Deviation Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 I tested a laying system with minimal level stakes, then upped the amount and a short but harsh losing run occurred, dropping the bank by about 33%. It's been recovering well since and is now about 14% down. The system shows 99% statistical significance when backtested against live prices, and has been performing to expectations since bet placement started. Can I increase the stake now, do I wait until it breaks even, or should I wait until the expected profit level is reached? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system My first thought when i saw the thread title was "Oh no, another Martingale..." :) I think you would get a good answer if you provide us with more info regarding the system. What is the average lay odds? What percentage of the bank was you initial liability? How much did you up the stake? After the losing run, did you lessen the stake? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system Sorry for the delay in replying, the losing streak has continued and I've been checking everything's o.k. Right, here are the figures and steps I've taken: strike rate: 0.835 avg odds: 4.65 avg win odds: 4.42 profit: 67.7 bets: 346 yield: 0.196 116 days backtesting with live prices strike rate: 0.857 avg odds: 4.66 avg win odds: 5.05 profit: 4.1 bets: 21 yield: 0.193 5 days bets placed, fixed stake of £0.20 strike rate: 0.765 avg odds: 5.08 avg win odds: 5.31 profit: -10.4 bets: 34 yield: -0.306 7 days bets placed, fixed stake of £10.00 - I'm still running the system at £10 stakes - The figures are after 5% Betfair commission has been deducted - My bank size is 28 units for a 1% chance of going broke in a year. At what point can I increase the stakes again? Should I wait until I'm back in profit with £10 stakes, or can I do it before that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system Only going on logic here but I seriously wouldn't increase stakes again while running in the red. I personally like the idea of increasing stake as a percentage but on a losing day keeping things the same up to a cutoff loss point. Called a ratchet I believe and history has shown it to be very profitable when coupled with a good system. Now if only I could get to the point where I had something worth building on:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system I failed to mention that my stake size should be £90 for my initial bankroll. Given that, do I have to wait until I'm back in profit with £10 stakes, or can I increase the stake before that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system *bump* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system You're not getting any replies because it's not the kind of question someone else can answer for you. The fact you don't know what to do in itself leads me to say to keep the stakes small until you yourself are confident enough to increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system I don't think I'm getting my point across properly. The backtesting shows 99% statistical significance against live prices, and live testing matches closely to backtested results. So I have every confidence in it, but a phased approach seems the obvious thing to do. Is there a general consensus to the following: if I have every confidence in using more of the allocated bankroll, can it be done during a losing streak? When the variance starts to even itself out won't the higher stake cancel out the losing run more quickly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what your asking (I in a fancy way :loon) is this - can I increase stakes during a losing run as I'm due a winner ? Well the simple answer is yes you can, there are a number of loss recovery staking plans out there - but I wouldn't personally - on the basis that no staking plan will turn a long term level stakes loss into a profit. Your much better off working out the strike rate of the system, the average odds taken and then calculating a worst case losing run. From this you can work out the bank you need and then the % of the bank as a stake amount. Losing runs are all part of the game - the worst thing you can do is panic, if you're confident in the system just ride the storm out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system I have a bankroll of £2,500 to use on this, divided into 28 units for a 1% chance of going broke in a year. This gives a stake size of £90. I started with a stake of £0.20 for 21 bets, and then increased it to £10 for 34 bets, as mentioned earlier. If the system is performing correctly, albeit a losing run, can I increase the stake to £20 or £30 now and wait for the results to balance themselves out? Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system Ok your going to have to help me here .... firstly are you backing or laying ? ... are the table of figures you posted earlier the furthest you can/have backtested? I'm confused by a number of things the division of 28 into £90 seperate banks ? Why you would increased stakes from 20p upto a comparatively huge £10 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system You seem very confident in your system and testing. I do think that wanting to increase stakes whilst in a downswing smacks of chasing your losses. Personally I wouldn't consider increasing stakes until my bankroll warranted it and in times of a downswing I would look to decrease my stakes if I was in risk of going bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviation Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system Ok your going to have to help me here .... firstly are you backing or laying ? laying are the table of figures you posted earlier the furthest you can/have backtested? I can pay for more live prices if necessary, but the backtesting is 99% statistically significant. Plus I'm still running the system with £10 stakes and it has been coming back up again. Everything is working as expected to date. I'm confused by a number of things the division of 28 into £90 seperate banks ? No, I have a bankroll of £2,500 to invest in the system. Using a stake size of 3.57% of the bank means it should go bust once every 100 years. So the bank is 28 units of £90. Why you would increased stakes from 20p upto a comparatively huge £10 ? I do think that wanting to increase stakes whilst in a downswing smacks of chasing your losses. - The backtesting was with recorded live prices - I then actually placed real bets of £0.20 to make sure everything worked the same in a live environment, but only for 21 bets - I then upped the stake to £10 and again waited to see if any problems surfaced from the live environment, e.g. will the only bets that get matched be for high odds for some strange reason. That went o.k. - Ultimately I need to be putting £90 a bet on. What I am doing is increasing the stake as my confidence in the live environment builds. What I was originally trying to get at is this: If I am going to increase my stake over time to say £20, then £40, then £60, and then finally £90, do I have to wait until I am in profit each time before I do it? This is going to delay things. If the selections generate a yield of 19% in the longer term, the larger stake will make up for the losing run eventually, won't it? Please note I am not trying to chase losses, but merely invest the full £2,500 bankroll into this system as soon as it is safe to do so. How would you guys have approached this? Would you test it with real bets of £0.20 for a much longer period, and then jump straight to £90 stakes? But what about Betfair liquidity? I don't know what impact partially matched bets will have, so how can I do that? Sorry for the bad explanations. I need a holiday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Increasing stakes on a system OK thanks that's a bit clearer - firstly with laying you need to be looking at the Liability e.g the amount you are risking with your bet, so a stake of £10 @ 10.0 decimal on betfair = a liability of £90. With stakes of £20 @ 5.5 betfair = £90 and 1% liability of bank. With laying you need a lot more data than backing to fully test a profitable system - Ideally you need a full seasons worth of bets. As far as liquidity - have you looked at the matched figure as the top of the betfair market? .... the higher the better and markets obviously vary .... have you considered laying at betfair s.p as your stake is guaranteed to be matched at the price ? I would suggest that you start with an amount that's comfortable and see it through - but with the amount of data you have I would suggest playing it safe while you gather extra data. There is no right or wrong time to start a system as it's the longterm returns that are important but you need to allow for the losing runs that will happen. Hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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