Lack of draws methodology

[Monty Hall]

Lack of draws A system based on consistency of results - Lack of draws by TuttiFooty.Com

I'm not much for system and I'd like to think of this more as a methodology (two actually). This system is neither easy nor simple but it can increase success rates and yield a great deal. I found Lack of draws consistency to be much more profitable since I am betting on either home or away wins. I don't claim this is any easier than a normal bet but the odds we go for are mostly quite higher and if we only win 50% we still profit. I am not able to calculate how the success probability percentage increases the same way I cannot explain the 'Monty Hall Problem'. In the 'Monty Hall' show the guest needs to guess behind which door the car is. He faces 3 doors behind them are 2 goats and a car. So we say the probability is split 33% for each door. Once the guest chooses a door (not open yet) the host opens a different door that hides goat. You and me would think that the probability is now 50% for each door. But the 'Monty Hall Problem' says that the probability is still 33% for the original door the guest chose. Yet if he now switches to the remaining door he increases his chances by 33% e.g. he now has 66% probability to win the car. If you understand that then maybe you can calculate the 'Lack of draws' methodology. In general I think of 3 different systems or mythologies of picking bets. 1- Intuition based Used with teams you watch every week, Cup ties, Uefa etc. 2- Stats or logic based Consistencies, H2h 3- Based on illogical and colloquial reasoning Such as the 'Unwritten rules' Here I'm referring to a stats based methodology. When we think about consistency logic we usually think about teams that are consistent at home or in their current form. Lack of draws consistency searches for teams that rarely draw, teams that tend to either lose or win at home or away (or both). Once we've identified those teams we make a list of their matches. The hard part now begins of choosing the winner. This system makes the assumption that the end result is either home or away wins. There are 2 disadvantages to that: 1- The game may actually result in a draw such as In a derby game or against a draw specialist. 2- We may pick the wrong team. In order to overcome these difficulties we have to recognize those teams that rarely draw and bet on them not to while keeping in mind they will draw a few times out of 19 games per season. Once we have a list of matches we then go though the procedure of looking at the stats with the advantage of only picking one of two options: Home or Away. We have to consider the impossible when reviewing the data. Away wins can have very high odds. I have made a list for the 14-16 of March, 2009 - You can review TuttiFooty.Com Consistency tables here Day Home (Draws/Games) Away (Draws/Games) 1 x 2 Premier League Saturday Man United(1/13) Liverpool(4/14) 1.9 3.3 4.1 Monday West Ham(1/14) West Brom(2/14) 1.7 3.4 4.8 La Liga Sunday Sporting Gijon(0/12) La Coruña(3/13) 2.7 3.1 2.5 Sunday Atlético Madrid(1/12) Villarreal(6/13) 2.1 3.3 3.4 Sunday Santander(7/12) Numancia(0/13) 1.8 3.3 4.5 Sunday Almería(4/13) Barcelona(1/12) 5 3.5 1.7 Sunday Espanyol(4/12) Mallorca(1/13) 2.2 3.2 3.2 Sunday Athletic Bilbao(2/13) Real Madrid(1/12s) 3.8 3.3 1.9 Bundeliga Friday Wolfsburg(1/11) Schalke(4/12) 2.1 3.2 3.3 Saturday Karlsruher(1/11) Bielefeld(6/12) 2.2 3.2 3.1 Sunday Hamburg(1/11) Cottbus(4/12) 1.4 4 7.9 Serie A Sunday Palermo(0/13) Lecce(4/13) 1.7 3.3 4.7 Sunday Atalanta(1/14) Torino(6/13) 2.1 3.1 3.5 Once we have a list we have to look up the league tables, scoring, conceding, h2h records, videos previews and latest news for each match. Quickly going through it there are a few favorites that pop into view: Man United and West Ham in the Premier League. La Coruña, Barcelona and Real Madrid from La Liga. Hamburg, Wolfsburg vs Schalke - General manager Andreas Mueller fired from Schalke so an away win might be a good bet in the Bundesliga. Palermo and Atalanta in the Serie A. Now, since the Man U - Pool will be a high profile game with title rivalry involved, the probability of a draw increases. So I'll start with the West Ham vs West Brom game. 1st thing I do is look at the league table: Pos. Team Pld Pts W D L GF GA Dif Overall 7 West Ham 28 39 11 6 11 34 34 0 20 West Bromwich 28 22 6 4 18 25 54 -29 Home 9 West Ham 14 22 7 1 6 19 17 2 17 West Bromwich 14 17 5 2 7 19 27 -8 Away 8 West Ham 14 17 4 5 5 15 17 -2 19 West Bromwich 14 5 1 2 11 6 27 -21 From the league table its clear W. Broms' chances for survival are slim yet not impossible. They have the 2nd worst away defense and attack in the league. W.Ham seems a typical mid table. 