The Lincoln/Spring Mile 28th March 2009

[billy the punter]

Hope it's not too early for the actual Lincoln thread? The 5-day decs are tomorrow after all. Very hard to have strong opinions at the moment due to the cut and the draw. Lowest rated... 2008 94 2007 88 (not Donny) 2006 88 (not Donny) 2005 90 2004 90 2003 89 2002 83 2001 85 2000 84 1999 77 1998 82 Ten year trends are misleading when estimating who will make the cut as the Lincoln, and all other big handicaps, have changed in recent years. They are now contested by better horses and the every year it takes a higher rating to make the cut. For the same reason "weight trends" should be treated with caution. That said there are currently only 25 horses still entered that are rated 94 or above. The cut should be at a lower rating this year than it was in 2008. Although money is returned if you back a horse "ballotted out", to save time I would suggest ignoring anything rated under 90. Over 30 are rated 92+. The fancied horses are rated... Expresso Star 97 - safe Charm School 96 - safe Swop 100 - safe Fireside 92 - close Huzzah 98 - safe Flipando 93 - close/safe Mangham 94 - safe/close Don't Panic 104 - safe Zaahid 96 - safe Extraterrestial 92 - close Decameron 85 - very unlikely Spectait 87 - unlikely Titan Triumph 91 - close Manassass 92 - close Slugger O'Toole 94 - safe/close Mias Boy 102 - safe I concentrated on the Spring Mile last year (I did ok on the race ;)), because I thought it was the better race - most of the Lincoln fancies missed the cut and ran in the consolation. The top weight was as high as 94 and I said at the time that the first few home would've been the first few home in the Lincoln had they been allowed to run. Seeing as Don't Panic, Benandonner, Zaahid, Regal Parade, and Plum Pudding were all in the first 7 home I think that opinion may've been correct. When looking at the race I used the draw to narrow the field.

As stated by bowles the last eight running here have seen winners drawn 1,19,10,1,3,4,19,8.

Going further, if I assign a third of each field to either 'low', 'middle' or 'high' drawn over those eight runnings, 83% of horse finishing in the first five were drawn 'low' or 'high'. The percentage call is obviously to go with those drawn high or low.

Last year's first five home were drawn 17, 1, 2, 21, 4 - continuing the 'high' or 'low' trend. Over the past nine runnings at Doncaster 84% (38/45) of the horses in the first five home were drawn 'high' or 'low'. It's slightly different with the Lincoln itself. When looking at the first five home 53% were low, 31% were middle and 16% were high. Winners - 56% were low, 22% middle and 22% high. Although less strong a trend when looking at placed horses, it does still pay to be drawn low and when looking for the winner the "high/lows" still account for 78% of winners (7/9). Last year's winner Smokey Oakey was able to tack accross to the near (high) rail due to the lack of early pace - he had time to adjust without losing too much ground. Also as he won a group race after there is an argument a cut above the field. The same can be said about Stream Of Gold (the other middle drawn winner), that horse looked extremely well treated when taking this. So it's possible to win the Lincoln drawn middle if depending on... a) a great ride early doors b) a slow early pace allowing for maneuvers c) the horse being different class I think last year's was a little from b) and a little from c). Obviously in the Lincoln, due to the higher quality, it is possible there is a future pattern horse in the field, and if that is the case, that horse can win from most draws. This is less likely in the Spring Mile and the field would normally be more closely handicapped, allowing for the draw to play it's part and make the difference. I've got a short list already but will be waiting until Friday before finalising, especially for the Spring Mile. Be lucky. :ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: The Lincoln/Spring Mile 28th March 2009

Hope it's not too early for the actual Lincoln thread? The 5-day decs are tomorrow after all. Very hard to have strong opinions at the moment due to the cut and the draw. Lowest rated... 2008 94 2007 88 (not Donny) 2006 88 (not Donny) 2005 90 2004 90 2003 89 2002 83 2001 85 2000 84 1999 77 1998 82 Ten year trends are misleading when estimating who will make the cut as the Lincoln, and all other big handicaps, have changed in recent years. They are now contested by better horses and the every year it takes a higher rating to make the cut. For the same reason "weight trends" should be treated with caution. That said there are currently only 25 horses still entered that are rated 94 or above. The cut should be at a lower rating this year than it was in 2008. Although money is returned if you back a horse "ballotted out", to save time I would suggest ignoring anything rated under 90. Over 30 are rated 92+. The fancied horses are rated... Expresso Star 97 - safe Charm School 96 - safe Swop 100 - safe Fireside 92 - close Huzzah 98 - safe Flipando 93 - close/safe Mangham 94 - safe/close Don't Panic 104 - safe Zaahid 96 - safe Extraterrestial 92 - close Decameron 85 - very unlikely Spectait 87 - unlikely Titan Triumph 91 - close Manassass 92 - close Slugger O'Toole 94 - safe/close Mias Boy 102 - safe I concentrated on the Spring Mile last year (I did ok on the race ;)), because I thought it was the better race - most of the Lincoln fancies missed the cut and ran in the consolation. The top weight was as high as 94 and I said at the time that the first few home would've been the first few home in the Lincoln had they been allowed to run. Seeing as Don't Panic, Benandonner, Zaahid, Regal Parade, and Plum Pudding were all in the first 7 home I think that opinion may've been correct. When looking at the race I used the draw to narrow the field. Last year's first five home were drawn 17, 1, 2, 21, 4 - continuing the 'high' or 'low' trend. Over the past nine runnings at Doncaster 84% (38/45) of the horses in the first five home were drawn 'high' or 'low'. It's slightly different with the Lincoln itself. When looking at the first five home 53% were low, 31% were middle and 16% were high. Winners - 56% were low, 22% middle and 22% high. Although less strong a trend when looking at placed horses, it does still pay to be drawn low and when looking for the winner the "high/lows" still account for 78% of winners (7/9). Last year's winner Smokey Oakey was able to tack accross to the near (high) rail due to the lack of early pace - he had time to adjust without losing too much ground. Also as he won a group race after there is an argument a cut above the field. The same can be said about Stream Of Gold (the other middle drawn winner), that horse looked extremely well treated when taking this. So it's possible to win the Lincoln drawn middle if depending on... a) a great ride early doors b) a slow early pace allowing for maneuvers c) the horse being different class I think last year's was a little from b) and a little from c). Obviously in the Lincoln, due to the higher quality, it is possible there is a future pattern horse in the field, and if that is the case, that horse can win from most draws. This is less likely in the Spring Mile and the field would normally be more closely handicapped, allowing for the draw to play it's part and make the difference. I've got a short list already but will be waiting until Friday before finalising, especially for the Spring Mile. Be lucky. :ok

good write up mate. one question. Will your job allow you to tip up this race?