AFL Round 19

[ozgamer]

CARL 5.10 GEEL 1.17 ---- +/- 30.5 --- MCG WB 1.04 WCE 11.25 ----- -/+ 50.5 --- Etihad HAWKS 3.29 STK 1.34 --- +/- 22.5 --- Aurora ESS 2.47 BL 1.55 ------- +/- 10.5 ---- MCG ADEL 1.75 COLL 2.09 ---- -/+ 4.5 ---- AAMI ROOS 1.36 MELB 3.17 --- -/+ 18.5 --- Etihad RICH 1.73 SYD 2.12 ----- -/+ 4.5 ---- MCG FREO 2.60 PORT 1.50 --- +/- 10.5 --- Subiaco Carlton with a 30.5 start is interesting. 28.5 given to Crows and Hawks in the last 2. Bookies have over-reacted a little. Think the line should 35.5+. Blues might turn up to play in the same way they ran the Saints to 9 pts but they've been average for the best part of late. ? on Thornton and Jamison and Cats may get back Kelly and Lonergan. Doggies easy. Tempted to take the +50.5 as there is no real incentive for the Doggies to thump the Eagles as I expect a repeat of last week's snore-fest :zzz Hawks given 22.5 against the Saints but were given 28.5 against the Cats ??!!?? Not sure about this Saints defence being less effective away from the Docklands biz. Saints with the better H2H record so I'm staying out. Brisbane should win here. Essendon are struggling atm. Think some media clown suggested earlier in the year that they were likely to run out of steam towards the end of the season which is something they did last year. Maybe there is some truth to that. They looked flat vs West Coast and even with their missing players, they still would've lost and I don't like their chances here either. They lost their away game vs West Coast last year narrowly and then went home with a 6 day break to get pumped by the Crows at the Docklands. Same scenario here with players missing. May get Davey and McVeigh back. Lions looking to get back Bradshaw and Notting. Should be ADEL 1.85 COLL 1.95 if you ask me. Pies i/state record can't be denied. Crows are 6/ last 6 @ home but mostly against questionable opposition. Should be close. Nth @ 1.36?!! Hmmm I'd jump @ the + 18.5 but Melb were given more vs Rich @ the MCG and are still missing a few regulars. Unless I see some serious ins/outs I'd have to pass. Nth have won the last 5 vs Melb but could not see them kicking a big score to win. A definite interest in Nth @ 1-39 here. Sydney interests me a bit. Have a great H2H record over the Tiges, pushed the Saints to 1 pt yet they are the dogs. Have yet to win away but get a great chance against a team who like to keep it close ;) The Saints game might've taken something out of them and they may miss McVeigh but they get 8 days break and the Tigers poor scoring keeps the Swans well in it. UNDER total maybe? Can't trust Port to win away. Freo not good enough to win @ home either but may get McPharlin and Schammer back, so wait and see. Good luck all :cheers

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19 Cats to miss Chapman. Scarlett, Taylor, Gamble and Kelly stay out and Lonergan is 50-50. Blues to miss Jamison again and Thornton and Bower are clear to play.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Well...I'm officially a Victorian! :unsure Ash, or Henry...or anyone else in the greater [outer!] Melbourne region...drop me you number if you guys want [PM] and we'll have to catch up some time for a quiet ale...if any of you are in the least interested of course! :D (In me that is...I know beer is a given.) Anyway... In fact, if you take Rich, Melb, Freo, WCE and Nth as the bottom 5 teams ... (sigh!) because they are ... out of the 12 matches between them this year, 10 have finished within the 24.5 margin, 9 have finished within the 15.5 margin. I would need confirmation but I'm pretty sure underdogs (@ SP) @ home vs interstate teams @ H2H 15/31 (48%) & @ the line 23/31 (74%) (excluding neutral grounds) have improved from last year. Only posed interest way back on Monday on this game but dropping Ebert and Salopek kinda threw me. Having not followed the game, I'm not sure if Port won convincingly or if the Hawks kicked themselves out of it but Port look best placed to snatch 8th spot atm. That's some damn fine work you've done there oz. :ok Dees/North 'qualify'...as does Freo :unsure ...not that I've really looked into the games much at this point. {btw, not entirely sure either about the Hawks game last week...just remember seeing late in the 3rd Port had ~105 points from 35 I50's! :eek I mean, I know the Hawks D can be awful, but that was kinda crazy. Franklin kicked 1.8 I think...Port certainly played well enough tho, I don't think it was too much of a 'lucky' result. So...I'll have a play around and see what I can come up with... But just at first peek, it does look a pretty average week! :\

