Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 3.55 Film Festival 0.5pt EW - 17/2 Two promising runs over fences so far this season. At Sedgefield he looked like winning and got nailed on the line. Last time he led 4 out, then got outpaced and stayed on again in the end to grab 3rd. He likes doing that and he has done it in the past too. Shapes as if longer trip will suit. Wins at 1m4f at Catterick and Carlisle on the flat make me think he will love 2m4f today. Also the jockey is strong in finish and the selection appreciates firm hands. Market leaders are making their seasonal debuts and at this time of year I prefer backing fit and in form horses, who have performed well over the summer. Yard has a great record with chasers and I think the price warrants a bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 3.25 Ashammar 1pt EW - 4/1 Bolted up lto and 9lb raise might not be enough to stop him. Few inform horses here, who could be bad handicapped now after shot up the weights. Few might need the run. I think the selection is a safe EW bet in a race, where he looks the major unexposed improver.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wetherby 5.00 Sweden 1pt win - 3/1 I hope yard doesn't do a Cappa Bleu here. The horse comes from same connections and has a very good pointing form. 4 wins and 2 2nds from 8 runs. Tried in a 4 miler at Cheltenham in May. This seems to be a weak novice chase and I think Sweden should be fav ahead of Long Strand. Might prefer softer ground, but simply taking ability under consideration, I think he'll be a lot better than all of these. If it wasn't this particular yard involved, I'd have had a bigger stake.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Uttoxeter 3.45 Like A Hurricane 0.5pt EW - 6/1 This does seem like a big price. Fav won well lto and will improve, but so should the selection. There's also a slight worry about Ackertac's jumping. He didn't particularly impress me in his latest outing. Probably odds compilers have taken under consideration the fact that Alan King's usually benefit from their first run, but that was last year when yard had troubles. He usually has them fit, so I don't have worries on that front. His last win in March was after almost 2 years off the tracks. Good form line is the 3rd place behind the classy Inventor. Looked one paced in bumpers and will definitely benfit from the trip. Proved he stays it lto and should be thereabouts in a novice hurdle, where nothing except the fav and the 2nd fav really appeal.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 2.20 Singapore Harbour 0.5pt EW - 28/1 Handicap debut today and no surprise seeing him tried over 4f further. He was 4th lto. Traveled well, but but just couldn't go with the 3 leaders when they upped the tempo. They are all at least 15-20lb better than him though, so no surprise there especially over 2m2f. 90 is a fair mark and I expect improvement over 2m6f. Trainer usually knows what he's doing.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 3.50 Orion Star 1pt win - 10/3 I have doubts over all of these. Classic Clover won this last year, but off far lower mark and is not reliable despite running well lately. Wizard Of Edge has his own wizard Timmy Murphy on board, who knows how to get the best out of him and to win, but he needs soft ground, so again not a betting proposition at the price. If Hobbs has found the key to Lord Lescribaa, then he'll be with every chance, but I think he is a bit of a monkey. Hanging and throwing away the win when 2nd two starts ago. Then ran a stinker last time. The rest are all double figures and I don't see much appeal from any of them. The selection comes here after a break and I have a slight doubt about how fit he would be, but the form of his last win at Exeter looks extremely good and I have to get involved. 2nd and 3rd have won since. 4th has been 2nd. He can be a bit sketchy with his jumping, but if he puts it together, he'll go close. He did that lto.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 5.05 Mont Present 0.5pt win - 11/1 Oscar Glory 0.5pt win - 20/1 Going with two against the field here. Mont Present is a french import, who was beaten by Tell No One on his last french run 2 years ago. The latter has been contesting grade races in France since. Game winner at Worcester in May and is unexposed off 122. Haven't seen much of the rider, but yard is in flying form and the selection should have improved over the summer. If fit and ready, I think he'll give me a run for the money. Form on good ground reads 1,2,2,3,1. Form on softer reads 8,PU,5. Oscar Glory has been disappointing in his last two starts, but prior to that his chasing form reads pretty well - 1,1,F,3,1,2. Started fav for this race last year and is racing off same mark today. Having the best rider in the race, I am willing to give him a chance. I think he can spring a surprise and return to form under Nina.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 3.55 Victor Daly 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Impressive form figures when fresh - 1,3,1,1,1,1. Almost every time he bounces on his 2nd runs as well, so this has to be the time to catch him. Martin Keighley is local trainer and usually sends horses with good chances to the track. It's a very competitve renewal this year, but off feather weight and improvememnt in him, I think Victor Daly can run a big race today. Good jockey on board making the weight and the price is value.