Did bookies covers their bets on Betfair

[ogii55]

For the last two months i studied very carefully betfair and all the other bookies moves just before the races. Everyone here knows that with betfair you may get better odds in 99% of the best. But it was very interesting for me to see how bookies reacts to big changes in the markets and how betfair reacts on bookies changes? The other interesting thing to disciover is when is the best time to get the most valuable price no the selection on betfair? First to explain that often the difference between betfair and bookies is huge. There is somesort of percentage of the bookies prices and betfair prices. For example 21.00 at the bookies is moving betwenn 27-32 on the major cases. 26.00 is moving betwenn 34-46. I never made calculation for the exact percentage, but it;s almost the same. The difference reacts at the same time right to the place market on Betfair (which is far better then E/W proposition in the bookies and event the value difference is 1 - 1.5 times better then the value difference between winning price bookies/betfair). 1. In most of the cases around 10 minutes before the start of the case biggesr part of the bookies with pointed interest in horse racing made serious update of the prices. The exceptions are VC and 888/Blue Square, who are making slight moves up and down hours before the race for some minute or two, and i think the major reason is to attract the attention of the market moving tools (as the one i use it oddschecker.com). Around two before the race on the market starts the moves up and down (i speak here for the major case, always you may find huge difference between Betfair evening prices and the prices on the next day for some horse, who isn't judge well or grabs huge attention, but as i said its somesort of exception). Now what i mention is that more often the drop/raise of the prices first starts on bookies (i am used 10 seconds of interval making refresh of oddchecker, and in several cases on some other bookies as Ladbrokes or Stan James). The late is betwenn 30 sec and one minute. Often when we have big drop, for example from 41 to 26 missing 34 range, betfair drops a little bit more and then calibrate in the next seconds. My ask is, do you thing that bookies sold their lay to betfair, that are ready to pay to players when they match some player bet. It's almost clear that the prices are far better and always bookies may get sure bet or better for them to back the bet of the player on price that is giving small win, without sense who is winning? I think it will not be difficilt to hire someone, who uses Market tools and is very into Betfair to react in no more then 10 seconds to the value of bets that is comming to the bookie for one race. It was always interesting to me how many bets are comming for example at Will Hill for not so strong race as some 8 f in Sowthwell? And if it's possible for one capable when well teached person to handle with all the comming bets? This is really the most logic way, how the bookies may proceed (it's not only about racing of course)? Or why not to use some bot, who may authomaticly back all the comming bets in the bookie. I know that there are a lot of software tools used by market traders and some of them has options of automaticly back or lay. I know that the bookies has software to change the odds of the way betting stream is comming. But what makes me thing about is why according to my research in the last two months the changing of the odds is comming by the range of maximum two minutes in mentioned big changes period 10 minutes before the race. Is it possible that the clients of Paddy are thinking by the same way as the clients of bet365 in the very same period of 9th and 7-th minute between the start of the race? I don't have enough time to study, but it will be interesting to see, who are the first bookles that starts major changes. 2. When is the best time to get bigger odd for the selection? Someone says - the eveing, but during that time it's very tough to match a lot of money on big priced horces. The other huge problem is that you get very serious deduction with nonrunners. So called deduction didn't think about a lot of things. First is how different is to start from box 13 on 6 f race at Wolverhamption with 13 horses and with 5 horses. Second is how much players will play deducted a lot of times favorit to 1.10 and often the price is going up after the deduction and you stay with your 1.05 after deduction (i never play such horses, but mentioned on Betfair graphics). Also you have change of going, jockeys.... At the morning you have early prices from the bookies. Nice way to see what the oddsmakers are thinking and from me one of the two best moments to make the bets. It;s nice, because Betfair adjust right away to the new prices and just after that is starting the movings up end down. Here the major problem is once again the comming of nonruners. So that's why i think the best time to make bets for selected horses is two to one hour before the beginning of the card. Here the nice thing is that u may catch some sleepy bookie, who didn't move at time the odds, who moved modestly on Betfair and other bookies. Very often i wait to much for outsiders and they are loosing a lot of the nice prices. For example today i mised one second place of Jimmy Queen by Dictatorship on Wolverhampton 2.45, because i put it to match my money on 16 for place, when i saw the odds are going down from 17 to 15. After it they continued to go down, reached 9 go up to 13, but never reach 16. I knew that the horse's value is 10+ for place and would play it even on 10 if i didn't saw first time 17 for place and wait to much before posting my back bet and after that i didn't broke my own rule to never go down by price with my back selection (i broke it very often in fact:, but not this time) I hope that i explain myself well with my not so good English It's very long post, but think that thread will be useful for all to share their observations.