Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Paddy Power Gold Cup Noland 0.75pt EW - 25/1

Great Endeavour 1.5pt win - 5/1 Impressive winner at the festival in March. Think he is the best handicapped horse in the Paddy Power. Not a fan of Long Run around Cheltenham and imo GE deserves to be favourite. Pipe's usually have strong hand in this contest and father Martin has won it 7 times between 1996 and 2005. I personally think this fella can be an outside shot for the Gold Cup.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fontwell 2.50 Ere Alfie 1pt win - 11/4 Decent reappearance and should be 100% here. The favorite could be well handicapped, but they usually need the run from that stable. And the low weight of the selections makes him stronger chance imo. Yard is slowly starting to show hints of form.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Down Royal 3.05 Royal De La Thinte 0.75pt EW - 6/1 Didn't do well for previous stable, but has won 2 points since and changed stables. New trainer has great record with chasers. 3 wins and 2 2nds from 10 runners and Andrew Lynch takes the ride. I think this horse could be anything and fav is definitely beatable. At the price the EW bet is well worth a try.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Down Royal 3.05 Royal De La Thinte 0.75pt EW - 6/1

Thought I had this when the fav went off the bridle. Mistake at the 2nd last didn't help, but probably always going to get beat. Surprised andrew Linch didn't stretch them more. The horse will stay. In this case he might have just blown up though, so no complaints. Another one of the odds on in running getting beat club (traded 1.34).

