Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

[BAM]

Slap, please can you read column 2 on page 56 of the October issue of Insidepoker. I know you have had a counter arguement on this a few times on this forum but I want to understand it more as this is something I am getting increasingly confused by and I have done some pretty lame shoves recently. Aside from this I loved this article on fold quity (nice one AlunB) as I know one or two players on here swear by it and base their whole game on it, which makes them exploitable sometimes ;)

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Slap, please can you read column 2 on page 56 of the October issue of Insidepoker. I know you have had a counter arguement on this a few times on this forum but I want to understand it more as this is something I am getting increasingly confused by and I have done some pretty lame shoves recently.

My counter argument is just that it's simply not true that a hand like :8d::7d: does better against a realistic calling range than :Ac::5s:.Try it on PokerStove. It's true that if you're called by a big ace then you'd rather have :8d::7d:, but against many other likely calling hands like KK, 99, KQs, you're much better off with :Ac::5s:. And another point in favour of :Ac::5s: is that because you have an ace, it's less likely that your opponents will have hands in their calling range, so you're more likely to win the blinds without a showdown.

[BAM]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash What if you factor in their probable hands - pocket pair 16-1 high cards 6/1

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash If you go all in against the range (any pair, any 2 broadway - 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then you are: with A5o = 42.262% with 78s = 37.841%

[BAM]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Definitely doesn't stack up there is something missing somewhere :unsure Why does Hendrix describe it as "a well documented mistake" to shove with A rag?

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

If you go all in against the range (any pair, any 2 broadway - 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then you are: with A5o = 42.262% with 78s = 37.841%

Definitely doesn't stack up there is something missing somewhere :unsure Why does Hendrix describe it as "a well documented mistake" to shove with A rag?

If you go multi way, then the 78s fares better than the A5o. Against 2 opponents, with the same range as above, the odds are (approx): A5o = 27.0% 87s = 28.5%

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Definitely doesn't stack up there is something missing somewhere :unsure Why does Hendrix describe it as "a well documented mistake" to shove with A rag?

Well, I've seen a similar claim to Hendrix's several times, so in that sense it's "well documented". In fact, there's another article in the November issue of Inside Poker by somebody else more or less saying the same thing. Maybe I'm missing something, but I suspect it's just a kind of urban myth. It would be interesting to hear from the authors of these articles to see if they have a counter-counter-argument to my counter-argument. Maybe it's time for a letter to Inside Poker. :D

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

If you go multi way, then the 78s fares better than the A5o. Against 2 opponents, with the same range as above, the odds are (approx): A5o = 27.0% 87s = 28.5%

I'd wondered if it was something to do with multi-way hands, but "they" never mention that. It must be a lot more common to get just one caller/raiser, though, unless you're really short-stacked and it's late enough in the tournament that your opponents are going to be in "call and check down" mode. Also, even against two opponents it's pretty close, and I'm pretty sure the effect of having an ace, reducing the chance of being called, and even more of being called twice, outweighs the 1.5% difference.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

In fact' date=' there's another article in the November issue of Inside Poker by somebody else more or less saying the same thing.[/quote'] I almost made WASPs post after reading something in the November IP, but after giving it some more thought I didn't because the example wasn't an all in example, which is totally different (because of the implied odds I'm offering I'd rather 78s as I'm more likely to hit a hand that I know is ahead than hit a hand that could be ahead or behind). When you're all in, then it's express odds only, and that makes for a different scenario.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Just found the November article - it's Stephen Devlins on Page 53 and it is an all in scenario. He says "I would much rather shove KQ, KJ or QJ than an Ace rag like A6, A7, A8." It's strange because a paragraph earlier he acknowledges getting called by the likes of KQ, KJ and QJs, which you'd rather have a rag ace against :unsure

[BAM]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash I will not get to November's issue until early January so I will be in suspenders until then. I was quite excited this morning reading IP and seeing tht Felix Dennis is doing a tour talking about his work. I grabbed my diary to make a note to go and see him on October 7th :\

