Crouch Potato Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 Will normal service resume this week? Couple of early sighters for me are the Adelaide Games. Despite some sub-par performances of late not sure the Power should be as under-valued in the betting as they are. Given the way the Swans play at home I don't forsee them getting hammered and have a very strong value feel for Port 1-24 @ 4.50. Conversely to Port, I feel that Carlton are perhaps being a bit over-rated after one good win. They've not been impressive before that and have lost 7 of their past 9 clashes v Crows at AAMI. Both wins were by just 4pts. Unsure of Crows injury status but feel that due to their style of play they are unlikely to win big. Crows 1-24 resonates nicely @ 4.25. Patful and Merrett out for the Lions. Saints defence has been great and the Lions are the most 2 B-mensional attack in the game. (That pun was rather poor on second look :\). Expecting Brown and Bradshaw to be well controlled with the Lions no answers in defence (Where Bradshaw will likely find himself by 3/4 time). Saints short at 1.17, but I have big trouble seeing how the Saints lose this game any more than 1 in 20. Beyond that feeling not so strong, think that the Essendon Richmond game might be a U15.5'er, but my knowledge of AFL greatly diminishes when we're talking about these types of teams. Have a feeling for Geelong 20-39 but can't really rationalise it in a manner that I like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Agree with a lot of that Oscar...which is a bad sign for us early! Not on the same page with the Crows tho...I think Carlton win this game pretty handily (well, handily enough!) and I'll be on -7.5 Have lost their last 5 at home!...all by 26 or more, and I don't think the Doggies are going any better than Carlton atm. Haven't kicked more than 12 goals in their last 4 games and I suspect they'll struggle again here against a surprisingly solid Carlton D. Blues' scoring is a slight concern, but Adelaide defense has been horrible all year...and now their midfield has deserted them, going 43-61 I50's to Dogs and 46-58 last week. Like I said, the Doggies hadn't won there for a bloody long time either and I don't think Carlton are any worse. No Murphy means a certain Geelong win...even with Aker playing 300. Not sure about the h'cap tho...Geelong have had a great month, but played some poor teams. First game for Cats indoors this season where they've won their last 10 by an av. of nearly 70 points and covered the spread 9 times... Snooze-fest @ the Dome on Saturday...no idea who will win, but I'm guessing whoever does won't kick 15 goals ;) Happy that West Coast will do enough at home to win. Have been very unlucky to win just 1 of their last 4...Pies likely to get some scoring power back this week, but Eagles have allowed Richmond/Ess...thinking the slightly more wimpy 24.5 myself. :ok Tigers been pretty good last 4, Bomber defense continues to impress. Should be a close one. (Tiges have to be some value @ 2.40ish :\ ) Same line of thinking @ Sydney. Should be a close game. Port's D sucks on the road, would scare me off backing them specifically... ...of course, havg said that the Swans have lost their way. Av. just 45.8 I50's in their last 5 games (equal lowest with North), so Port just may ave too much firepower to negate any leaks at the other end. St. Kilda are definates...have no problem at all with taking 1.15. My numbers suggest Saints will have at least 10 more shots...5.5 would barely cover, the way things are going for us all here it's more likely to be 2.8. :eyes You'd have to think Hawthorn would be too strong for a slightly improving Melbourne, but not interested in taking 1.20 about a team who have only really 'deserved' to have won 2 games so far (13th and 14th on the ladder...which, I guess means they should beat 16th too!...but still not interested! :lol ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 GEELONG vs WESTERN BULLDOGS Doggies lose Murphy and the Cats get back Ablett and Chapman. Think the line is a tad too long but the Doggies looked spent at the end of their game last week while the Cats just had a training run so they just may do it. Snooze-fest @ the Dome on Saturday...no idea who will win' date=' but I'm guessing whoever does won't kick 15 goals ;)[/quote'] NORTH MELBOURNE vs FREMANTLE Real subtle Taz :ok I think there's a play on the unders here too. I'm expecting 190+, may go as low as 185. ADELAIDE vs CARLTON Not trusting the Blues as favs in an away game (yes still thinking about THAT game vs Freo) even against the out of form Crows (Blues are 4/7 as starting favs this year). Yeh there's no winning form from the Crows or good playing form but I wasn't that impressed with the way the Blues put away the Pies either. They lack the polish, attitude and consistency that the top 2 sides have and there's every chance of them turning up a little soft. The Crows have won their last 5 against the Blues; McLeod (probably Crow's best ever player next to Ricciuto) is having his 313th (most ever for a Crows player) at home and if the Crows put in a 4-qtr effort then they are some chance. WEST COAST vs COLLINGWOOD West Coast should win but if the Pies get a few impt ins then I give 'em some chance as they like to dress up