My Statistical Football Betting System

[Lechero79]

First of all I'd like to say hi to everyone on Punter's Lounge, I've only just discovered this forum (I must have lived under a rock for the last 10 years of my life, because I thought Betfair was the only sports forum on the internet!). Anyway, a bit about myself before I introduce my system. I've been a professional gambler for most of my adult life, although primarily not in sports betting. Although I have done well on sports betting too - I just have never had the time to work at the area before, despite being pretty knowledgeable in football. But I sat down whilst I've been on holiday in the past week and devised my system, I've always been interested in statistics and I think it can be well applied to football betting. So, onto the system. There are 5 weightings which I use to create a rating for the team (out of 25):- 1 - % of games which are won in the division (since I will never back draws, this is obviously very important). 2 - % of home wins/away wins 3 - Points Per Game throughout the season 4 - Points Per Game last 5 home or away matches (depending on whether team is home or away) 5 - Overall last 8 matches form Then, the two teams will combine to give an overall match rating. If a team is positive, then my system says they are more likely to beat the other team. Then, the ratings are compared to the best prices, to seek out differentials (basically teams which my system rates higher than the bookmakers). Here is my first batch of calculations, for this weekend 8th-9th November 2008:- I've done English Premier League, Championship, Scottish Premier League and Divisions 1-3, and the top flights of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. I'm not sure why Scottish 2 and 3 teams paste at the bottom but they are there...and there are some gems there! The rating on the left is the difference between the two teams (hence Barcelona has the biggest differential of the weekend), and the figure on the right is the best price in decimals. In the next post, I'm gonna post my weekend selections.

12.96	Barcelona	1.21
12.15	Genoa	1.55
10.75	Sevilla	1.44
10.48	Villarreal	1.55
10.18	Liverpool	1.25
10.1	Napoli	1.85
9.63	Caen	1.73
9.53	Dunfermline	1.91
9.46	Leverkusen	1.80
9.44	Chelsea	1.53
9.4	Fiorentina	1.55
8.99	Sheff Wed	1.80
8.77	Q of South	1.62
8.44	Villa	1.73
8.21	Hull	2.20
7.72	Wolfsburg	1.30
7.41	Plymouth	1.82
7.12	Rangers	1.53
7.02	Real Madrid	1.22
6.99	St Johnstone	1.65
6.79	AC Milan	1.62
6.77	Celtic	1.29
6.75	Mallorca	2.14
6.68	Bordeaux	1.60
6.64	Juventus	1.67
6.49	Swansea	1.83
6.43	Catania	2.15
6.34	Reading	1.73
5.51	Valencia	2.45
5.35	Hoffenheim	2.60
5.29	Lazio	1.62
5.21	Atletico Madrid	2.25
4.92	Birmingham	2.10
3.98	W Bremen	1.83
3.96	Hibs	1.70
3.90	Le Mans	3.40
3.8	Gijon	4.33
3.50	Toulouse	3.00
3.5	Palermo	3.40
3.47	Fulham	2.40
3.44	Lyon	2.00
3.43	Bielefeld	2.20
3.26	Falkirk	2.63
3.15	Hamburg	1.83
3.14	Rennes	3.40
2.96	Koln	2.25
2.91	Norwich	2.25
2.85	Dundee U	2.10
2.76	Everton	2.80
2.71	Man City	2.25
2.36	St Mirren	2.75
2.28	Inter	1.57
2.19	Wolves	1.87
1.83	Partick	1.80
1.8	Deportivo	2.20
1.46	Lille	3.60
1.40	Marseille	2.20
1.28	Livingston	2.60
0.93	Bologna	5.00
0.87	Southampton	2.50
0.83	QPR	2.10
0.79	Bayern Munich	2.63
0.76	Betis	3.00
0.66	Coventry	2.25
0.60	Frankfurt	3.10
0.56	Man United	2.50
0.45	Wigan	1.82
0.45	Sunderland	2.38
0.35	Valenciennes	2.50
0.25	Ipswich	2.88
0.18	Sheff United	2.63
0.08	Nice	3.50
0.80	Alloa	2.40
10.69	Brechin	1.83
6.07	Ayr	1.53
0.64	Raith	2.50
2.42	Peterhead	1.73
6.62	Montrose	2.20
2.46	Albion	2.70
6.96	Cowdenbeath	1.62
0.94	Forfar	1.82
2.49	Dumbarton	2.80

