Lechero79 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System My lay bet on Betfair for Trabzonspor got matched so that's a scratch trade - will NOT count in the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Ps: To anyone interested, I am happy to calculate other leagues. I have the feeling some other leagues (Bundesliga 2?) could be quite profitable, as the bookies will have less knowledge than the mainstream divisions. Now I've got my excel spreadsheet doing the calculations for me, it will only take 5-10 minutes to calculate values for a full round of matches. Welcome to PL Lechero79. Very interesting work/system you got there :ok...I would be curious to see your ratings/predictions regarding the Portuguese Superliga and also the Champions League if possible. Cheers. JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Welcome to PL Lechero79. Very interesting work/system you got there :ok...I would be curious to see your ratings/predictions regarding the Portuguese Superliga and also the Champions League if possible. Cheers. JC Hi JC! I'm happy to do the Portuguese Superliga (the weekend's matches will be calculated tonight), the Champions League will be harder because I think it will be hard to quantify the strength of each team's respective league (I did look into using the UEFA coefficients which would probably be the best way of doing it), and I think the group nature of the tournament would lead to more draws (the number of 0-0's in this year's group stages is absurd!). I'd be interested in your thoughts about this though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Hi JC! I'm happy to do the Portuguese Superliga (the weekend's matches will be calculated tonight)' date=' the Champions League will be harder because I think it will be hard to quantify the strength of each team's respective league (I did look into using the UEFA coefficients which would probably be the best way of doing it), and I think the group nature of the tournament would lead to more draws (the number of 0-0's in this year's group stages is absurd!). I'd be interested in your thoughts about this though.[/quote'] Thanks much Lechero79 :ok! I will be looking forward to the Portuguese picks :)... ...regarding the CL I don't use ratings often (at least so far) but when I look at it what I tend to do (not sure if it's the best approach) is to come up with some kind of average ratings. Let's say Chelsea is playing Roma...I would use some kind of an average of EPL and Serie A ratings :D...kind of crazy I know, but that's how I do it when using ratings in the CL... Cheers. JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System English (Premier-Conference South) ratings, all other European leagues plus Saturday/Sunday predictions to be posted Friday evening/Saturday morning... HDT - High draw tendency of the relevant team LA - Leave alone due to managerial changes Bolton Wanderers 12.55 Liverpool 17.30 Blackburn Rovers 11.37 Sunderland 10.42 West Ham Utd 12.34 Portsmouth 12.30 West Bromwich Albion 11.23 Chelsea 18.69 Newcastle 12.41 Wigan 10.98 Fulham 13.70 Tottenham 11.05 Man United 17.36 Stoke 10.49 Arsenal 16.02 Aston Villa 13.69 Hull 13.73 Man City 10.08 Everton 12.69 Middlesbrough 12.30 Doncaster Rovers 8.76 Ipswich 13.13 Bristol C 13.03 Nottingham Forest 8.23 Birmingham 15.43 Charlton 9.17 Barnsley 12.83 Watford 8.85 Cardiff 14.39 HDT Crystal Palace 11.67 Coventry 11.99 Plymouth 11.88 Derby 13.14 Norwich 9.27 Southampton 10.53 Wolves 15.31 QPR 15.01 Burnley 12.50 Sheff United 16.16 Reading 13.13 Blackpool 12.10 Preston 9.90 Crewe Alexandra 9.58 Leyton Orient 9.59 Hartlepool Utd 14.65 