Subzero Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Hello all, A few years ago i followed a punter who posted on another forum. He selected matches and bet under 3.5 goals in a progressive system which in the beginning worked very well. I have done some testing last few months and i think the system is worth another try. Rules: - All bets with betfair - Starting bank 100 points - minimum odds: depending on the league but never lower as 1.25 - Bet is always 50% of the bank - only league matches Stats needed: Home team minimum 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Home team minimum 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Same counts for away team but obviously the away stats count. Head-to head stats also included. First selection: Germany 2nd Bundesliga: FURTH V AUGSBURG Furth has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Furth has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Augsburg has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Augsburg has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Last 5 head-to-head matches: 4/5 unders including a 1-1 draw earlier this season. Stake: 50 points Odds: 1.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 hello, 50 % it's so big is n't it ? GL ! and good continuation for your topic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 2-1 FT Bet Won New Bank 124.70 pts Let's go a few kilometers south to Austria where today's 2nd match take place. RIED V SALZBURG Ried has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Ried has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Salzburg has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Salzburg has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches These teams have already played each other 3 times this season, 2/3 finished under. More interesting, headsup these teams are 14/15 unders in the last 3 seasons. Stake:62 points Odds: 1.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Now with 15 minutes played i see that only a part of my bet was matched. Since the score is already 1-0 i let this 1 go. So the actual bet is: Stake: 13.24 points Odds 1.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Ried - Salzburg 3-0 FT Bet Won (again, too bad i noticed too late my bet was only partially matched) New Bank 130.36 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Now we travel east for a match in Russia's premier league. Only 5 matches played so far, but i have found a match with great stats. KAZAN V SPARTAK Kazan has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Kazan has 5/5 unders in last 5 total matches Spartak has 1/2 unders in last 2 away matches Spartak has 4/5 unders in last 5 total matches Headsup: last 6 seasons 11/12 unders Stake: 65 points Odds: 1.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 0-2 FT Bet Won New Bank 147.65 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 For the final bet of this weekend, we go to Italy for this evening's match in Naples. NAPOLI V INTER Napoli has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Napoli has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Inter has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Inter has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup these teams are 3/3 unders in the last 2 seasons. Stake: 73 points Odds: 1.31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 1-0 FT Bet Won New Bank 169.15 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Nice results so far, Subzero. Are there any leagues which you concentrate on or leagues which you tend to avoid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted April 27, 2009 Author Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Nice results so far, Subzero. Are there any leagues which you concentrate on or leagues which you tend to avoid? No not any league in particular, of course the best leagues are France, Portugal and Greece because the fewest goals are scored there but odds are so low there(almost never higher as 1.20) it's just not worth it. Besides, not every match has a under/over 3.5 market on betfair so you really have to search a lot to find a match to bet on. Last of all, we're going to the end of the season in most european leagues so you really have to be careful, this is the time of the season really strange results come in. And about he results: just 3 bets placed where i was a favourite to win the bet, so it's really to early to jump into conclusions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 1, 2009 Author Share Posted May 1, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Today we go to Poland for a match in the polish Ekstraklassa. This 1 has the ideal stats for this strategy. BELCHATOW V BYTOM Belchatow has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Belchatow has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Bytom has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Bytom has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup: last 2 seasons 3/3 unders Stake: 84 points Odds: 1.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 1, 2009 Author Share Posted May 1, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Perfect stats, not a perfect result :\ 3-1 Bet Lost New Bank: 85.15 pts Next match in Ireland: BOHEMIANS v DUNDALK Bohemians has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Bohemians has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Dundalk 2/3 unders in last 3 away matches Dundalk has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches These teams are 1/1 unders this season Stake: 42 pts Odds: 1.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 1, 2009 Author Share Posted May 1, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 Thank you Mr. Byrne http://www.flashscore.com/detail/soccer.php?match=147830&gmt_offset=-7200&tab=1&detail_refresh=1&category=0 New Bank: 43.15 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 2, 2009 Author Share Posted May 2, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 After 2 dissapointments yesterday, we try to recover. It will take a lot winning bets in a row to get anywhere near the starting bank of 100 points but i give it a shot. The next match is a more risky bet, and for that we go to Norway. AALESUNDS v MOLDE Aalesunds has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Aalesunds has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Molde 2/3 unders in last 3 away matches Molde has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup these teams were 2/2 unders last season. Stake: 21 points Odds: 1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 0-2 Bet Won New Bank: 53.12 pts Now we go back to Russia for this match: SAMARA v CSKA MOSCOW Samara has 2/2 unders in last 2 home matches Samara has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches CSKA Moscow 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches CSKA Moscow has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup, these teams are 19/22 unders last 11 seasons. Stake: 26 points Odds: 1.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 1-3...last goal in '90 The End. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHUPUNTER Posted May 5, 2009 Share Posted May 5, 2009 Re: Under 3.5 I think the problem are the odds are too low and you were staking half the bank on each bet, its the road to ruin in my opinion. But not a bad idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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