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System So, the selections for this weekend:- Saturday:- Queen of the South to beat Morton @1.56 Caen to beat Le Havre @ 1.76 Leverkusen to beat Karlsruhe @1.78 Sheff Wed to beat Doncaster @1.82 Dunfermline to beat Dundee @1.91 Brechin to beat Arbroath @1.83 Montrose to beat Annan @2.2 Sunday:- Sevilla to beat Recreativo @1.44 Villarreal to beat Almeria @1.57 Mallorca to beat Athletic Bilbao @2.18 Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna @2.34 Valencia to beat Getafe @2.52 Genoa to beat Reggina @1.57 Napoli to beat Sampdoria @1.87 Catania to beat Cagliari @2.16 Hoffenheim to beat Hertha Berlin @2.66 Aston Villa to beat Middlesborough @1.73 I haven't finalised my stakes yet, but it will probably be working off a betting bank of about £2.5-£3k, so it will be likely £50 or £100 potential profit per match. I'd be really interested in other's thoughts.

[lunatism]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System :welcome to Punters Lounge mate, good luck, sounds interesting. Using a theory I once trialled a while back (but lost the urge to carry it on), did you do any backtesting or trialling yourself? Or are you just putting on "£2.5-£3k" because you like to live dangerouslly?! :eek Good Luck!!

[rogsmith]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Very nice mate,good luck with it im gonna watch this one with great interest.

[andyfmfb]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Lot of work weems to have went in there so many thanks for sharing. I also will be watching this closley and will more than likley have a go with your selections for Saturday. (My betting bank being more along the line of 25-30 golden nuggets rite enough :) ) 5pts on the accum and a point per line on 5folds from the 7.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

:welcome to Punters Lounge mate' date= good luck, sounds interesting. Using a theory I once trialled a while back (but lost the urge to carry it on), did you do any backtesting or trialling yourself? Or are you just putting on "£2.5-£3k" because you like to live dangerouslly?! :eek Good Luck!!

Hi Lunatism, thanks for the warm welcome! I haven't done any trialling myself, but with a limited sample from my own hunches (maybe 30-40 matches) where I've lumped anything from £100 to £300 on the single, I've lost 5 or 6 at the most, and most of them were foreign games where I didn't do enough research, so I am a few grand up from football betting, plus also the system is in tune with my previous thought processes which seem to have some success. For example, my research that I have done for this project shows that backing away teams in Italy seems a bad way to go because home teams seem much more favoured statistically than in, for example Scottish Division 3 where this season so far, there have been more away wins than home wins. I'm a pro gambler anyway in other fields, so I'm willing to front up a bit of money for the system. I've put $4,300 ish in Betfair and that's gonna be my bankroll. This weekend, I'm gonna do the predictions (I might leave out Hoffenheim as I just don't fancy it and I'm not sure how long they are gonna be able to keep their run going), so it will probably be 16 games. Out of interest, the system also flagged up Plymouth at home to Charlton and Hull at home to Bolton, but I decided to take no interest in these games due to potentially false league positions, and in the Charlton case, managerial uncertainty. Also it came up with Swansea at home to Watford, but Watford just sacked their manager so I'm gonna leave well alone.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Oh, and I've decided that if I'm gonna do the 16 games, my stake for each match will be $50 potential profit per match - should reduce any possible effect of short term variance, which I know all too well from playing poker full time.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Ps: To anyone interested, I am happy to calculate other leagues. I have the feeling some other leagues (Bundesliga 2?) could be quite profitable, as the bookies will have less knowledge than the mainstream divisions. Now I've got my excel spreadsheet doing the calculations for me, it will only take 5-10 minutes to calculate values for a full round of matches.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Rogsmith - thanks, I've got good hopes for this! Andyfmfb - I might look to do the same perms for saturday as well - Coral seem to be the best prices overall for that. In fact, having done research on every teams price, I noticed how poor some high street bookies prices are in comparison to Coral. I can get any bookie pricematched at BetFred anyway so that's cool too.

