Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Becher Chase Fabalu 1pt EW - 14/1 Yard and jockey going great guns at the moment. I like this horse a lot. 6th at the festival in the 4 miler. 2 very good wins either side and the horse he beat lto has won several times since. Improvement expected and should relish this test. Usually jumps well and these fences shouldn't be any problem. I think he's very well handicapped and hopefully yard have him 100% fit after the lay-off. They usually don't run them unfit, so no concerns on that front. It seems this has been the target for a long time.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Champion Hurdle Cue Card 1pt win - 16/1 Very strong vibes coming from the Tizzards that this fella will be bypassing the novice route and will go straight to the CH. If he was trained in Ireland and had won the bumper like he did, he'd be evens for the Supreme and 8/1 for the CH. Dunguib jumped like a dog, beat dogs in Ireland and was such a big hype. Cue Card jumps impeccably, beat a 140+ rated horse on the bridle lto and already has the form to be a Supreme winner. I know Binocular is very good and Hurricane Fly might finally get there, but I think Cue Card will be there too and I'll sacrifice 1 pt.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Arkle Chase Secant Star 1pt win - 70.0 Still a 4yo and it will be a challenge to win the Arkle as a 5yo, but he is every bit a chaser and everything he did as a hurdler was a bonus. Always fancied him for the Triumph, but had a setback and they didn't risk him. It might be a big advantage. The Triumph horses rarely build on their juvenile career. He is running at Naas next week and if all goes well, it should be an easy trade. I still think he will be a chaser to follow this season. I know they like him a lot at home.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ascot 2.45 Russian Flag 1pt win - 5/1 Got hampered and came from miles back to get 3rd under a big weight lto. Should strip fitter here and is racing off 129 with the 3lb claimer on board (126). Last winning mark is 128. I think the horse stays the extended trip and with the other 3 runners having questions to answer, I see no reason why he is that big a price. Musselburgh 12.55 Cailin Na Ri 0.75pt EW - 20/1 This looks a competitive affair and a case can be made for most of the runners, but I think my selection has been overlooked a bit. Very consistent before his latest flop. 3 miles and softer ground didn't suit lto. His previous effort was a close 2nd to Russian War both miles clear of the rest. Russian War went on to win at Cheltenham off 122. Cailin Na Ri races off 114 here and Alexander Voy claims 5lbs off his back. I think he'll be thereabouts today and shouldn't be any bigger than 12/1 back over 2m4f on good ground. Exeter 1.15 Ernst Blofeld 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Usual tongue tie is back and he goes over hurdles after the refusal lto. I rate this horse and his form looks bombproof. Close 2nd to Little Josh at Haydock with Edgbriar in 3rd. Both have franked the form since. Then went on to win a novice chase at Carlisle upped to 3 miles. Heavy ground and 3 miles around here will suit and I think he might be well handicapped. Yard wouldn't run him here just as a confidence booster. I'm certain they'll be trying to win this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 1.15 Pret A Thou 0.5pt EW - 12/1 Overpriced and should continue improving after a decent reappearance win over hurdles. Ascot 12.55 Alteranthela 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Loves the mud, but overpriced and worth ashot here. That 2nd behind Ravenclaw is good from and he made his chasing debut lto. Should be 100% fit and ready here. Ascot 1.30 Cat Six 0.75pt EW - 25/1 In cracking form since change of stables. Had a spin on the flat and worth an EW wager at the price today. Ascot 3.10 Cockney Trucker 0.75pt EW - 11/2 Always fancied as a hurdler, but didn't do well early in his career. Was 3rd at the festival though and now improving over fences. Looks well handicapped to me. Huntingdon 1.05 Frontier Dancer 0.5pt win - 7/1 Good hurdler and worth a small bet here. If Golan Way disappoints, he's likely to pick up the pieces. Shouldn't be bigger than Balzaccio and Pearlysteps. Huntingdon 2.15 Bennynthejets 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Won this race last year off just 2lb lower. It's more competitive affair this time around, but he had a spin recently and I expect a bold bid.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Huntingdon 2.45 Tighe Caster 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Usually would be vulnerable back over hurdles, but his last effort in a seller was pretty decent. Front 2 are good horses and he was very close to them. Worth a small interest imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Aintree 1.45 Gullible Gordon 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Never been a fan of this horse until last time. Given an aggresive ride from the front, he jumped really well and won easily. Raised 8lb for that, but Rian Mahon claims 5. I think he will relish these fences and front runners usually do well around here. Should improve again and at the price, I think he is worth a bet. Navan 2.45 Pomme Tiepy 0.75pt EW - 18/1 Won a novice chase over C&D. Been hit and miss last two seasons, but his novice form puts him very well in off today's mark. Ran a very good 6th at Cheltenham fresh last year and I think he can come back to form here. He is extremely well handicapped and yard is starting to fire. When they do, they usually win with anything.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Aintree 1.10 Son Of Flicka 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Not particularly well handicapped, but 7lb claimer will help a lot and he showed he is still very much on the up with a close 3rd at Cheltenham last month. Aintree 2.55 Sunarri 0.5pt win - 8/1 Eighteen Carat 0.5pt win - 11/1 Both overpriced here. Sunarri won well lto and should improve. Eighteen Carat had jumping problems, but I expect the yard to have solved them over the summer and he could be well in here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hennessy Gold Cup Taranis 1pt win - 14/1 Neptune Collonges 1pt win - 16/1 I think Paul Nicholls holds the key here. He was almost ready to run Kauto Star, so all of the field could be out of the handicap keeping his Neptune Collonges and Denman in the handicap and Taranis just a few lbs out. As things stand, I think he still has every chance of another 1,2 like last year. I don't really like the 2nd season chasers this year. Weird Al has been cut to 5/1, because Little Josh won the Paddy Power, but that's a bit skinny for me. Would probably save stake on Denman and something else on the day, but these are my two main selections.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Such a frustrating run. Today some good returns, but again .. Son Of Flicka 2nd. Gullible Gordon travelled well before falling at Bechers. Pomme Tiepy 18/1 5th just outside the places. Tighe Caster EW 4th just outside the places at 25/1 yesterday.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ludlow 1.10 Azulada Bay 0.75pt EW - 5/1 Form of his last two efforts working out well. In The Zone ran a very good 2nd lately and the horse that beat him lto won again since. This race doesn't look particularly inspiring and I think he can finally get off the mark today.

