A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Summary should be:

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£972.48
Total Staked	£10.02
Average Liability	£29.66
Number of Bets	2
Winning Bets	1
Losing Bets	1
Strike Rate	50.00%
Yield	-274.56%
P/L less 5% Comm	-£27.52

[muppet77]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops mate, your yield canot be less than 100%? even if you are laying bets you cannot lose more money than you put up. eg you have a liability of £100 to win £50 the bet loses - you lose £100. staked = £100 profit/loss = -£100 yield = -100%

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Cheers Muppet, so if the yield is the total liability divided by the profit/loss we get:

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£972.48
Total Staked	£10.02
Total Liability	£59.32
Number of Bets	2
Winning Bets	1
Losing Bets	1
Strike Rate	50.00%
Yield	-46.39%
P/L less 5% Comm	-£27.52

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops 2 feckin draws in as many days (thread is well over a month old and there were 2 draws in all 37 selections!!) so I was touching cloth a bit with the Chelsea and Stirling games!!! Still a profit of 16.46 after "tax" even with the draw at Inter which cost ~ 22 points.

HomeTeam	Result
Inter	:wall
Liverpool	:dude
Stirling	:dude
Chelsea	:dude
Sp Lisbon	:dude
Barcelona	:dude
Twente	:dude
Porto	:dude

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£988.94
Total Staked	£56.20
Total Liability	£286.18
Number of Bets	10
Winning Bets	8
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	80.00%
Yield	-3.86%
P/L less 5% Comm	-£11.06

Tomorrow's selections, same stakes.

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	BFOdds	Stake	Liability
12-Apr-09	KPN Eredivisie	Heerenveen	Volendam	90.74%	6.2	£6.02	£31.32
12-Apr-09	KPN Eredivisie	Ajax	Willem II	93.95%	8.2	£4.02	£28.91

:hope

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

HomeTeam	Result
Heerenveen	:dude
Ajax	:dude

Ajax scraped through that one! |Makes for a 9.54 profit today. Not bad overall, the two draws of -53 points for the weekend, which are likely but rare based on historic ratings, have been pretty much negated by the wins. Onwards and upwards.

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£998.48
Total Liability	£346.41
Number of Bets	12
Winning Bets	10
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	83.33%
Yield	-0.44%
P/L less 5% Comm	-£1.52

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Just 2 games this weekend:

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
18/04/2009	KPN Eredivisie	AZ Alkmaar	Vitesse	91.04%	10	20 WWdWWWWD	11 WWdWdlLl	AZ Alkmaar:10(4) Vitesse:8(4) Draws:5(3)	6.6	£6.02	£33.73
19/04/2009	Serie A	Milan	Torino	91.25%	10	14 WDlWlWWd	7 dDdWdLlL	Milan:8(5) Torino:1(0) Draws:8(3)	5.5	£6.02	£27.10

Off to Wembley to hopefully watch Everton sneak a win on Sunday so next update will be on Monday!! COYB :clap:nana:cheers:beer:gimme:moon:dude

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap What a weekend - pure carnage!! Final here we come!!!

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
AZ Alkmaar	:dude
Milan	:dude

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,009.92
Total Liability	£407.24
Number of Bets	14
Winning Bets	12
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	85.71%
Yield	2.44%
P/L less 5% Comm	£9.92

New bank means new stakes:

	100% of Bank
	£1,009.92
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.10	£25.25
3.6	£6.06	£15.75
7.4	£6.06	£38.78
7.5	£4.04	£26.26
11	£4.04	£40.40

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Couple more selections tonight pop pickers and one tomorrow.

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
21/04/2009	Conference	Histon	Weymouth	91.94%	25	14 WDllWWDW	0 LllLlLLL	Histon:2(0) Weymouth:0(0) Draws:1(1)	12.5	No bet over (£4.04 if < 11)	£40.40
21/04/2009	La Liga Primera Division	Real Madrid	Getafe	92.18%	19	22 WWWWWDWW	7 dDdDlLlW	Real Madrid:3(2) Getafe:4(1) Draws:2(1)	5.4	£6.06	£26.66

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Madrid - what a game, thought it was going to end in a draw after that penalty miss late on, but somehow the laid draw was pulled out the bag. :nana

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Histon	:dude
Real Madrid	:dude

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,019.52
Total Liability	£472.29
Number of Bets	16
Winning Bets	14
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	87.50%
Yield	4.13%
P/L less 5% Comm	£19.52

New bank means new stakes

	100% of Bank
	£1,019.52
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.20	£25.49
3.6	£6.12	£15.90
7.4	£6.12	£39.15
7.5	£4.08	£26.51
11	£4.08	£40.78

Tomorrows pick:

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
22/04/2009	Premier League	Man United	Portsmouth	92.37%	0	18 WWWWWWLl	8 LlLWdLdW	Man United:7(5) Portsmouth:3(0) Draws:1(0)	6.8	£6.12	£35.48

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Backtested Eng Prem results quite poor with this system, but after 2 losses I was confident it wouldn't be a draw.