Milton Keynes Dons 14.74 Hereford Utd 10.00 Cheltenham 7.70 Millwall 16.21 Stockport County 14.67 HDT Northampton 13.70 Oldham Athletic 11.55 Swindon Town 11.50 LA Leicester City 15.10 Tranmere Rovers 14.17 Southend Utd 13.01 Yeovil 11.29 HDT Peterborough Utd 13.98 Leeds Utd 16.21 Huddersfield Town 10.87 Colchester 11.11 Walsall 12.13 Carlisle Utd 10.19 Brighton 11.54 HDT Barnet 10.68 Notts Co 10.46 HDT Aldershot 12.16 Exeter 16.02 Accrington 10.13 Bournemouth 11.15 Gillingham 14.94 Rotherham 13.50 Wycombe 14.91 HDT Bradford 13.61 Bury 12.38 Grimsby 7.26 HDT Port Vale 11.59 Brentford 12.56 HDT Luton 9.97 Dagenham 13.07 Darlington 15.54 Lincoln 13.62 Chester 9.94 Morecambe 8.87 HDT Rochdale 15.08 Macclesfield 10.10 Histon 16.30 Kettering 14.59 Lewes 10.40 Burton 14.71 Mansfield 12.03 Salisbury 10.58 Rushden 13.79 Kidderminster 13.14 Crawley 15.39 Cambridge 13.14 Stevenage 15.31 Northwich 9.32 Ebbsfleet 11.70 Barrow 11.93 Weymouth 14.44 LA Wrexham 13.64 York 13.25 Torquay 15.32 Eastbourne 11.70 Woking 10.10 Forest Green 9.64 Altrincham 12.15 Grays 10.71 Oxford 11.26 Alfreton 12.98 HDT Solihull 9.89 Hinckley 13.51 Harrogate 14.17 Vauxhall 11.20 Hucknall 8.06 Burscough 8.35 Stalybridge 14.24 Hyde 10.56 Workington 9.68 HDT Droylsden 14.34 HDT Redditch 11.86 Farsley 14.20 Tamworth 16.57 Southport 15.81 Kings Lynn 13.05 HDT Telford 15.37 Gateshead 12.54 Thurrock 12.57 Worcester 14.60 Bishops Stortford 10.18 Fisher 8.56 Havant 10.71 Newport 9.49 HDT Welling 14.76 AFC Wimbledon 14.29 Bognor Regis 8.66 Weston Super Mare 11.90 Maidenhead 16.29 Eastleigh 12.30 Chelmsford 16.16 Bath 13.18 St Albans 16.53 Hayes & Yeading 16.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Thanks much Lechero79 :ok! I will be looking forward to the Portuguese picks :)... ...regarding the CL I don't use ratings often (at least so far) but when I look at it what I tend to do (not sure if it's the best approach) is to come up with some kind of average ratings. Let's say Chelsea is playing Roma...I would use some kind of an average of EPL and Serie A ratings :D... Cheers. JC I see...so perhaps combining the two respective leagues propensity for home/away wins and draws - perhaps factoring in the uefa coefficient and champions league and domestic form combined. This could lead to some strange ratings perhaps, I'm not sure until I do it - for example Serie A has by far the highest percentage of home wins out of any league in Europe (for example last weekends predictions had 3 mediocre/quite good italian sides at home and they all won) - but bearing in mind Chelsea just got heavily beaten at Roma and whenever Roma travel to England they get thrashed, it might just turn out ok!! I will do ratings for the next round of champions league games and see how they turn out ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System I see...so perhaps combining the two respective leagues propensity for home/away wins and draws - perhaps factoring in the uefa coefficient and champions league and domestic form combined. This could lead to some strange ratings perhaps, I'm not sure until I do it - for example Serie A has by far the highest percentage of home wins out of any league in Europe (for example last weekends predictions had 3 mediocre/quite good italian sides at home and they all won) - but bearing in mind Chelsea just got heavily beaten at Roma and whenever Roma travel to England they get thrashed, it might just turn out ok!! I will do ratings for the next round of champions league games and see how they turn out ;) Exactly...as I said it is not usual for me to use ratings but when I actually do (using Roma-Chelsea as