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Just found the November article - it's Stephen Devlins on Page 53 and it is an all in scenario. He says "I would much rather shove KQ, KJ or QJ than an Ace rag like A6, A7, A8." It's strange because a paragraph earlier he acknowledges getting called by the likes of KQ, KJ and QJs, which you'd rather have a rag ace against :unsure

KQ, KJ, QJs probably are a bit better than A8o (I checked against a top 10% hand but haven't checked how changing the calling range affects things), though it still leaves the "blocking ace" effect. But if I remember correctly, he then goes on to say he likes shoving with medium suited connectors too.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

But if I remember correctly, he then goes on to say he likes shoving with medium suited connectors too.

Yes :ok

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Having said all I've said, I'm not sure it's particularly important from a practical point of view. Personally, when I'm short-stacked and looking for an opportunity to steal the blinds, waiting for the ideal hand isn't really a factor. Given a good situation, I'll shove with any halfway decent hand, whether it's A6o or 87s. I don't think I'm good enough to make the fine judgement that one's right and the other's wrong!

[AlunB]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Interesting debate guys, and I won't dare to try and talk on behalf of my strategy guys. But I will see if I can get Aaron and Stephen to comment on this for you, and yes by all means send in a letter. You may well get a free chip set for your troubles... I would say, however, this debate depends a LOT on the calling range you assign to your opponent(s). Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 11,807,661 games 9.562 secs 1,234,852 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.054% 65.24% 00.34% 7702935 40504.00 { 55+, A8s+, KJs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo } Hand 1: 35.946% 36.46% 00.34% 4304993 40504.00 { 76s } Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 11,582,494 games 9.454 secs 1,225,142 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 63.594% 62.83% 02.65% 7277481 306503.50 { 55+, A8s+, KJs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo } Hand 1: 36.406% 34.84% 02.65% 4035090 306503.50 { A5o }

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash 36.5% v 36% - that's pretty close Alun, but still in favour of the rag ace. When I fiddled around with ranges when this first came up (quite a while ago) - the Ace rag came out on top against the suited connectors for most ranges

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Also, even against two opponents it's pretty close, and I'm pretty sure the effect of having an ace, reducing the chance of being called, and even more of being called twice, outweighs the 1.5% difference.

Isnt the reduced chance of your opponent having an ace and calling taken account of in the odds from pokerstove? If you hold an ace in your hand, then pokerstove knows that there's only 3 aces left in the deck doesn't it? (If you try and put Ace of Spades in twice, it gives an error back)

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Isnt the reduced chance of your opponent having an ace and calling taken account of in the odds from pokerstove? If you hold an ace in your hand' date=' then pokerstove knows that there's only 3 aces left in the deck doesn't it? (If you try and put Ace of Spades in twice, it gives an error back)[/quote'] It takes account of the reduced chance of having an ace as a proportion of hands in the range (e.g. if you give yourself A5o and give him AA and KK as part of his range, then the results will reflect him having KK twice as often as AA). But what it doesn't take account of is that if you give yourself an ace and give him a range that contains lots of hands with aces, then that reduces the size of his calling range. And so although PokerStove's results give the correct equity if you are called, they don't take account of the fact that with some hands you'll be called less often. E.g., if you give him a range of top 10%, that contains 130 hands, but that includes 17 hands that include :As:, so if you have A5o, there are only 113 hands that he'll call you with. Top 10% contains no hands containing a 5,6 or 7, so if you have 76o there are the full 130 hands that he'll call you with. Against this range, PokerStove gives 35.9% equity for A5o and 33.7% equity for 76s, which is not a huge difference, but what the figures don't tell you is that you'll only be called about 87% as often with A5o as you will with 76s.