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Kelso 4.05 Always Right 1pt EW - 9/2 11th in the Foxhunters 2 years ago. Bolted up on his last start here over 2f shorter and will love the trip today. May prefer softer ground, but won a hunters chase on good ground at Perth 2 years ago, so there shouldn't be any problems on that front. Impressive point to point record with many wins to his name. Race lacks depth and Brian Hughes a very good booking. Should be 5/2 imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheltenham 4.25 Russian War 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Handicap debut for this irish runner, who has been winning on the bridle in novices and maidens over the summer. Had to work harder under AP lto, but I think he needs Paul Carberry. The horse is a strong traveller and Paul will put him wherever he wants today. Let's just hope he is good enough to get involved. The reason I like him is because he wins by short distances and could have hidden a lot from the handicapper. Plenty of the runners are potential improvers, but I think the price here is worth a try. The selection is fit and ready with summer of good runs behind him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Newmarket 2.25 Dream Ahead/Frankel - 1pt straight FC Just switch trainers here and you'll have completely different market. Frankel could be a superstar, but the form is shouting to back Dream Ahead. If I still had active Ladbrokes account I would have backed DA like mad. He was 7/2 with 3 places available few days ago.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Great winner with Russian War Mileni - it was well backed too :ok Well done with Fidelis the other day, that was fairly weak in the market but won well well done :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Cheers, mate :ok Had a very good price on Fidelis myself. Surprised he was 7/1 SP compared to the double figure prices available on Betfair. Took 20/1 early at Betfair on Russian War too :dude

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Plumpton 4.50 Winsley Hill 0.5pt EW - 5/1 Form of his latest win stands up. Is It Me almost won at Cheltenham on Saturday. Another good effort lto, when chasing home Phillip Hobbs and Nick Williams improvers over shorter than ideal trip. Back to 3 miles today will suit and when on form he is capable of winning off this mark. Did it twice last year in October. Not entirely sure the depth of this race is any good and it could easily go to the best stayer in the end. I think Winsley Hill has the stamina and the form to win today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Exeter 4.10 Princess Flame 0.5pt EW - 11/1 Usually I'd be looking at the progressive sorts in these races, but at Exeter it's not always that straightforward. I have few doubts about the market leaders today and will go with the price on this Brendon Powell old timer, who's been in decent form lately. Not a 2 miler anymore and appreciated the 2 miles on the flat last month when winning nicely. Ran a good 2nd two weeks ago and when on form, he can be relied upon. Seems to do all his winning at this time of the year. Had a winning spree two years ago with 2 flat wins and then another success off 112 over hurdles. Last year wasn't as good, but he still boosted some 2nds. Considering he is now racing off 97 and on the back of two very good runs, I think he could be well treated here and represents nice EW value at the price on offer.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Worcester 4.20 Kilvergan Boy 1pt EW - 4/1 Trainer boosts 40% strike rate with his hurdlers so far this month and I like the chances of Kilvergan Boy today. Dropped 20lbs last season after some bad runs, but steadily came to form with good 4th and 2nd in his last two starts. After a summer off, I can see him improving and going close today. This is not a particularly strong race. Jonjo has a handicap debutant, but the yard is not amongst the winners at the moment. Vaughan's could be interesting, but I think he's in need of bigger stamina test. From the outsiders I don't see any particular dangers.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Carlisle 2.55 Sonara 0.5pt EW - 6/1 Decent effort on the flat lto and should be 100% here. Finished 2nd at Musselburgh and his hurdling form has a lot to be desired, but he is well handicapped and money are coming for him this morning.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fakenham 2.35 Emperor Concerto 1pt win - 11/4 Just the 5 runners here, but quite a competitive affair with the Scottish National 3rd No Panic in the race. He is coming here on the back of 2 very good wins as well. The rest are not out of it either, but I just think there is a lot more to come from my selection. 2nd season chaser, who runs well fresh. Won on seasonal reappearance last year. His last 3rd is behind 2 very good horses. Alan King's Junior and Paul Nicholls' Recif De Thaix. With yard in good form, I think Emperor Concerto will run a big race today. He is unexposed and should be a lot better than 130 rated in time. If fit and ready, I think he'll give me a run for the money. No reason not to be.