Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€19.092 Staked: €936.5 Yield: 2%

[Cogge]

Stumbled across this forum by coincidence and since this is "the world's best betting forum" I figured this would be a great place to try out my soccer prediction model and get some useful feedback. My model uses only statistics and available information as input. A flaw in the model is that it is unable (for now) to take in abscent players into it's calculations. Anyway, this is how it works: 1. Uses a Bivariat Poisson distribution curve to assess correct score and calculates Three-way odds according to it. The two variables used is the home team's scoring capability (Average scoring rate at home together with the away team's conceded goals while away, this and last years seasons) and the away team's scoring capability (Average scoring rate while away etc...) 2. Uses a Glick rating system to determine the rating of each team in the league. Then uses the rating difference between the two teams to determine the probability of a home win/away win. (This is based on statistical data, i.e. when two teams with this difference met what was the outcome.) 3. Trend Analysis. Looking at the last 4 matches played by each team and adjusts the odds depending on which team has the best outcomes (i.e. if they are on a roll or not.) 4. Match ups. Looks at the last 4 matches these teams have played against eachother and adjusts the odds according to which team seem to have the edge. 5. Distance. It's a well-known fact that home team advantage can be quite high. This home team advantage generally goes up depending on how far the team has travelled (due to player fatigue / fewer fans cheering their favorite team on etc...). This is why Derbies have a lot lower home team advantage. Anyway, the model determines how far the away team has travelled, compares it with the average distance travelled in the leage and adjusts the odds accordingly. 6. Top team / New teams. Since all of the above are based on generalizations, one needs to account to the differing in top team performance and "bottom" team performance. If a top team or a new team is present in the match up then the odds are adjusted accordingly. These odds have been tested on data from EPL/SerieA/Bundesliga/Ligue1/LigaSagres/PrimeraDivision/Eredivisie from the past 7 years and it seems to be performing quite well at setting odds. So to the true testing of the model. Each week I will run the model and take out a certain number of matches where the model predicts the home favorite odds much lower than the bookies (i.e. where the model tells me there's value to bet on the favorite). I'll run the model on these 7 top leagues and hopefully pull out around 10-15 bets each week. This would be a great place to use Kelly staking, but I'll settle with Level staking and use. I'll bet the entire bank roll each week and split it evenly across the bets. Starting with €100. I'll be using odds from Goalwin as I've found that they usually have rather nice odds and low overround on these higher leagues. Wish me luck :P ---------------------- Below will be edited after each round / weekend ------------------------------ Outcome so far Total Staked: €936.5 Total Profit: +€19.092 Bets won: 62/125 Strike rate: 49.6% Yield: 2%

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets Bundesliga Hertha vs Karlsruher. Bet: Hertha @ 1.65 Werder vs Wolfsburg. Bet: Werder @ 2.16 Ligue 1 Valenciennes vs Monaco. Bet: Valenciennes @ 2.68 Nice vs Lille. Bet: Nice @ 2.64 Sochaux vs Caen. Bet: Sochaux @ 2.22 Nancy vs Grenoble. Bet: Nancy @ 2.02 Primera Division Malaga vs Numancia Bet: Malaga @ 1.89 Recreativo vs Osasuna. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.4 Sevilla vs Villarreal. Bet: Sevilla @ 2.08 Premier League Sunderland vs West brom. Bet: Sunderland @ 2.12 Portsmouth vs Newcastle. Bet: Portsmouth @ 2.12 Eredivisie Identified Heracles vs Sparta as having a small value, but not high enough to make the list. Serie A Fiorentina vs Catania. Bet: Fiorentina @ 1.5 Reggina vs Sampdoria. Bet: Reggina @ 2.6 Palermo vs Siena. Bet: Palermo @ 1.86 Liga Sagres No bets found. Total number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €7 Total stake: €98 Bank after bets placed: €2. :hope

[Rushian]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Best of luck Cogge! I'll be watching with interest as there are some ideas in your original that I am similarly implementing in my system for the English Leagues... It would be interesting to see if common picks (for the premiership) are highlighted...

