Lack of draws methodology

[Monty Hall]

Lack of draws A system based on consistency of results - Lack of draws by TuttiFooty.Com

I'm not much for system and I'd like to think of this more as a methodology (two actually). This system is neither easy nor simple but it can increase success rates and yield a great deal. I found Lack of draws consistency to be much more profitable since I am betting on either home or away wins. I don't claim this is any easier than a normal bet but the odds we go for are mostly quite higher and if we only win 50% we still profit. I am not able to calculate how the success probability percentage increases the same way I cannot explain the 'Monty Hall Problem'. In the 'Monty Hall' show the guest needs to guess behind which door the car is. He faces 3 doors behind them are 2 goats and a car. So we say the probability is split 33% for each door. Once the guest chooses a door (not open yet) the host opens a different door that hides goat. You and me would think that the probability is now 50% for each door. But the 'Monty Hall Problem' says that the probability is still 33% for the original door the guest chose. Yet if he now switches to the remaining door he increases his chances by 33% e.g. he now has 66% probability to win the car. If you understand that then maybe you can calculate the 'Lack of draws' methodology. In general I think of 3 different systems or mythologies of picking bets. 1- Intuition based Used with teams you watch every week, Cup ties, Uefa etc. 2- Stats or logic based Consistencies, H2h 3- Based on illogical and colloquial reasoning Such as the 'Unwritten rules' Here I'm referring to a stats based methodology. When we think about consistency logic we usually think about teams that are consistent at home or in their current form. Lack of draws consistency searches for teams that rarely draw, teams that tend to either lose or win at home or away (or both). Once we've identified those teams we make a list of their matches. The hard part now begins of choosing the winner. This system makes the assumption that the end result is either home or away wins. There are 2 disadvantages to that: 1- The game may actually result in a draw such as In a derby game or against a draw specialist. 2- We may pick the wrong team. In order to overcome these difficulties we have to recognize those teams that rarely draw and bet on them not to while keeping in mind they will draw a few times out of 19 games per season. Once we have a list of matches we then go though the procedure of looking at the stats with the advantage of only picking one of two options: Home or Away. We have to consider the impossible when reviewing the data. Away wins can have very high odds. I have made a list for the 14-16 of March, 2009 - You can review TuttiFooty.Com Consistency tables here Day Home (Draws/Games) Away (Draws/Games) 1 x 2 Premier League Saturday Man United(1/13) Liverpool(4/14) 1.9 3.3 4.1 Monday West Ham(1/14) West Brom(2/14) 1.7 3.4 4.8 La Liga Sunday Sporting Gijon(0/12) La Coruña(3/13) 2.7 3.1 2.5 Sunday Atlético Madrid(1/12) Villarreal(6/13) 2.1 3.3 3.4 Sunday Santander(7/12) Numancia(0/13) 1.8 3.3 4.5 Sunday Almería(4/13) Barcelona(1/12) 5 3.5 1.7 Sunday Espanyol(4/12) Mallorca(1/13) 2.2 3.2 3.2 Sunday Athletic Bilbao(2/13) Real Madrid(1/12s) 3.8 3.3 1.9 Bundeliga Friday Wolfsburg(1/11) Schalke(4/12) 2.1 3.2 3.3 Saturday Karlsruher(1/11) Bielefeld(6/12) 2.2 3.2 3.1 Sunday Hamburg(1/11) Cottbus(4/12) 1.4 4 7.9 Serie A Sunday Palermo(0/13) Lecce(4/13) 1.7 3.3 4.7 Sunday Atalanta(1/14) Torino(6/13) 2.1 3.1 3.5 Once we have a list we have to look up the league tables, scoring, conceding, h2h records, videos previews and latest news for each match. Quickly going through it there are a few favorites that pop into view: Man United and West Ham in the Premier League. La Coruña, Barcelona and Real Madrid from La Liga. Hamburg, Wolfsburg vs Schalke - General manager Andreas Mueller fired from Schalke so an away win might be a good bet in the Bundesliga. Palermo and Atalanta in the Serie A. Now, since the Man U - Pool will be a high profile game with title rivalry involved, the probability of a draw increases. So I'll start with the West Ham vs West Brom game. 1st thing I do is look at the league table: Pos. Team Pld Pts W D L GF GA Dif Overall 7 West Ham 28 39 11 6 11 34 34 0 20 West Bromwich 28 22 6 4 18 25 54 -29 Home 9 West Ham 14 22 7 1 6 19 17 2 17 West Bromwich 14 17 5 2 7 19 27 -8 Away 8 West Ham 14 17 4 5 5 15 17 -2 19 West Bromwich 14 5 1 2 11 6 27 -21 From the league table its clear W. Broms' chances for survival are slim yet not impossible. They have the 2nd worst away defense and attack in the league. W.Ham seems a typical mid table. 