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 great shout again today mate, been an unlucky few weeks for you, but 2 nice winners in last 2 days :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheers mate. Going for a 3rd consecutive profitable day :ok :hope Sedgefield 1.00 Dorabelle 2pt win - 9/4 Bolted up lto and seems to like softer ground. Has the double penalty, but good amateur claims 8lbs and has every chance to follow up today. The Gordon Elliot runner looks exposed. Ferdy Murphy has an interesting contender, but his 2nd lto isn't working out well. The horses around him haven't done much since.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Lingfield 2.20 Chase Gate 0.5pt EW - 100/1 Hasn't shown much in two novice hurdles, but is a point winner and on heavy ground freak results can happen. Today's trip might just suit him. Recession Proof is unproven on the ground. Cleaver has been out for more than a year. Latin America ran an absolute stinker two weeks ago. The only solid pick would be Brackloon High, but Dickie sometimes tends to have those off days in the jumping department. I just might have a squeak for a place in this race if my selection possesses any sort of ability. Worth a small bet at the price.

[billvernon]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 So near yet so far 4th Ugh !!:(

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Sandown 2.55 Alph 0.5pt EW - 12/1 The veteran has been in great form lately and I'm surprised how much speed he still has considering his age. Stiff 2 miles will suit him today and he gets his favourite good ground. On some of his previous form, one could say he is very well in here. Maybe not as good as before, but odds compilers have underestimated him a bit. At the price he makes not such a bad EW appeal I reckon.

Just cruised home at 20/1 :pukeWould have tipped, but 10s was a bit skinny this morning. Not been my month, it's official.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

So near yet so far 4th Ugh !!:(

Yea and travelled well. I almost got my in-running lay matched at 20s. Had 280 for the win :sad

[Aidymac]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Gutted for you there Mileni, was travelling like a dream so it was.. Definately one to stay on the right side of and you will always get a decent price on it now because Frost trains it.. Hard luck again

