GaF Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I have got the impression recently that when short stacked, and getting any pocket pair, I shove too liberally with too many players to act after me and seem to walk into a larger pocket pair too often for it to be profitable - I dont know if this is the case or if it's just a perception. So I'm going to crunch some numbers to find the probability that each pocket pair faces a larger pocket pair (pre flop) with X Players left to act.... I'm only interested in the frequency I face an overpair as nothing else scares me (If I'm short stacked, I'm happy to race) Thought I'd get the thread up before crunching the numbers for people to give their perceptions and thoughts before seeing their numbers.... If I can do this in the next 30 mins or so, you'll see it tonight - if it takes longer, probably wont be until tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked You going to take into account that the larger pkt pair might not call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked You going to take into account that the larger pkt pair might not call? No - I'm short stacked, so assuming that a larger pocket pair will always call (to maintain a conservative approach to the calculations) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Only 50% yet it never seems like that Gaf does it. I've felt the same recently about shoving small pairs with many players to act but you have just cleared this up for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Well I'm not calling you with 3's 4's 5's or 6's so your 2's 3's 4' and 5's are safer than you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Yeah - accept that glceud :ok I'm really surprised with the result - I didn't expect it to be so (and indeed so conclusive) - makes it easy in Coolers/Double or Nothing when I'm 6th of 7 an M of 4 or 5 and 22 UTG - I've been folding them, but it has to be wrong..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Not calling Hawkeye with 2's 3's 4's 5's 6's 7's 8's 9, 10's or 11's, bet her % of running to over pairs is <2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluence Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked I play live mostly and some nights when I'm totally card dead I manage to stick around making use of my very tight image to steal occasionally to stay afloat. Then of course I pick up my first PP of the night (say J's or Q's) and walk straight into Aces. Game over. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Not calling Hawkeye with 2's 3's 4's 5's 6's 7's 8's 9' date=' 10's or 11's, bet her % of running to over pairs is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muttley Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked No - I'm short stacked' date=' so assuming that a larger pocket pair will always call (to maintain a conservative approach to the calculations)[/quote'] You should also include the times you get called by an overpair and still win. 2,2, M <5, first in, I'm all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked First point would be the perception. Poker players in general will quickly forget the pushes with small pairs that either take the blinds or hold up against AK. You don't worry even when the AK out-draws you as you knew it was a ''coin toss''. But to suddenly find yourself swamped by the 44? It impacts with such a force that it embeds itself on your memory. You'll be laid in bed remembering the ''bad move'' that you made and questioning it's validity. Very similar to AA getting turned over...you remember when that happens to...but you don't specifically remember the times you won with them. Reckon it's just the way our minds work. Second point for me would be an equal danger to being called by a higher pair. When you're very short stacked, particularly in coolers, and you shove with your little diddlers...you are likely to be called by two or three callers who sub-consciously collude by checking the hand down to eliminate you. With 3 callers, all with overcards, but no pairs, likely to leave you very little more than 20% chance of survival. (30% with 2 callers) Being short stack decimates any fold equity and opens you up to many dangers if you're pushing from early position with these hands. The intention of shoving here must be to take the blinds...but the more short stacked you are then the higher the expected number of callers and hence the lower expectation of survival. So maybe there is a case (and again I'm swaying towards coolers here) that small pocket pairs can be profitable to shove with when short stacked...but there will be a degree of shortness that turns the odds against you. Hope this makes sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked An interesting thread here GaF:ok. I would have probably also folded 22 UTG even if fairly (but not desparately) short. Dodge has a salient point that if you are very short, the number of callers will increase, reducing the effectiveness of the shove. Looking back at a couple of MTT's I've played recently and my all-in pushes, I have been sucessfull with 33 (twice) 55, 77, 88(twice) aswell as 87s 98 and T9s, yet went out with AQs and AK:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked I'm really surprised with the result - I didn't expect it to be so (and indeed so conclusive) - makes it easy in Coolers/Double or Nothing when I'm 6th of 7 an M of 4 or 5 and 22 UTG - I've been folding them, but it has to be wrong..... Actually obviously (:$) not totally as straightforward as that... Sometimes the overpair will fold (as someone else said) Sometimes you shove and take it down, winning the blinds only Sometimes you shove and are called by an overpair, losing your entire stack Sometimes you shove and are called by live cards and then racing to double up.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanfaz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Yes, it is ok to open-shove with any pocket pair in virtually any position when short, but there are many situational differences.........but generally yes its fine. Not ideal though when you're holding 22! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: Small Pocket Pairs in early position when short stacked Sorry post deleted...it was just wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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