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Man United	:dude

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,025.35
Total Liability	£507.87
Number of Bets	17
Winning Bets	15
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	88.24%
Yield	4.99%
P/L less 5% Comm	£25.35

New bank, new stakes:

	100% of Bank
	£1,025.35
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.25	£25.63
3.6	£6.15	£16.00
7.4	£6.15	£39.37
7.5	£4.10	£26.66
11	£4.10	£41.01

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops One selection tomorrow, 7 for Sunday:

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
25/04/2009	KPN Eredivisie	Anderlecht	Dender	94.20%	2	13 WlWdWW	10 WlWlDW	Anderlecht:2(1) Dender:0(0) Draws:1(0)	8.4	£4.10	£30.35

[a1ehouse]

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Panathinaikos odd dropped to 11; stake 4.12, liability 41.17

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Full house today, 22 on the bounce. Waiting for the next draw to eat into the profit!

HomeTeam	Result
Arsenal	:dude
Oxford	:dude
Panathinaikos	:dude
PAOK	:dude
Thrasyvoulos	:dude
Xerez	:dude
Porto	:dude

	A1ehouse LTD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,064.97
Total Liability	£766.82
Number of Bets	25
Winning Bets	23
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	92.00%
Yield	8.47%
P/L less 5% Comm	£64.97

New bank, new stakes:

	100% of Bank
	£1,064.97
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.65	£26.62
3.6	£6.39	£16.61
7.4	£6.39	£40.89
7.5	£4.26	£27.69
11	£4.26	£42.60

Went live with this when switched to laying draws :ok:

[Fast Eddie]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Good work on this a1ehouse. Why are you having such varied liabilities (effectively your stakes)? Are you keeping a record for level stakes (your stakes)?

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

Good work on this a1ehouse. Why are you having such varied liabilities (effectively your stakes)? Are you keeping a record for level stakes (your stakes)?

Thanks mate I am laying the draws, and the stakes are based on a percentage of my bank. Each time the bank grows, so do the stakes so with odds all being different so is my liability. At 1pt level stakes its +13.05pts

[Fast Eddie]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops But if you have two games both similarly priced at say 7.0 the draw and 7.5 the draw the market is effectively saying these two games have a very similar chance of being a draw and yet on one you have a 50% greater liability than the other. Isn't there a risk that this could skew your results one way or the other?

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops I am basing my selections on my ratings regardless of market price. However, the stakes are adjusted depending on available odds. Where odds are between 2.6 and 7.4 I stake 0.6% of the bank (currently £1064.97). This makes a stake of £6.38 with a liability between £16.61 and £40.89. Two games with odds of 7.0 and 7.5 may well be similar chances of a draw, but I am going off the ratings where a win expectancy is <=10% or >=90%.

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Couple today:

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
02/05/2009	Division 2	Brechin	Stranraer	93.32%	9	9 LLWWWl	3 lLLWLl	Brechin:12(6) Stranraer:5(1) Draws:2(2)	6.2	6.39	33.23
02/05/2009	Serie A	Inter	Lazio	93.27%	9	11 WWWDdl	6 LllWWL	Inter:6(3) Lazio:9(3) Draws:16(9)	4.3	6.39 or 6.43 if bet1 wins	21.09 or 21.21if bet1 wins

Hi draws on Inter/Lazio, but relying on the ratings!

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Brechin	:dude
Inter	:dude

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,077.14
Total Liability	£821.88
Number of Bets	27
Winning Bets	25
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	92.59%
Yield	9.39%
P/L less 5% Comm	£77.14

New bank = New stakes:

	100% of Bank
	£1,077.14
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.77	£26.93
3.6	£6.46	£16.80
7.4	£6.46	£41.36
7.5	£4.31	£28.01
11	£4.31	£43.09

Tomorrows selections:

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
03/05/2009	Serie A	Juventus	Lecce	92.59%	12	9 WWDlDd	4 lDlLlW	Juventus:11(6) Lecce:2(1) Draws:4(1)	5.2	6.46	27.30
03/05/2009	Premier League	Liverpool	Newcastle	94.04%	21	16 WWWWDW	2 LdLLdl	Liverpool:18(12) Newcastle:7(1) Draws:6(2)	6.6	6.46	36.18

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	AwayTeam
Liverpool	:dude
Juventus	:wall

A last minute equalizer stops a streak of 25. Had to happen sooner or later.

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,055.98
Total Liability	£885.37
Number of Bets	29
Winning Bets	26
Losing Bets	3
Strike Rate	89.66%
Yield	6.32%
P/L less 5% Comm	£55.98

Stakes as follows after the Liverpool game:

	100% of Bank
	£1,083.28
Prices	Stake	Liability
3.5	£10.83	£27.08
3.6	£6.50	£16.90
7.4	£6.50	£41.60
7.5	£4.33	£28.17
11	£4.33	£43.33

[a1ehouse]

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Disappointed with another draw, could have been worse before the last minute goal at Sp Lisbon. Looking into other staking plans to avoid wiping the winnings out as with all lay systems. Anyone offer any advice?

