Market Rasen - 16 feb

[stewartd14]

Race: 16.20 Market Rasen Stake: 2.5 pts EW Selection: European Dream Reasoning: The feature race on the Market Rasen card is an interesting and competitive handicap. The heavy ground will no doubt prove key to finding the winner, and that leads us to the selection European Dream. This horse provided Rae Guest with a much needed tonic last time after a poor season by his standards, and we are backing him to go in again. He was a proven mudlark on the flat, and he has transferred that trait into his jumping form. Even though he is proven on the ground, it is his recent form that makes him stand out from the rest of the field. Since November, he has managed 2 wins from 5 runners, and has had a solid winter campaign. He has run with credit in listed and Graded races, but he was seen to much better effect when dropped in class at Musselburgh last time. He didnt get his preferred ground, but stayed on dourly to take the prize. Today sees him take his chance in a similar contest in his favoured heavy ground. I think that the combination of his experience and the heavy going will see him go very close. -------------------------------------------- Race: 14.35 Market Rasen Stake: 10 pts win Selection: Our Hero Reasoning: First of all, this looks a very bad race on papaer and wont take much winning. The stand out bet looks to be Charlie Longsdon's Our Hero, but I can only hope that the price is anything close to respectable. All things considered though, he looks the NAP of the day. He has only had one run in the UK, and that was in a Newbury bumper. However, that wasnt just any Newbury bumper. If we look into the form of the race, we can conclude that it is extremely strong. To show you what I mean, take a look at the following breakdown of the race: -------------------------------------------- 1st Mad Max - Had won 3 NHF races previously, and is currently as short as 12/1 for the Supreme Novices Hrdle at Cheltenham. 2nd Pause and Clause - Won a class 2 hurdle in fine style last time out and is also in the Cheltenham picture. 3rd: Shoreacres - Rater 133 over timber, and was going to hack up before falling last time out. 4th: Our Hero 5th: Cockney Trucker - Rated 130, and ran 8th in last years Champion Bumper. -------------------------------------- So, from just analysing the first 5 that finished in that race, we can conclude how strong the form is. The placings would actually give Our Here a rating of around 131, which would be capable of winning a listed race, never mind a Class 4 hurdle at Market Rasen. This is backed up by the fact the 2nd, Pause and Clause has gone on to win a Class 2 hurdle with relative ease. Our Hero gave a great impression in a super hot race last time, and this is a big drop down in class. He should find this a lot easier and it should be a good chance to get off the mark over hurdles. :hope

[PL2008]

Re: Market Rasen - 16/09 15:10 MARKET RASEN Wychwoods Legend Most experienced of these with 9 runs already. 2021 since fitted with tounge strap. The last three runs have been in Handicap company. The last two being Handicap Hurdles at Exeter and Kempton. Second by 6L to Terry Warner's Penn Da Benn at Exeter - winner by 4L in a Class 3 HcH next time. Won at Kempton lto defeating the second horse by 2 lengths with 3rd another 25 lengths back. First time at this trip but form from a furlong shorter has a 2nd and lto's win. She's the most consistent of the five here and drop back to a non-handicap race should help. WIN

[Spooner]

Re: Market Rasen - 16/09 16:20 - Squadron Nice horse this one, he came back this season for his first run in October after winning a Juvenile Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, he ran a cracking race on comeback at Chepstow, he was second to Crack Away Jack which was a massive improvement on his run in the Fred Winter at the Festival. Followed that up with a decent display at Aintree, it was a two horse race against Pierrot Lunaire who fell two out but I felt when watching the race that Squadron possibly had the beating on him anyway. Ran another decent race at Cheltenham in the Greatwood when 4th of 12 runners. Raced twice since that and I have been quite disappointed as he seems to have taken a step back again after some good form, he finished 5 of 14 at Newbury. Both those races he had every chance of winning but weakened quite easily. Pulled up in his last run at Ascot which has to be a worry if your a backer today but I can only hope King has him right. One thing I would say about Squadron today is that he definitely has the class to win this, ive also noticed through his career he has ran some of his best races in smaller fields. On both occasions with less then seven runners over hurdles he has won both. Confident of a big run from him today. @ 7/2 Ladbrokes

[bowles10]

Re: Market Rasen - 16/09 4.20 Market Rasen Dont often see a race of this quality on a Monday! Squadron Trained by Alan King (3-29 last 14 days) Ridden By Robert Thornton (3-18 last 14 days). Acheived 2 wiining marks over 130 (130 & 136 over hurdles), runs off 135 today at the top of the weights. Its flat rating only topped 72 as a highest winning mark & best performance over hurdles was its 2nd to Crack away Jack at Chepstow back in October 08. Loves this type of ground recording the following figures 1-1-4-1 on 4 runs on Soft / heavy. European Dream trained by R Guest (0-4 last 14 days) & ridden by claimer D Culliane (5lbs) (0-0 last 14 days). Acheived 2 wining marks over hrudles of 122 & 125 but had a high flat winning rating of 98, the best in this field. It runs off 130 today, 5lb higher than when winning the big race in Musselburgh a few sundays ago. On the ground, it has figures of 3-2-3-3 on soft/.heavy. Pagan Starprincess trianed by G M Moore (0-1 Last 14 days) & Ridden by F Keniry (2-4 last 14 days). Achieved 2 winning marks over hurdles to date of 127 & 120 & goes off 129 today only a 2lb rise. Its last win against Chomba Womba was arguably its best performance especially only receiving 5lb from the favourite that day. Again, will like the ground with impressive stats of 1-1-P-1 on the ground to date. Carrickboy trained by V Williams (10-35) & Sam Thomas (7-23) who are the most in form trainer/jockey presently! Coms here from novice company after hosing up last time & may be lightly treated off 120. Has won on the ground 1 from 2 races. Of the other 3, Dancers Serenade has achieved a win off 116 before & is only 1lb higher today, its form on the ground reads 2-4-8-1-1. Has been chasing on last 2 runs but not out of it on hurdles form, is the only stayer in the field also. Has finished behind Pagan Star princess btn 27L but today has a 15lb pull on that rival. Recommendation: I will be leaving out European Dream as the horse i feel has most to do from the 5 i have selected above, also Carrickboy won a modest hurdle last time out & this is far tougher & will back the other 3. Best odds i can find are Squadron 7/2 Sporting bet 5pts Pagan starprincess 3/1 Betfred 5pts Dancers serenade 7/1 Tote 3pts

[KautoStar666]

Re: Market Rasen - 16/09 3.45 Maidstone Mixture He drops in grade here for this one after finishing along way behind Loug Derg at Cheltenham, he should definately appreciate the ground here today and i believe will give the odds on favourite a run for his money.... Currently 8/1 bet365...

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Market Rasen - 16 feb BAWNAFAUGH 2.05 Market Rasen. 0.5 points each way. Has the form and ability to be in the fight for the line and with a more than capable Jodie Mogford doing the steering and with no trip and ground concerns, he'd be the bet for me at attractive odds.

[bowles10]

Re: Market Rasen - 16 feb 3.45 Fav should win easy but could Spume get a place at decent odds, currently 50 to win on betfair but only 3.85 to place! So that just shows the place between the other 7 runners is tight.