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 He should run in a handicap nto, but handicapper might raise him for this. If he thinks front two are 130 rated, he can put him at 100, which would be harsh. If he's around 90, I think he'd have a squeak in a handicap nto.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Chepstow 1.40 Turn Up 0.5pt EW - 9/1 Every chance when falling at the last lto. Form of his previous run looks decent. War Party won again since. Wingull was 2nd. When 2nd at Worcester he beat Fongoli, who is closely matched on weights with today's fav Roc De Guye. My selection is overpriced and has every chance to beat the fav here on that form. Slower going and stiffer track will suit and should be a bit shorter in the market.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Chepstow 2.15 Anak 1pt EW - 7/1 A good juvenile, who won at Plumpton and was a decent 2nd with a penalty at Sundown. Had a break since and that's probably for the best. Juveniles can benefit from light campaigns early in their career. Improvement expected here upped to 3 miles and softer going will suit. Can't see many improvers in this field and off 124, the selection could be very well handicapped. Tom Scu rides him well and at the price, I think he is well worth a bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.10 Prince Geeno 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Would have been a big bet if the blinkers were on. Won really well with them lto and should make a fine chaser. Many in form rivals here, but gets a stone form all of them and I'd be surprised if he's not better than his current mark. Yard usually knows how to get them ready on seasonal reappearance. Just worried the blinkers are not retained, but worth a bet at the price anyway. 2.45 Ballycracken 0.5pt EW - 18/1 The 3rd behind Grands Crus looks fair form and has started fav on his last three starts. Nicky had problems with his horses when this fella ran and many of his stable mates finished well beat as if they needed the run. Should be a lot fitter now and at the price, I think he represents good value. It's a very competitive race, but this horse should be well handicapped and last time was too bad to be true. Taunton 3.30 Justabout 0.5pt EW - 9/1 In good form and 10lb claimer puts him very well in on what he has shown this summer. Two unexposed market rivals, but the rest of the field is nothing special and Tizzard always knows how to improve these types. Thurles 12.35 Apt Approach 0.75pt win & place - 7/2 & Betfair SP Not a fan of Catch Me and selection should improve for his latest run. Always thought he needs the 3 miles and he gets the trip today. Yard hitting form and at the price, I fancy him to beat Catch Me and if he does, he'll have every chance of winning here. Uttoxeter 2.35 Black Apache 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Shaped like a non stayer over similar trips, but I think he is one paced and will stay well. The odds-on fav is the only in-form horse. All of the rest are easily opposable and with 8 runners, the selections makes a good EW bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Hennessy Gold Cup Taranis 1pt win - 14/1 Neptune Collonges 1pt win - 16/1 I think Paul Nicholls holds the key here. He was almost ready to run Kauto Star, so all of the field could be out of the handicap keeping his Neptune Collonges and Denman in the handicap and Taranis just a few lbs out. As things stand, I think he still has every chance of another 1,2 like last year. I don't really like the 2nd season chasers this year. Weird Al has been cut to 5/1, because Little Josh won the Paddy Power, but that's a bit skinny for me. Would probably save stake on Denman and something else on the day, but these are my two main selections.

Taranis 0.5pt win - 14/1 additional bet Neptune Collonges 0.5pt win - 20/1 additional bet Madison Du Berlais 0.25pt win - 16/1 Big Fella Thanks 0.25pt win - 14/1 Weird Al 0.5pt win - 6/1 Denman 0.75pt win - 4/1 Burton Port 0.25pt win - 8/1 5pt staked overall

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.45 Passato 0.5pt EW - 25/1 With Ian Popham claiming 5 he is back to his last winning mark and shorter trip and flat track will suit.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 3.40 Working Title 0.5pt win - 5/1 Mount Oscar 0.75pt EW - 10/1 The Hollinwell 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Saver on the Henderson improver. Mount Oscar won this off same mark and has the best 3lb claim in the country to help him. The Hollinwell should be a lot better than this mark, let's hope there's a day when the yard's finally trying.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 12.55 Sarahs Gift 0.75pt EW - 10/1 Makes mistakes and that cost him at Sandown, but ran on well in the end to go clear 2nd. Newbury is a track where horses can get into a rhythm and iffy jumpers sometimes relish it around here. Rian Mahon is probably the best rider in this amateur race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 1.30 Ballyegan 0.75pt EW - 22/1 Reluctant to leave this one considering the terrible form the yard is in. He ran well in a maiden hurdle 2 weeks ago and the from looks decent. 3rd looks a nice prospect and was 10th in the champion bumper and 5th in the Punchestown champion bumper. Winner has decent bumper form too. With place and win in pointers, he is really interesting off feather weight on chasing debut and I just hope yard doesn't have a virus. At least this fella ran well recently, so he should be fine. Too big price to ignore even in a competitive race like this.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kempton 2.10 Colour Scheme 1pt win - 4/1 Rare bet from me on the flat, but this fella looks seriously unexposed. Ran into trouble lto and still won cosily. There's probably a lot more to come from him and I'm a fan of the yard.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 2.00 Advisor 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Impressive as a juvenile early in the season before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. Had a breathing operation in the summer and fresh might be the time to catch him. Tocca Ferro will take a lot of beating, but I'm not sure about The Betchworth Kid back over 2m and I'm not a fan of Olofi. This 16/1 seems rather big.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newbury 12.55 Carrickmines 0.5pt EW - 20/1 When Dr. Newland is on form, all his horses run well. First time blinkers might do the trick here. Carrickmines has slipped to a winning mark an worth a shot imo.