[Mydogdylan]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Good luck with this but i'm not sure about your staking plan

I'll bet the entire bank roll each week and split it evenly across the bets. Starting with €100.

:unsure

[Smokin Joe]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Looks like a nice idea Cogge. What is the Glick ratings system? I have never heard of it, and it would appear that Mr Google knows no more about it than I do.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model

Looks like a nice idea Cogge. What is the Glick ratings system? I have never heard of it, and it would appear that Mr Google knows no more about it than I do.

It's called Glicko, typo on my part :P http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/glicko/ It's like Elo (chess rating system that has been used for ages to rate chess players) but a bit more advanced.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets Bundesliga Hertha vs Karlsruher. Bet: Hertha @ 1.65 :nana +€4.55 Werder vs Wolfsburg. Bet: Werder @ 2.16 :nana +€8.12 Total Staked: €14 Total Profit: +€12.67 Bets won: 2/2 Strike rate: 100% Yield: +90.5% Ligue 1 Valenciennes vs Monaco. Bet: Valenciennes @ 2.68 :nana +€11.76 Nice vs Lille. Bet: Nice @ 2.64 :sad-€7 Sochaux vs Caen. Bet: Sochaux @ 2.22 Draw :( Good comeback from Sochaux though from a 0-2 to 2-2. :sad -€7 Nancy vs Grenoble. Bet: Nancy @ 2.02 :nana +€7.14 Total Staked: €28 Total Profit: +€4.9 Bets won: 2/4 Strike rate: 50% Yield: +17.5% Primera Division Malaga vs Numancia Bet: Malaga @ 1.89 :nana +€6.23 Recreativo vs Osasuna. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.4 :nana+€9.8 Sevilla vs Villarreal. Bet: Sevilla @ 2.08 :nana+£7.56 Total Staked: €21 Total Profit: +€23.59 Bets won: 3/3 Strike rate: 100% Yield: +112.3% Premier League Sunderland vs West brom. Bet: Sunderland @ 2.12 :nana +€7.84 Portsmouth vs Newcastle. Bet: Portsmouth @ 2.12 :sad -€7 Total Staked: €14 Total Profit: +€0.84 Bets won: 1/2 Strike rate: 50% Yield: +6% Eredivisie Identified Heracles vs Sparta as having a small value, but not high enough to make the list. :clap Heracles won, but no bet for me... Always stick to your system! Serie A Fiorentina vs Catania. Bet: Fiorentina @ 1.5 :nana +€3.5 Reggina vs Sampdoria. Bet: Reggina @ 2.6 :sad -€7 Palermo vs Siena. Bet: Palermo @ 1.86 :nana +€6.2 Total Staked: €21 Total Profit: +€2.7 Bets won: 2/3 Strike rate: 66.66% Yield: +12.8% Liga Sagres No bets found. Total number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €7 Total stake: €98 Bank after bets placed: €2. Total Staked: €98 Total Profit: +€44.7 Bets won: 10/14 Strike rate: 71.4% Yield: +45.6% Well, a good start if I can say so myself Bank after this weekend: €144.7 Next weekend's picks should be up early this week, although since odds tend to go up as the weekend pass I'm prolly gonna put my bets and add the odds late this week.

[Smokin Joe]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model

It's called Glicko, typo on my part :P http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/glicko/ It's like Elo (chess rating system that has been used for ages to rate chess players) but a bit more advanced.

Cogge, there will sure be some information in there to digest!!! Would it be possible that you would have an example spreadsheet in place that you would be willing to share, showing how the Glicko rating is calculated? Ta SJ

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model I'm a computer programmer so I use code instead of excel to calculate everything. It's quite hard to explain if you aren't a math-geek :P. If you are a math-geek you can read this example. It goes through step by step how to do it. http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/glicko/glicko2.doc/example.html

[yavel]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This seems to me complicated. Have a look also at www.sportbooksguide.com.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model

This seems to me complicated. Have a look also at www.sportbooksguide.com.

Why? It's shite:ok

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model

This seems to me complicated. Have a look also at www.sportbooksguide.com.

