Spooner Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 ...or not. Selections in here. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Ha, you can't beat good old Wolver. All the favs coming in and the quadpot paying out at less than a tenner :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 6.20 Wolverhampton At the weights the ones that drew my attention were One More Round and Bishopbriggs, both racing off the same mark as from their last win, and two that are potentially well treated on the pick of their form are Caustic Wit and Nautical. Richelieu is another that could have claims based on weight alone - he's only 4 lb higher than from when recording his win at Laytown. One More Round is one in my notebook. He came flying home over course and distance two runs ago to score on his debut for David Evans, but he failed to follow up and flopped last time out at Kempton when stepped up to 6f running under a penalty. He goes off 65 today so is 27 lbs lower than his highest ever winning mark and is running off the same mark as when he won here recently. Matthew Lawson (who rode a winner last night at Great Leighs) also claims 5 lbs to give him a chance. The problem facing punters in this race is deciding whether the race is likely to be run at a good pace. There is a lack of front runners in the line-up and Bishopbriggs, who made all to win here back in June, has a poor draw and is not certain to get an uncontested lead. Even if he does break well and hit the rail early, he will have wasted energy in the opening stages and could be looking vulnerable late on. It is worth noting that he was drawn in a similar position when second here recently, but aside from Bishopbriggs, this race looks very much like Newcastle United - it has leadership issues, and I'm looking for one that possesses a turn of foot to win the race late on. One More Round displayed such a quality over course and distance two runs ago and for that reason is my pick here. Richeliu's past course form tempers enthusiasm despite a handy looking mark. Caustic Wit is a staggering 37 lbs lower than his highest ever winning handicap mark, but he's finished unplaced off 57 and 56 lately and even a further 1 lb drop in the handicap isn't certain to bring about improvement for this 33/1 shot. Nautical has won off 14 lbs higher previously in his career and is only 1 lb above his last winning mark, but he has something to prove after finishing 10th in recent starts off 60 and 58. One More Round 5/2 Bet 365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 6.50 Wolverhampton The presence of 62-rated Bluebell Ridge in the line-up means three of these race from out of the handicap and it looks a bit of a minefield. Bluebell Ridge picked up a handicap last time out off 4 lb lower over slightly shorter at Kempton and heads the betting. She is open to further improvement but drifted badly across the track last time and flashed her tail. Augustus John looks quite interesting. He's earned himself a bit of a bridesmaid tag and has been frustrating to follow having earned four seconds in a row earlier in his career. He remains unexposed though and ran respectably at Great leighs last time out behind Alonso de Guzman and Garrulous. Zuwaar finished second to Veloso in a seller two runs back but showed improved form to finish second to the unexposed Irish Raider Laurel Creek last time out here. He is yet to score outside of maiden company, but handled the surface well enough last time and cannot be written off running off the same mark of 59 here. The fitting of a tongue strap helped Prince of Medina last time when third behind Well Informed at Kempton. He is a previous course and distance winner who is back down to a winning mark of 46. He performed well enough off 46 last time and if the tongue strap has the same effect here, could go close again. Pelham Cresent has a chance off his mark but has stamina to prove. Baan is interesting, drops a further 5 lbs in the handicap and although has never won a handicap, has been knocking on the door. He has been campaigned mostly over shorter though. I've deliberated for a while as to who to back.... Bluebell Ridge, despite the fact she may not be straightforward, or Zuwaar or Augustus John who have been shaping as if they may land a handicap soon. In the end I've decided not to play at all but decided to post up my thoughts on the race anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 7.20 The interesting ones at the weights are Blue Hills, Irish Ballad, Rahy's Crown and Reminiscent. Blue Hills won over CD in March off 64 and is 4 lbs lower here. His third behind Cumbrain Knight at Southwell last time out was a respectable effort and he is now 7 lbs lower than when he disappointed on his last polytrack start here. Irish Ballad is another CD winner, although his CD win came back in Oct '06. He brings winning form to the table though having won at Lingfield last time out by a nose over 2 miles. He's up 3 lbs from that win but has won off his current mark of 52 previously. Rahy's Crown has disappointed on his last two polytrack starts but prior to that had won off a 12 lb higher mark at Lingfield. He hasn't had much racing really and could strike again off this sort of mark, but he's got something to prove after trailing home last at Lingfield last time out. Reminiscent is an interesting runner and Joe Fanning's mount, although racing from 1 lb out of the handicap, won off 63 several years ago and even in January last year won off 52, so isn't too badly treated running off 45 (+1 lb). He's finished fourth on each of his last three starts here, which is better than some of these, and the Spotlight in the RP says he won an Arab race in June, so he is fitter than the racecard probably indicates. 25/1 Bet 365 EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 8.50 Wolverhampton The best race on the card and it has attracted several decent runners. The ones that stand out at the weights are Press The Button, Millville, Birkside, King's Head, Sgt Schultze, and Profit's Reality. Keene's Day is the fav but leaps in class and is 7 lbs above his last winning mark. At the price I feel he's worth opposing. Press The Button, in contrast, is running off 83, which he won off at Kempton last time out and in fact, he has won off 2 lb higher in the past too. The RP commented after his last win that he was likely to be given a break and brought back in the new year, but the £12k carrot on offer here for the winner obviously made connections have a re-think. He is stepping up two classes from his last win though. Millville shoulders top-weight for this but that is no bad thing as he is used to lumbering big weights on his back. Michael Jarvis' gelding won over course and distance in February this year off 106 and he is only 1 lb higher here. Although his last appearance came on turf at Nottingham 212 days ago, he has proven in the past he can go well fresh, and he can be a major player here. Birkside is another taking a leap in class for this, but he won a class 4 handicap off 2 lb lower at York earlier in the year and has previously proven he acts on this surface. King's Head is only 4 