Dam-ming Proof - Or is it?

[billy the punter]

Been so busy (off-course) over the last few days - which was probably why I had a difficult week last week (normal service resumed since ;)). Will update my diary over the next few days. What are the thoughts on Sea The Stars fully getting the 1m4f in the Derby? Ladbrokes immediately went 5/2 after the Guineas which I thought was crazy. Here is something I started last week - just finished it off today... Dam-ming Proof - Or Is It? There are reasons why just one 2000 Guineas winner since 1970 has gone on to win the Derby. Firstly there is the trip argument. Breeding can sometimes tell just half the story; regardless of apparent stamina influences, if you have the speed to win a Guineas will you have the stamina to win a Derby? Secondly there is the worry that a horse has already peaked, the ability to keep a horse at the very top of his game is a tough ask. Thirdly, the timing of the race, not every horse can cope with two massive asks just over a month apart. Since 1970 only Nashwan has completed the double, but how reliable is this stat? How many have attempted, and how many of those who did had an apparent chance with regards to stamina? Year : 2003 Horse : Refuse To Bend Sire: Sadler's Wells (11.3f) Result : 13th at 11/4F Conclusion : Never raced over 1m4f after this and had success at those shorter trips, didn't stay in this grade. Year : 2001 Horse : Golan Sire : Spectrum (9.6f) Result : 2nd at 11.4J Conclusion : Got the trip fine (won King George later), but all career best form came when fresh, the horse was unable to put in another brilliant performance just a month after the Guineas. Year : 1998 Horse : King Of Kings Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f) Result : Last at 11/2 (reported to have finished lame) Conclusion : Impossible to tell if he got the trip, but the fact he showed so much speed at two (dual 6f winner) suggests staying 1m4f (in this grade) was far from certain. Unlikely he stayed in this grade. Year : 1997 Horse : Entrepreneur Sire : Sadler's Wells (11.3f) Result : 4th at 4/6F Conclusion : Finished "tired" and reverted to a mile for his only run after, didn't stay in this grade. Year : 1995 Horse : Pennekamp Sire : Bering (10.2f) Result : 11th at 11/8F Conclusion : Another that was reported to have finished lame. As with King Of Kings, I have my own opinion with regards to their stamina, although it cannot be proved. Unlike he stayed in this grade. Year : 1994 Horse : Mister Baileys Sire : Robellino (10.2f) Result : 4th at 14/1 Conclusion : Was always going to struggle to get home given the aggressive tactics employed for Derby day, but with the evidence of the Dante (where he travelled well but could only finished 3rd) it's safe to say he didn't stay in this grade. Year : 1992 Horse : Rodrigo De Triano Sire : El Gran Senor (8.9f) Result : 9th at 13/2F Conclusion : The Derby was his 4th run of the season so hard to know exactly what was behind his defeat at Epsom, also he was ridden to get the trip so it's possible he could have finished closer - after a mid-season break he won two G1's over 10f. His Derby flop was probably due to a number of things, but as he was never campaigned over 1m4f again, the evidence suggests he didn't stay in this grade. Despite the fact all were bred to get further than the Guineas trip of 1m (or even improve for the step up) just one definitely stayed the Derby trip - Golan. It proves that breeding is guide rather than proof in such matters and that running style and performances can be a better indication on what is the optimum trip for any horse. At the very least it appears these horses represent little value. To me, they were all priced as if they were guaranteed to stay the Derby trip, perhaps even improve for it. On that basis I struggle to see how any Guineas winner can be value for the Derby. This brings us nice to this season's 2000 Guineas winner, Sea The Stars, who is currently as short as 5/2 for these season's blue riband. Being by Cape Cross there are entitled to be plenty of trip worries, however there is more stamina on the dam side (Urban Sea). He is a half-brother to... Galileo - Derby winner Black Sam Bellamy - G1 winner over 1m4f Urban Ocean - 1m4f winner Melikah - placed in two Oaks All Too Beautiful - 2nd in Oaks Many will suggest this is enough to see Sea The Stars through with regards to stamina on the big day, however I'm not so sure. On closer inspection we find all of the above had stamina influences on the sire side as well; Galileo (Sadler's Wells), Black Sam Bellamy (Sadler's Wells), Urban Ocean (French Derby winner Bering), Melikah (Lammtarra), All Too Beautiful (Sadler's Wells). It's also worth noting that none of these had the speed to win a quality race over 1m. Melikah and All Too Beautiful never even ran over a mile, making their debuts over 10f. These are very different animals to Sea The Stars and making comparisons when looking for clues for the future could be dangerous. Just two of Urban Sea's offspring have failed to win at 1m4f and both horses had less of a stamina influence on the sire's side; My Typhoon by Giants Causeway and Cheery Hinton by Green Desert. Cherry Hinton was reverted to 8/9f after she was beaten in the Oaks, and My Typhoon was a multiple 9f winner in the States who failed to get home in both attempts at further. Like My Typhoon and Cherry Hinton, Sea The Stars has mile/intermediate/speed influences from his sire, and like those two it's a possibility that 1m4f could stretch his stamina. I'm not suggesting he definitely won't stay,but my doubts are surely valid, and at the current price does he represent value? As I believe a link to proven stayers has incorrectly been factored in with the price, for me the answer is simple.... No. Be lucky.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Dam-ming Proof - Or is it? Fantastic read billy, you are clearly very knowledgeable and its a pleasure to read stuff like this. :clap I can't add too much to this but all I will say is I couldn't back the horse at the current prices. Plenty to prove yet and with Epsom being a completely different track altogether, the value surely lies somewhere else.