2nd look at the consistency tables Team Gms Sc Cn Gd GF GA Over Home West Ham 14 9 11 1 19 17 7 West Bromwich 14 11 11 2 19 27 11 Away West Ham 14 9 10 5 15 17 6 West Bromwich 14 5 12 2 6 27 7 Here we can see W. Ham not as consistent at home as we might have wished while W. Broms' has been conceding consistently with only 2 clean sheets Key Gms = Games Played Sc = Games scores (at least once) Cn = Games conceded (at least once) Gd = Number of draws Gf = Amount of goals scored Ga = Amount of goals conceded Over = Number of overs 3rd. Lets look at where those clean sheets occurred. Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier Arsenal 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier Bolton 0:0 West Bromwich Sat Sep 27 08 English Premier Middlesbrough 0:1 West Bromwich Sat Oct 18 08 English Premier Manchester United 4:0 West Bromwich Tue Oct 28 08 English Premier Newcastle 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier Liverpool 3:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 22 08 English Premier Stoke 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 29 08 English Premier Wigan 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Dec 13 08 English Premier Sunderland 4:0 West Bromwich Fri Dec 26 08 English Premier Chelsea 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Jan 10 09 English Premier Aston Villa 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Jan 31 09 English Premier Hull 2:2 West Bromwich Sun Feb 22 09 English Premier Fulham 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Feb 28 09 English Premier Everton 2:0 West Bromwich Both occurred at the beginning of the season, this bet is beginning to look good with no goals in the last 2 games. Lets look at W. Hams' matches: Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Wigan Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier West Ham 4:1 Blackburn Sat Sep 20 08 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Newcastle Sun Oct 5 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Bolton Sun Oct 26 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Arsenal Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Everton Sat Nov 15 08 English Premier West Ham 0:0 Portsmouth Mon Dec 8 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Tottenham Sat Dec 20 08 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Aston Villa Sun Dec 28 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Stoke Sun Jan 18 09 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Fulham Wed Jan 28 09 English Premier West Ham 2:0 Hull Sun Feb 8 09 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Manchester United Sun Mar 1 09 English Premier West Ham 1:0 Manchester City The results are not spectacular but looking at the opponents this looks like it could be a good bet. 4th the H2H: 08 Sep 13 English Premier West Bromwich 3:2 West Ham 0 0 0 06 May 1 English Premier West Bromwich 0:1 West Ham 2.25 3.29 2.89 05 Nov 5 English Premier West Ham 1:0 West Bromwich 1.83 3.29 4.33 03 Feb 23 English Premier West Bromwich 1:2 West Ham 2.39 3.2 2.7 02 Sep 11 English Premier West Ham 0:1 West Bromwich 1.6 3.45 5.5 Not a draw in sight. 5th and final step is checking the Video Previews of both teams last matches and go through the news. Once I've reached my conclusion I rift through the forums to see other punters views but not before I have done my own work. I am a bit worried mainly because of W.Hams' scoring and conceding are not as strong as I wish them to be, but there absolutely no indication to me that W. Ham would not win it even without Cole. So I pick Home win. Not that impressive maybe but it serves as an example. I will pick some more games to show the strength of this system. And now on to the next game..

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology I'll assume you got permission to mention your website, but to put it in a tread title is just taking the piss, nobody does that. As to all references above i can see they are relevant to the subject of the thread, so are you going to run this system here ? By that i mean post selections for a reasonable period of time, keeping track the system's performance ? Or is this just one of those 3 to 5 post threads ?