I just skimmed through that page and then I got to the: "How is this possible? It is due to probability of TWO consequent matches. How many times you will have two consequent matches loose? This probability is equal to (1/3)*(1/3)=(1/9)=0.11!!! Be patient and apply for fictive bets and wait for their results. Then place your real bets. It takes longer but you are sure to earn money and YOU WILL BE BETTER THEN BOOKMAKERS!!! :-)" In case there's some of you that don't know this, it is know as the "Gambler's Fallacy". From wikipedia: The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.^[1] Such an event is often referred to as being "due". This is an informal fallacy. Which is exactly what the roulette "system" of "if a color comes up 3 times in a row... bet on the opposite color and if you lose double the stake etc etc..." wants you to do.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Going to be editing the first post after each weekend from now on and post the current result of the system.

[Grex]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Excellent results so far, Cogge :clap I'm not a computer programmer (Excel is about my limit), so I won't even pretend to understand the "mathematics" behind your system.... but if the positive results continue, I shall certainly follow your thread with interest. By the way, you will get into trouble with the Moderators if, as you suggested in your last post, you plan to publish your results by editing the initial post.... the "rules" say you should copy the original post, insert the results and re-publish.... just a word of friendly advice. :ok Good luck for the future, Cogge.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model

Excellent results so far, Cogge :clap I'm not a computer programmer (Excel is about my limit), so I won't even pretend to understand the "mathematics" behind your system.... but if the positive results continue, I shall certainly follow your thread with interest. By the way, you will get into trouble with the Moderators if, as you suggested in your last post, you plan to publish your results by editing the initial post.... the "rules" say you should copy the original post, insert the results and re-publish.... just a word of friendly advice. :ok Good luck for the future, Cogge.

I will only edit the first post with the current bank and yield and so on. The first post only contains how the system works, no picks what so ever. I believe "after-editing" only applies to actually editing posts with picks in it, to avoid people faking positive results. My editing is so that people can see how the system is doing without actually searching through the last posts of the thread. :P Hopefully the streak can continue, prolly going to be fewer picks this weekend though, with both Eredivisie and Bundesliga on pause. Planning to extend this model to cover The Championship and League 1 as well, involves a few analysis of massive statistic data so it's put a bit on hold atm :P Btw does anyone know why Man U is playing their round 18 match against Wigan on Jan 14?

[tomahawk1984]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Good work so far. Hope results continue to go your way.

Btw does anyone know why Man U is playing their round 18 match against Wigan on Jan 14?

I think they're playing in that World Club Championship thingy. Same competition that caused them to pull out of the FA cup a few years ago.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets All odds are from Goalwin Bundesliga Not playing Ligue 1 Grenoble vs Le Mans. Bet: Grenoble @ €2.56 Nantes vs Sochaux. Bet: Nantes @ €2.3 Marseille vs Nancy. Bet: Marseille @ €1.62 Primera Division Real Madrid vs Valencia. Bet: Real Madrid @ €1.99 Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao. Bet: Real Betis @ €2.2 Deportivo La Coruña vs Recreativo Huelva. Bet: Deportivo @ €1.8 Racing Santander vs Malaga. Bet: Racing @ €2.14 Premier League Fulham vs Middlesbrough. Bet: Fulham @ €2.18 Newcastle vs Tottenham. Bet: Newcastle @ €2.56 Eredivisie Roda vs Groningen. Bet: Roda @ €2.36 Serie A Lecce vs Bologna. Bet: Lecce @ €2.16 Cagliari vs Reggina. Bet: Cagliari @ €1.79 Liga Sagres Belenenses vs Trofense. Bet: Belenenses @ €1.79 Benfica vs Nacional. Bet: Benfica @ €1.39 Bets have now been placed at these odds. Total number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €10 Total stake: €140 Bank after bets: €4.7

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model :hope Bets placed :hope

[Mydogdylan]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Good luck on this. :hope

[ferrari jack]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Hi im following you on this but trying to get a perm to cover the 14 matches i found this perm but its only for 5 20p x 5 singles = £1 10p x 10 doubles = £1 10p x 10 trebles = £1 20p x 5 4folds = £1 50p x 1 5fold = 50p 31 bets £4.50 I think if you can cover this the winnings will be a lot greater. excellent success on last results 10 from 14.