2nd look at the consistency tables Team Gms Sc Cn Gd GF GA Over Home West Ham 14 9 11 1 19 17 7 West Bromwich 14 11 11 2 19 27 11 Away West Ham 14 9 10 5 15 17 6 West Bromwich 14 5 12 2 6 27 7 Here we can see W. Ham not as consistent at home as we might have wished while W. Broms' has been conceding consistently with only 2 clean sheets Key Gms = Games Played Sc = Games scores (at least once) Cn = Games conceded (at least once) Gd = Number of draws Gf = Amount of goals scored Ga = Amount of goals conceded Over = Number of overs 3rd. Lets look at where those clean sheets occurred. Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier Arsenal 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier Bolton 0:0 West Bromwich Sat Sep 27 08 English Premier Middlesbrough 0:1 West Bromwich Sat Oct 18 08 English Premier Manchester United 4:0 West Bromwich Tue Oct 28 08 English Premier Newcastle 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier Liverpool 3:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 22 08 English Premier Stoke 1:0 West Bromwich Sat Nov 29 08 English Premier Wigan 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Dec 13 08 English Premier Sunderland 4:0 West Bromwich Fri Dec 26 08 English Premier Chelsea 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Jan 10 09 English Premier Aston Villa 2:1 West Bromwich Sat Jan 31 09 English Premier Hull 2:2 West Bromwich Sun Feb 22 09 English Premier Fulham 2:0 West Bromwich Sat Feb 28 09 English Premier Everton 2:0 West Bromwich Both occurred at the beginning of the season, this bet is beginning to look good with no goals in the last 2 games. Lets look at W. Hams' matches: Sat Aug 16 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Wigan Sat Aug 30 08 English Premier West Ham 4:1 Blackburn Sat Sep 20 08 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Newcastle Sun Oct 5 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Bolton Sun Oct 26 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Arsenal Sat Nov 8 08 English Premier West Ham 1:3 Everton Sat Nov 15 08 English Premier West Ham 0:0 Portsmouth Mon Dec 8 08 English Premier West Ham 0:2 Tottenham Sat Dec 20 08 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Aston Villa Sun Dec 28 08 English Premier West Ham 2:1 Stoke Sun Jan 18 09 English Premier West Ham 3:1 Fulham Wed Jan 28 09 English Premier West Ham 2:0 Hull Sun Feb 8 09 English Premier West Ham 0:1 Manchester United Sun Mar 1 09 English Premier West Ham 1:0 Manchester City The results are not spectacular but looking at the opponents this looks like it could be a good bet. 4th the H2H: 08 Sep 13 English Premier West Bromwich 3:2 West Ham 0 0 0 06 May 1 English Premier West Bromwich 0:1 West Ham 2.25 3.29 2.89 05 Nov 5 English Premier West Ham 1:0 West Bromwich 1.83 3.29 4.33 03 Feb 23 English Premier West Bromwich 1:2 West Ham 2.39 3.2 2.7 02 Sep 11 English Premier West Ham 0:1 West Bromwich 1.6 3.45 5.5 Not a draw in sight. 5th and final step is checking the Video Previews of both teams last matches and go through the news. Once I've reached my conclusion I rift through the forums to see other punters views but not before I have done my own work. I am a bit worried mainly because of W.Hams' scoring and conceding are not as strong as I wish them to be, but there absolutely no indication to me that W. Ham would not win it even without Cole. So I pick Home win. Not that impressive maybe but it serves as an example. I will pick some more games to show the strength of this system. And now on to the next game..