an example) what I would do is use the Serie A home data vs the EPL away data...might seem strage I know, but... ...I'll be looking forward to see the outcome of your analysis. :cheers JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Exactly...as I said it is not usual for me to use ratings but when I actually do (using Roma-Chelsea as an example) what I would do is use the Serie A home data vs the EPL away data...might seem strage I know, but... ...I'll be looking forward to see the outcome of your analysis. :cheers JC Exactly, that's my line of thinking too...one anomaly though would be a game such as CFR Cluj v Chelsea - I mean the Romanian league is a far lower standard than the Premier League so we'd have to use some adjustment to the form - that's where I was thinking the UEFA coefficients might come in. What I will endeavour to do is produce some ratings for the next round of CL games and then hopefully you can give me some feedback on them! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Friday's Result:- 1860 Munich - LOST 0-1 :@ Stake lost $46. Annoyingly, Trabzonspor won 1-0 but I feel that I pulled out of the game for the right reasons. Current P/L:- Matches: 20 Won: 12 Lost: 8 Strike Rate: 60% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.56 Staked: $1204.68 Returned: $1354.54 Profit/(Loss): $149.86 Yield: 12.44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Portuguese League Ratings - Please note that I have not counted these in the overall thread because the league is only 7 matches old, and the statistics won't be reliable enough. I will include this league after 9-10 matches. Sporting Lisbon 15.02 Leixões 17.62 FC Porto 14.07 Vitoria Guimaraes 13.17 Nacional 15.02 Rio Ave 8.41 Braga 12.01 Vitória Setúbal 8.89 Pacos Ferreira 7.01 Naval 10.79 Benfica 16.53 Estrela Amadora 11.90 Belenenses 8.52 HDT Academica 9.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Selections for this weekend as follows. There are quite a few games, caused by me delving into some obscure leagues! IMO the bookies have very poorly priced up the Danish and Welsh leagues in particular. I'm going to put the league where the match is in, in every prediction from now on as I did get some feedback that it's difficult to find my selections on the betting sites when I select obscure teams. :) Best prices except Betfair, I'll get my bets matched on there first thing Saturday... Saturday:- Kickers Offenbach @ 1.45 to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg in German Bundesliga 3. Haverfordwest @ 1.5 to beat Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier. Bangor City @ 1.53 to beat Welshpool Town in Welsh Premier. Birmingham @ 1.62 to beat Charlton in English Championship. FC Aarau @1.7 to beat Bellinzona in Swiss Premier. Aarhus GF (AGF) @ 1.73 to beat HFK SønderjyskE in Danish Premier. Stalybridge @ 1.8 to beat Burscough in English Conference North. Bristol City @ 1.83 to beat Nottingham Forest in English Championship. Braintree @ 1.91 to beat Basingstoke in English Conference South. Brechin @ 1.91 to beat East Fife in Scottish Division 2. Raith @ 1.95 to beat Peterhead in Scottish Division 2. Salernitana @ 1.99 to beat Rimini in Italy Serie B. Montrose @ 2.00 to beat Elgin City in Scottish Division 3. Auxerre @ 2.00 to beat Sochaux in French Ligue 1. Wolves @ 2.1 to beat Southampton in English Championship. Ipswich @ 2.25 to beat Doncaster in English Championship. NEC Nijmegen @ 2.63 to beat Roda JC in Dutch Premier. Sunday:- Udinese @ 1.4 to beat Reggina in Italy Serie A. OB Odense @ 1.42 to beat Vejle in Danish Premier. AZ Alkmaar @ 1.8 to beat Vitesse