Horses for Courses All-weather system

[fintron]

This was a simple system I used around 12 months ago but as the turf meetings trickled back in and the amount of all-weather racing was reduced I wound it down. I also wanted the freedom to pick whatever horses I wanted, without being tied down by the rules of a system. However, 12 months on, I want to see if the same system still finds its fair share of winners. Last time I did this backing horses to win failed to produce a profit although backing all horses to place on the Tote was a bit more successful. The rules of the system are simple;

• Look only at AW races i.e. Kempton, Wolverhampton, Great Leighs, Lingfield or Southwell. I may try the system out on Dundalk too now that circuit has sprung up.
• Back horses that have recorded a CD win within their last three runs. I use Sporting Life's definition of a CD winner (CD next to horses name on racecard) which is a little looser than the RP definition. For example, Autumn Morning is a CD winner at Wolv today according to Sporting life, even though its win came over 1 m 1f and today it runs over 1 m 1f 103 yards.
• Take no notice of differences in race type. For example a horse's CD win may have come in a claimer and it may now be running in a handicap. It doesn't matter.
• Ignore any other changes such as a weight hike, different jockey booking, or application of headgear etc. This is designed to be a quick and easy, rough and ready system, that requires as minimal form reading as possible and can be followed practically at a glance.

The reason for picking horses that have won within their last three runs is that they have showed some decent, recent ability. If you include a horse that has recorded a CD win at any point in its career I found the system to be less effective. When qualifying selections were thin on the ground as the flat season started last season I ended up bending the rules, and it was to the detriment of the system. If a horse has a recent CD win then knowledge of the circuit is fresh in their mind if you like. We are at the point in the AW season now where a CD win in the last three runs probably means within the last few months, as many horses are kept on the go and are likely to hold their form if this is the case. There may be some that recorded their win at the end of last season, so although they have a win in their last three, it may have come many months ago. Still back such runners to avoid missing out on potentially lucrative wins. Buscador the other day was one such animal. He hadn't raced much of late but placed in 2nd at 16/1. That would have been a kick in the balls had it gone in! Today's qualifiers.... 2.10 Wolv - Dancing Deano - 5/1 Bet 365 2.40 Wolv - Autumn Morning (goes down as a CD winner on Sport Life even though last win came over 103 yards shoter, but I used Sport Life's CD definiations last time so sticking with them here even though, strictly speaking, he isn't a CD winner over this exact trip). 5/2 Bet 365 3.10 Wolv - Kheley 4/1 SJ 3.40 Wolv - Hold The Bucks 4/1 Bet 365/Mullitovermaurice 8/1 SJ A possible dilemma arises if two horses qualify in the same race, such as the 3.40 today. do you ignore the race completely or back both selections? Do you forecast the pair? I never really found out the best way to tackle such scenario's, but for the time being I will split 1 pt stakes and see how it goes, providing it is sensible to do at the odds. Some races where they may have four or five qualifiers may mean it is best to ignore the race altogether though. I'll calculate returns to advised stakes, SP and include the Tote place returns to see if backing to place proves more profitable.

[jtw1]

Re: Horses for Courses All-weather system Promising start FINTRON :ok 2 placed and a decent £3.70 return from Multiovermaurice , maybe concentrating on the outsider might be the way of the races with multiple qualifiers ??