Taunton 16/02

[stewartd14]

Tuesday 17th February ********************NAP SELECTION ************************ Race: 14.50 Taunton Selection: Ronaldo Des Mottes (Saver Summery Justice) An interesting novice hurdle on heavy going this, and there are a lot of unknowns, making this a slightly dangerous NAP. However, I have a feeling this horse is capable of going close at Cheltenham, therefore he looks a stand out bet today. The first thing to note about this horse is that his trainer, David Pipe is in excellent form after a slow start to the season. You just need to look at the amount of placed horses he has had over the past few weeks to see this. Now we know the trainer is in form, we can move on to the horse himself. This French import has made quite an impression since crossing the channel. On the face of it, he didnt beat much when he won his debut in fine style. However, the 2nd, Silk Affair, has come out and won 2 on the bounce since, making Ronaldo Des Mottes' debut victory look quite impressive. He beat Silk Affair with relative ease that day, and based on that run alone, I would give him a rating of around 120 (Silk Affair: 110) Second time out, Ronaldo Des Mottes faced a tougher task in a class 3 race at Sandown on heavy going. He was sent off a generous 3/1 that day and again drew clear from the rest of his rivals, eventually winning by a length. The form of that race is a little unknown at this stage, but he did beat Awesome George (Rated 132) by over 10 lengths. If Awesome George ran to form, that has to bode well for Ronaldo Des Mottes' chances today. Looking at the rest of the field, the strangely named Nictory Vote has to be respected, but I am not sure that the Nicholls yard is firing at full power yet. Victor Dartnall is out of form in my opinion, and that would rule out Sir Kezbaah. The big danger for me is the Venetia Williams trained Summery Justice, and I would recommend a saver. Advice: 10 pt win Ronaldo Des Mottes 1 pt win Summery Justice ************NB SELECTION ******************* Race: 14.20 Taunton Selection: William Bonney Reasoning: The opener on Taunton's card is a cagey heat with only 4 runners, abd I am actually siding with the outsider of the 4. I feel there are enough weaknesses in his rivals that makes them worth opposing with Charlie Mann's William Bonney. First of all, I will assess the chances of the others in the race: Stumped obviously has to be respected as he takes a big drop in class, but he is yet to gain that elusive first victory over fences, and he doesnt seem as good over the larger obstacles as he was over hurdles. He has been knocking on the door with 2 decent runs in similar races, but he hasnt actually managed to get his head in front. We can forget his run last time as that was a step too far for him. This is a drop in class, but I dont think Stumped is one to rely on yet. Super Formen takes his chance for the all conquering Nicholls/Walsh combination, and holds obvious claims. However, as I referred to in the write up for the NAP, I am not sure about the form of the yard and that initially makes me wary of taking a short price for this horse. Apart from his debut victory in a National Hunt Flat race, Super Formen has still yet to win a race, yet he is still odds on for today ...... Admittedly he has been keeping better company and running against better horses, but like Stumped, I cant rely on this one. Arctic Magic looks to have the toughest task of the lot of them here, although the feather weight he has to carry may help. This is another runner who was decent over hurdles, but has only managed a couple of placed efforts in his 2 runs over fences. The form of Arctic Magic's 2 races isnt brilliant, but the weight is a big advantage in this going. May be overpriced, but has a lot to do. So, that brings us on to the selection, William Bonney. This horse has a lot of experience over fences, and although he still hasnt got his head in front, he has run some nice races and will be able to take advantage of any mistakes that may be made by his less experienced rivals. In his past runs, he always just seems to find one or two too good, and that may be the case today. However, I can see weaknesses in all his rivals, Charlie Mann is in excellent form and Noel Fehily may be able to coax this one home. At the prices expected, he is definitely the value play for me. Advice 5pt win William Bonney @ SP

[PL2008]

