Guest hammy Posted January 28, 2003 Share Posted January 28, 2003 I have been doing big accumulators a little while and I havent won a penny. I do think I get approx 80% of my predictions right but for some reason the ones I group in an accy always seem to contain one wrong 'un. Below are the list of teams who I think will win this weekend. Could someone please explain a method to me whereby I should come out favourably by placing money on these selections as I am a bit of a betting novice but I do reckon I know my football. Wins for Portsmouth, Wallsall, Man Utd, Crewe, Tranmere, Wigan, Bournemouth, Hartlepool, Rushden, 1860 Munich, Club Brugge, St Truidense, PSV, Worksop, Vauxhall Motors, Tamworth, Worcester, Scarborough, Halifax, Northwich Victoria, Ipswich, Stenhuismuir, Falkirk, Bayern Munich, Schalke, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Ajax, Sporting, Benfica, Milan. I would appreciate if someone could inform me how to maximise my money by betting on some/all of these. Cheers Ham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 28, 2003 Share Posted January 28, 2003 Re: How do I win some dosh I don't suppose I could really explain where things go wrong, but being a realist(and applying some fundamental maths), it's quite easy to see it's almost impossible for you to get your big accy spot on unless they're comprised of events with odds of 1.1 or less(even then, I'd give it no more than a 50% chance of pulling off if it comprises of 10 events or more). On paper, every single pick of yours may seem the favourite on a single, but when you lump it all together, it invariably would result in someone screwing you up(perhaps, some team is embarking on a bad run) due to events unforeseeable when you wagered. I guess the best thing you could do would be to split up accumulators and make sure you have no bankers(ie. a team that is present in EACH and every single of your accy). For instance, go for Portsmouth-Walsall-Man Utd-Crewe-Tranmere for one accy and maybe PSV-Halifax-Milan-Ajax-Benfica-Sporting for another. While this no doubt increases your chances, it still doesn't guarantee anything. Personally, I've never pulled off anything more than 20/1. Hope this helps. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted January 28, 2003 Share Posted January 28, 2003 Re: How do I win some dosh You may not like this answer but....... To win dosh from bookmakers you must select teams that the bookmakers have overpiced. E.g. they offer odds of 2.5 when the true odds are 2. If you have the skill and judgement to do this consistently, in the long term you will win, else you will lose. Suggest you do a bit of research in the Systems and Strategy forum, where this thread will be moved to shortly and then come back with more questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: How do I win some dosh In short, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let me put it this way. If you can genuinely correctly forecast 80% of games from your choices on the weekend coupon (which I very much doubt but that's another issue) then you will quite easily be able to collect regular profit simply by betting with singles. I know the protential profits for accas are greater than for singles, but the chances of winning are (disproportionately) smaller, as you seem to have discovered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footie Addict Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: How do I win some dosh Agree with both Odds Aganist and Joe. Singles are the best way to make money, especially when you can pick a high proportion of correct outcomes. If you find yourself for example doing 7 home wins (like I used to when I started a year ago), and getting 5/6 right every week, the chances are if you staked a tenner on each one you would return a slight but regular profit overall. The only problem is that often people get too greedy to wait for slight profits and wipe out their wins on really long accies (at least I did ontil a couple of months ago). Also, looking for underpriced odds from the bookies is improtant too. If you have reason to believe that th odds for a mtach are particularly generous, do some research. Of course a common one here is local team news that emerges after a coupon is brought out. The first couple of rounds of the Worthington Cup were very good to me in that respect, with punters potsing up tips the day of the match after odds had been published. That way the odds youre betting with don't accurately reflect the risk you are taking! Discipline is also essential - i.e. not betting on the one match on mid week, just because it is the only one available. Also betting on Italian, Spanish, German and in particular French footie without doing some research (or consulting the Euro forum). Finally, leave youre bets as late as possible, as you never know what information may come to hand, injuries etc the amount of times I based a decision believing a player to be out only for him to be named on the team sheet on teletext half an hour beofore kick off used to be criminal. G'luck, an I'll do some Italian footie analysis up in the Euro forum on Fri Afternoon/Sat morning for you and others if I get time. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hammy Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 big accumulators Within this list their are surely 15 winners - getting those 15 correct for a 5p bet with a return of approx £1000 seems to be considered silly by most punters but I would rather do twenty of these for a pound than buy a lottery ticket. Ok I said I get about 80% of my predictions correct - not true obviously Joe but I will report back how many of the lot listed win. I probably will just keep after the big win - winning 2 quid a day aint much good to me but thanks for your help chaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gordon Gecho Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Just one more thing... If you have a "hero" picture on your wall of that guy who won 140k on an 18team accy recently...then for christsake pull it down! He was the luckiest mug going. The only reason that story got in the papers is so the bookies can encourage more mugs to bet the way he does, Totally wrong even tho he won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 ... Gotta go a little against the grain here... Obviously, the generally accepted logic is that singles is the only way to