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Anderlecht	:dude
Benfica	:wall
Sivasspor	:dude
Sp Lisbon	:dude

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,037.35
Total Liability	£1,021.00
Number of Bets	33
Winning Bets	29
Losing Bets	4
Strike Rate	87.88%
Yield	3.66%
P/L less 5% Comm	£37.35

[davidc]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Hi a1ehouse - good luck with your system.

Disappointed with another draw, could have been worse before the last minute goal at Sp Lisbon. Looking into other staking plans to avoid wiping the winnings out as with all lay systems. Anyone offer any advice?

I believe that there is a common misconception when it comes to staking for lays as most people do not quote their liability as the stake amount but quote the backers stake instead. Perhaps if you used the liability and recalculated the % amount to be staked on each bet perhaps so as your liability is the same for each bet, you might be able to minimize loses. I had a (short) discussion with Paul about the way lay bets are defined on Sportspunter as I believe that if a tipster has a regular win stake of (e.g.) 10 points then this should also apply to lay bets and only 10 points should be risked instead of recording the liability, which could be much larger than that. The main point for me is that the amount of risk should be used and not the amount of reward. E.g. if I want to lay (risk) 10 points on a selection @ 3.0 I would need to take 5 points of the backers stake (reward) to achieve this.

At 1pt level stakes its +13.05pts

Is the above return calculated on 1pt risk or reward, if you see what I mean. Not sure if the above will make sense :eek :hope

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Thank davidc. Back testing the system over the last 9 seasons I get: Bets: 2068 Wins: 1803 Strike Rate: 87.19% Ave Odds: 5.31 So there has to be a staking plan in there! I have had a play around with "the Staking Machine" and the analysis for the lay systems are pretty good. ROI between 5.4 on Maria to 10.27 on Basic Lay Ladder. Cumulative profit peaked on Lay Percentage.

Is the above return calculated on 1pt risk or reward, if you see what I mean.

The +13.05pt profit is based on a stake of £1 for every bet rather than ratchet and percentage of bank, and liability ranged from £3.20 to £10. At that time:

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,013.05
Total Liability	£147.40
Number of Bets	25
Winning Bets	23
Losing Bets	2
Strike Rate	92.00%
Yield	8.85%
P/L less 5% Comm	£13.05

[a1ehouse]

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Bordeaux	:dude
Chelsea	:dude
Inter	:dude

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,055.87
Total Liability	£1,123.69
Number of Bets	36
Winning Bets	32
Losing Bets	4
Strike Rate	88.89%
Yield	4.97%
P/L less 5% Comm	£55.87

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Last few selections this season!

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
23/05/2009	La Liga Primera Division	Barcelona	Osasuna	91.95%	12	16 WWWWdW	7 WWlLdL	Barcelona:10(6) Osasuna:3(1) Draws:6(2)	3.5	10.83	27.06
24/05/2009	Premier League	Arsenal	Stoke	90.26%	10	16 WWWdWW	10 WWDWlL	Arsenal:0(0) Stoke:1(0) Draws:0(0)	4.78	6.50	31.85

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

Last few selections this season!

TopAndThePlops

Date	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	WinExpectancy	GoalSuperiority	HomeTeamForm	AwayTeamForm	HeadToHead	Betfair	Stake	Liability
23/05/2009	La Liga Primera Division	Barcelona	Osasuna	91.95%	12	16 WWWWdW	7 WWlLdL	Barcelona:10(6) Osasuna:3(1) Draws:6(2)	3.5	10.83	27.06
24/05/2009	Premier League	Arsenal	Stoke	90.26%	10	16 WWWdWW	10 WWDWlL	Arsenal:0(0) Stoke:1(0) Draws:0(0)	5.9	6.50	31.85

Arsenal Draw bf odds are 5.9 not 4.78 (betbrain av odds)

[a1ehouse]

Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops

TopAndThePlops

HomeTeam	Result
Barcelona	:dude
Arsenal	:dude

That makes a Lay the Draw summary of:

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,072.34
Total Liability	£1,182.62
Number of Bets	38
Winning Bets	34
Losing Bets	4
Strike Rate	89.47%
Yield	6.12%
P/L less 5% Comm	£72.34

Final summary for all bets (converting all advised selections in this thread to laying the draw):

	A1ehouse LtD
Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,246.35
Total Liability	£2,418.75
Number of Bets	75
Winning Bets	69 :ok
Losing Bets	6
Strike Rate	92.00% :clap
Yield	10.19% :nana
P/L less 5% Comm	£246.35 :dude

Overall pleased with the results and backtesting over 9 years worth of data is good too, so I will definately be running the system next season. Will continue to look for a decent staking plan tho. Congrats to Everton who finish 5th today, see you in Wembley next week boys!!