for the Eagles as well. RICHMOND vs ESSENDON I like the Bombers at $1.60 here. Let's not forget the Tigers have only won 1 game. They blew a 16 pt lead late in the game last week and while the Bombers haven't got that much more composure they do have alot more going for them atm as their ladder position shows. The Tigers would be distracted off field as well and their 3 worst games this year (in terms of effort) have been at the MCG. Bombers have won their 2 blockbusters so far, albeit fortunate, but deservedly so. This should be no different against a lesser opponent. SYDNEY vs PORT ADELAIDE I think Sydney's luck will have to run out some day at home because they haven't been convincing of late. If Port stick a few talls up forward then the Swans might find themselves in trouble as evidenced last week. ST KILDA vs BRISBANE Can't really go against the Saints. Might clear the line but I will be more interested in the unders total here. HAWTHORN vs MELBOURNE Dees are due a win soon while it may not happen this w/e I expect them to push the Hawks all the way at where else but the G, and the +32.5 line ($1.91) looks attractive considering the way they've been playing of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Happy that West Coast will do enough at home to win. Have been very unlucky to win just 1 of their last 4...Pies likely to get some scoring power back this week, but Eagles have allowed Teams are available and: In: Fraser, Goldsack Out: Dayne Beams, Anthony Corrie No list from from the Eagles yet but I'm pretty sure Kerr and Hunter are back in. Most bookies now have the Eagles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Dogs v. Cats under 201.5 (1.92) Geelong back to some of their very best defensive game atm, allowing just 42 I50's and 15 shots per game over their last 5. and really should be able to strangle a Doggies team without Murphy. Dogs have gone over this number just 3 times all season, 2 against terrible D's (Crows and Freo) and the other Carlton kicked 21.7. Just 1 of their last 6 meetings have topped this, in a game the Bulldogs kicked 17.11 and won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Also took a Geelong/St. Kilda/West Coast triple @ 2.05... ...Was still quite hapy to take West Coast @ 1.53. (1.56 @ Pinnacle, but by the time you mess about with conversions etc...) Essendon v. Richmond [2.05] Happy with this 'late' plunge on the Bombers, has pushed some of the other prices out to some value. Tiges have actually been good in their last 5...only last week @ Port have they had more than 6 shots more/less, and they still managed to keep that close. Bombers have had some super results, but aren't as effective on the slower MCG track...margins of 4 and 5 in 2 games there so far, and Collingwood aren't a ell of a lot better... 4 of the last 6 meetings have been ...one was 27...and the 'big' result (Richmond by 38) they were 1.25 favs. Big plunge of Richmond last year (1.85 into 1.67) resulted in just a 4 point win. I still like it to be close, now at some decent odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Kangas v. Freo under 195.5 (1.90) Crazy total, as I'm sure oz agrees. Freo mustering just 43 I50's per game on the road, not to mention their scoring conversion @ 2.50 shots per entry!!...Kangaroos is the 2d worst in the AFL at 2.33. Actually kind of happy I threw Geelong in my multi last night...I think it's saved me from at best a severe violent episode, or at worst deep depression! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Kangas v. Freo under 195.5 (1.90) Crazy total, as I'm sure oz agrees. Freo mustering just 43 I50's per game on the road, not to mention their scoring conversion @ 2.50 shots per entry!!...Kangaroos is the 2d worst in the AFL at 2.33. Yes I do agree. I'm on this too at Centrebet Kangas v. Freo under 195.5 (1.85) Actually kind of happy I threw Geelong in my multi last night...I think it's saved me from at best a severe violent episode, or at worst deep depression! :D It was a gr8 game and made me think twice about the Doggies as premiership contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Actually kind of happy I threw Geelong in my multi last night...I think it's saved me from at best a severe violent episode' date=' or at worst deep depression! :D[/quote']Yeah, well I'm now 1-1 for Johno shots after siren to win the game :wall. TBH I still think WBD aren't really that close to Geel. Intersting that Geelong did the tempo (psychological bacfire) thing at end of third, then came out like pussies in the last. There's a few players at the fringe of Bulldogs team that worry me (for quality) at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Yeah, well I'm now 1-1 for Johno shots after siren to win the game :wall. TBH I still think WBD aren't really that close to Geel. Intersting that Geelong did the tempo (psychological bacfire) thing at end of third, then came out like pussies in the last. There's a few players at the fringe of Bulldogs team that worry me (for quality) at present. You're going well...I'm 1-2!! :lol (Had Adelaide Rd. 1 last year...Dogs ML last miss...) Harbrow was beaten badly down back by Stokes, but I think he'll improve and it's not a bad 'experiment'... ...Callan Ward was GREAT in that last quarter. I dunno, I look