[samfromcas]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System good luck lechero79 will be whatching your posts with interest and wil no doubt have a few quid on some or all of your selections i have a good feeling there could be some profit to be had thanks sam ;)

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Ok, so I've put the bets on for today's games... (All matched on Betfair except Sheff Wed, price has crashed so I've placed an order) $71 on Queen of the South to beat Morton @ 1.7, potential profit $49.70. $67 on Caen to beat Le Havre @ 1.76, potential returns $50.92. $63 on Leverkusen to beat Karlsruhe @ 1.79, potential returns $49.77 $62 ordered on Sheff Wed to beat Doncaster @1.81, potential returns $50.22. $53 on Dunfermline to beat Dundee @1.96, potential returns $50.88. Brechin and Montrose prices have severely crashed, going to try and get best price @ Hills/Tote before I advise further on that game.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System I went to Hills and Tote shops in my town... Hills were fine with me getting 5/6 on Brechin even tho they are available to lay at 1.75 on Betfair - £40 staked. Tote have cut Montrose to 10/11 from 6/5 (massive cut - available to lay at 2.04), but they still let me put up to £80 on at 6/5 - £35 staked.

[Chris3b]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Hello Lechero79, thank you for your nice share ! why do you not bet with asian handicap ?

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

Hello Lechero79, thank you for your nice share ! why do you not bet with asian handicap ?

Hi Chris, to be honest I don't know enough about the AH to make a viable system - plus I haven't done enough research on the teams in the areas of goalscoring (i.e. whether they will likely win by > x goals), just whether there is a large differential in the price/my ratings.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

So, the selections for this weekend:- Saturday:- Queen of the South to beat Morton @1.56 LOST 1-4 (wtf!) :@ Caen to beat Le Havre @ 1.76 LOST 0-1, late goal :wall Leverkusen to beat Karlsruhe @1.78 DREW 3-3 (after Leverkusen were 3-0 up after 24 mins!) :wall Sheff Wed to beat Doncaster @1.82 WON 1-0 ;) Dunfermline to beat Dundee @1.91 LOST 0-1 :$ Brechin to beat Arbroath @1.83 WON 2-1 ;) Montrose to beat Annan @2.2 WON 2-1 ;)

Overall a slight loss on day 1, will do a detailed P&L after todays games.

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Sunday's Games:- Sevilla to beat Recreativo, $113 staked @ 1.44 - Potential Profit $49.72 Villarreal to beat Almeria, $85.97 staked @ 1.58 - Potential Profit $49.86 Valencia to beat Getafe, $10 staked @ 2.5, $22.69 staked @ 2.54 - Potential Profit $49.94 Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna, $38 staked @2.3 - Potential Profit $49.40 Mallorca to beat Athletic Bilbao, $42 staked @2.18 - Potential Profit $49.56 Aston Villa to beat Middlesbrough, $67 staked @1.71 - Potential Profit $49.58 Genoa to beat Reggina, $87 staked @1.57 - Potential Profit $49.59 Catania to beat Cagliari, $43 staked @2.16 - Potential Profit $49.88 Napoli to beat Sampdoria, $56 staked @1.9 - Potential Profit $50.40

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

Sunday:- Sevilla to beat Recreativo @1.44 - WON 1-0 ;) Villarreal to beat Almeria @1.57 - WON 2-1 ;) Mallorca to beat Athletic Bilbao @2.18 - DREW 3-3 (Mallorca 3-1 up after 79 mins) :@ Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna @2.34 - DREW 0-0 :wall Valencia to beat Getafe @2.52 - Won 3-0 ;) Genoa to beat Reggina @1.57 - Won 4-0 :dude Napoli to beat Sampdoria @1.87 - Won 2-0 ;) Catania to beat Cagliari @2.16 Won 2-1 ;) Hoffenheim to beat Hertha Berlin @2.66 - No bet advised, Lost 1-0 anyway. Aston Villa to beat Middlesborough @1.73 - Lost 2-1 :@

6/9 from today, including a couple of odds against wins, so it should have been a profitable day. I won't get a chance to do a P&L until Monday night, when I'll be assessing all the midweek fixtures, and will post my latest predictions then. Good luck all!

[TheLubet]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Hi Lechero79, Look's promising, it will be interesting to see your yield after a couple of weeks. Keep up The good Work. Signed, The Lubet. :)

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Ok, current statement after this weekends games. Matches: 16 Wins: 9 Losses: 7 Highest Priced Win: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loss: 1.56 Staked: $993.56 Returns: $1055.67 Profit/(Loss): $62.01 Yield: 6.24%

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System I've done some research in other leagues this week, so here are my midweek (Tues and Weds) ratings. I'm going to cover most European and some South American leagues from now on. I'm tweaking the system slightly, in that any team which has drawn more than 40% of their matches counts will not be recommended. I think that will be a nice help.