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology I'll assume you got permission to mention your website, but to put it in a tread title is just taking the piss, nobody does that. As to all references above i can see they are relevant to the subject of the thread, so are you going to run this system here ? By that i mean post selections for a reasonable period of time, keeping track the system's performance ? Or is this just one of those 3 to 5 post threads ?

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology What's the big deal with the site anyhow, it's nice but i can't see anything that can't be found just as easily on a dozen other sites, unless i missed something really original somewhere ?

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Hi I didn't mean to take the mickey I have another thread with website name in title. So I wasnt aware of regulations.. No need to get mad a private message would have been a more appropriate way to say that.

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Nothing wrong with the other thread as the site is the subject of the thread, there are no specific regulations, i'm just asking for clarity. ( and i only use PM if i have to ) I do notice you haven't answered any of my questions.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology In the Man United - Liverpool game I'm seriously considering going for away win. Though Pool + 0.5 at almost evens seem pretty safe. Next I looked at Atalanta vs Torino. Because the home team be missing 3 of its top strikers: C. Doni, Flocari and Vieri. They also lost to lowly Chievo last time home. The h2h record favors Toro and looking at the video previews there seems a possibility of an away win. Looking at Toros' matches they have way too many draws, reading further Del Neri holds a soft spot for his former club Chievo. So I wait to see the actual lineups before making a decision. Karlsruhe - Bielefeld Going through the records KSC have the worst home record in the league, Bielefeld are almost just as bad away. I bet on them not to lose last time out at Köln and they were very lucky to get away with a draw. Only after looking at the videos a came to a decision to go for a home win because I was impressed by KSCs' game vs Wolfsburg. The stats dont bak it but I dont think Bielefeld will be able to withstand such a confident side with only 2 clean sheets on the road. So KSC @ 2.30 10/10 and W. Ham @ 1.77 10/10 are my bets so far.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Wolfsburg - Schalke Pick: Wolfsburg (-0.5) 10/10 [url=http://www.sports-punter.com/link.php?p=10bet]@ 2.25 (Back) I saw many of the Bundesilga experts go for HW Going though the precedure myself I found NO reason to back the guests. Seeing the Video shows Schalke to be a strong team but Wolfsburg are superior and aim higher this seaon.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Man United - Liverpool Thestatsclearly show MU as favorites But I pick away win here because I have never seen Liverpool play as god as they did vs Real Madrid. After seeing that kind of display its hard for me to back the home win even though MU have the best league record and are in top form as well. But they were lucky on a few occasions in the CL not to concede. Pick: Liverpool 10/10 @ 4.75 (Back)

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Pick: Athletic Bilbao 10/10 @ 3.5 The stats speak for Madrid but it's hard for me to back Real because of the CL exit.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Palermo - Lecce Lecce (+0.5) 10/10 @ 2.38 The main reason is the ridiculous handicap (-0.75) for Palermo. The lack of draws and the 'Unwritten Rules' of a new manager. Palermo have score in and conceded in 10/13 matches at the Renzo Barbera. They would like to win after 2 consecutive defeats at home to Juve and the Sicilian derby vs Catania. Last week they beat broken Fiore but the evident holes in the back weren't utilized by unlucky Fiore. Statistically the Giallorossi (Lecce) are suppose to lose this with a poor away record of conceding in 12/13 and only scoring in 6/12 but the 'Unwritten Rules' say that a new manager brings new fortunes and after looking at the previews I think Lecce have a strong enough side to get a result. After seeing that handicap its clear to me numbers are wrong. Good luck and god bless The 'Unwritten Rules' thread in PL: Atalanta - Torino Atalanta 10/10 @ 2.25 The main reason is the LOD (lack of draws). Atalantas' strength at the Azzurri and Torinos' defensive record with only one clean sheet. I was considering going for Torino yesterday because the LOD says either home or away and Atalantas' loses to Chievo (at home) and Milan. But Toro are not a team that wins games this season but rather draws them. Aatlanta is playing without their main strikers Floccari, Doni and Vieri and Del Neri hold a soft spot for his former club Chievo. Atalanta are a power house at home and if they score its hard to see Toro get a result here. Good luck and god bless

