-24pts	3	7%
25-39pts	9	20%
40+pts	20	43%

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 And tight it was... Riewoldt's gift...Saints first goal from the worst 'holding the ball' decision ever, given Hargrave kicked it!...Saints second goal from a turnover from a terrible Callan kick, but why was the ball back there?? Bulldogs got a free kick 25 metres behind play. :\ Wrong decision. Goal with 6 seoncds left in the 3rd was probably the (second, behind Golden Boy's present) killer, stemming from Murphy being called to play on when he simply ran up to the mark and stopped. Wrong. Still, 2.5 in after DOMINATING the first quarter was probably the beginning of the end, with a couple of relatively easy misses... :sad Ah crap...I better re-stick this. There is another game this week afterall. :puke Still :sad

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Nodded my head all the way through that, Taza. You forgot the atrocious prior opportunuty against Ward Q3 (despite it was on HBF). Brilliant effort by Bulldogs, great coaching and discipline (from both sides on that score). What if Gianwhatever nails the goal? Lenny Hayes & I guess Reiwoldt's, Reiwoldt and Will Minson isn't. Great final :clap (the simpletons may have needed a high scorer, though). I actually wanted to back Saints 1-12 but the odds they offer on those markets are pitiful. Hoping tonight's the blowout result. :hope

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Yeah...the Ward one was comical...there was another kick to Riewoldt (early in the second I think) againt Lake for a 'push' which was great body use...actually, 'body use' would be an extreme term, given there was barely contact at all. I was at the game and honestly thought it was a disaster...Johnson got badly 'shepparded' off the ball a couple of times on deep kicks...although top be fair, Riewoldt did get a bit of the same... Anyway, no point crying now. (Was seriously close to it last night!)...in fact, I'll tell you how shattered I was, I didn't drink!! Room in the Caz...2 beers on Southbank, and while getting a 3rd, two people came in and sat on my table, from where I was staring out over the river... ...figured that's just what kinda night it was!! :lol Went to bed. :D Have seen the replay, and tbh, the umpiring didn't seem so bad...so not sure if the cameras/'experts' :eyes didn't pick up on a lot, or maybe I was just over-reacting at the time... ...however, you may have just convinced me of the former...not that it helps me any! :\ Oh well, making up for last nights lack of beers...early apologies for any rubbish I may post later on! :lol And, yeah, speaking of simpletons...I agree 100% it was great coaching...but I'm building up the Dutch courage to head to BF to see how many of them want Eade sacked for not playing a forward line. :wall You on the Cats tonight?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Oh, and Hayes...Don't get me wrong, he was very, very good last night...him and Cross going at it for nearly 2 hours was pretty special contest... ...but he'll never, ever pull a goal like that out of the proverbial back pocket again. ...too many memories...waiter!... :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Pretty crappy episode of Home & Gardens last night ;) ... thought that's (MCG) where you would have been.

You on the Cats tonight?

On: Cat's >24.5 @ 2.55 Cat's >39.5 @ 3.65 Took Saints/Cat's GF Quinella @ 5.00 couple of weeks ago and had some more at 2.07 this week.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 ******* marvellous work. :cheers You'll be shouting then if I head up that way in the next month or so? :ok ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 It's taken me the 184th match of the year to hit some form. Should be flying for the remainder of season, now! :ok :dude

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Nice work there Ash. Cats were never in doubt. Dogs were very unlucky. Didn't think they had it in them but they did and could've spoilt the party. My cue-stick is definitely put away now. Cats are a bit short but field a stronger team than R14. Saints get one more chance to show something. Kozi, Milne and Schneider need to help out Rievoldt. I think the Cat's for mine. And Judd is my tip for the Brownlow and my roughie is NOT Mitch Clark (that is directed at those genuises Steve Quartermain and Davis Schwarz) Well done everyone on this season.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals Week 3 Not Mitch Clark? YOu mean he doesn't get double votes for games where both Brown and Black play?... ...you mean he doesn't get extra votes for being Paddy Ryder, only slightly better? Come on... :lol: I know Ablett is one of those "deserving" winners, but I've got a tough time feeling good for a guy who is 'relieved' this year...devistated and in tears last year... ...anyone who wants an individual award that badly has got it all wrong, imho. Even this year, watching his stoney, 'I'm keeping cool...but I better ******* win this' face, turn to a smug little grin after round 8 or so...nausiating. Anyway...it's still an absolute mystery to me how Todd Goldstain only got 2 votes for a 25 HO, 7 mark, 5 goal game!! Madness. (Was seriously thinking of opposing Harvey @ 1.18 for most 'Roo votes...only didn't as I couldn't break down 4 other chances...lucky.