Austria Wien	19.54
Rapid Wien	18.00
Ried	21.31
Salzburg	22.90
Karnten	18.12
Rheindorf	8.77
LASK Linz	15.75
Sturm Graz	19.01
Kapfenburg	11.38
Mattersburg	8.11
Lens	21.33
Montpellier	16.24
Juventus	19.99
Genoa	17.15
Cracovia Krakow	9.86
Arka Gydnia	7.71
Polonia Warsaw	20.41
Piast Gliwice	15.55
Belchatow	22.50
Legia Warsaw	17.40
Ruch Chorzow	15.83
Slask Wroclaw	13.51
Lechia Gdansk	16.01
LKS Lodz	8.97
Polonia Bytom	19.72
Lech Poznan	18.46
MKS Odra Wodzislaw	12.36
Wisla Krakow	17.84
Jagielliona	17.96
Gornik Zabrze	9.81
Leicester	19.82
Yeovil	13.04
Solihull	13.02
Droylsden	17.78
Harrogate	20.33
Blyth	9.36
Basingstoke	9.96
Weston Super Mare	12.07

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Here are each team highest in their match rating, compared to the best price available (Betfair is currently down so I cannot include them at the moment in best prices) HDT (High draw tendency) means a team in that match has drawn 40% or more of its matches this season, so in these cases no bet is advised. I couldn't find prices for Lens v Montpellier, so I advise backing Lens if you can get a price >1.91. I will be betting on Harrogate at home to Blyth Spartans, and Lechia Gdansk at home to LKS Lodz this week, plus Lens if the price is high enough.

10.97	Harrogate	1.53		BET
9.35	Karnten	1.45
8.15	Jagielliona	2.25	HDT
7.04	Lechia Gdansk	1.8		BET
6.78	Leicester	1.57	HDT
5.48	Wisla Krakow	1.73
5.1	Belchatow	2.75
5.09	Lens			BET if odds >1.91
4.86	Polonia Warsaw	1.35
4.76	Droylsden	2.2	HDT
3.27	Kapfenburg	2.4
3.26	Sturm Graz	2.38
2.84	Juventus	1.57
2.32	Ruch Chorzow	2.1	HDT
2.15	Cracovia Krakow	2.4
2.11	Weston Super Mare	2.25	HDT
1.59	Salzburg	2
1.54	Austria Wien	2.85
1.26	Polonia Bytom	3.6

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Apologies, forgot there were Scottish games this midweek too... Here are the favourites in each match, with the overall match rating. Third column is best price (except Betfair). I also recommend a bet on Dundee United at home to Hibernian.

14.43	Celtic	1.22
5.86	Rangers	1.57
5.48	Dundee United	2.00	BET
4.99	East Stirling	1.83
4.08	Hearts	1.62
3.83	Falkirk	3.20
2.82	St Mirren	5.00

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Harrogate at home to Blyth Spartans - WON 3-1 :ok Annoyingly not all my bets got matched @ Betfair but I did stake $18 @ 1.57 and $40.12 @ 1.58. So, current P/L figures before Dundee United and Lechia Gdansk games tomorrow where (hopefully if it gets matched!) I will be doing the usual stake to win $50 potential profit. Matches: 17 Wins: 10 Losses: 7 Strike Rate: 58.8% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loss: 1.56 Staked: $1051.68 Returns: $1147.32 Profit/(Loss): $95.64 Yield: 9.09%

[andyfmfb]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Looking like a system that could turn to be quite profitable. Will be on a Dundee Utd and Gdansk double tonight. Ps. Any possibility you could run this system for the Irish Premier league?

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

Looking like a system that could turn to be quite profitable. Will be on a Dundee Utd and Gdansk double tonight. Ps. Any possibility you could run this system for the Irish Premier league?

I hope so!! I am liking the look of it so far, with some minor tweaks I think it could work very well... I'll make sure I do the Irish Premier League from this weekend onwards, I actually didn't think there were games this midweek - then I saw this afternoon on Sky Sports there was. I'm happy to do any other leagues too. :hope on Dundee United - Gdansk won 2-1 this afternoon ;)

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

So, current P/L figures before Dundee United and Lechia Gdansk games tomorrow where (hopefully if it gets matched!) I will be doing the usual stake to win $50 potential profit.