[Wumpking]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Good luck for this weekend Cogge. Your system looks very interesting. ferrari jack - to cover the 14 matches in perms is huge. If my maths are right it would be: 14 fold x 1 13 fold x 14 12 fold x 91 11 fold x 364 10 fold x 1001 9 fold x 2002 8 fold x 3003 7 fold x 3432 6 fold x 3003 5 fold x 2002 4 fold x 1001 trebles x 364 doubles x 91 Even at small stakes the outlay would be massive

[ferrari jack]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Hi yeah, i think your right, but maybe do a perm with just 7 selections and i can do 2 perms with the 14 results How would i write it out on a betting slip for a seven selection perm thanx

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model I would advice people to be a bit more careful when using my picks. Just because last week was a success doesn't mean that this weekend will be good too :P Just a friendly advice, wait a few more weeks and if this shows promise then... Go for it and bet hehe.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets All odds are from Goalwin Bundesliga Not playing Ligue 1 Grenoble vs Le Mans. Bet: Grenoble @ +€21.84 :nana Nantes vs Sochaux. Bet: Nantes @ -€14 :sad Marseille vs Nancy. Bet: Marseille @ -€14 :sad Primera Division Real Madrid vs Valencia. Bet: Real Madrid @ +€13.86 :nana Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao. Bet: Real Betis @ -€14 :sad Deportivo La Coruña vs Recreativo Huelva. Bet: Deportivo @ +€11.2 :nana Racing Santander vs Malaga. Bet: Racing @ -€14 :sad Premier League Fulham vs Middlesbrough. Bet: Fulham @ +€16.5 :nana Newcastle vs Tottenham. Bet: Newcastle @ +€21.84 :nana Eredivisie Roda vs Groningen. Bet: Roda @ -€14 :sad Serie A Lecce vs Bologna. Bet: Lecce @ -€14 :sad Cagliari vs Reggina. Bet: Cagliari @ -€14 :sad Liga Sagres Belenenses vs Trofense. Bet: Belenenses @ +€11.06 :nana Benfica vs Nacional. Bet: Benfica @ -€14 Bets have now been placed at these odds. Weekend Stake: €140 Weekend Profit: -€15.7 Weekend Bets won: 6/14 Weekend Strike rate: 42.8% Weekend Yield: -11.2% Bank after 14/14 bets settled: €133.7 Total Staked: €228 Total Profit: +€19.7 Bets won: 16/28 Strike rate: 57.1% Yield: +8.6% Will prolly be throwing out some bets during the week on EPL if the model finds any value bets.

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Hi again every, didn't fin any bets during the Christmas break but now I'm back after a vacation to Egypt. I've found some bets for this weekend and hopefully the last weekend's poor result can be turned around. Current Bank: €133.7 This weekend's bets All odds are from Goalwin Bundesliga Not playing Ligue 1 Rennes vs Grenoble. Bet: Rennes @ 1.6 Bordeaux vs Paris SG. Bet: Bordeaux @ 2 Nancy vs Nice. Bet: Nancy @ 2.22 Monaco vs Nantes. Bet: Monaco @ 2 Primera Division Racing Santander vs Recreativo Huelva. Bet: Racing Santander @ 1.96 Espanyol vs Almeria. Bet: Espanyol @ 2.14 English Premier League Newcastle vs West Ham. Bet: Newcastle @ 2.24 Fulham vs Blackburn. Bet: Fulham @ 2.14 Wigan vs Tottenham. Bet: Wigan @ 2.60 Eredivisie Not playing Serie A Palermo vs Atalanta Bet: Palermo @ 2.04 Liga Sagres Pacos Ferreira vs Nacional. Bet: Pacos F. @ 2.45 Number of bets: 11 Stake per bet: €12 Total stake: €132 Bank after bets placed: €1.7 :hope Wish me luck! :hope

[Wumpking]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Good luck for the weekend Cogge