Arnhem in Dutch Premier. Xerez @ 1.95 to beat Alaves in Spanish Secunda Liga. Siena @ 2.00 to beat Bologna in Italy Serie A. Catania @ 2.15 to beat Torino in Italy Serie A. Kickers Emden @ 2.15 to beat Wacker Burghausen in German Bundesliga 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Saturday:- Kickers Offenbach @ 1.45 to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg in German Bundesliga 3. $98 staked @ 1.51 on Betfair to win $49.98. Haverfordwest @ 1.5 to beat Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier. Not offered on Betfair, I can only stake at Corals and I'm not taking the 1.44 on offer, so this will be a paper trade at 1.5. - $100 staked to win $50. Bangor City @ 1.53 to beat Welshpool Town in Welsh Premier. Again, market not offered on Betfair, I will take the 1.5 offered if it's still available at my local Corals shop - will be $100 staked to win $50. Birmingham @ 1.62 to beat Charlton in English Championship. $28.64 staked on Betfair, $46.36 awaiting matching (both at 1.67) - potential profit $50.25. FC Aarau @1.7 to beat Bellinzona in Swiss Premier. $62 staked on Betfair @ 1.82 to win $50.84. Aarhus GF (AGF) @ 1.73 to beat HFK SønderjyskE in Danish Premier. $73 staked on Betfair @1.69 to win $50.37 Stalybridge @ 1.8 to beat Burscough in English Conference North. No liquidity in the market, I will go to my local BetFred to try and take the 1.8 on offer - will be $62 staked to win $49.80. Bristol City @ 1.83 to beat Nottingham Forest in English Championship. $53 staked @ 1.95 on Betfair to win $50.35. Braintree @ 1.91 to beat Basingstoke in English Conference South. No liquidity on Betfair, will go to my local BetFred to try and take the 1.91 on offer - will be $55 to win $50.05. Brechin @ 1.91 to beat East Fife in Scottish Division 2. Poor prices on offer in Betfair, I will go to my local William Hill to try and take the 1.91 on offer - will be $55 to win $50.05. Raith @ 1.95 to beat Peterhead in Scottish Division 2. $47 staked @ 2.06 on Betfair to win $49.82. Salernitana @ 1.99 to beat Rimini in Italy Serie B. $46 staked @ 2.08 on Betfair to win $49.68. Montrose @ 2.00 to beat Elgin City in Scottish Division 3. $50 staked @ 2.00 on Betfair to win $50.00. Auxerre @ 2.00 to beat Sochaux in French Ligue 1. $47 staked @ 2.08 on Betfair to win $50.76. Wolves @ 2.1 to beat Southampton in English Championship. $46 staked @ 2.08 on Betfair to win $49.68. Ipswich @ 2.25 to beat Doncaster in English Championship. $36 staked @ 2.38 on Betfair to win $49.68. NEC Nijmegen @ 2.63 to beat Roda JC in Dutch Premier. $30 staked @ 2.68 on Betfair to win $50.40. Sunday:- Udinese @ 1.4 to beat Reggina in Italy Serie A. $113 staked @ 1.44 on Betfair to win $49.72. OB Odense @ 1.42 to beat Vejle in Danish Premier. $113 ordered @ 1.44 on Betfair to win $49.72. AZ Alkmaar @ 1.8 to beat Vitesse Arnhem in Dutch Premier. $60 ordered @ 1.84 on Betfair to win $50.40. Xerez @ 1.95 to beat Alaves in Spanish Secunda Liga. $49 ordered @ 2.02 on Betfair to win $49.98. Siena @ 2.00 to beat Bologna in Italy Serie A. $50 ordered @ 2.00 on Betfair to win $50.00. Catania @ 2.15 to beat Torino in Italy Serie A. $40 ordered @ 2.24 on Betfair to win $49.60. Kickers Emden @ 2.15 to beat Wacker Burghausen in German Bundesliga 3. $38 ordered @ 2.3 on Betfair to win $49.40. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Bangor, Stalybridge and Braintree all placed at bookies...Brechin only 5/6 so will order on betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Not a good day - it was looking good with 6/8 from the first results I knew in England/Scotland, unfortunately a turn for the worse with a fair few short priced teams getting turned over...a good day for the bookies i think with many shock results in all leagues. Hopefully tomorrow will be better :hope Saturday:- Kickers Offenbach @ 1.45 to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg in German Bundesliga 3. - DREW 1-1 :wall Haverfordwest @ 1.5 to beat Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier. (No bet matched, finished 1-1) Bangor City @ 1.53 to beat Welshpool Town in Welsh Premier. - LOST 0-2 :wall Birmingham @ 1.62 to beat Charlton in English Championship. - WON 3-2 :lol FC Aarau @1.7 to beat Bellinzona in Swiss Premier. - LOST 0-1 :$ Aarhus GF (AGF) @ 1.73 to beat HFK SønderjyskE in Danish Premier. - DREW 0-0 :wall Stalybridge @ 1.8 to beat Burscough in English Conference North. - WON 2-0 :) Bristol City @ 1.83 to beat Nottingham Forest in English Championship. - DREW 2-2 :@ Braintree @ 1.91 to beat Basingstoke in English Conference South. - DREW 2-2 :@ Brechin @ 1.91 to beat East Fife in Scottish Division 2. - WON 2-1 (95th minute!!) ;) Raith @ 1.95 to beat Peterhead in Scottish Division 2. - WON 3-0 :) Salernitana @ 1.99 to beat Rimini in Italy Serie B. - LOST 2-3 :@ Montrose @ 2.00 to beat Elgin City in Scottish Division 3. - WON 2-1 :) Auxerre @ 2.00 to beat Sochaux in French Ligue 1. - WON 1-0 :) Wolves @ 2.1 to beat Southampton in English Championship. - WON 2-1 :) Ipswich @ 2.25 to beat Doncaster in English Championship. - LOST 1-0 :wall NEC Nijmegen @ 2.63 to beat Roda JC in Dutch Premier. - result not yet in.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Portuguese League Ratings - Please note that I have not counted these in the overall thread because the league is only 7 matches old, and the statistics won't be reliable enough. I will include this league after 9-10 matches. Sporting Lisbon 15.02 Leixões 17.62 FC Porto 14.07 Vitoria Guimaraes 13.17 Nacional 15.02 Rio Ave 8.41 Braga 12.01 Vitória Setúbal 8.89 Pacos Ferreira 7.01 Naval 10.79 Benfica 16.53 Estrela Amadora 11.90 Belenenses 8.52 HDT Academica 9.84 Great job Lechero :ok! Funny thing is that out of two games yesterday your system predicted both correctly (Porto and a nice upset away win for Leixões) :ok! I'll be looking forward to more Superliga data. Thanks much and :cheers. JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Hey JC, glad to hear it!! I'm still tweaking a few things in the system but despite yesterday's poor day, it's looking positive for the future. Which leads me on...as a professional gambler I know how important it is to have a debrief with yourself after each session. For example, this is vital in poker to try and realise potential leaks/overplayed hands etc... And this is what I did last night with the system - yesterday's results were somewhat disappointing after a superb start with 6/8 wins from England/Scotland but I felt the need after some thought to tweak a few areas - Firstly I realised I haven't put enough weight on win % for each division. This has now been changed for next weeks games. Also, I think that reducing the margin to >4 points instead of >5 points for team differential was a mistake and from now on, I will only be advising teams with >5 differential. I have probably been guilty of wanting to bet on as many opportunities as possible when I should be a bit more selective. I think that comes from my poker background where I 8 table online so that your hourly rate increases to the detriment of your winrate per hand (and so the long run comes sooner). NEC lost 3-0 last night by the way :$ Current P/L:- Matches: 36 Won: 19 Lost: 17 Strike Rate: 