Dundee United - WON 2-0 Lechia Gdansk - WON 2-1 Matches: 19 Won: 12 Lost: 7 Strike Rate: 63.16% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.56 Staked: $1158.68 Returns: $1354.54 Profit/(Loss): $195.68 Yield: 16.90%

[andyfmfb]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

Dundee United - WON 2-0 Lechia Gdansk - WON 2-1 Matches: 19 Won: 12 Lost: 7 Strike Rate: 63.16% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.56 Staked: $1158.68 Returns: $1354.54 Profit/(Loss): $195.68 Yield: 16.90%

Top notch mucker, made up for my losses on Wigan last night! :ok

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System

Top notch mucker' date=' made up for my losses on Wigan last night! :ok[/quote'] Awesome, glad to hear the system is proving profitable ;) Let's hope it continues with this Friday's matches. I'll post Saturday's match ratings on Friday. On Friday, there are quite a few games throughout most European leagues. However - I will say now that I don't advise a bet on any Irish match as I think it's the last game of the season, and apart from the relegation playoff, most teams have little to play for. I also have left alone Portuguese matches as the season is only 7 games old - I want at least 10 games form to put into my system. Here are Friday's match ratings, as usual with the best price on the right.

TSV 1860 Munich	14.56		2.10
FC Augsburg	9.40
Vfl Osnabrück	13.03		2.02
SV Wehen Wiesbaden	8.50	HDT
FC St Pauli	16.71		1.93
Rot-Weiß Ahlen	13.15
Hannover 96	12.34		1.94
VfL Bochum	8.28	HDT
SV Red Bull Salzburg (Am)	12.21		2.74
FC Wacker Innsbruck	11.36
SV Grödig	13.04		2.12
FC Lustenau	8.61
SKN St. Pölten	15.37		1.61
1.FC RFE Vöcklabruck	9.90
SC Austria Lustenau	11.93		1.80
DSV Leoben	10.63
Trenkwalder SKS	16.37		1.50
FC Gratkorn	10.94
AGOVV Apeldoorn	12.75		2.20
TOP Oss	8.19
RKC Waalwijk	16.18	HDT	2.20
Excelsior	13.28
Go Ahead Eagles	14.55		1.91
HFC Haarlem	9.47
FC Omniworld	8.81		2.58
FC Dordrecht	8.43
FC Den Bosch	14.66		2.08
Helmond Sport	12.97
NAC Breda	17.23		1.53
Heracles Almelo	10.28
Amiens	11.89	HDT	2.30
AC Ajaccio	11.13
Châteauroux	11.03		2.38
Vannes	10.45
Dijon	12.13		1.87
Nimes	7.83
Guingamp	11.50	HDT	2.30
Tours FC	10.93
Reims	9.73		2.56
Clermont Foot	9.10
Sedan	11.68		2.28
Brest	12.27
Boulogne USCO	16.68		1.96
Angers	10.97	HDT
Montpellier	14.79		2.02
Troyes	11.29
Bastia	11.90
Lens	14.35		2.75
Arka Gdynia	11.06
GKS Belchatów	15.61		2.75
Legia Warszawa	15.94		1.45
Slask Wroclaw	12.47	HDT
Bohemians	18.13		2.42
Cork City	14.18
Derry City	13.12		1.78
Cobh Ramblers	10.29
Drogheda Utd	11.28
St Patricks Athletic	16.06		2.46
Finn Harps	10.07
Shamrock Rovers	10.30	HDT	5.75
Sligo Rovers	13.78		1.50
Bray Wanderers	10.99
UC Dublin	8.64
Galway Utd	11.95		1.67
Bristol Rovers	14.49
Scunthorpe Utd	14.75		2.64
Chesterfield	12.76		2.50
Shrewsbury	12.31
Cherno More Varna	15.39		1.67
Spartak Varna	7.43
Genclerbirligi	11.41
Trabzonspor	16.73		2.18
Mantova	12.53		1.91
Pisa	11.00	HDT
Metalurh Zaporizhya	15.79		1.85
Chernomorets Odessa	9.67
Westerlo	16.55		2.60
AA Gent	13.20

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System After dechiphering those stats, I have two bets for Friday's games, both odds against :- Trabzonspor to win away at Genclirbligi @ 2.18 TSV 1860 Munich to win at home to Augsburg @ 2.1 :hope

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Please note that I just saw the Turkish league thread in the forum and I advise no bet on Trabzonspor at Genclirbligi due to managerial changes. I have unfortunately already placed the bet at Betfair, and I've placed an order to lay it off with a scratch trade. If the lay does not get matched, the bet on this thread stands. If the lay does get matched, it will be a no bet match.