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 3.20 Ouzbeck 0.5pt EW - 11/1 In cracking form since joining Ema Lavelle. Wasn't asked much on latest appearance when Jack Doyle rode him on the bridle down the hill and then stayed on for 3rd up the hill. I think he is still well handicapped. Have doubts for all the Nicholls runners in terms of trip, well-being and attitude. The Package might need further. Buena Vista is inconsistent and prefers Cheltenham. I'moncloudnine is interesting, but too short now.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kelso 1.30 Jack The Blaster 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Goes well fresh and is very lightly raced despite his age. Not sure about the market leaders at all. Or de Grugy goes well here, but might struggle off this mark after the win lto. Cast Iron Casey is always thereabouts, but not one to rely on for winning. At 4/1 also no betting proposition. My selection also tends to find something to beat him, but I don't think there are problems in his attitude. Well capable of winning off today's mark imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sandown 3.30 Magical Legend 0.5pt EW - 11/1 Sarahs Gift 0.5pt EW - 11/1 Magical Legend has been running well in novice chases and has a decent mark for this handicap debut. Conditions will suit and Richie McLernon more than value for his 3lb claim. Sarahs Gift can be lazy, but has won fair share of races and trainer continues to do well with him. Might not have much hidden from the handicapper, but is overpriced and should run another good race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sandown 2.55 Alph 0.5pt EW - 12/1 The veteran has been in great form lately and I'm surprised how much speed he still has considering his age. Stiff 2 miles will suit him today and he gets his favourite good ground. On some of his previous form, one could say he is very well in here. Maybe not as good as before, but odds compilers have underestimated him a bit. At the price he makes not such a bad EW appeal I reckon.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Market Rasen 4.05 Mischief Man 0.25pt win - 5/2 Sundown Trail 0.75pt win - 13/2 Sundown Trail was bought for quite a lot of money by owner JP McManus, but is yet to show a run justifying the big price tag. Trip and soft ground will suit him today though and in a race lacking depth, he could have a decent chance. The favourite won well lto and if he acts on soft going can be a danger, so a saver on him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Hereford 4.15 Honourable Dreamer 0.5pt EW - 20/1 Not gone on after close 4th in good Kempton bumper, but not one to write off just yet and Jonjo is on form lately. Not much depth and at the price the selection is worth a few quid EW imo. The race isn't at all inspiring.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Southwell 2.45 Keep Guessing 0.5pt win - 12/1 Closesthingtocrazy 0.5pt win - 8/1 Both potential improvers and both look decent price. Have a few questions about the market leaders and I think this race won't take much winning. If I don't catch a tarter in Jonjo's horse, I think I'll have every chance with those two.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 3.00 Hunters Ploy 0.5pt win Bit tied up this week. Just found 5 minutes to post this fella. Just thought he will be 100% here, while the rest might use this as a prep run and at double figures, he could be worth a few quid. Will take Betfair SP for results.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Sedgefield 3.00 Cranky Corner 0.75pt EW - 6/1 7th in the champion bumper and won a maiden hurdle for Willie Mullins. Jonjo tried everything to ruin the horse, but he has now joined Sue Smith and can continue his early promise. Travelled well for a long way lto and should strip fitter here. Not sure about the market leaders in this race. They are good horses, but a bit overrated in the market. My selection makes a good bet at the price imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Lingfield 2.40 Brushford 1.5pt win - 7/1 Mr Bond 0.5pt win - 5/1 A race where every runner has questions to answer including the selection. I am willing to give him a chance though. It was hist first race since February and sometimes a race can just be ignored. Lots of last time out fallers in this race. Some after a lengthy absence, others with terrible form. Considering Brushford is only 7lb higher than his last winning mark, I think he can win this race if back to form. Both wins look good form. Both are narrow, but the rest of the field is nowhere. And both horses he beat have went on to win after that. Mr Bond was going well until falling lto and could run a good race if none the worse for that mistake and warrants a saver with a clear round here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Bangor 3.40 Sansili 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Looked one paced so far, so sower going will suit. Trainer usually does well with these types when they go handicapping and with the juvenile allowance, he could be well treated here. Not a particularly strong race and with the 8 runners, he looks a decent EW bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 The Greatwood Handicap Sure Josie Sure 1pt EW - 12/1 A game mare, who just about creeps in the bottom of the handicap. Beat Nearby, who has franked the form several times since. The more rain the better for her and if she doesn't need the run, she could run a big race on Sunday. Considering she is one of Pipe's, I am certain she'll be very close to 100%.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.50 Ballyadam Brook 0.5pt EW - 12/1 Very consistent Irish rider, who comes here after some decent runs in Ireland. Got beat in G3 lto, but he didn't jump well that day and the horse that beat him is not bad at all. If he improves his jumping, he could go really close here. Paul Townend coming over for just the one ride a big positive.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.15 Notabotheronme 0.5pt EW - 20/1 Improved for cheek-pieces winning at Chepstow and then finishing 2nd at Warwick. Possibly over the top at Newbury on latest start. I think the odds compilers are making a mistake here. It's true the horse needs softer and is a lazy sort, but with the cheek-pieces applied, he's been straightforward. He proved it last year. Best form is on soft and heavy, but he has a 2nd at Chepstow on good to soft and ran a very good race last year here when 6th behind Razor Royale again on good to soft. With the yard in such a great form, I think this fella has his chances off the bottom of the handicap.