52.8% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.45 Staked: $2139.68 Returned: $2087.15 Profit/(Loss): ($52.53) Yield: -2.45% Great job Lechero :ok! Funny thing is that out of two games yesterday your system predicted both correctly (Porto and a nice upset away win for Leixões) :ok! I'll be looking forward to more Superliga data. Thanks much and :cheers. JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Unlucky about yesterday, system seems to have produced some long odds winners. Hope you have more success today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Unlucky about yesterday' date=' system seems to have produced some long odds winners. Hope you have more success today.[/quote'] Thanks mate! I hope so too :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Midweek ratings as follows, not many games this week due to cup/Europe which I've decided that I will leave alone until I can rate them better. I will rate the Champions League for fun purposes tho ;) Mansfield Town 13.27 Altringham FC 12.75 Oxford Utd 14.54 Kidderminster Harriers 13.68 Stevenage Borough 14.62 Histon 15.54 4 Torquay Utd 17.11 1.33 Lewes FC 8.68 Weymouth 14.23 2 Woking FC 10.44 Wrexham 16.26 Forest Green 8.81 Grays Athletic 11.36 Rushden and Diamonds 11.92 Eastbourne Borough 12.30 Salisbury City 10.04 Cambridge Utd 15.75 HDT 1.8 York City 10.71 HDT Kettering Town 15.26 Barrow FC 11.22 Crawley Town 15.10 1.91 Ebbsfleet Utd 10.50 Gateshead 12.43 2.2 Kings Lynn 12.28 HDT Bishops Stortford 9.74 Hampton & Richmond 15.49 2.1 Bromley 11.61 Hayes & Yeading 15.78 2.38 Maidenhead 15.99 1.57 Newport 9.55 HDT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Only 1 bet recommended midweek:- Hampton & Richmond to beat Bishops Stortford (Blue Square South) @ 2.1 - $45.45 staked to win $50.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Today was another mixed bag...:eyes Udinese @ 1.4 to beat Reggina in Italy Serie A. - LOST 0-1 :@ OB Odense @ 1.42 to beat Vejle in Danish Premier. - WON 2-0 :) AZ Alkmaar @ 1.8 to beat Vitesse Arnhem in Dutch Premier. - DREW 1-1 :@ Xerez @ 1.95 to beat Alaves in Spanish Secunda Liga. - WON 5-0 :nana Siena @ 2.00 to beat Bologna in Italy Serie A. - DREW 1-1 :@ Catania @ 2.15 to beat Torino in Italy Serie A. - WON 3-2 :) Kickers Emden @ 2.15 to beat Wacker Burghausen in German Bundesliga 3 - LOST 3-1 :wall I'll calculate the P&L in the morning - only Hampton & Richmond this midweek due to cup fixtures which I'm leaving alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Current P/L:- Matches: 43 Won: 22 Lost: 21 Strike Rate: 51.2% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.40 Staked: $2602.68 Returned: $2422.45 Profit/(Loss): ($180.53) Yield: -6.94% Not great reading, this weekend was definitely a turn for the worse but I feel that with the new criteria, the future will be a lot brighter. Really I should be paper trading this until I get the system working as I want it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 18, 2008 Author Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Only 1 bet recommended midweek:- Hampton & Richmond to beat Bishops Stortford (Blue Square South) @ 2.1 - $45.45 staked to win $50.00. Back to winning ways ;) WON 3-1. I went to Tonbridge Angels game tonight (my local team) and got talking to the manager of Farnborough FC - he kept me updated with scores for this game :clap Gave me some useful info for betting in non league football too - he said at this level of football, the better side re: league placings usually wins 7/8 times regardless of the match being home or away and that home advantage is of little significance. This is borne out