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19

Well...I'm officially a Victorian! :unsure

Congrats on the move to civilisation :tongue2 Got this news on the Saints-Hawks game. Centrebet is back up with Saints $1.50 (out from $1.34) and Hawks $2.61 (in from $3.24), line 12.5 in from 22.5. Crazy plunge and teams not yet announced. If the Saints players are sore then I might have to rethink the Swans as well :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19

Congrats on the move to civilisation :tongue2 If the Saints players are sore then I might have to rethink the Swans as well :unsure

lol. Yeah, leaving my home where I can watch Friday and Sunday football live, to a place where I have to sit through constant ad's (already an hour over-due!) Hardly light years ahead my friend! :lol Not too sure abot worrying about the Swans...I'm guessing the Saints' are as "sore" as Geelong have been recently. ;) fwiw...I'm on Carlton +28.5 on Friday night. About the only 'side' I like. Will ceratinly be tuned in for a total or two tho. :ok

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 19 Taz, You can usually find most of the games on justin.tv Nice watching a game live and instead of paying for FoxSmell, a few cold drinks can be puchased with the leftover change. To answer your question about the Hawks, had em on toast about 6 times during the game, only to fcuk it up infront of the sticks. Think we tallied up 5 posters in the end. But agreed, Ports conversion from inside 50's was out of this world. But I guess thats Port for you.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19

Taz, You can usually find most of the games on justin.tv Nice watching a game live and instead of paying for FoxSmell, a few cold drinks can be puchased with the leftover change. .

:ok Great work. Thanks mate. Will be watchng NFL online too, so I have been trying to tell myself Foxtel isn't really required. Carlton +28.5 Cats are on a 0-8 spread run, no real wonder given the players they have had out during that time...and now no Chapman which is huge as oz said). Carlton numbers have been ok over their last 5...in fact, better than Geelong's, with the Cats av'ing just 23 shots in that time...only more than 24 once (v. Melbourne!) Carlton have been pretty good defensively all year...29 shots last week wasn't great obviously!...but give up just 24 on the season...and only 26+ 4 times (to 3 teams). I don't think Geelong play the MCG as well as the Dome or at home, and even if they turn things around here I think 8 shots is about all they can give...so happy to take the old 4.4 theory! :lol

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Not sure how long this will last... ...but in a slightly bizarre-o twist of the odds, if you like the North/Melbourne under (which I do), you can take under 190.5 (1.90)... ...or by using the 'Game Score' numbers and odds (at either Centrebet or TAB) you can effectively get the same bet for 2.20. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Tempted by the in the Melbourne game at pretty good odds, but these are the two teams who have bucked the trend...including v. each other in rd. 1. Just get the feeling that the coaching staff won't risk it coming down to a kick after the siren this week! ;) under 190.5 Both teams av'ing just 45 I50's for 22 shots in the last 5 games, and if we take out 2x Interstate trips for North, and a trip to Geelong for Melbourne, both teams allowing just 84 ppg in that time. Both teams av'ing ~75 in their last 10 games, with no 100's except for two home games v. Interstate teams. Kangas have topped 84 just twice all season at the Dome (both v. Interstate teams), and Melbourne haven't topped 79 in their last 5 meetings, going back to 2007. ** Sounds like it will be close afterall doesn't it! :eek ** ...:\ Brisbane @ Essendon under 190.5 Bombers still without Lloyd and Winderlich...no Lucas, and are only av'ing 22 shots in their last 5. Brisbane D took a pounding last week, but Bradshaw back allows Merrett to his normal role...besides, this Ess team don't look likely to threaten. Lions don't score well on the road, in fact, av. ... :unsure (Just had a quick look, and North play @ WC! Another 'system' shot in the works ;) ) ...I wonder if this is a regular occurance between bottom 4/5/6 teams? Hmmm... Either way, it was a great pick up. :ok

