Cogge Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Ok, after that bad game from Willem in the middle of the week, I'm back with this weekends picks. It's a tight week/weekend with many large favorites playing at home, Eredivisie for example had 6 out of 8 games with home favorites below 1.9 in odds (I think). Anyway, without further ado, here's this weekend's picks! All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Saturday Lorient vs Monaco. Bet: Lorient @ 2.1 Toulouse vs Le Mans. Bet: Toulouse @ 1.87 Sunday Grenoble vs Valenciennes. Bet: Grenoble @ 2.26 Marseille vs Bordeaux. Bet: Marseille @ 2.24 Primera Division Sunday Getafe vs Espanyol. Bet: Getafe @ 1.92 Mallorca vs Deportivo. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.44 Malaga vs Almeria. Bet: Malaga @ 2.08 Serie A Sunday Cagliari vs Atalanta. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.04 Eredivisie Just including the Willem game here. For weekly stats instead. Tuesday - Two days ago. Willem II vs FC Volendam. Bet Willem II @ 1.73 :sad Premier League No bets found in Premier League this weekend Bundesliga Sunday Energie Cottbus vs Hannover. Bet: Energie @ 2.62 Liga Sagres Friday Leixoes vs Trofense. Bet: Leixoes @ 1.79 Sunday Naval vs Nacional. Bet: Naval @ 2.52 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo. Bet: Vitoria @ 2.27 Starting Bank: €173.482 Number of bets: 13 Stake per bet: €5 Total stake: €65 Bank after bets: €108.482 You might wonder why the starting bank is €173.482 when the Willem game was lost and bank ended up at €168.482... Well I've included the Willem game up there as a loss, so the starting bank for the week was €173.482... Will give a better view of how each week goes if I calculate everything at the end of each weeks matches :P :hope Anyway, wish me luck for the 12 bets that are still live! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsel05 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Bank: €173.832 Profit: +€73.832 Yield: 12.1% I wish you luck , very much luck :hope:hope:hope:hope i will bet on the 12 matches also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model [url=http://www.goalwin.net/] Ligue 1 Saturday Lorient vs Monaco. Bet: Lorient @ 2.1 :sad DRAW Toulouse vs Le Mans. Bet: Toulouse @ 1.87 :nana +€4.35 Sunday Grenoble vs Valenciennes. Bet: Grenoble @ 2.26 :sad DRAW Marseille vs Bordeaux. Bet: Marseille @ 2.24 :nana +€6.20 Primera Division Sunday Getafe vs Espanyol. Bet: Getafe @ 1.92 :sad DRAW Mallorca vs Deportivo. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.44 :sad DRAW Malaga vs Almeria. Bet: Malaga @ 2.08 :nana +€5.4 Serie A Sunday Cagliari vs Atalanta. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.04 :sad Eredivisie Just including the Willem game here. For weekly stats instead. Tuesday - Two days ago. Willem II vs FC Volendam. Bet Willem II @ 1.73 :sad Premier League No bets found in Premier League this weekend Bundesliga Sunday Energie Cottbus vs Hannover. Bet: Energie @ 2.62 :nana+€8.1 Liga Sagres Friday Leixoes vs Trofense. Bet: Leixoes @ 1.79 :nana+€3.95 Sunday Naval vs Nacional. Bet: Naval @ 2.52 :sad Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo. Bet: Vitoria @ 2.27 :nana+€6.35 Weekend Results: Starting bank: €173.482 Number of bets: 13 Stake per bet: €5 Total stake: €65 Bets won: 6 Bets lost: 7 Stake returned: €64.35 Weekend result: -€0.65 Bank after weekend: €172.832 Weekend Yield: -1% Total Staked: €668.5 Total Profit: +€72.832 Bets won: 47/87 Strike rate: 54% Yield: 10.9% Well, a break-even weekend pretty much. Too many draws imo, maybe I