Southwell 1/1/09

[fintron]

1.00 Southwell Hows She Cuttin was a very impressive winner here in November but Jamie Spencer is no longer in the saddle today and she is now running off a mark 9 lbs above her last win. At 2/1, I'm happy to oppose, especially since she's never won in this grade. Matsunosuke is next in the betting at double the odds but he's a hold up performer that is probably more effective on polytrack given his running style. Rebel Duke is a CD winner but he's never won outside of class 4 races, so bearing all that in mind my pick is Harry Up. Kevin Ryan's charge was in consistent form in late 2008 placing in a couple of sprints before landing a Wolverhampton handicap from Even Bolder and Yungaburra off a 5 lb lower mark. He is a sprinter without question and his front running style means if he can get a lead here, from an ideal draw down the centre, the others could be eating dirt come the finish. He is 1 lb above his highest ever winning mark and although that win came two years ago, recent efforts prove he is in good form. I don't think many of these are good enough for the grade and several look exposed so Harry Up could be worth chancing at the price. His 3rd to the Game reads as a decent bit of form as 2nd, Matsunosuke, won next time out and the winner himself is pretty useful. At these weights, Harry Up could reverse form with Matsunosuke, especially since this slow surface is likely to suit Harry Up better than that rival. 8/1 Blue Sq.

[RussP]

Re: Southwell 1/1/09 Ok, one bet for today so let's hope we can get off to a decent start. 3.45 Southwell Final race of the day and 14 runners going to post for this Class 6, 0-55 handicap over 1m. This looks a really open heat and any one of 3 or 4 could start favourite. Currently going 5/1 the field so plenty of potential EW options available. The 4 horse showing under 10/1 at present are Mrs Bun, Thornaby Green, Very Well Red and Louisiade, and it is from these that I will be concentrating on. The first one I'm overlooking is the top one Thornaby Green. In really good form at present but, despite being given chances by the handicapper, is struggling to get its head in front. 2 starts ago, finished 3rd off todays mark of 55 and was then dropped to 53 for its last run. 2nd that today but raised back up 2lb - I'm not keen on backing horses back up in weights without winning lto a cross goes through this one. Mrs Bun is showing as current fav but is another I will pass over. Won here 3 runs ago and was raised 5lb as a result to todays mark but 2 runs since, both here, have shown it to be a horse not to put maximum faith in. A no show when 13th of 14 and then finished a close up 3rd. Ok, that looks a good run but the horse seemed ungenuine, it's effort petered out when looking the winner and it hung left in the closing stages. Is capable of going close but quite a few question marks over this 5/1 shot, especially with the step up to a mile for the first time not certain to suit. Very Well Red comes from further down the handicap, racing off 50, under the excellent Chris Catlin. Personally, I think the trip is a furlong too far and it isn't particularly well handicapped. Dropped from 55 to just 48 for its return to the AW 4 starts ago but a run no better than midfield. Then ran in a claimer before a promising 2nd off 46 under todays jockey. Raised to this mark and hasn't shown anywhere near enough for me. Add to that a poor draw of 11 for this prominent racer and it's enough for me to ignore. This leaves us with one and the one I'm putting my faith in EW is: Louisiade (5pts EW @ 8/1 Stan James) - Things all look right for a big run for this course specialist. A horse that can ridden either prominently or be held up is drawn very well in box 5 and can get a good, early position just tucked in behind the leaders. Goes really well here at Southwell, has won 5 from 26 (placed another 8 times) and is 9 from 41 in all AW starts, a very good strike rate. The horse is 8yo now but still maintains some decent form and clearly handles its racing well. Since returning in Nov from a break, has raced 7 times, all on the AW and all here at Southwell. On first run back from 3 months off, finished 3rd off 62 in a Class 5 (races off 55 today). Then finished 4th over CD under a very poor ride in an apprentice race when keeping to the inside rail. Next 3 races, the horse ran poorly off 60, 59 and 57 but all over a trip too short of 7f. Then stepped back up to a mile 2 runs ago, and finished a much more promising 4th of 8 in a 0-65 contest, todays race is much easier. Lto, off 57 again, ran a good race over just 7f in 3rd, finishing well for pressure. Had a poor draw that day in 10 so this really inspires confidence today. Conditions have come right today, being dropped 2lb in spite of some good runs, in an easier race now 0-55 and having the best of the draw in 5. Has the assistance of Greg Fairley in the plate today, and the jockey has been firing in the winners recently, lets hope he can add to it today. Looks a nice 8/1 EW shot to start the New Year.