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19 I would need confirmation but I'm pretty sure underdogs (@ SP) @ home vs interstate teams @ H2H 15/31 (48%) & @ the line 23/31 (74%) (excluding neutral grounds) have improved from last year. This years results can be attributed to the main culprits: the over-rated Hawks (4), Blues (2) & Port (2) as losing favs. Last years results were 11/29 (38%) H2H & 16/29 (55%) @ the line - main culprits being Freo (3), Bris (2), Crows (2) & WB (2) as losing favs. Interestingly, Port LOST 6/8 as HOME FAVS vs i/state teams last year but have WON 5/6 this year. Centrebet is back up with Saints $1.50 (out from $1.34) and Hawks $2.61 (in from $3.24), line 12.5 in from 22.5. Crazy plunge and teams not yet announced. Won't bother quoting current odds but it's ironic how bookies are fearing the worst here. Pretty sure they made a bucket load from a lot of Hawthorn's losses as favs this year. .but in a slightly bizarre-o twist of the odds, if you like the North/Melbourne under (which I do), you can take under 190.5 (1.90)... or by using the 'Game Score' numbers and odds (at either Centrebet or TAB) you can effectively get the same bet for 2.20. Those bizarre-o numbers are still there and very observant work :ok Think 161-190 is effectively $3.00. I'm not as keen as last wk so I might stick with the other plays I have in mind for now. Tempted by the in the Melbourne game at pretty good odds, but these are the two teams who have bucked the trend...including v. each other in rd. 1. R1 game not really indicative of season form tho, particularly recent form and both teams missing players. If it makes you feel better Taz, I've taken the b/c I see this game going no other way. Only an uncharacteristic game from either will see the margin go beyond. Sylvia, Moloney and Morton as inclusions makes things interesting and your numbers suggest there's not much b/t the 2 which I tend to agree and of course Nth are horribly short. Can't see WC kicking 80, and Dogs have topped 120 just 4 times all season. ---------------------------------- LINE - MARGIN R3 -- STK 161 vs WCE 64 --- TD -- +21.5 --- 97 R4 -- STK 111 vs FRE 28 ---- TD -- +40.5 --- 83 R11 -- WCE 77 vs GEE 99 -- SUBI - +40.5 --- 22 R12 -- FRE 75 vs GEE 94 --- SUBI - +43.5 --- 19 R18 -- WB 111 vs FRE 80 --- TD -- +50.5 --- 31 R19 -- WB ??? vs WCE ?? --- TD -- +48.5 --- ?? Unusual how the WA teams have been scheduled like this and how the results have panned out. As mentioned previously, I expect a similiar result to last week and Aker let slip that the Doggies were doing that overloading business so they are definitely just going for the win only so I'm going with: DOGGIES 1-39 @ $2.75 ($2.85 available) Took this just after the teams were announced only to have it back up to $2.85 a 1/2 hr later. I didn't know McKenzie was worth 10c/$1 unit so not very f'n happy :@ ...I wonder if this is a regular occurance between bottom 4/5/6 teams? Hmmm... Either way, it was a great pick up. :ok I picked up on it b/c of your bet last week. It had me thinking that there haven't been any blow outs b/t the cellar dwellers this year. I think this year's results are indicative of the closeness b/t the bottom 5 teams. I'm sure your stats will probably back that up Taz. There really shouldn't be more than a couple goals difference b/t them all. They are all ... I dunno ... equally and predictably ... ordinary? Sydney interests me a bit. Have a great H2H record over the Tiges, pushed the Saints to 1 pt yet they are the dogs. I've snoozed on the Swans and they're now into $2.01 and no line. Micky O will have to win his 300th w/o me :( Freo's Line record as dogs (SP) @ home excl Derbies is 3/5 (1/5 H2H), so not as good as the Eagles. I'm inclined to think Freo will pick up 1 more win @ home and at this stage I would favour the R21 vs Ess but considering Ports' abysmal away record (albeit against tough opposition, but they did lose to the Dees) and with the inclusion of Schammer and Peake into Freo's young midfield, Freo do have some hope. Before the odds change on me, I will take Freo +12.5 @ $1.91 :hope