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Just worked out an example using the range from the last post. For simplicity, I'll assume you shove from the SB, so there's only one player who can call you. I'll assume you start the hand with 6xBB. A5o: Of 1225 hands the BB could hold, he'll call with 113. So 1112/1225 of the time you end up with 7xBB. 113/1225 of the time, you have 35.9% equity in 12xBB. In total, your expected number of BBs after the hand is about 6.75. 76o: BB will call with 130 hands. So 1095/1225 of the time you end up with 7xBB. 130/1225 of the time, you have 33.7% equity in 12xBB. In total, your expected number of BBs after the hand is about 6.69. If you do the calculation for 76o, but using the postflop equity figure for A5o, you get about 6.71. So the majority of the advantage of A5o is because it has a lower chance of being called.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Gotcha :ok (I think :unsure :lol :lol :lol :tongue2)

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash okay, so either way sooted connectors are not that far behind a rag odds wise....i think:unsure:lol what about the effect this would have on your image? surely playing and sometimes showing hands like these will effect the opponents view of your play (surely you look looser)and maybe make you more on those bigger hands. it also makes it more difficult for an opponent to assign you a range of hands,which surely is good for you for all sorts of reasons. maybe these effects are less important when you are in the position where your all in,which is the arguement in question i spose but it's not all about a single hand but what will happen before and after.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash By the time you're playing shove or fold poker, you want an image where you dont get called and you just pick up the blinds and antes, because more often than not, you wont have the goods :unsure Though I'm not sure you'll get more respect shoving A5o than 78s :unsure

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Though I'm not sure you'll get more respect shoving A5o than 78s :unsure

You'll get more respect from me. :tongue2

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

By the time you're playing shove or fold poker, you want an image where you dont get called and you just pick up the blinds and antes, because more often than not, you wont have the goods :unsure Though I'm not sure you'll get more respect shoving A5o than 78s :unsure

yeah i did say that once it gets to shove time its a lot less important and i'm not saying to not shove a5 ,i mean bet more often by opening up your range. i'm thinking more of the mid levels where blinds are now worthwhile stealing and there is still some play there but an all in is also very possible pre flop. i dont think that being more aggressive necessarily means that you get more callers,in fact it seems to go the other way sometimes and people are less likely to mess with you :ok. if they do they are ready to commit more chips, which is nice if you do actually have aa:) how many people say"i'll wait for a big hand and try to trap the aggressor";). now that sounds to me like you can bet into these players and have a pretty good idea what they have if they call ,but not only that they will still fold a large majority of their hands. so you probably get to steal as many if not more blinds but when you do get callers their stack is usually on the line ,if not it becomes an easy fold for you if you dont hit the flop with your hand.

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Guess who has the star letter in this months issue ;) I appreciate that there wasnt a lot of space for a reply, however am far from convinced by Aaron Hendrix response :unsure Basically the argument was that slapdash' ranges were "a little off the mark". I think it would be very good if we could put a couple of specific hands to Aaron and find out what his range is for shoving :unsure

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Guess who has the star letter in this months issue ;)

Oooh! Have I won something? :nana

I appreciate that there wasnt a lot of space for a reply, however am far from convinced by Aaron Hendrix response :unsure Basically the argument was that slapdash' ranges were "a little off the mark". I think it would be very good if we could put a couple of specific hands to Aaron and find out what his range is for shoving :unsure

Do you mean for calling?

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Yes - you win a 300 chip set :ok Er ... yes - I meant calling :$

[AlunB]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash

Guess who has the star letter in this months issue ;) I appreciate that there wasnt a lot of space for a reply, however am far from convinced by Aaron Hendrix response :unsure Basically the argument was that slapdash' ranges were "a little off the mark". I think it would be very good if we could put a couple of specific hands to Aaron and find out what his range is for shoving :unsure

Yeah we didn't have space to print the full reply. I will dig it out and post it on here. I think the main point is that while the range is probably solid as a likely calling range it is probably more weighted towards Aces. In other words more people are more likely to call you with a big Ace. They are not equally likely to call with KJ as they are with AJ. If that makes sense. I'm very tired and not very well today so forgive me if my brain is addled...

[GaF]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Cheers Alun - would be good to see the full reply :ok Hope you're feeling better soon :)

[slapdash]

Re: Shoving with any Ace - FAO Slapdash Thanks, Alun. I'll be interested to read the full reply. Get well soon.