Re: Taunton 16/02 Using my seconditis for today :ok 15:50 TAUNTON Ski Sunday 5-2 RPF & currently 3-1 w/Paddy Power 10pts Lay @ 3.90 Betfair Handicap debut today. Won against maidens by 6L lto but beaten 17 lengths at best in three Novices event. Going up against tougher rivals here. R De Rein Sivola is a Grade 2 placed runner from 15Nov08 and is 6-4 Favorite with Paddy Power. Sydney Sling won a maiden race 01Dec08 by 18L and the Evan Williams stable looks one to follow again. Williams have one other runner today in the 4:00. Form of 1423 from 21-22 furlongs @ 25-1. That runner (Im Spartacus) have not raced since 24Nov07 so a minimum ew bet. Nothing Is Forever did well here from two runs at the C&D. 2nd of 14 and a Fall. The falling run was still good as he travelled well and leading when came down at 2 out. Timmy Murphy rides for R J Hodges and he usually does well for the trainer so another danger here. They are represented by a 4th of 12 by 4 3/4L lto in a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle. 25-1 Hungry For More should like the rise in trip and booking of in form jockey R P Flint.

[Spooner]

Re: Taunton 16/02 A couple of horses I backed last week run today and im willing to go in again on them. 14:50 - Ronaldo Des Mottes Here is what I wrote: 'I put this horse up yesterday on Sports-Punter for the Triumph in March @ 50/1, I think he has a very strong chance. Won well on hurdling debut and the 2nd in the race Silk Affair went onto win NTO and win well. Pipe's horses are in good form and im hoping this horse will win this well and hopefully go to the Triumph, If he does I think he has a very strong chance.' He drifted quite badly from 13/8 to a 3/1 SP but still won, I think he looks a strong selection again here. 10pts win @ SP 15:50 - Ski Sunday Here is what I wrote about Ski Sunday: 'I'm surprised that Ski Sunday is such a big price here, he was 3rd LTO beaten 5L by Stow who has some decent form in the book, went onto win yesterday in a class 2 at Haydock. Posted a good run at Ascot behind Amore Mio who went onto beat Optimus Maximus in his next run so the form line looks very good. Tim Vaughan will handle the trip and ground fine today and should run a big race.' I took the 20/1 and he actually went off 22/1 im still getting over that price, He won quite nicely by 6 lengths and I fancy him to run a big race also today. 10pts win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Taunton 16/02 2.50 Ronaldo des Mottes 1.8 spo 15 pts Put this up the other day and for the second time it won pretty comfortably, possibly with more in hand than the winning margin suggests. I think its pretty significant that its being brought out again and this in general looks a weak race in depth that it should be able to win. The one darkhorse if the PN runner who makes his UK debut and for whom there has been some talk about but he will have to be very good to beat RDM who for me looks one of the better novice hurdles in the UK.

[RizL4]

Re: Taunton 16/02 Blueland 4:50 win bet Dutch bill E/W 16:20 Summery Justice E/w 14:50

[Rainbow]

Re: Taunton 16/02 nictory vote 250 taun. 1 pt win. has form in france to suggest he can go well today and paul nicholls can improve a horse any amount. looks to have only one danger and with that being long odds on, we get a decent enough price for us. should go very close.

[PL2008]

Re: Taunton 16/02 Southwell 3:00 Itsa Legend won a bumper, 4/12 over hurdles, and won beginners chase in three runs with Wayne Hutchinson. Lifetime for has 3 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds from 14. So, it looks like a good day to back him with Hutchinson back on board. Their last combo was win by a short head to Big Fella Thanks on reappearance last year. Might cause some chaos here and have one of the two market leaders to be unplaced. 1pt ew @ 14-1 Bet365 BOG

[Stevet1859]

Re: Taunton 16/02 4:50 Taunton: Posh Emily 2pts win 20/1 VCBet Not the greatest race. Posh Emily does have winning course form. Step up in trip is a further concern but worth a speculative punt at the odds.