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 19 There's now talk of Fisher and Dal missing for the Aints. :clap And just read on BF (so yeah, no reliable) that Selwood and S.Johnson are set to miss. :eek

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Cats down to 20 pt favs as news that S. Johnson and Selwood may both miss. Yeah, the St. Kilda one is funny...not sure how it's even possible for a team to go from -28.5 to +10 or so!! :puke Can't for the life of me understand why anyone would want to be anywhere near this game right now...'cause if experience has taught me anything, you can just about guarentee that the final result will be smack in the middle of those 2 lines. If you do like the close one on Sunday, just wondering if the 3.50 isn't a much better option given the numbers so far?... ...[still not sure I'm convinced that Melbourne want another close one.] :\ :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Timing ;) EDIT: Plus this from BF Melbourne site... Highly bizarre to see Bail & McNamara named, but in the context of our season, not surprising. Bailey's just throwing the 'consistent good performances for Casey' theme for selection out the window. McNamara had 4 touches for Casey last week, and Bail played in their reserves. Go figure. Scary.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19

Cats down to 20 pt favs as news that S. Johnson and Selwood may both miss.

Yeah, this is the pony to bet on. I've taken Carl +20.5 if those 2 are struggling atm as that would really change things. I forsee a flood of money coming 90 mins before the start, if 1 or both are out.

Yeah' date=' the St. Kilda one is funny...not sure how it's even possible for a team to go from -28.5 to +10 or so!! :puke[/quote'] Its' the Hawks punters who've been feeding the bookies this yr I bet. Biggest turnaround in TAB history. I remember the turnaround in the Saints-Freo game at TD last year. Dal Santo and Milne were dropped I think and all of a sudden Freo re-opened ~$1.60 favs??!! Situation bit more extreme this time. Sure is. Way too much dodgy in the air this w/end.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 19

And just read on BF (so yeah' date=' no reliable) that Selwood and S.Johnson are set to miss. :eek[/quote']There down to play, so interesting what the market does in the next half hour.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19 Still not too sure how I feel about yesterday... Fiscally pretty pleased. Doggies god-awful kicking snuck the under home (although, it was realistically only that close given the Eagles were kicking goals out of their collective arse!)... ...plus the loss (combined with the Collingwood win, and to a lesser extend the Brisbane draw), makes the Pies top 4 now a certainty. But, ****. That's pretty embarrassing stuff. I'm guessing you've got that same slit wrists/run for bandaid thing going on too oz! Eagles get up in a game you didn't really want them to. :( Can't bring myself to take the close one today. Have had a nagging feeling all week that North win easy... Yeah, the St. Kilda one is funny...not sure how it's even possible for a team to go from -28.5 to +10 or so!! :puke Can't for the life of me understand why anyone would want to be anywhere near this game right now...'cause if experience has taught me anything, you can just about guarentee that the final result will be smack in the middle of those 2 lines. Sorry Ash...I've only just now seen that you were on it...but it's amazing how often this happens. (Across all sports)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 19 What's that theory I spruke about it doesn't matter one iota who you back ... ? Woof, woof :$ (actually, what noise does a poodle's bark make?) :lol Simply had to take Hawthorn! :\ :$

Tempted by the in the Melbourne game at pretty good odds' date= but these are the two teams who have bucked the trend...including v. each other in rd. 1. R1 game not really indicative of season form tho, particularly recent form and both teams missing players. If it makes you feel better Taz, I've taken the b/c I see this game going no other way. Only an uncharacteristic game from either will see the margin go beyond. Sylvia, Moloney and Morton as inclusions makes things interesting and your numbers suggest there's not much b/t the 2 which I tend to agree and of course Nth are horribly short.

