servecold Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability hi KT the numbers under the x on the left are( from what i can remember) the actual event possabilities ie number of goals cant recall which site i got these off think it was from a student at salford uni he had or they had done a paper on a world cup an they were using the table to predict goal totals an to be honest ive forgot what the theory behind the table was i could have it the wrong way round to be fair my maths is not that great an nor is my under standing of a piosson table but when i look at the table to me it says that if a team has 0.10 it has a 100% chance of scoring 3 goals or more which i find wrong i think the lad who gave me this table may have copyed it wrong to throw me off what he an his mates were doing or gave me the wrong details or more than likly i copyed it into my excel wrong all ive been doing is trying to find away to compare goal% to a piosson table an this is the only 1 i have to hand an the ones available on the net do look the same i just thought if i posted it up here some 1 might be able to spot the errors an say try using it this way or throw it away its all wrong lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 29, 2009 Share Posted July 29, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Ok, fair doo's - sort of thought it may mean that - but then (like you say) the percentages didn't add up. Its sort of similar to what I already have , where an actual scoreline is projected, and then analysed for percentages against previously analysed scores of the same outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability No selections this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 9, 2009 Share Posted August 9, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 9: 09-Aug-09 Djurgårdens IF Hammarby IF Sweden L1 0 0 4.31 10.50 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 9, 2009 Share Posted August 9, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 9: 0-1 (Should have backed no goalscorer as the bet would have won as the only goal was an own goal) :@ Bets 9 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 82.56 Profit + / - -82.56 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 12.88889 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 417.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 10: 23-Aug-09 Gefle IF Hammarby IF Sweden L1 0 0 5.24 11.00 Betfair Needing some luck as sort of hoped to have hit one by now. Still, nearly time for the major European and British league's to kick in to play so will continue to post selections and hopefully have a positive yield before too long. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 10: 1-0 - (can't believe it happened again, but the only goal was an own goal) :wall Bets 10 Wins 0 Win rate 0.00% Staked 87.80 Profit + / - -87.80 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 12.7 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 412.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Jack Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability KThom Excellent thread. Just a suggestion you may like to check: From your 10 listed matches so far, 7 of those 10 have finished under 2.5. Do you have any stats on the total goals scored in your 0-0 matches? would it be worthwhile to back unders in games you would expect to be low scoring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hi fat Jack. Firstly thanks for your comments To answer your question - yes I do have the data and it was something I did consider. There are plenty of over / under threads on here but for me personally there is no value in the market and it'd be very hard to make any significant long term profit using it (still good luck to those who try) My stats show 57.6% of projected 0-0's end under 2.5. This equates to odds of 1.73. Again as mentioned there isn't really enough value in it for me - I'll plod along on the 0-0 trail (26 is my longest loosing sequence) but good luck to anyone who is/wants to back unders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 11: 05-Sep-09 Salisbury Luton England Conf 0 0 5.24 11.00 Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 6, 2009 Share Posted September 6, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 11: 1-1 Bets 11.00 Wins 0.00 Win rate 0.00 Staked 93.04 Profit + / - -93.04 Yield -1.00 Avg Odds 12.55 Starting Bank 500.00 Current Bank 406.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 7, 2009 Share Posted September 7, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 12: 08-Sep-09 Salisbury Grays England Conf 0 0 3.2 10.00 Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 12: 2-0 My Excel isn't working so can't bring current tables at the moment. Still in search of the elusive first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 14: 12-Sep-09 Bradford Burton England L2 0 0 9.91 13.50 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 13: 3-1 Game 14: 1-1 Bets 14 Wins 0 Win rate 0% Staked £111.39 Profit + / - -£111.39 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 12.30 Starting Bank £500.00 Current Bank £388.61 Game 15: 13-Sep-09 Gefle IF IFK Göteborg Sweden L1 0 0 7.11 12.00 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Hello Tipper, personal I only play under 3 scores in Portugal. Do you other countries where under 3 cann be used. I don't fully understand what you are asking? I'm not backing the under goal margin in this thread - I'm trying to hit a 0-0 correct scoreline. Currently I have gone 14 games without a "win" (Previous longest streak was 26 games). I'm waiting for the French, Italian and Premiership games to kick in as statistically these have been the most profitable in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 15: 0-3 Bets 15 Wins 0 Win rate 0% Staked £118.50 Profit + / - -£118.50 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 12.30 Starting Bank £500.00 Current Bank £381.50 Hopefully the imminent return of the EPL, Serie A, and French Ligue 1 will bring the long await first. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 16: 16-Sep-09 Blackpool Newcastle England Champ 0 0 5.24 11.00 Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 16 - 2-1 Bets 16 Wins 0 Win rate 0% Staked £123.74 Profit + / - -£123.74 Yield -100.00% Avg Odds 12.22 Starting Bank £500.00 Current Bank £376.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Watching with interest KThom - you were expecting the strike rate to be low so hopefully you arent giving up on this. I see from other threads that you are interested in 0-1 also, any idea what the yield would have been from that so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability No not giving up - see numerous threads on here start and dissappear after a few weeks and bad results. Was sort of hoping to have hit at least 1 by now - but will see how it pans out now the French, Prem and Italian leagues are taking shape. Shouldn't have rushed in with Brazilian league really. As for the 0-1 - i dont have the stats to hand but will update as soon as I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 17: 19-Sep-09 Cardiff QPR England Champ 0 0 3.2 10.00 Stan James Game 18: 19-Sep-09 Burnley Sunderland England Prem 0 0 5.24 11.00 Betfair Game 19: 19-Sep-09 Saint-Étienne Auxerre France L1 0 0 2 9.20 Betfair Game 20: 20-Sep-09 Wolves Fulham England Prem 0 0 3.01 9.50 Victor Chandler Game 21: 20-Sep-09 Man United Man City England Prem 0 0 14.57 16.00 Betfair Game 22: 20-Sep-09 Kashiwa Hiroshima Japan L1 0 0 8.97 13.00 SportingBet Good selection of weekend games :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Correct Score - Odd probability Game 17: 0-2 Game 18: 3-1 Game 19: 1-1 Game 20: 2-1 Game 21: 4-3 Game 22: 1-1 Looking like i could break previous run of 26 without hitting. Law of averages dictates I have to get one sooner or later, to say i'm disappointed so far is an understatement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.