and shake my head at "blokes" [barely!] like him and Selwood and think to what I was doing (and how I was built! :lol ) at 19! Amazing really. And young Billy I thought was ok to good. All without Murphy, who really is the most important player in our forward structure...admittedly no Milburn... ...I agree the gap isn't that narrow...but a good moral victory for me on the Bulldog board at BF. Been arguing consistantly for, well, years really!...against the majority who think we need a big forward and can't kick enough goals. We just aren't good enough defensively to contain good teams (or bad ones half the time! :lol ) Anyway, we didn't do too bad for a team in a white top! ;) AND, been typing 'cause I've been too scared to watch the Kangas game...solid 2H and especially 4Q of defense/clock wasting (I presume!) lads. :beer Another Crows 2H flop would be nice. :hope [Can't fault you on Port either. :ok Still after a but want better than 1.90.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 AND' date=' been typing 'cause I've been too scared to watch the Kangas game...solid 2H and especially 4Q of defense/clock wasting (I presume!) lads. :beer[/quote'] Dour 2nd half saved the under bet :clap 9.12.66 c.f. 17.15.117 in the 1st. Thank God for mediocrity. No plays on the totals 2nite. Weather's fined up here in the west as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Anyway, we didn't do too bad for a team in a white top! ;) :lol Oh yes, I forgot that - cost them the game!:lol Harbrow had an absolute Barry Crocker :$. Couldn't take a trick :(. Even the one where he took the play on and was about to charge through on a run with it, but slipped over :\. Williams, Hahn (although he did a few good things), Welsh are blokes you'll obvious look for improvement and of course Eagleton was good when the team was going good ;). Hill's not too far off being a star, by the looks, Picken's well worth his spot and I never mind Callan. Hargrave obviously sure's them up (yeah, with their best side we're surely talking ball park's). Still only early yet Taza. Of course, what they're like at about Rd-18 is the more important thing. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Oh yeah...I seem to remember pumping a pretty ordinary Hawthorn team about this time last year too! :unsure Carlton butchering this! Had every chance in the world for 45 minutes (early 3rd 'til mid 4th) and barely made a dent. :wall WC/Coll total is a bit low, but tempted by the 199.5 @ Ess!!...in fact, more than tempted. This Ess D is amazinjgly under-rated...and if I know Terry, playing for his career (despite Morton :eyes ..what an arrogant ******...and no, not you Mitch...), it's conservative all the way... ...not that they have the fire power to kick any kind of score anyway. (Haven't topped 100 all year)... ...and these 2 are a combined 3-13 under this number all season. under 199.5 (1.95) is too good to pass up. 95-80 Bombers will go down well... ...unless a 12-9 game is available?! :nana :nana :cow:cow :gimme :unsure [Just being silly for fun now! Have got that 'heavy drinking idiot' sentence stuck in my head! :rollin Back on the Dogs if I may...Williams is the weak link...which is by no means his fault. Asking he (and/or Everitt) to effectively hold down CHB is a big ask. Lake, to me, is a bigger worry. Seems to be lacking confidence badly...both with the ball, and without. Morris was beaten on the night by a very good player, but mid-field still is far too loose...despite Boyd's best efforts. Cross too slow [still a valuble player!], Griffen/Cooney/Gilbee too loose...just can't be giving up 58 I50's and expect to win. Anyway...Go, er, Cale Hookerbot...he's still about the only Essendon defender I know! ;) :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Anyway...Go' date=' er, Cale Hookerbot...he's still about the only Essendon defender I know! ;) :D[/quote']I was just running my eye over the Essendon D. McPhee's a well established name and Gary Dempsey's a 300 gamer I think, so they're really not as inexperienced as some people have been trying to tell me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 but tempted by the 199.5 @ Ess!!...in fact, more than tempted. This Ess D is amazinjgly under-rated...and if I know Terry, playing for his career (despite Morton :eyes ..what an arrogant ******...and no, not you Mitch...), it's conservative all the way... ...not that they have the fire power to kick any kind of score anyway. (Haven't topped 100 all year)... ...and these 2 are a combined 3-13 under this number all season. under 199.5 (1.95) is too good to pass up. 95-80 Bombers will go down well... ...unless a 12-9 game is available?! :nana :nana :cow:cow :gimme :unsure [Just being silly for fun now! Have got that 'heavy drinking idiot' sentence stuck in my head! :rollinDon't worry, it'll be Richmond 100 - Essendon 99 with 0:30 on the clock and Delideo 5-metres out running into the open goal but he'll chip backwards under instruction to ice the clock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Don't worry' date=' it'll be Richmond 100 - Essendon 99 with 0:30 on the clock and Delideo 5-metres out running into the open goal but he'll chip backwards under instruction to ice the clock.