Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup

[fintron]

2.45 - Chester Cup Has anyone had anything on this race yet? Run over 19f this heritage handicap, worth £74,772 to the winner, must rank as one of the longest flat races of the season? It is open to horses aged 4 yo upwards, and 17 runners are declared. The race threw up a surprise winner last year when Ian Williams' Bullwark rolled in at 33/1 which followed 14/1, 28/1 and 16/1 upsets on the previous three runnings. Two favourites have won this race in the last decade, the last of which was Anak Pekan in 2004, who actually retained his crown the following year for Michael Jarvis. Trends wise, very little stood out to me, although, as you would expect in a race of this length, proven ability over a distance of two miles plus is an obvious advantage as all of the last ten winners had previous winning form over 2m+. In all fairness, this race looks wide open. There are a couple of unexposed horses that could be ahead of the handicapper, but are not yet proven over the trip, and there are several older heads that have the ability to win, but appear inconsistent. In an attempt to find a winner I have focussed on trainer stats, looking for those trainers that have proven profitable to follow in staying races. David Arburthnot is one such man, and boasts an impressive record of 7-33 in 4 yo+ GB flat races run over 13f+ in the past five years, which amounts to level stakes profit of +29.83. The Berkshire handler is in good form at present too, with 2 winners from six runners in the past fortnight. Another trainer with good looking stats is Jim Old, whose figures under the same criteria are 3-8, with a LSP of +29, although there is little recent form to go on with regards to the yard's current form, as they have sent out just the one runner in the past fortnight, a 25/1 shot which pulled up at Bangor. Arbuthnot sends out Desert Sea here, whilst Old saddles up Gala Evening. Both of these horses clashed recently in a two mile handicap at Kempton, with Desert Sea coming out on top. Gala Evening is two pounds better off for a one and a half length defeat last time out, but made little impression on the winner that day and would be no certainty to reverse the form. Of the pair, Desert Sea is also the freshest. His victory in that class 2 race was his first run since September and thus he may still have more in reserve that Gala Evening, who has been mixing hurdling and flat racing, and has basically been kept on the go since October, with a mini break just before Christmas. He seems to be handling his racing well and has been finishing in and around the frame, so I will still have him, albeit at reduced stakes. Desert Sea could still be open to more improvement though, despite this 5 lb rise, he was second to the progressive Asker Tau last season over an indaequate trip, and he is my main bet, in a top heavy each-way bet. Desert Sea - 16/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt EW (1/4 odds, 4 places) & 0.25 pt win Gala Evening - 16/1 Paddypower, 0.25 pt win

[TOP CAT]

Re: Chester 6/5/09 - Including Chester Cup The chester cup is such a hard race to catch a winner from, well for me anyway, dont think ive ever had a chester cup winner, anyway am going to have a few bucks e/w on jim old's runner with R.Hughes in the saddle, the reason for this is R.Hughes seems to get a tune out him and his last 2 wins Hughes was doing the steering, ok that was over 2m and this is 2m 3f but he seems to have been warmed up for this race and my cash is going e/w. Its a tough race and your doing well if you pick the winner.