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Siena - Milan Milan 10/10 @ 2.10 The main reasons are the great odds. Milans' win over Atalanta and the news that Kaka will return. Also the fact that Inzaghi scored a hat trick is a clear sign to me. In the beginning of the season Pippo couldn't hit the net if he wanted to. Siena's home record is not that impressive. Good luck and god bless

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Racing - Numancia Pick: Racing Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 1.80 The importance of the match to Racing and Numancias' defensive record. Racing have only been able to put together 2 wins at the Sardinero but they have too many draws @ home 2-7-3. They are in good enough form and this match is a must win. They only failed to score vs Real Madrid and La Coru?±a while Numancia have no clean sheets. Their victory over Valencia though surprising was during a difficult time for Valencia. This hopefully should be different. Atl Madrid - Villareal Pick: Atl Madrid Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 2.10 The main reason is the LOD (Lack of draws). I have gome with the stats here. Although Atl?©tico have been eliminated and Villarreal has gone Atl?©ti have only failed onve to score at the Vicente Calder??n and Villareal have only kept a clean sheet twice. This match will be more important for the host declining position while Villareal are in CL 4th. Gijon - Deportivo Pick: Gijon Result: PENDING Stake: 10 Odds: 2.86 The main reasons are the LOD (lack of draws) Sportings' form and goals vs Osasuna and the fact that La Coru?±a have yet to complete two away win in a trot this season. Sporting have the worst home defensive record but they are in great form. La Coru?±a are not that brilliant on the road failing to score in half their games. They did beat Santander but there were big holes in the defence and Racing could have scored more. They way Sporting beat Osasuna made it hard for me to decide against them and looking at Depors' away record I've concluded to back the home team this time. Good luck and god bless

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology So far: KSC @ 2.30 10/10 Lost -10.0 Wolfsburg (-0.5) 10/10 @ 2.25 Won +22.5 Liverpool 10/10 @ 4.75 Won + 47.5 Athletic Bilbao 10/10 @ 3.5 Lost -10.0 Lecce (+0.5) 10/10 @ 2.38 Lost -10.0 Atalanta 10/10 @ 2.25 Won +22.5 Milan 10/10 @ 2.10 Won +21.0 Racing 10/10 @ 1.80 Won +18.0 Gijon 10/10 @ 2.86 Won +28.6 Barcelona (-1) 10/10 @ 1.88 Won +18.8 West Ham 10/10 @ 1.77 Lost -10.0 West Ham Under (2.5) 10/10 @ 1.83 Won +18.3 Final 120 pts invested 77.2 pts clean profit And only 1 draw at Espanyol - Mallorca Edit: Barcelona match added Edit 2: West Ham match added

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology West Ham - West Brom Under 2.5 10/10 @ 1.83 I placed a bet on WH at the beginning of the last week but the shifting odds made me look at the stats once again. Hammers have yet to keep two clean sheets in a trot at Upton Park this season and Baggies have not failed to score more than twice in a trot on the road. This match is much more important to the guests than the hosts who started dreaming about Europe. An upset is possible but I'd rather bet on a low score then find out. Good luck and god bless TuttiFooty.Com Footy Stats & Vids

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology So far the system is proving itself to provide profit in the long run. there were 2 draws from 13 matches so I have decided to add double chance home/away bets at 1.25 to 1.33 odds on matches I bet on and add a few more leagues. I thought of adding minor leagues but the English championship has no teams with no draws. TuttiFooty.Com does not provide stats for the French Ligue1 and Netherlands Eredivise so I feel naked doing the LOD methodology without TuttiFooty.Coms' Consistencies tables. :( But the success means I will be depositing funds to more bookies and continue to use the system. The lesson learned from this week is that While I use the LOD methodology to create a match list to choose from. The secondary proccess of choosing the winner is the heart of the proccess and it is hard work. Further lessons are to avoid being carried away by major successes i.e. going for Bilbao vs Real Madrid after the Liverpool win. Last but not least is that a great deal of expertise and experience is needed to know when to use the dry statistics and when to use intuition in identifying the winners. Good luck, An exiting new week is ahead, I can't wait :cheers