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark, but that win came at Sandown several years ago and he has been running over the jumps more of late. Sgt Schultze, is only 3 lbs higher than when winning a class 3 handicap at Lingfield in March. At least he is proven at a higher level than some of these and can go well fresh, but his last few efforts at the end of the turf season were questionable. Profit's Reality is only 4 lbs higher than his last winning mark at Newmarket in June, but he has something to prove after disappointing turf efforts subsequently. Millville 7/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 9.20 Wolverhampton 12 now line up for this class 5 handicap over the extended mile to bring the card to a close. Morbick, Rydale Ovation, Blues Minor, Stark Contrast, Davenport and Maximum Aurelius look to have claims based on official ratings alone. All of Morbick's eleven last starts have been around this trip here and the last of his wins came in an apprentices handicap off just a 2 lb lower mark. He was racing in a higher grade when second to Spinning here last time out to show he is in good heart and has been given a reasonable draw to suit his prominent racing style. Rydale Ovation is 4 lbs higher than when winning at Kempton recently but has won off a higher mark in the past. His improved recent efforts have come over a longer trip though and he is yet to run at Dunstall Park so there is no guarantee he goes well here. Blues Minor is only 4 lbs higher than when winning over CD in a lower grade last time out. His experience of the all-weather is limited, but he seems to act on it, and the fitting of headgear did the trick last time. He has been handed a poor draw though here for one that likes to race prominently. Stark Contrast was a CD winner in this grade last time out and is only up 3 lbs for that win here. He's only 2 lbs above his highest ever winning mark too, and he actually won from 4 lbs out of the handicap last time. He ran well for this claiming jockey before here although he could have perhaps hoped for a better draw. Davenport looks well-treated running off 70 as he's won off 79 in the past and won off his current mark of 70, in this grade, at Goodwood in May. Although he has never won at the course before a string of placed efforts suggest he does act on the surface. His profile suggests he may need this run though, returning from a 121 day break. Maximum Aurelius is 4 lbs lower than when winning at Catterick last year, and although ran a good second off his current mark at Chester in June, has disappointed twice since and has something to prove. All in all I think Morbick looks the most likely winner and he looks to tick more boxes than the others. 4/1 Ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 9.20 - Blues Minor Won her LTO over this distance just 18 days ago so can't see no reason why it can't do it again. G Baker is booked for the ride tonight instead of Ahern who was on it when it last won so not sure what effect that will have but can't see it mattering too much. 2 pts @ 13/2 on skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Nice write ups Fin. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 6.50 - Bluebell Ridge Won well last time out and kept on well so the step up on trip here shouldn't be too much of a worry. Really like Kirsty Milczarek as a jockey as well, she gets her fair share of winners. 2 pts @ 3/1 on Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam7982 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 6.50 - Bluebell Ridge Won well last time out and kept on well so the step up on trip here shouldn't be too much of a worry. Really like Kirsty Milczarek as a jockey as well, she gets her fair share of winners. 2 pts @ 3/1 on Skybet hey mate Seem that every single paper i read and internet site are all backing bishopbriggs @ 13/2 2nd fav. Am kinda torn now after reading this and the internet stuff. Going to be a close call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 hey mate Seem that every single paper i read and internet site are all backing bishopbriggs @ 13/2 2nd fav. Am kinda torn now after reading this and the internet stuff. Going to be a close call? Bishopsbriggs was in the 6.20 mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 8:50 - Birkside Been out of sorts this horse for a while, Switched to Kevin Ryan's stable a few months ago and hasen't done much yet but he has some really good form around this track, A c&d winner and is capable of performing well in this grade, Needs a bit of improvment but is certainly capable. 5pts win @ 7/1 & 10pts place @ 2.50 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 hey mate Seem that every single paper i read and internet site are all backing bishopbriggs @ 13/2 2nd fav. Am kinda torn now after reading this and the internet stuff. Going to be a close call? Yeah Bishopbriggs just ran in the first race as stewart said. Oh and I have Bluebell Ridge at 4/1 not 3/1 as I stated in my post. EDIT - Chris Catlin is now on board of Bluebell Ridge, not sure why Kirsty Milczarek isn't on board but could be an influence that, hopefully it can still win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Just the one bet for me tonight and a small one at that e/w in the 7.20 KING'S JESTER 25/1 a lot bigger on BF. Back over the flat and blinkers fitted over a longer trip may spark a light. Trainer had the 2nd in the 1st race beaten by a fellow Irish trainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artbrut Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 8.50 There's nothing in this race that overly excites me as a lot of the leading contenders have question marks over them. As a tentative selection i would go for Sgt Schulz at an e/w price (27 and 6.8 respectively). Back on AW after 3 runs on turf. Up 3lbs since last AW appearance. However runs well fresh and has solid form over the distance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Nice pick again Mr Fintron.... ...Can't pick my nose as they say. :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Nice pick again Mr Fintron.... ...Can't pick my nose as they say. :eyes Cheers mate, I wouldn't worry, we all go through good and bad patches, you'll be picking the winners again soon - you wouldn't have a profitable thread if you were clueless. I felt Millville was a 4/1 shot for that, so smashed onto it at the prices available, which will pay for a few lines on the Scoop 6 tomorrow (loving the fact there is 4 AW races). :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: A lovely friday night at Wolverhampton 21/11/08 Cheers mate, I wouldn't worry, we all go through good and bad patches, you'll be picking the winners again soon - you wouldn't have a profitable thread if you were clueless. I felt Millville was a 4/1 shot for that, so smashed onto it at the prices available, which will pay for a few lines on the Scoop 6 tomorrow (loving the fact there is 4 AW races). :nanaDidn't see the race but apparently Birkside was ridden all wrong... ...Good luck with the Scoop6. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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