by my statistics which show that away win % is not too far out from home win % for this kind of standard of football. Current P/L:- Matches: 44 Won: 23 Lost: 21 Strike Rate: 52.8% Highest Priced Winner: 2.52 Lowest Priced Loser: 1.40 Staked: $2648.13 Returned: $2513.90 Profit/(Loss): ($134.23) Yield: -5.07% This was the first match predicted with the new criteria for the system, so hopefully we can make a nice upturn for the future now. With yesterday's positive Ice Hockey results, I'm hoping the tweaks that I've implemented will do the trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Ratings for the weekends fixtures below - as I said in my other sports thread I'm not going to rate every match in every division because of time constraints, however it won't effect the number of selections (which will although be lower due to the extra criteria as stated previously) because I am now comfortable enough with the system to work out which games have a decent chance of meeting the criteria to be a viable potential bet. Austria Magna Vienna 16.96 1.60 SV Josko Fenster Ried 11.13 FC Red Bull Salzburg 21.29 1.14 SV Stadtwerke Kapfenberg 8.05 HFK SønderjyskE 9.98 Brøndby 13.93 1.59 FC Nordsjælland 11.84 Odense 14.71 1.91 FC Copenhagen 17.13 1.36 Aarhus GF 11.00 Chelsea 18.68 1.23 Newcastle Utd 9.80 Liverpool 20.07 1.29 Fulham 10.69 Wolverhampton 18.05 1.56 Blackpool 11.53 Burnley 15.30 1.67 Doncaster Rovers 7.94 Reading 17.15 1.44 Southampton 10.42 Woking FC 11.85 Torquay Utd 16.31 2.00 Histon 17.74 1.91 Oxford Utd 11.16 Karlsruhe 10.06 Dortmund 13.13 2.40 Schalke 04 13.49 1.44 B Mönchengladbach 9.14 Bayern Munich 15.80 1.19 Energie Cottbus 9.51 Arminia Bielefeld 9.38 HDT Bayer Leverkusen 16.11 1.76 MSV Duisburg 12.80 1.51 FSV Frankfurt 7.01 Alemannia Aachen 16.08 1.53 Vfl Osnabrück 9.03 SC Freiburg 16.17 1.44 TuS Koblenz 7.79 FSV Mainz 05 16.15 1.55 FC St Pauli 10.91 Jahn Regensburg 9.46 Union Berlin 13.13 2.20 Fortuna Dusseldorf 14.34 1.75 Eintract Braunschweig 9.70 Panathinaikos 12.24 1.17 Thrasivoulos Filis 8.99 PAOK Saloniki 14.16 1.73 Larissa 10.74 PSV Eindhoven 16.93 1.29 Heracles Almelo 9.60 Cambuur Leeuwarden 17.04 1.55 Stormvogels/Telstar 9.66 Excelsior 16.73 1.45 FC Dordrecht 8.39 Napoli 19.27 1.62 Cagliari 9.80 Glasgow Rangers 19.26 1.35 Aberdeen 13.00 St Mirren 10.90 Celtic 20.80 1.35 Dundee Utd 17.32 1.57 Hamilton Academical 8.78 Dunfermline 14.82 1.70 Morton 10.36 Berwick 9.45 Cowdenbeath 15.13 1.91 Dumbarton 15.86 1.67 Albion 12.80 Real Madrid 17.96 1.35 Recreativo Huelva 8.68 Villarreal 18.47 1.52 Real Valladolid 9.50 Deportivo La Coruña 14.50 2.08 Athletic Bilbao 8.86 FC Barcelona 20.18 1.20 Getafe 11.75 Atletico Sevilla 8.54 Xerez 10.66 2.50 Real Zaragoza 13.79 1.55 Eibar 8.12 Rayo Vallecano 14.07 1.65 Alicante 7.14 Ankaragücü 10.11 Fenerbahce 13.25 1.67 Besiktas 17.34 1.30 Eskisehirspor 10.79 Airbus 12.05 Rhyl 18.44 1.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Selections for the weekend - it seems that the new criteria means that most of the games will be odds on, I don't mind that at all though. Recommend getting on early because I don't think some of these prices will be around long, especially Villarreal, Dundee United, Burnley and Deportivo:- CELTIC to beat St Mirren (Scottish Premier) @ 1.35 NAPOLI to beat Cagliari (Italian Serie A) @ 1.62 VILLARREAL to beat Real Valladolid (Spanish Primera Liga) @ 1.52 DUNDEE UNITED to beat Hamilton (Scottish Premier) @ 1.57 SC FREIBURG to beat TuS Koblenz (German Bundesliga 2) @ 1.44 CAMBUUR LEEUWARDEN to beat Stormvogels/Telstar (Dutch Division 2) @ 1.55 BURNLEY to beat Doncaster (English Championship) @ 1.67 ALLEMANIA