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets All odds are from Goalwin Bundesliga Not playing Ligue 1 Rennes vs Grenoble. Bet: Rennes @ 1.6 :nana +€7.8 Bordeaux vs Paris SG. Bet: Bordeaux @ 2 :nana +€12 Nancy vs Nice. Bet: Nancy @ 2.22 Postponed. Bet voided. Monaco vs Nantes. Bet: Monaco @ 2 :sad -€12 Primera Division Racing Santander vs Recreativo Huelva. Bet: Racing Santander @ 1.96 :sad -€12 Espanyol vs Almeria. Bet: Espanyol @ 2.14 :sad -€12 English Premier League Newcastle vs West Ham. Bet: Newcastle @ 2.24 :sad -€12 Fulham vs Blackburn. Bet: Fulham @ 2.14 Postponed. Bet voided. Wigan vs Tottenham. Bet: Wigan @ 2.60 :nana +€20.8 Eredivisie Not playing Serie A Palermo vs Atalanta Bet: Palermo @ 2.04 :nana +€13.52 Liga Sagres Pacos Ferreira vs Nacional. Bet: Pacos F. @ 2.45 :sad-€12 Stake per bet: €12 Total Staked: €132 Total Returned: €126.12 Bank after this weekend: €127.82 Total Staked: €360 Total Profit: +€27.82 Bets won: 20/37 Well, another semi-bad weekend. Maybe next time all games are played :P

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model After two slow weekends with a small negative trend it's time to get back into the groove. Here's this weekends bets: All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Toulouse vs Nancy. Bet: Toulouse @ 2.12 Nice vs Auxerre. Bet: Nice @ 2 Lorient vs Valenciennes. Bet: Lorient @ 1.93 Caen vs Monaco. Bet: Caen @ 2.2 Primera Division Recreativo vs Sporting Gijon. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.22 Valladolid vs Real Betis. Bet: Valladolid @ 2.08 Malaga vs Espanyol. Bet: Malaga @ 1.85 Serie A Siena vs Reggina. Bet: Siena @ 1.86 Catania vs Bologna. Bet: Catania @ 2.04 Lecce vs Genoa. Bet: Lecce @ 2.64 Sampdoria vs Palermo. Bet: Sampdoria @ 2.04 Cagliari vs Udinese. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.32 Eredivisie Heerenveen vs Feyenoord. Bet: Heerenveen @ 2.07 Premier League No bets this weekend. Bundesliga Does not play this weekend. Total number of bets: 13 Insats per bet: €9.5 Totalt satsat: €123.5 Bank after bets: €4.32 :hope Wish me luck :P :hope

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model All odds are from Goalwin Ligue 1 Toulouse vs Nancy. Bet: Toulouse @ 2.12 :nana+€10.472 Nice vs Auxerre. Bet: Nice @ 2 :nana+€9.5 Lorient vs Valenciennes. Bet: Lorient @ 1.93 :sad-€9.5 Caen vs Monaco. Bet: Caen @ 2.2 :sad-€9.5 Primera Division Recreativo vs Sporting Gijon. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.22 :nana+€11.59 Valladolid vs Real Betis. Bet: Valladolid @ 2.08 :sad -€9.5 Malaga vs Espanyol. Bet: Malaga @ 1.85 :nana+€8.075 Serie A Siena vs Reggina. Bet: Siena @ 1.86 :nana+€8.17 Catania vs Bologna. Bet: Catania @ 2.04 :sad -€9.5 Lecce vs Genoa. Bet: Lecce @ 2.64 :sad -€9.5 Sampdoria vs Palermo. Bet: Sampdoria @ 2.04 :sad -€9.5 Cagliari vs Udinese. Bet: Cagliari @ 2.32 :nana +€12.54 Eredivisie Heerenveen vs Feyenoord. Bet: Heerenveen @ 2.07 :nana +€10.165 Premier League No bets this weekend. Bundesliga Does not play this weekend. Weekend Result: Amount Bet: €123.5 Weekend Return: €137.012 Yield: 10.9% Bank after weekend: €141.332 Total Staked: €483.5 Total Profit: +€41.332 Bets won: 27/50 Yield: 8.5%

[Zoroaster]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model Very interesting mate. I'll keep up to date with this. Don't you think stakes of up to 10% of your total bank is a little risky? Ten losses in a row and you're down to zero ...