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

Day	Home	Away	1	X	2	Double Chance
Thu	Shaktar Donetsk	CSKA Moscow	2.3	3.5	3.45	1.3
Thu	Galatasaray	Hamburg	2.4	3.5	3.1	1.33
Thu	Braga	PSG	2.38	3.25	3.10	1.33
Thu	Aalborg	Man City	2.9	3.35	2.55	1.33
Thu	Zenit	Udinese	1.82	3.75	5.00	1.25
Sat	Catania	Lazio	2.48	3.20	3.25	1.35
Sat	Sevilla	Valladolid	1.73	4.0	6.0	1.25
Sun	Numancia	Sporting Gijon	2.4	3.4	3.25	1.30
Sat	West Brom	Bolton	2.48	3.40	3.10	1.30
Sun	Man City	Sunderland	1.6	4.0	7.0	1.30
Sat	Energie Cottbus	Köln	2.5	3.45	3.05	1.30
Sat	Hoffenheim	Hannover 96	1.62	4.2	6.2	1.25

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology I have not placed bets on these but non of the results were draws. In fact there was only 1 draw this week (St. Etienne vs Werder Bremen) If we'd taken the Double Chance on these game we would get a 12 pts profit.

Thu	Shaktar Donetsk	CSKA Moscow	2.3	3.5	3.45	1.3
Thu	Galatasaray	Hamburg	2.4	3.5	3.1	1.33
Thu	Braga	PSG	2.38	3.25	3.10	1.33
Thu	Aalborg	Man City	2.9	3.35	2.55	1.33
Thu	Zenit	Udinese	1.82	3.75	5.00	1.25

Ive searched for more markets since this week there are only 7 matches. Lower leagues are don't provide LOD teams so I picked the following teams from France Ligue 1 and Netherlands Eredivisie: PSG Home AZ Alkmaar Home Groningen Home Willem II Home Den Haag Away Sunday 22 March 2009

Home	Away	1	X	2	DC
Roda	Den Haag	1.86	3.80	4.80	1.3
Alkmaar	Feyenoord	1.55	4.33	8.00	1.2

Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology West Brom - Bolton Bolton Catania - Lazio Lazio Hoffenheim - Hannover 96 Hoffenheim -1 Liverpool - Aston Villa Aston Villa

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Its a 2nd draw for Albion that ruins bets! I suppose that there are teams that will start drawing games.. A draw is a red light because it is based on not drawing but two draws is too much. Bromwich and Hannover won't be counted on any more. Kölns' win covers the investment

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Catania - Lazio No draw but I was wrong to trust Lazio and I was prepared to be. Sevilla - Valldolid Sevilla are very strong in character and I should have backed the handicap. AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord The main reasons are the lack of draws (LOD). The current form both teams are in and the positive h2h record favouring the guests. TBH this is my 1st ever (that I can recall) bet in the Eredivisie. This week isn't going so well for me but I decided to take one more bet. Alkmaar have only lost at day #1 and not lost or even conceded except for the win over Willem II 3-1. Feyenoord are in good form but most importantly have an excellent record vs AZ and can most certainly win this as declared by manager Vlemmings, even withut Jon Dahl Tomasson. An away win would mean Feyenoord would complete it's 1st 3rd win in a trot this season and I think it could be time for a 1st (2nd) AZ defeat. Good luck

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Mate, you are all over the place in this thread and i have no idea what it is you are actually betting on. For example:

Kölns' win covers the investment

I can't find any bet on Koln. First this:

AZ Alkmaar Home - Alkmaar vs Feyenoord 1.55 , 4.33 , 8.00 , 1.2

Then this:

