Trotter Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 I'm sure there must be something in the CD winner system, but it's a case of getting your 'filters' right ! I'm going to have another go !...........:lol So ........some filters 1 Handicap races only. The idea is that all the runners will be of approximately the same ability so a CD win could reflect an edge. In non handicaps the range of ability could be huge and a CD win might be at a much lower level than todays race. 2 One qualifier only in a race. I want to avoid those low grade handicaps on the AW where half the field have won over CD as the same horses keep running against each other. Not much efge in being a CD winner if there are 4 or 5 in a race. 3 CD win must be within the last 12 months. Again this is where I fell down last time as it was during the winter and I was including old chasers who's clocked a CD win 5 years ago and hadn't won since. ! I'm using the Post definition of a CD winner which is a bit 'tighter' than the Life - the Life for example would include a 16 furlong hudle win as a 'CD' even if todays race was a 16 furlong chase or a 16 furlong Flat race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Todays selections - Bath 4.40 - Mythical Blue Donc 7.20 - Russian Spirit Donc 8.55 - Amazing Blue Sky Leop 7.30 - Capall An Ibre Leop 8.30 - Raise Your Heart Sand 2.45 - Sharpened Edge For the purpose of the paper trail, I'll just stick to 1 point Win at SP. Stakes - 6 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Todays selections - Bath 4.40 - Mythical Blue Donc 7.20 - Russian Spirit Donc 8.55 - Amazing Blue Sky Leop 7.30 - Capall An Ibre Leop 8.30 - Raise Your Heart Sand 2.45 - Sharpened Edge Not a bad start.........2 winners Mythical Blue won 7/2 Amazing Blue Sky won 5/2 Stakes - 6 P/L - +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Friday selections - Asc 4.25 - Alanbrooke Chep 8.55 - Solemn Newm 5.40 - Iceman George South 3.25 - Toulouse Express Wex 7.05 - Cylindar Rattle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Friday selections - Asc 4.25 - Alanbrooke Chep 8.55 - Solemn Newm 5.40 - Iceman George South 3.25 - Toulouse Express Wex 7.05 - Cylindar Rattle Phew ........had to wait all day for a winner......... Solemn won 2/1 Iceman George was a noin runner Today - Stakes 4 - P/L (-1) Total to date Stakes - 10 P/L - +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Four qualifiers for saturday...... Asc 1.25 - Golden Desert Sals 6.00 - Gallego York 2.05 - Gertmegalush York 4.50 - Nemo Spirit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Four qualifiers for saturday...... Asc 1.25 - Golden Desert Sals 6.00 - Gallego York 2.05 - Gertmegalush York 4.50 - Nemo Spirit One winner today....... Gallego won 4/1 Today - stakes 4, P/L - +1 Total to date - Stakes - 14 P/L - +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! 3 qualifiers for Sunday...... Curr 2.10 - Silver Tide Pont 2.40 - Master Nimbus Pont 5.30 - Comptonspirit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! 3 qualifiers for Sunday...... Curr 2.10 - Silver Tide Pont 2.40 - Master Nimbus Pont 5.30 - Comptonspirit Grr...........first day without a winner, oh well I suppose it had to happen sometime..........:lol Today - Stakes 3 - P/L (-3) Totals Stakes - 17 P/L - (-1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Two for monday....... Windsor 7.45 - Miss Chamanda Windsor 8.45 - Hollow Green Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! One winner out of the two......... Hollow Green won 5/2 Today - Stakes 2, P/L +1.50 Totals so far..... Stakes - 19 ( 5 winners to date at 7/2, 5/2, 2/1, 4/1 and 5/2) P/L - + 0.50 Still waiting for that unexpected 'big one' to bump up the profits. Thought it was coming tonight when Miss Chamanda took the lead a furlong out at 20/1, but was overhauled and finished 3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Lots of qualifiers for Tuesday.......... Bev 4.55 -Honimiere Bev 5.30 - General Tufto Bev 6.00 - Shaylee Gal 6.25 - My Valley Gal 8.10 - Senators Alibi Good 4.35 - Yes Mr President Perth 7.40 - Paperchaser Perth 8.45 - Ngong Hills Worc 5.40 - Tanmeya Worc 8.20 - Barneys Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Bad day at the office........ Shaylee was a non runner 2 winners - Honimiere won 5/4 Tanmeya won 15/8 Today - stakes 9 - P/L (-3.87) Totals to date Stakes - 28 P/L (- 3.37) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Wednesday qualifiers - Galway 3.10 - Tin Town Boy Galway 5.40 - Metal madness Goodwood 2.10 - Baddam Leic 7.10 - Snowed Under Leic 8.15 - Just Spike Perth 4.50 - He's a hotshot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 29, 2009 Author Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! 