shopuld start betting DNB :P Oh well, better luck next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€72.832 Staked: €668.5 Yield: 10.9% Well marsel I guess you went plus since you didn't bet on Willem right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Oki, time for this weekend's picks! Ligue 1 Saturday Rennes vs Nancy. Bet: Rennes @ 1.75 Le Mans vs Nice. Bet: Le Mans @ 2.56 Sunday Sochaux vs Toulouse. Bet: Sochaux @ 2.6 Primera Division Saturday Deportivo vs Osasuna. Bet: Deportivo @ 2.04 Sunday Racing Santander vs Villarreal. Bet: Racing @ 2.46 Numancia vs Mallorca. Bet: Numancia @ 2.28 Almeria vs Valladolid. Bet: Almeria @ 2.1 Serie A Saturday Lazio vs torino. Bet: Lazio @ 1.69 Sunday Chievo vs Catania. Bet: Chievo @ 2.1 Cagliari vs Lecce. Bet: Cagliari @ 1.81 Eredivisie Saturday Nac Breda vs Roda JC. Bet: Nac @ 2.16 Premier League No bets found in Premier League this weekend Bundesliga Saturday Cologne vs Karlsruher. Bet: Cologne @ 1.95 Liga Sagres Friday Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes. Bet: Nacional @ 2.3 Saturday Maritimo vs Amadora. Bet: Maritimo @ 1.85 Weekend bets: Starting bank: €172.832 Number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €8 (~5% of bank) Total stake: €112 Bank after Bets: €60.832 All bets placed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsel05 Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€72.832 Staked: €668.5 Yield: 10.9% yes i am in plus , i placed till now 27 bets, won 15, lost 12 placed 135 euro get 159.85 euro, that min profit 24.85 euro or 18.4% :cheers :cheers :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorzak Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€72.832 Staked: €668.5 Yield: 10.9% Cogge I see ur doing a very good job here congrats :clap I was just wondering...that Glicko rating system that u use.. Do u somehow implement those ratings in team values before u run the poisson calculator (and how if you do) or do u run the calculator first and then adjust the odds accordingly(how)? Any help would be appriceated ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€72.832 Staked: €668.5 Yield: 10.9% Cogge I see ur doing a very good job here congrats :clap I was just wondering...that Glicko rating system that u use.. Do u somehow implement those ratings in team values before u run the poisson calculator (and how if you do) or do u run the calculator first and then adjust the odds accordingly(how)? Any help would be appriceated ;) I run the poisson and glick independently and weigh them together to produce the final odds. (50/50) and after that comes the rest of the model :P I calculate odds from the glick rating and I calculate odds from the poisson and then weigh them together. For example if the glick rating says the home team win probability is 45% and the poisson says it's 50%, the model puts it at 47.5% and then move on to the next steps. Hope that clears it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€72.832 Staked: €668.5 Yield: 10.9% All bets placed now. Also added a 13th bet on Maritimo in Liga Sagres (Portugal, Superliga)... and a 14th on Nac Breda in Eredivisie. :hope Wish me luck! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Ligue 1 Saturday Rennes vs Nancy. Bet: Rennes @ 1.75 :wall DRAW Le Mans vs Nice. Bet: Le Mans @ 2.56 :wall Sunday Sochaux vs Toulouse. Bet: Sochaux @ 2.6 :wall Primera Division Saturday Deportivo vs Osasuna. Bet: Deportivo @ 2.04 :wall DRAW Sunday Racing Santander vs Villarreal. Bet: Racing @ 2.46 :wall DRAW Numancia vs Mallorca. Bet: Numancia @ 2.28 :wall Almeria vs Valladolid. Bet: Almeria @ 2.1 :nana+€8.8 Serie A Saturday Lazio vs torino. Bet: Lazio @ 1.69 :wall DRAW Sunday Chievo vs Catania. Bet: Chievo @ 2.1 :wall DRAW Cagliari vs Lecce. Bet: Cagliari @ 1.81 :nana+€6.48 Eredivisie Saturday Nac Breda vs Roda JC. Bet: Nac @ 2.16 :nana+€9.28 Premier League No bets found in Premier League this weekend Bundesliga Saturday Cologne vs Karlsruher. Bet: Cologne @ 1.95 :wall DRAW Liga Sagres Friday Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes. Bet: Nacional @ 2.3 :nana+€10.56 Saturday Maritimo vs Amadora. Bet: Maritimo @ 1.85 :nana +€6.96 Weekend bets: Starting bank: €172.832 Number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €8 (~5% of bank) Total stake: €112 Bets won: 5 Bets Lost: 9 Money returned: 82.08 Result: -29.92 Yield: -26% Bank after weekend: 142.912 Total Staked: €780.5 Total Profit: +€42.912 Bets won: 52/101 Strike rate: 51.5% Yield: 5.5% Wow, shitty weekend. Waaay too many draws this weekend. Oh well, dig deep and lets hope for some better results next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 17, 2009 Author Share Posted February 17, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Here's this weekend's initial picks, might be adding some more during the week. All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Lorient v Sochaux. Bet: Lorient @ 2.1 Toulouse v Valenciennes. Bet: Toulouse @ 1.75 Lille v Monaco. Bet: Lille @ 1.69 Nice v Rennes. Bet: Nice @ 2.76 Primera Division Villarreal v Gijon. Bet: Villarreal @ 1.65 Mallorca v Racing. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.5 Deportivo v Valencia. Bet: Deportivo @ 2.39 Valladolid v Malaga. Bet: Valladolid @ 2.25 Serie A No bets found yet. Eredivisie No bets found yet. Premier League Stoke v Portsmouth. Bet: Stoke @ 2.52 Arsenal v Sunderland. Bet: Arsenal @ 1.44 Bundesliga No bets found yet. Liga Sagres Academica v Maritimo. Bet: Academica @ 2.48 Estrela v Nacional. Bet: Estrela @ 2.48 Starting Bank: €142.912 Number of bets: 12 Stake per bet: €7 Total stake: €84 Bank after bets: €58.912 :hope Wish me luck! :hope Edit (Wednesday): Added two more bets, Nice v Rennes and Arsenal v Sunderland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Here's this weekend's initial picks, might be adding some more during the week. All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Lorient v Sochaux. Bet: Lorient @ 2.1 :sad Toulouse v Valenciennes. Bet: Toulouse @ 1.75 :sad Lille v Monaco. Bet: Lille @ 1.69 :nana+€4.83 Nice v Rennes. Bet: Nice @ 2.76 :sad Primera Division Villarreal v Gijon. Bet: Villarreal @ 1.65:nana+€4.55 Mallorca v Racing. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.5:nana+€10.5 Deportivo v Valencia. Bet: Deportivo @ 2.39 :sad Valladolid v Malaga. Bet: Valladolid @ 2.25 :sad Serie A No bets found yet. Eredivisie No bets found yet. Premier League Stoke v Portsmouth. Bet: Stoke @ 2.52 :sad Arsenal v Sunderland. Bet: Arsenal @ 1.44 :sad Bundesliga No bets found yet. Liga Sagres Academica v Maritimo. Bet: Academica @ 2.48:nana+€10.36 Estrela v Nacional. Bet: Estrela @ 2.48 :nana+€10.36 Starting Bank: €142.912 Number of bets: 12 Stake per bet: €7 Total stake: €84 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 7 Returned: €75.6 Result: -€8.4 Yield: -10% Bank after weekend: €134.512 Total Staked: €864.5 Total Profit: +€34.512 Bets won: 57/113 Strike rate: 50.4% Yield: 4% Another bad weekend, oh well. Better luck next weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