Alkmaar vs Feyenoord ....... h2h record favouring the guests

So is the bet the home team or the guests ? Lets have some clarity about what it is you actually bet on. Please mention the date, match, selection/market, bookmaker, price, stake with each individual bet so the actual bet is clear.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Sorry about that I post them in the proper thread and should post them here as well: Unfortunately this week was a setback :( West Brom - Bolton Bet on:Bolton Result: Draw -10.0 Catania - Lazio Bet on: Lazio Result: Home win -10.0 Energie Cottbus - Köln Bet On: Köln Result 0:2 @ 3.1 = 31.0 Hoffenheim - Hannover 96 Bet on:Hoffenheim -1 Result: Draw -10.0 Liverpool - Aston Villa Bet on: Aston Villa Result: Home win -10.0 AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord Bet on: Feyenoord Result: Draw -10.0 Roda - Den Haag No Bet Result: Home win Man City - Sunderland Bet on: Man City -1 Result: 1-0 (Push) invested : 60.0 pts Return: 31.0 pts ============ Week #2: -29.0 pts Total bank = 77.2 -29.0 = 48.2 TBC

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Hi Due to me being unaware this week has been losing money. This system is rather new going on 3 weeks and I am amazed of how much it thought me as well as learning from other punter here. The 1st and most obvious is that teams change their mood like the terrain changes when you climb a mountain. This is the closing part of the season and more emotions are involved. So I had to be more acutely aware and draws have to be warning signs and studied. 2nd is the importance of historic meetings (h2h) has on matches. In the lack of draws it had the most baring on the result. There are some leagues that are great for lack of draws and I found my new (5th) favourite league: Argentine..

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

April 4 - 5 match list

Today, 05:00

Match list of teams that rarely draw: Home (Draws/Home games) v Away (Draws/Away games) English Premier Sunday 5 April 2009 Manchester Utd(1/14) v Aston Villa(0/15) (17:00CET) 1.45 4.40 10.50 Ligue 1 Sunday 5 April 2009 PSG(1/14) v Nice(2/15) (16:00CET) 1.70 3.20 5.00 Bundesliga Saturday 4 April 2009 Hamburg(1/12) v Hoffenheim(4/12) (14:30CET) 1.90 3.48 4.05 Wolfsburg(1/12) v Bayern München(4/13) (14:30CET) 2.61 3.27 2.62 Sunday 5 April 2009 Karlsruher(1/12) v Mönchengladbach(2/12) (16:00CET) 2.39 3.25 2.95 Serie A Sunday 5 April 2009 Atalanta(1/15) v Fiorentina(2/15) (12:00CET) 2.57 3.10 3.02 Palermo(0/14) v Torino(6/14) (14:00CET) 1.78 3.30 5.30 Siena(5/14) v Lazio(1/14) (14:00CET) 2.49 3.10 3.14 La Liga Sunday 5 April 2009 Atlético Madrid(1/13) v Osasuna(7/14) (14:00CET) 1.66 3.60 5.55 Sporting Gijon(0/13) v Santander(2/14) (14:00CET) 2.68 3.15 2.70 Málaga(4/14) v Real Madrid(1/13) (14:00CET) 4.85 3.45 1.75 Betis(6/13) v Numancia(0/14) (14:00CET) 1.62 3.68 5.60 Valladolid(2/14) v Barcelona(1/13) (14:00CET) 6.70 4.35 1.45 Eredivisie Saturday 4 April 2009 AZ Alkmaar(1/14) v Den Haag(1/14) 1.16 6.38 12.71 Sunday 5 April 2009 Willem II(1/14) v Breda(3/15) 2.78 3.34 2.31 * Teams that tend to draw a lot or have drawn last round.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Man Utd - Aston Villa Man Utd (-1) (Asian Handicap) 10/10 The main reason behind this bet is the LOD (Lack of draws) Man Utd are 1/14 at Old Trafford and Aston Villa have no draws in 15 away games. So I either believe Aston Villa can win which I don't or back Man Utd. Villa has a poor record at Old Trafford and that is a strong indication to me that a home win will happen. Good luck and god bless