go, but having tried both, I tend to find that accas work better for me!!!!! Example - After winning a pretty decent sized acca some time ago, I decided to follow the advice of everybody and do singles instead. So I did. And I researched them A LOT, choosing only the safest, best paying of games and staked big. And I lost. Boy, did I lose... Feyenoord at home at a good price v. scum, dominating the game totally only to draw, similarly with some Danish and German games... It may of course have been coincidental, but theoretically speaking, you do increase your potential losses as well when you do singles. Instead of loosing the single stake you have on an acca, you lose a stake on every single bet you make. For example, I may spend 50 units on acca systems (with no bankers - good point edtkh) on a saturday comprising some 20 odd games I like. I have the chance of winning maybe somewhere between 100 and 1000 units - depending on how many accas come good. If I do singles and stake 50 units on each, I stand to loose potentially 500 units for a potential win in about the same range. Alternatively, I can stake 2,5 units on each single for a total stake of 50 units, thereby reducing my potential winnings to somewhere between 5 and 50. In other words - if I'm really lucky and clever, I double my stake. Joe and you other guys - I am sure you sometimes have a really excellent weekend where most of your bets come good. Don't you ever regret not having profited from them 10-20 fold more by doing accas????? If you do roughly level odds accas at say around 10, you only have to pull off 1 from 9 to be in profit and 2 from 10 to double your money. This has, I assure you, worked better for me than my doomed singles-adventure... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: ... Hammy , your not from Leeds are you - used to know someone whos brother was called Hammy thats all OddsAgainst pretty much covered my thoughts on the subject. It seems to me you are betting simply on teams you think will win without considering the odds. Quite simply to beat the bookies you gotta bet on teams whose odds are higher than they should be. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dprovan Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 units maybe Im being thick here...actually it is most likely:rollin but when everyone talks about units referring to their bets ie a 10 unit bet/ a 5unit bet/ what does this actually mean or relate to.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 ... Exactly what you want it to mean ;) One guys 10 units may be another guys 100. It just reflects a basic value (something like x in math), which you can then apply whatever value you fancy to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dprovan Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 thanks cheers, but is there any way to know how confident the bet is ie is there a max amount of units which will let me know that this is a confident bet, otherwise what is the point of doing it. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: thanks Let's say you feel very confident about a certain selection. The true odds of that selection are 1.8 but only 1.3 is on offer. No matter how confident you are, a series of bets like that will only lose you money. So you should not increase your stakes based on confidence. The only sensible variable staking plan (IMO) is one in which you vary the stake according to the edge you have. So, now let's say I identify a selection which I believe to have an evens chance and it is available at 2.1 and have a bet. Next week, I identify another but the odds available are 2.5. As the edge is bigger, I will have a bigger stake on that. This is a simplification of the Kelly system which is discussed at length on various other threads. If you are interested search the forum for "kelly". Another use of points is in measuring the performance of a series of bets. It is generally accepted that unless a series of bets produces a profit to level stakes, no variable plan will produce a profit. So we can proof using one point level stakes. Finally, it allows us to discuss betting without revealing anything about our financial means. When some tosser comes on the board and claims to have £2000 on so-and-so, does that not piss you off. Using units give a level playing field, means wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paulybhoy Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 dprovan Units might well be interpreted in different ways, but the point behind it as Odds says relates to bank. Whatever your bank is a unit is a % of it, so regardles of bank size 1 unit is 1% of it and so on. So if your betting a 100 units you are risking all your bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dprovan Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 thanks thanks paulbhoy and oddsaggainst that does make sense now:D . Cheers fellas;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paulinho Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: thanks kinda agreeing with da h. i made a profit last season with betting accas each week. got a soft spot for them and they still come out now and then (nailed a couple in an old thread in here) but i tend not to do them so often, partially cos i think the premiership is getting closer and because i've got a bit more serious. i dont think i make more money from betting singles, i reckon its about the same, i'll have to consult the record books, but its def. more consistent and less risky in terms of going on losing runs, which i like, so its mainly singles and doubles nowadays may well rehash the old singles vs accys test, only this time change it to play all games as singles not just the one, wait and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bowles10 Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: thanks used to do 5 or 7 team accys & get 1 wrong so many times. now do singles & get 1 out of 5 instead ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh it's still the luck of the draw & how you place the teams. Backing wigan/portsmouth/arsenal each week wont make loads of money but it's bound to come in more often than 3 mid table teams. maybe do trebles etc instead of a full blown accy, although you still waste 50p on a 10 team accy for fun! remember '86 QPR 6 Chelsea 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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