humblecooper Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€34.512 Staked: €864.5 Yield: 4% System looks interesting I wonder why you are not usign MLE estimation to determine your poisson parameters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Digging in again and pulling out this weekend's initial picks, might be adding some more during the week. All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Nantes v Grenoble. bet: Nantes @ 2.14 Auxerre v Toulouse. Bet: Auxerre @ 2.48 Primera Division Gijon v Mallorca. Bet: Gijon @ 2.3 Betis v Villarreal. Bet: Betis @ 2.48 Bilbao v Sevilla. Bet: Bilbao @ 2.8 Serie A Cagliari v Torino. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.00 Juventus v Napoli. Bet: Juventus @ 1.63 Eredivisie No bets found yet. Premier League West Ham v Man C. Bet: West Ham @ 2.56 Bundesliga Bochum v Energie. Bet: Bochum @ 2.00 Dortmund v Hoffenheim. Bet: Dortmund @ 2.36 Hertha v Mönchen. Bet: Hertha @ 1.57 Liga Sagres Maritimo v Vitoria Setubal. Bet: Maritimo @ 1.67 Starting Bank: €134.512 Number of bets: 12 Stake per bet: €6 Total stake: €72 Bank after bets: €62.512 :hope Wish me luck! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€34.512 Staked: €864.5 Yield: 4% System looks interesting I wonder why you are not usign MLE estimation to determine your poisson parameters? I haven't looked into MLE that much. However, there's the problem of independence. This problem occurs in the double poisson as well. Matches aren't independent, Goals aren't independent. For example, a teams past performance plays a role in the outcome of the next match, just as if one team scores in a game, the likelihood of the other team scoring is generally higher (coach may choose to do an early substitution etc...). I'm not saying it can't be done, or that it shouldn't be done. I just haven't looked into MLE enough to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
humblecooper Posted February 25, 2009 Share Posted February 25, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€34.512 Staked: €864.5 Yield: 4% To overcome this you can exponentially downweight historical outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€34.512 Staked: €864.5 Yield: 4% I do downweight historical outcomes, the more recent the more weight I put on the outcomes when calculating the goal averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Ligue 1 Nantes v Grenoble. bet: Nantes @ 2.14 :sad DRAW Auxerre v Toulouse. Bet: Auxerre @ 2.48 :sad DRAW Primera Division Gijon v Mallorca. Bet: Gijon @ 2.3 :sad Betis v Villarreal. Bet: Betis @ 2.48:sad Bilbao v Sevilla. Bet: Bilbao @ 2.8:sad Serie A Cagliari v Torino. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.00 :sad Juventus v Napoli. Bet: Juventus @ 1.63 :nana +€3.78 Eredivisie No bets found yet. Premier League West Ham v Man C. Bet: West Ham @ 2.56 :nana +€9.36 Bundesliga Bochum v Energie. Bet: Bochum @ 2.00 :nana +€6 Dortmund v Hoffenheim. Bet: Dortmund @ 2.36 :sad Hertha v Mönchen. Bet: Hertha @ 1.57 :nana +€3.42 Liga Sagres Maritimo v Vitoria Setubal. Bet: Maritimo @ 1.67 :nana +€4.02 Starting Bank: €134.512 Number of bets: 12 Bets won: 5 Bets lost: 7 Stake per bet: €6 Total stake: €72 Stake returned: €56.58 Weekend result: -€15.42 Weekend Yield: -21% Bank after weekend: €119.092 Total Staked: €936.5 Total Profit: +€19.092 Bets won: 62/125 Strike rate: 49.6% Yield: 2% Yet another pissy weekend. Four weekends in a row now with losses. Time for a turnaround imo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Here's this weekend picks. Lets hope for a turnaround now. Back to green! Ligue 1 Lille v Lyon. Bet: Lille @ 2.8 Grenoble v Caen. Bet: Grenoble @ 2.34 Marseille v Valenciennes. Bet: Marseille @ 1.55 St Etienne v Nantes. Bet: St Etienne @ 1.88 Le Havre v Sochaux. Bet: Le Havre @ 2.94 Primera Division Mallorca v Betis. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.3 Recreativo v Valladolid. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.34 Serie A Roma v Udinese. Bet: Roma @ 1.9 Chievo v Cagliari. Bet: Chievo @ 2.28 Catania v Siena. Bet: Catania @ 2.18 Fiorentina v Palermo. Bet: Fiorentina @ 1.68 Eredivisie De Graafschap v Heracles. Bet: De Graafschap @ 2.46 Premier League Sunderland v Tottenham. Bet: Sunderland @ 2.8 Bundesliga Hoffenheim v Bremen. Bet: Hoffenheim @ 2.84 Wolfsburg v Karlsruher. Bet: Wolfsburg @ 1.42 Liga Sagres Rio Ave v Maritimo. Bet: Rio Ave @ 2.8 Vitoria Setubal v Nacional. Bet: Vitoria @ 2.93 Starting Bank: €119.092 Number of bets: 17 Stake per bet: €6 Total stake: €102 Bank after bets: €7.092 Lots of bets this weekend. Wish me luck :P :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Here's this weekend picks. Lets hope for a turnaround now. Back to green! Ligue 1 Lille v Lyon. Bet: Lille @ 2.8 Win +€10.8 Grenoble v Caen. Bet: Grenoble @ 2.34 Win +€8.04 Marseille v Valenciennes. Bet: Marseille @ 1.55 Lost Draw St Etienne v Nantes. Bet: St Etienne @ 1.88 Win +€5.28 Le Havre v Sochaux. Bet: Le Havre @ 2.94 Win +€11.64 Primera Division Mallorca v Betis. Bet: Mallorca @ 2.3 Lost Recreativo v Valladolid. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.34 Lost Serie A Roma v Udinese. Bet: Roma @ 1.9 Lost Draw Chievo v Cagliari. Bet: Chievo @ 2.28 Lost Catania v Siena. Bet: Catania @ 2.18 Lost Fiorentina v Palermo. Bet: Fiorentina @ 1.68 Lost Eredivisie De Graafschap v Heracles. Bet: De Graafschap @ 2.46 Win +€8.76 Premier League Sunderland v Tottenham. Bet: Sunderland @ 2.8 Lost Draw Bundesliga Hoffenheim v Bremen. Bet: Hoffenheim @ 2.84 Lost Draw Wolfsburg v Karlsruher. Bet: Wolfsburg @ 1.42 Win +€2.42 Liga Sagres Rio Ave v Maritimo. Bet: Rio Ave @ 2.8 Lost DRAW Vitoria Setubal v Nacional. Bet: Vitoria @ 2.93 Win +€11.58 Starting Bank: €119.092 Number of bets: 17 Stake per bet: €6 Total stake: €102 Bets won: 7 Bets lost: 10 Total Returned: €100.52 Weekend Result: -€1.48 Weekend Yield: -1.4% Bank after weekend: €117.612 Total Staked: €1038.5 Total Profit: +€17.612 Bets won: 69/142 Strike rate: 48.6% Yield: 1.7% Another poor weekend, a few 90 min equalizers that ruined it. Oh well, better luck next weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Soccer Prediction Model Here's this weekend picks. Lets hope for a turnaround now. Back to green! Ligue 1 PSG v Marseille. Bet: PSG @ 2.3 Valenciennes v Le Havre. Bet: Valenciennes @ 1.71 Primera Division Valencia v Recreativo. Bet: Valencia @ 1.89 Betis v Osasuna. Bet: Betis @ 2.16 Serie A Cagliari v Genoa. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.4 Udinese v Catania. Bet: Udinese @ 1.89 Reggina v Napoli. Bet: Reggina @ 2.74 Eredivisie Heracles v Volendam. Bet: Heracles @ 1.86 Premier League Middlesbrough v Portsmouth. Bet: Middlesbrough @ 2.14 Chelsea v Man C. Bet: Chelsea @ 1.44 Bundesliga Hertha v Bayern Leverkusen. Bet: Hertha @ 2.34 Liga Sagres No bets found. Starting Bank: €117.612 Number of bets: 11 Stake per bet: €6 Total stake: €66 Bank after placed bets: €51.612 Model also pushed out great value in laying Bayern Munchen in their game against Bochum. But since Bayern are away and favorites the system wont allow the bet. :P :hope Wish me luck :hope Edit: It is 11 bets, not 12 :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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