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 2.25 Keelaghan 1pt win - 4/1 Tricky race, where Dave's Dream and Rivaliste are capable of much better than they've shown so far and Safari Journey is in cracking form. I think Keelaghan might be the handicap good thing here though. At the top of his game with 2 consecutive wins this summer. Was also 2nd on the flat. Off 131 he could be very well treated and probably worth sliding with him with the champ booked to ride when JP has another horse in the race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.55 Ballyfitz 0.75pt EW - 14/1 I said to myself I can't back him over fences again after all mistakes he likes to do, but he looks extremely well treated off his current mark and Sam Twiston-Davies claims further 3lbs from his back. He loves Cheltenham and is best fresh. Considering he was quite good as a novice and the 4th in the Paddy Power last year, I'm willing to give him a chance. Trip will suit and I don't see many particularly well handicapped horses in this race. Cheltenham 2.35 Great Endeavour 1.5pt win - 5/1 (antepost) Passato 0.25pt EW - 100/1 (5 places at Lads) Great Endeavour my main selection backed a week ago. Unfortunately Noland is not contesting the race. The 25/1 would have been massive on him. I'm also backing an outsider at a massive price here. Not exactly my type of selection. The horse looks exposed after 4 consecutive wins over the summer. This year's Paddy Power lacks depth though and I think he might be thereabouts if he puts his best foot forward. Improved for step-up in trip when beating Classic Swain at Newton Abbot. His winning run started at Exeter, so he handles undulating tracks ok. He was given 2 month break before lto and he seemed to struggle mid race, but ran on up the hill in 7th. He was favourite that day and might still have a race in himself. Dropped 3lb and only 6lb higher than his last winning mark. 200 at Betfair too big imo and worth a minimum EW nibble. Big fan of Jamie Moore and a big positive he has been booked to ride. Cheltenham 3.10 Maucaillou 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Strong travelling type, who finished 4th in this race last year. Has lots of placed efforts including a 2nd 2 years ago at the meeting, but just can't get his head in front. Change of stables might do the trick. With Martin Keighley now, who is slowly hitting form. Not quite sure there are many unexposed types in this race and at the price I think he is not a bad EW proposition.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.55 Character Building 0.5pt EW - 11/1 The enigma that is Character Building remains well handicapped because of his attitude. Demonstrated it lto when hitting the front and stopping. I think the tongue tie is key here. Won at the 2009 festival with it and it clearly helps him. I can't believe connections don't run him with headgear more often. With the champ on board, I have a feeling he'll go very close today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 1.20 Balthazar King 0.5pt EW - 16/1 I don't think my selection is the best horse in the race, but his jumping is brilliant and he might just be hard to peg back today. Was bang there in contention lto and just missed on a place. I don't think he has stopped improving and with yard on fire, he makes a new EW bet at the price. Got matched at 18.5 on Betfair and that is too big. He shouldn't be any bigger than 10s.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Uttoxeter 3.20 Quam Celerrime 2pt win - 11/4 Well supported when 4th lto, but things didn't go according to plan. His previous 3rd has been franked with Babilu and Prince Massini both winning since. In a very weak race, I think the selection is a worthy favourite and should take all the beating.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 3.40 Khayar 0.5pt EW - 16/1 I always find these novice handicaps at Cheltenham quite tricky. I like this Irish runner though. He made marked improvement at Punchestown lto when 2nd to Turner Brown. The latter was going really well yesterday when falling at the 4th last. Competent claimer takes off 7lb and off just 10-3 I think this horse is overpriced. 20s available on Betfair, which imo is twice the price he should be.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 3.40 Bold Addition 1pt win - 13/2 Unexposed and on a fair mark here. Related to Big Bucks and I will be surprised if he's not better than his current mark. Been 11 months off the track, but champion trainer gets them ready for particular races and I'm not impressed by his fellow "unexposed" rivals. I think my selection could be very well in here. We'll see in a few hours if I'm right.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 3.25 General Hardi 0.75pt EW - 8/1 Won at Sedgefield off 104 6lbs outside of the handicap and then finished a close 2nd off 112. Ran ok on reappearance lto and should be 100% fit here. Running off 116 with decent 7lb claimer on board and that puts him with every chance if he runs up to his April form. Yard is in very good nick at the moment and few of these here have some serious questions to answer. Take the 2/1 for place at Betfair to be sure on 3 places.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 2.55 Russian War 0.75pt EW - 18/1

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Unfortunately this month didn't go well so far and many horses that travelled and traded short just didn't win. 2 weeks to crawl back into better figures of course, but I injured my shoulder and can't spend a lot of time in front of the PC. Doing physiotherapy and resting mostly at the moment. I hope I can post a bet or two when I have a look at some of the better races, but in general I won't be posting that frequently.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 3.20 January 0.5pt win - 10/1 January 0.5pt place - Betfair SP (3 places) Been given some terrible rides by Timmy Murphy and glad to see Tom Scu on. Ran well under McCoy in the summer winning off 94 and then just beaten off 101. In The Zone has franked the form several times since. Will handle the softer ground and I think the horses at the top of the weights are underpriced. Market Rasen 2.40 Stick Together 0.5pt EW - 9/1 C&D winner, who travelled extremely well and tired just before the last flight. Drop back to 2m5f will suit and should be fit today. Yard is in good form and I think the price is worth a bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Wincanton 3.20 January 0.5pt win - 10/1 January 0.5pt place - Betfair SP (3 places)

Add another 0.25pt here @ 15/2 & BSP.