cerh Posted April 25, 2009 Share Posted April 25, 2009 Hi, Have a football betting system which has so far this week since Monday returned 11 wins from 17 bets. wins have been at these odds; 1.20 / 1.29 / 1.20 / 1.95 / 1.57 / 1.07 / 1.67 / 1.90 / 1.85 / 1.37 / 1.70 ( All qualifying bets for the system will have odds of 2.00 or less ) So, quite a good system so far as far as win % goes ( currently at 64.7% ). Problem is, finding the ideal STAKING PLAN. Because of matches occuring at the same time often, and overnight in my case being from NZ, often I have to place bets all at once then wait for results the next morning, so I can't do a bet by bet plan. On set amount win bets ( $10 ), currently it stands at a loss of $2.60 which is so frustrating especially with such a good win %. Anyone have any ideas which could transfer my system into a profitable one?? Regards, cerh new zealand ps. if it's a good plan and works then I'll even share with you my system stategy by email. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie :welcome to PL! It's all about odds vs strike rate. If i get the numbers right you have these stats so far: bets: 11 strike rate: 64.7% avg odds: 1.52 You have far too few bets to make any reliable predictions. Because your odds vary so much (1.07 - 1.95) it will take even longer to establish if your selections are any good compared to the SR. The level staking showing a small loss seems to correlate well with your figures so far though. For comparison, with avg odds of 1.50 you need a SR of 66.6% to get breakeven. If all you have so far is 11 bets, there is no way you can state that you have a "system that works". Why not start a thread in the glory hunters section, so that we can watch your progress? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerh Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie I don't see myself as a 'glory-hunter' at all and I was just stating that it does work as in picking a decent percentage of winners. I just need some staking plan ideas that would enhance the overall win/loss. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie The reason i recommended the GH section is that i was under the impression that you would'nt reveal any details about your system, which is required in S&S. If you can't make a profit with level staking then no staking plan can do that for you, long term. Start with level stakes and when you have a sufficient number of bets and you are in profit, then you can try out different staking plans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Sorry to pop your bubble but any results from 17 bets is totally meaningless. Look at the results after 100+ bets then see where you are at level stakes. Then go with a % of the running bank, to cover multiple matches at the same time, fix the % over a period like a weekend. And without knowing the system no-one can recommend any staking plan that possiibly be better as that would depend entirely on the specifics of the system. P.S. we don't do email, post it or not are the only options. P.P.S. :welcome don't mean to be nasty :lol it's just the way it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerh Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Sorry about that. Ok, here is the system; Football System 1 Investments are on the HOME team. 2 The Odds for the HOME team must be 2.00 or less. 3 The HOME team must be in a BETTER POSITION than the opposition in the appropriate league table. 4 Level stakes win betting. ( At this stage, see how it goes, alternate staking??? ) 5 If at the start of the season, then wait until 6 or 8 games have been played first by each team, before beginning system. Sunday results; -Arsenal ( won ) odds = 1.37 -AC Milan ( won ) odds = 1.47 -Lazio ( lost ) -Athletico Madrid ( still to play soon ) odds = 1.40 So for last week it stands at 13 wins from 20 bets. Average dividend of 1.51 Strike-rate = 65% Level stakes win bets = 20 invested for return of 19.61 ( loss of 0.39 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Sorry, I've been no great shakes so far but if it was this easy we'd all be raking it in. Try looking at specific home form tables and away form tables as these differ drastically. Home and away seems to be two completely different animals. Take Man City this season for example....apart from yesterday:eyes Good luck with it all anyway and :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Take Man City this season for example....apart from yesterday:eyes Yeh mate, was there - tell me about it :sad gutted for Jag's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Yeh mate' date=' was there - tell me about it :sad gutted for Jag's.[/quote'] I laid Man City at 5.2 because.....as if they were ever likely to win:@ Also laid Ankaragucu against Fenerbahce so lucky both were at relative stakes to the odds:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Ouch. Actually come to think of it the ref and linesmen made some shocking decisions, maybe something to include on a system is their performance?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Ouch. Actually come to think of it the ref and linesmen made some shocking decisions' date=' maybe something to include on a system is their performance?!?[/quote'] Not so sure that's as easy to quantify but in the long run I think it will even out. Good teams avoid losing in spite of poor ref performances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Not so sure that's as easy to quantify but in the long run I think it will even out. Good teams avoid losing in spite of poor ref performances. Possibly, but from experience, top 3 and Liverpool always seem to get the ref's "advantage" ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerh Posted April 27, 2009 Author Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Thanks all for your words and help, keep it coming :) Last result from this morning ( NZ Time ). -Athletico Madrid ( won ) odds = 1.40 Now it's 14 wins from 21 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerh Posted April 27, 2009 Author Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Football System that works but needs advcie Monday = no bets Only Champions League & UEFA Cup semi-finals on market here. Probably will be Barcelona, Manchester United, Dynamo Kiev, and Werder Bremen at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.