1 abandonned, 1 non runner..........just left the 4 losers........:loon Totals - stakes 32, P/L ( - 7.37) Gonna pack this in for the time being.........maybe come back during the jumps season. I think maybe jumps courses are more 'course specialist friendly' with the emphasis on stamina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! I'm sure there must be something in the CD winner system, but it's a case of getting your 'filters' right ! I'm going to have another go !...........:lol So ........some filters 1 Handicap races only. The idea is that all the runners will be of approximately the same ability so a CD win could reflect an edge. In non handicaps the range of ability could be huge and a CD win might be at a much lower level than todays race. 2 One qualifier only in a race. I want to avoid those low grade handicaps on the AW where half the field have won over CD as the same horses keep running against each other. Not much efge in being a CD winner if there are 4 or 5 in a race. 3 CD win must be within the last 12 months. Again this is where I fell down last time as it was during the winter and I was including old chasers who's clocked a CD win 5 years ago and hadn't won since. ! I'm using the Post definition of a CD winner which is a bit 'tighter' than the Life - the Life for example would include a 16 furlong hudle win as a 'CD' even if todays race was a 16 furlong chase or a 16 furlong Flat race I'm always interest in anything that is stats related and what one filters out to make things better can sometimes make things worse as the number of runners becomes so few its not worth it in the long run. As rule of thumb CD winners win around 11% of races if you include all flat handicaps but not AW. One thing that might help is THE TRAINERS of these horses and how well they do. Since 2006 for instance M JOHNSTON shows 110/19 wins roi 131% yet m A ATTWATER SHOWS 51/1 so maybe thats worth a look. One of the best is gm moore 37/9 roi 227.0% The above was using CD WINNER but in this case had at least 1 run in last 12 months but may not have been a CD WINNER IN THAT PERIOD. Even H CECIL shows 12/7 in that period roi 244% and their are MANY MORE that do well over that period. To do this it would take time but in my mind well worth the effort if CD winners is you main theme. Using this approach even if 5 cd winners were in the race it may onlt break down to 1 if trainers was another FILTER. Hope you dont mind the imput T%M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 7, 2009 Author Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Thanks mate..........that's very interesting ! :ok Must admit that I hadn't considered that certain trainers might have a better 'CD winner' record than others - but I guess there is a logic to it in that trainers will all have their individual quirks about where they enter their horses and some of them might put more store by their horse having won at a track before. I'll have to have a think about this next time I return to 'CD winners'...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 9, 2009 Share Posted August 9, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! Thanks mate..........that's very interesting ! :ok Must admit that I hadn't considered that certain trainers might have a better 'CD winner' record than others - but I guess there is a logic to it in that trainers will all have their individual quirks about where they enter their horses and some of them might put more store by their horse having won at a track before. I'll have to have a think about this next time I return to 'CD winners'...... Hi T I must apolagise as I've made a mistake in what I said about the TRAINERS mentioned as I must have pressed something else as well as CD winners and as it interested me I took another look and can not replecate what I stated. Their are trainers who do well but not as mentioned. Sorry for my mistake and dont know what I did to get figures stated and dont wish to mislesd you in anyway T%M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 9, 2009 Author Share Posted August 9, 2009 Re: CD Winners - Again ! OK, no problem........ As it goes, I don't have the facility to do that kind of research so I would never have been able to use it in any 'filters'........ Good talking point, tho '...........:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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