This is the direction I've gone, as well.

Event	North Melbourne v Melbourne
Selection	Either Team Wins by Under 15.5
Strength	7/10
Date	09/08/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Tab @ 3.50 (Back)
Reasoning	'Tri Bet' Sure, Richmond were a little off the boil last week but Melbourne's efforts and form has been consitantly promising over the last month, winning two of the last five together with that after siren loss to Richmond. North go in a little down-strength themselves, with two of their very best players this season in Harding and Simpson out. North are 8 from 18 for the EU15.5 option and it remains that they still carry much of the restrictive Laidley philosophies that cositantly has them surrendering clear leads. They have selected a line-up to win but, interestingly, should they lose today it's unlikely they'll reach five wins for the season.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19 Yeah. I'm a bit speechless and my wrists are fine :rollin I don't think I was cute, even if the +47.5 was clearly the safe option. Even if you factor in the fact that Worsfold was on the front foot about stopping the away losing streak (he never has been) which was enforced by traveling a day late, I can't understand how a top 4 team with top 4 aspirations let an interstate bottom 5 team score 100 on them let alone beat them on their home ground. This weekend it's Norm Smith Medallist Andrew Embley whereas every other time he's been just Embley. He kicks 2 of the last 3; one from outside 50 on the run and that set shot from the boundary whereas 2 weeks ago he couldn't kick one from 30m in front. Go figure. And that dickhead commentary from Healey, "Stacks on the Hill." (pauses) "I think it was Harbrow" :spank I'm not angry the Eagles screwed me over because they didn't. They played well, kicked straight and deserved the win, something they were unable to do against Richmond and Melbourne. I'd just would like to know what's going on down at Footscray. Those missing players wouldn't have made the difference, they were just very lazy and very careless. If you look at the St Kilda-Hawthorn game, the Saints made no excuses. Same plan, same work ethic, different personnel, same result. It's just that simple. For the Eagles, it was no Cox, no Kerr, no worries. I think I've made my point. And wd so far Taz :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 19

And that dickhead commentary from Healey' date=' "Stacks on the Hill." [i'](pauses) "I think it was Harbrow" :spank

He (Healy) did have a good point when he shut that dickhead Brian Taylor up last week in Perth tho... Taylor to Jakovich: "So, Glenn, is it Masten [as in 'ass'], or Marsten?" Jakovich: "It's actually Marsten." Taylor: "Well he's been Masten all year...there's no 'R' in it, so it has to be." Healy: "There's no 'R' in mast either." ...5 second silence... :lol Flying start to the Dockers...could easily be another interstate home doggie for you here oz... [No jinx allowed Gamblord! :dude ]

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 19

This is the direction I've gone' date=' as well.[/quote'] Melbourne = Take w/ a G-R-A-I-N----O-F---S-A-L-T :wall There should be a Brian Taylor Hate Page on Facebook simply because he refuses to pronounce another Eagles player's surname correctly, one who has played AFL for 14 f'n years. He had his surname misspelled to ensure it was pronounced correctly i.e. Wirr-pun-da yet as soon as the spelling was changed, this arrogant phonetics champion who looks like Super Mario plays the "I call it as i see it" card and pisses off a lot of people. Hindsight aside it was a mere formality if the weekend's bizarre-o results were anything to go by. Port leave their work ethic at home as per usual and Freo as they've done at home in the last few months start well (now 6/ last 6 1st qtrs and 5/ last 6 1st halves @ Subi) and this time went on with it.