Trotter Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Beginning to think about what kind of races to follow during the flat season, but I'm struggling............ Last season I had a go at sprint handicaps for a couple of months, but I gave that up as there were far too many of them to keep a handle on the form. I managed to go through the whole season with Group One Races and 2YO group races..........that was very interesting and added a lot to my enjoyment of the sport - having a fairly in depth knowledge of the top class performers. But it was a lot of work and very time consuming because I ended up making notes on all the races and horses in the UK, ireland, France.............I was spending all my time keeping my notes up to date rather than trying to pick winners of future races........:cry I think I might not bother to follow anything in particular this year, just pick random races to look at and look at each race fresh, without the baggage of getting bogged down in pages of notes about past performances. Does anyone recognise this as a problem ?.............or is it just me ? Are you going to 'specialise' for the Flat season ?........if so, what on and why ? Any ideas would be appreciated..............:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? really want to folllow horses in such a way that i know why i am backing a certain horse i.e much like Billy does which is to note a horses performance & then follow it until it wins or dismiss it if it fails again. I am a stickler for course form yet again & will want to include this. I dont like certain tracks so may be more selective, also the type of event i back in, ie no sellers or low class races. will be starting soon, however i find it more difficult to recall Horses on the flat than i do over the jumps for some reason? I cant even think of 10 decent animals off the top of my head & cant recall a number of the Royal Ascot winners - strange! In summary, there will be a reason for every bet i have this season ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Usual for me....all age handicaps with at least 8 runners:ok Can't wait to get stuck in, using all the important factors such as draw, pace, course, etc, etc. Roll on the weekend:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Must try and be more selective with (or ignore 90%) Class 5/6 handicaps - these are poor events so you must be sure you are not backing a complete crab and have over rated their previous performances. I love most claimers and sellers though (esp on the dirt), although they seem poor quality the better horses are usually class 4 handicap class (sometimes better) - class 5/6 handicaps are so bad these days that they are much worse than claimers and sellers with regards to class. Will tread very carefully at Yarmouth, York and Chepstow - what I lost at the first two of those in 2008 was frightening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Wolverhampton is the place if your after long odds winners. I've had many good winners there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Nad Al Sheba is the best place in the world for rags surely? I've played 25/1 and over there (backing every one) for a bit of fun a few times this year and I'm well in front. Classy judgement at it's best. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Nad Al Sheba is the best place in the world for rags surely? I've played 25/1 and over there (backing every one) for a bit of fun a few times this year and I'm well in front. Classy judgement at it's best. :lol Nah, its all they arabs putting their oil fields on donkeys and pushing out good things :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? I was planning on specialising in nursery handicaps but I dug out my raceform annual last night and the results were not what I wanted to see. I wanted to see horses from the head of the handicap faring best, with many of the runners having recent placed form to their name. But what I saw was horses winning from all over the handicap, some with terrible form figures and I've given up studying them now. Sprint handicaps seem to be won by those from the head of the betting so knowledge of that, together with draw biases (Hopefully Cassius will be back?) is one possible route I'm looking at. The other is looking 10f+ handicaps. I've not had chance to explore this in any depth but my gut instinct is that class will tell best in races over these longer distances and because the draw plays no part over such trips the form may work out more as you'd expect? Either way I'm concentrating on class 2 -4 handicaps too this year as those were the classes that brought in the most money last year. I don't have any courses I am avoiding although there are several trainers are jockeys I will be ducking no matter who the horse is. I'm also giving up on each-way betting this year and dutching in most of the races I play in. I'd rather throw two or more darts at the bullseye in the hope of hitting the target rather than banking solely on one runner, which ends up hitting a wall of runners, or struggles to handle the going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Fin..........here's a good article about Nurseries http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/07_001_1_2006_Nursery_Topweights.html It's an analysis of the 2006 season, but I guess the principles apply every season............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? I'll be concentrating on races 1m+, preferably 1m2f and 1m4f from Listed class and above but will be trying to watch all maiden races to spot horses that have the potential to be top class. The draw does not have as much significance over 1m4f compared to a 5f sprint and there are less hard luck stories. I will be avoiding hold up horses at Ponty and York in all races. I think if you select a certain race distance you see the same horses repeatedly racing each other and have your own opinion of what is the best horse for the selected conditions etc. In group races off level weights I am trying to find the best horse at the right price. I'm trying to decide if to go to Donny at the weekend for the races or go watch City get beat by Chester. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Will concentrate mainly on the higher class and group races which will be at the weekend or during the summer festivals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Going to spend the remainder of the week (until sat), to think of exact criteria behind each and every bet Ill have this flat season. Im a jumps man, and never really get into the flat for some reason, but Im looking to change that this season. Atm, Im thinking of backing the following. Horses that either won or placed LTO and are rated up to a maximum of 5lb higher than that run Horses that have win or place form over c&d, regardless of it being LTO Horses that won their maiden at the first time of asking : may follow these for 2/3 runs afterwards to see how they progress. Horses that have dropped 2 or more class levels from their last run. Lot of things to consider, but I reckon the c&d one is standing out to me atm, particularly c. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcosgrove Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? I'll be following 3yo Maidens / Handicaps. Made good profit last season watching them closely, especially the maidens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Fin..........here's a good article about Nurseries http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/07_001_1_2006_Nursery_Topweights.html It's an analysis of the 2006 season, but I guess the principles apply every season............ thanks for that, an excellent read. That is a superb site, I'm going to spend a bit more time on there reading around when get chance. It is interesting how things go tits up in class 6 races. That probably explains why my results showed winners from all over the handicap (I made no class distinction), although it has to be said I did only have a quick glance over some 2007 results and didn't go half as indepth as he did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Same as last season , All- Aged Listed and Group races with the odd Classic thrown in :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? For the past few years I've thought about following a stable .... though I've never done it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete10 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Certain trainers are worth following in certain months . Mark Prescott in July is one that springs to mind . Good money can be made with a little, Research . Luca Cumani over the last five years has a 33% SR in September , So it is well worth keeping a eye to them shrewd trainers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devil tish Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? sprint handicaps for me:ok i just love em...i will be following dandy at goodwood, and as mowgli says avoiding hold up horses at york. high draws at beverley on good/firm are a good sourse of income as well. i like to research why horses have put in a bad run when fancied, and follow them up nto if the run can be discounted. an excellent search page at the bha website can be found here... http://www.bha.org/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/disciplinary/whyranbadly.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? Same as last season ' date=' All- Aged Listed and Group races with the odd Classic thrown in :D[/quote'] I'm tempted by that as well..........:tongue2 The trouble with the general 'group races' is that you get a lot of very lightly raced 2 and 3 year olds with not much form but lots of hype. Concentrating on older horses sounds like a good idea as you usually have a couple of years of form in the book. I've downloaded the BHA 'Race Pattern Book' for 2009 which gives the race conditions for all group and Listed races.......I reckon it could give an edge to study the penalty conditions for Listed races to see wether certain runners are disadvantaged by the race conditions..........:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? thanks for that' date=' an excellent read. That is a superb site, I'm going to spend a bit more time on there reading around when get chance. It is interesting how things go tits up in class 6 races. That probably explains why my results showed winners from all over the handicap (I made no class distinction), although it has to be said I did only have a quick glance over some 2007 results and didn't go half as indepth as he did.[/quote'] One good thing about the Nurseries is that they don't start for 3 months............:tongue2 So.......could be a good fallback if you're getting bored with your early season speciality.........I usually reckon 3 months is long enough before you need a change of scenery........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? follow the draw at Sandown over 5f & 7f The 5f changes with the ground & still cant beleive you can get a 10/1 + winner with the best draw! The 7f draw also counts as the bend comes up quick & its a long way round for those on the outside will be sticking to certain courses & relying on one of the timeform books for the early season horses Stoute in May is another good % SR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 30, 2009 Author Share Posted March 30, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? I've decided that I'm gonna concentrate on the top handicaps........the Heritage Handicaps...........I've made a list and there's about 65-70 of them through the season, which will average out at a couple of races a week.............although they do tend to come in bunches at the main meetings, there's usually one on a saturday Only trouble is...........having done the Lincoln, the next one isn't for 3 weeks..............:loon Grrrrrrrrrrr this false start to the Flat season............:@ In 3 weeks time I'll probably have changed my mind............:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 Re: Flat Season - what to do ? yeah, its so annoying, they lure us in with some decent races at Donny, then give us a day off and then follow it up with a race full over class 5/6 races at Folk tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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