AACHEN to beat Vfl Osnabruck (German Bundesliga 2) @ 1.53 RAYO VALLECANO to beat Alicante (Spanish Segunda Liga) @ 1.65 HISTON to beat Oxford (English Blue Square Premier) @ 1.91 WOLVES to beat Blackpool (English Championship) @ 1.56 COWDENBEATH to beat Berwick (Scottish Division 3) @ 1.91 DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA to beat Athletic Bilbao (Spanish Primera Liga) @ 2.08 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System I've just rated some more leagues for the weekend... Velez Sarsfield 12.45 1.53 Gimnasia Esgrima de Jujuy 7.86 Palmeiras 15.72 1.2 Ipatinga 8.12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11.90 n/a Belazitsa Petrich 6.49 Dinamo Zagreb 16.90 1.2 Zadar 9.54 FC Brno 10.69 1.58 FC Zlin 7.05 Mlada Boleslav 15.09 1.46 Bohemians Praha 9.87 Slavia Praha 19.10 1.42 FC Teplice 10.27 Tokyo Verdy 12.39 1.50 Consadole Sapporo 7.42 Lisburn Distillery 15.37 1.73 Dungannon Swifts 8.62 Linfield 17.74 1.36 Glenavon 10.30 Polonia Bytom 13.23 1.77 LKS Lodz 7.81 Polonia Warsaw 16.25 1.44 Gornik Zabrze 7.68 Cracovia Krakow 10.89 Lech Poznan 15.48 1.73 Jagodina 17.07 1.60 Rad Beograd 8.34 Ruzemberok 14.11 1.44 Zlate Moravce 8.00 MFK Kosice 13.73 HDT 1.80 Artmedia Petrzalka 8.07 Spartak Trnava 15.66 1.50 FC Nitra 8.89 Celje 15.89 1.63 FC Koper 8.04 Maribor 16.75 1.75 Ljubljana 11.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System More recommended bets:- SLAVIA PRAHA (Czech Premier) to beat FC Teplice @ 1.42 LISBURN DISTILLERY (Northern Irish Premier) to beat Dungannon Swifts @ 1.73 POLONIA WARSAW (Polish Premier) to beat Gornik Zabrze @ 1.44 JAGODINA (Serbian Premier) to beat Rad Beograd @ 1.60 CELJE (Slovenian Premier) to beat FC Koper @ 1.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyfmfb Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Great work again Lechero, hopefully be a profitable weekend!! Distillery, coming off the back of a good win at Newry, should have too much for the Swifts although I was quite surprised at the difference in ratings! Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System Great work again Lechero, hopefully be a profitable weekend!! Distillery, coming off the back of a good win at Newry, should have too much for the Swifts although I was quite surprised at the difference in ratings! Good luck! Hi andy, going from memory I think Dungannon are bottom with a pretty poor away record which will weight them pretty low - Distillery are probably no great shakes but at home at 1.73 this differential is massive value, probably one of the best value bets this weekend from my system. Hopefully this weekend will be pretty profitable - I've got some good early prices on Betfair and will post all matched bets tomorrow morning! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyfmfb Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: My Statistical Football Betting System The Swifts have doubts over Timmy Adamson, Ryan Mullan and Darragh Peden for the JJB Sports Premiership meeting with the Whites at New Grosvenor. Adamson has a calf problem, Mullan could miss out with a toe injury and Peden has a leg injury. Mark McAllister is serving a suspension while Johnny Montgomery has returned to IFA Championship club Loughgall. Distillery are just four points behind the leaders after claiming 10 points from a possible 12. Team news very much reinforces reasoning behind backing Distillery. The Swifts are 4 from bottom but having played a game more than 2 below them they could soon find themselves in bottom 2. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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