[/quote'] in fantasy land... * he misses the target.. loose ball... picked up by davey.. handball to lovett.. RUNNNNN LOVETT, handballs to stanton gives it back chips to zaharakis on the 50 , 4 seconds left to far out, plays on .. ZAHARAKIS tackled on the 50 gets the kick off just.. ZAHARAKISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!! * :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 melb over 15.5 @ 8$ has to be bet on the century :O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 in fantasy land... * he misses the target.. loose ball... picked up by davey.. handball to lovett.. RUNNNNN LOVETT, handballs to stanton gives it back chips to zaharakis on the 50 , 4 seconds left to far out, plays on .. ZAHARAKIS tackled on the 50 gets the kick off just.. ZAHARAKISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!! * Think last night both the Tigers and the Eagles thought it was 2008. Very frustrating to back these teams. Richmond delivered a typical 2nd half fade-out like they did a numbers of times last year and the Eagles served up the same ol' no-confidence, low-% BS they delivered most of last year as well. It was almost like the Pies had them under a spell. They preyed on their mental weakness and they fell for it and Mick conjures another backs-to-the-wall win and keeps up their gr8 i/state record. I won't go on to say that the Bombers are the real deal but they deserve to be on the upper end of the logjam atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 in fantasy land... * he misses the target.. loose ball... picked up by davey.. handball to lovett.. RUNNNNN LOVETT, handballs to stanton gives it back chips to zaharakis on the 50 , 4 seconds left to far out, plays on .. ZAHARAKIS tackled on the 50 gets the kick off just.. ZAHARAKISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!! * :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:lol I think we pretty much described what really did happen for the whole second half, as Richmond seemed to revert back to their 'careful fiddle with it' game plan. Why they changed, I can only speculate :puke. Some coaches comments I picked up from the telecast I watched that stuck in my mind were: Wallace: "I spent two hours Tuesday at my computer analyzing the opposition statistics. You've got to do that". [me: I'm not suggesting you shouldn't, but ...] :eyes Knight: "I don't like to inhibit players abilities (with negative game plans)" :clap Blight: (Inspired by Knights comments and glaring down the camera) "There's a message for all the other coaches out there". :clap ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Blight: (Inspired by Knights comments and glaring down the camera) "There's a message for all the other coaches out there". :clap ;) Not a fan of Ten commentary as a whole but I find Blight's whinging/outbursts the most entertaining. He tells it like it is :moon When you've won 2 premierships with the team he coached, you can pretty much say whatever you want. I hope ONE replay the Rich-Ess game during the week as I had the dour-fest in the West :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Things just aren't going to plan this year are they... Tigers just 3 less shots, 3 less I50's for a 40 point loss. No pressure at all in the last quarter after going in just 2 goals down... Bombers kick 15.15 and the world's a far happier place. It's beginning to grind my organ! :wall Oh well... ...Sydney v. Port over 184.5 (1.90) St. Kilda v. Brisbane under 198.5 (1.90) Sydney will kick straight and Brisbane won't get to 60. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 ...Sydney v. Port over 184.5 (1.90) St. Kilda v. Brisbane under 198.5 (1.90) Sydney will kick straight and Brisbane won't get to 60. :\ Heads up Taz :spank I will join you on St. Kilda v. Brisbane under 198.5 (1.90). I like this better than the Syd-Port game. Have noticed that Melb has come in 3pts on their hcp since lines were released on Wed. Hoping that the money is right here as well :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Will be looking for another under @ the 'G today, but may get held up due to weather conditions... Prepared to go reasonably low... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Will be looking for another under @ the 'G today, but may get held up due to weather conditions... Prepared to go reasonably low... Haven't seen a total yet and you will be 2/2 today in a short while :ok St.K-Bris looks a boilover atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Nice call on the Dees and Bombers, oz. :ok Port defense continues to, well, non-exist away from home...oh, and also great call on Bradshaw going back. Made that under all the easier to take. :cheers Decided I wanted 191.5 for the Melbourne under. Only saw 188.5. Got lucky! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 9 Nice call on the Dees and Bombers, oz. :ok Port defense continues to, well, non-exist away from home...oh, and also great call on Bradshaw going back. Made that under all the easier to take. :cheers Decided I wanted 191.5 for the Melbourne under. Only saw 188.5. Got lucky! :lol Thnx. I can't take credit for the Dees. Junk time goals helped there. Bomber-tigers: The right team won but taking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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