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Results: English Premier Manchester Utd(1/14) v Aston Villa 3-2 Ligue 1 PSG(1/14) v Nice(2/15) 2-1 Bundesliga Hamburg(1/12) v Hoffenheim 1-0 Wolfsburg(1/12) v Bayern München 5-1 Karlsruher(1/12) v Mönchengladbach(2/12) 0-0 Serie A Atalanta(1/15) v Fiorentina(2/15) 1-2 Palermo(0/14) v Torino(6/14) 1-0 Siena(5/14) v Lazio(1/14) 2-0 La Liga Atlético Madrid(1/13) v Osasuna(7/14) 2-4 Sporting Gijon(0/13) v Santander(2/14) 0-2 Málaga(4/14) v Real Madrid(1/13) 0-1 Betis(6/13) v Numancia(0/14) 3-3 Valladolid(2/14) v Barcelona(1/13) 0-1 Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar(1/14) v Den Haag(1/14) 4-1 Willem II(1/14) v Breda(3/15) 2-0 2/15 Drew I Also expected W. Brom and Hoffenheim to draw but neither did. I only took MU -1 But knowing both teams do not draw helped me in a live bet. I personally am sorry not to have used the LOD system because of time constraints, New managers are not decisive factors. Teams' goals, aspirations and necessities as well as historic records are. I definitely think I am on to something here and hope you share your thoughts on game in the remaining weeks of the season. Good luck

[ferrari jack]

Re: Lack of draws methodology paddy power offer a draw no bet on footie games so if a draw was to happen you wouldnt lose your stake.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

paddy power offer a draw no bet on footie games so if a draw was to happen you wouldnt lose your stake.

Thats true many bookies do.. i take DOB and can still lose if the other team wins.. LOD wants to identify teams that dont draw from 12- 17 matches I can expect one or two to draw.. My problem is identifying the winners.. They are usually: 1- the better sides 2- the more motivated and capable sides 3- historically favoured sides..

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology LOD Week #3 match list Premier League Saturday 11 April 2009 Chelsea(5/15) v Bolton(2/15) (16:00CET) 1.32 6.00 16.50 Portsmouth(2/15) v West Brom(3/15) (16:00CET) 1.76 3.75 5.70 Sunday 12 April 2009 Manchester City(0/15) v Fulham(7/15) (17:10CET) 1.97 3.50 4.80 Primera División Saturday 11 April 2009 Barcelona(2/15)v Recreativo(5/14)(20:00CET) 1.17 9.00 24.00 Sunday 12 April 2009 Gijon(0/14) v Valencia(4/14) (17:00CET) 3.70 3.40 2.25 Numancia(2/14) v Espanyol(5/15) (17:00CET) 2.74 3.30 2.90 Sevilla(2/15) v Getafe(6/14) (19:00CET) 1.58 4.20 7.40 Real Madrid(2/15) v Valladolid(1/14) (17:00CET) 1.32 5.90 12.50 Bundesliga Saturday 11 April 2009 Bayern München(2/12) v Frankfurt(4/13) (15:30CET) 1.35 6.00 13.00 Dortmund(9/13) v Köln(1/13) (15:30CET) 1.83 3.75 5.50 Cottbus(1/12) v Arminia(6/13) (15:30CET) 2.40 3.40 3.40 Hannover(6/13) v Hertha Berlin(2/12) (15:30CET) 2.64 3.45 3.00 M'Gladbach(2/13) v Wolfsburg(5/13) (15:30CET) 4.30 3.70 1.96 Schalke 04(3/12) v Karlsruhe(1/13) (15:30CET) 1.37 5.10 12.00 Sunday 12 April 2009 Stuttgart(3/13) v Hamburg(2/13) (17:00CET) 2.20 3.55 3.60 Serie A Saturday 11 April 2009 Bologna(3/14) v Siena(2/15) (15:00CET) 2.24 3.25 3.90 Fiorentina(2/14) v Cagliari(3/14) (15:00CET) 1.72 3.70 6.40 Ligue 1 Saturday 11 April 2009 Toulouse(5/15) v Nantes(2/15) (19:00CET) 1.67 3.75 6.80 Eredivisie Sunday 12 April 2009 Groningen(0/14) v Vitesse(3/14) (14:30CET) 1.73 3.90 5.75 Ajax(2/14) v Willem II(4/14) (16:30CET) 1.21 8.20 17.50 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Ive picked the following Wolfsburg 1.98 Cottbus 2.34 Schalke 04 1.3 Fiorentina 1.74 Bologna 2.21 Chelsea 1.3 Do you have any ideas as to the above or the Toulouse v Nantes? or the Hannover v Hertha Berlin? My Picks at Sports-Punter.Com Edit I forgot to add: Valencia 2.25 Sevilla -1 ah 1.99