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Fakenham 2.00 Stravita 3pt EW - 11/4 Interesting selling handicap here with Jim Best running his mare Stravita. She pulled too hard lto on the mud at Uttoxeter. Combination of first run, soft ground and slow pace didn't suit her at all. Today I expect a lot better showing. The race is poor and the main danger Adage was withdrawn. There should be pace here and the ground will suit her. At the price I think she has a massive EW chance. Getting 75% of the stake if she 's only placed.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Aintree 2.10 Master Fong 0.5pt EW - 33/1 Nearby 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Master Fong was a decent handicapper for Barry Hills on the flat and moved to Donald McCain to have a hurdling career. Probably should have won more, but I like his 2nd behind Osric at Bangor. Should be capable of much better and good price on handicap debut worth a try. Nearby won well two weeks ago and there should be a lot more to come. Few of these might need the run and with short priced favorite, the 10/1 on offer represents good EW value. He should be thereabouts even if the fav is too good.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Chepstow 4.10 Tullamore Dew 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Pistolet Noir 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Tullamore Dew was 2nd in the Coral Cup off 4lbs lower. Goes well fresh and won't mind the rain. Yard is on form and Liam Treadwell keeps the ride. Pistolet Noir was disappointing in the 2nd part of last season when moving to Paul Nicholls, but he has always stressed that he'll improve after the summer and I think the trip and softening ground will suit him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Aintree 3.20 Predictive 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Will love the softened ground and boosts some very good form from last year. The 3rd at Kelso was behind 2 good horses and the trip was too short for him. The ground in April at Aintree was too lively for him. Considering he is 4lbs lower today and another 7lb claimed by the talented conditional, I think he can go close here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Towcester 2.00 Red Rouble 1pt win - 4/1 Won well over hurdlers lto and connections waste no time to run him over fences. Bred to be a chaser and could be a class apart from these. The only concern would be the jumping on chasing debut, but I trust the yard and Paddy Brennan is in the saddle.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Wincanton 2.55 Ballyvesey 0.5pt EW - 7/1 SJ win & Betfair SP place Very consistent sort, who has improved for chasing. Tends to run lazily sometimes and visor is applied today. This is a very competitive race and a case can be made for many, but I think my selection has every right to be 4/1 or 5/1 like few of the others. The record of many 2nds and 3rds lies. With the visor and Aiden Coleman in the saddle, I think he can run well today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Towcester 5.25 Kinkeel 1pt EW - 5/1 Pretty modest affair and shrewd Andrew Carroll is coming here with this 11yo back over hurdles. The horse likes it here and the jockey on board is a very competent rider. Might lack the speed these days, so playing safe EW. The race isn't anything special though and I think the selection has a very good chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 2.50 Ballabrook 0.75pt win - 13/2 Restezen Darmor 0.75pt win - 5/1 Badger Foot 0.5pt win - 12/1 Going with 3 against the field in this race. I think the favorite is underpriced and I'm going to oppose it. Ballabrook ran well lto on seasonal reappearance and should step up today. Restezen Darmor is a scopy sort, who travels well and chasing should be his game. Badger Foot ran as if amiss lto, but yard is on fire and I won't be surprised to see him run to his form today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 4.35 Shadrack 0.75pt EW - 9/1 This gray was very progressive last season and had a prep run few weeks ago. He has the scope and should make a fine chaser. Trainer usually schools them for chasing debuts and I'm not surprised they are going straight into handicaps. He should be able to win off this mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 4.00 Garleton 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Handicapped to run well and should come on for the last run. Don't have a great trust in his new yard, but the jockey takes worthy 7lbs off and the conditions today suit. Might need bigger test than flat 3 miles, but the pace here should be strong enough and I expect his stamina to come to the fore.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Haydock 3.25 Gansey 0.5pt EW - 9/1 Won 3 chases last year and comes back over hurdles here. Not a bad hurdler winning 2 novices in 2008 and a good 2nd in a very competitive race for Paul Nicholls. The only slight worry is he might need this, but he is very competitive off this mark and I think he is overpriced.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Stratford 3.20 Balladeer 0.5pt EW - 20/1 The veteran in the race has been running ok in handicap hurdles and his mark is low if he comes to form over the bigger obstacles. Trainer is very good with her chasers and I think the selection is a bit overpriced here. Stays 3 miles well, so further 4f on flat track like Stratford shouldn't be a problem. Aidan Coleman taking the ride is also a positive.