Guest redchiz Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: Bets for 28th and 29th of January Just comparing notes and I have to say that while we are approaching the subject in slightly different ways our overall conclusions are uncannily similar. I completely concur with Tottenham/Newcastle as the strongest pick and your other selections are very much borne out by my own ratings. I am probably more cautious than you in the 'middle ground' which I think is reflected in your 'medium' selections. The one glaring game in which we differ is Middlesbrough/Aston Villa where you say UNDER and I tend to OVER ("You say tomato..."). So we'll call that one a head-to-head, eh?;) Good luck anyway, mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 29, 2003 Share Posted January 29, 2003 Re: Bets for 28th and 29th of January Hi! We seem to be doing basically the same things (not a huge surprise really, considering we're looking at over/under matches) but as you say we are approaching the subject in slightly different ways. My system, as long as I'm including the medium bets, are producing a lot of bets. Time will show if that's the way to go. I'lll be more than happy if just my strong bets turn out to be in profit over time (so far 4 out of 4), in which case I will start betting more heavily on them. But so far the whole system is in profit so I'll keep doing the medium ones for now. You beat me solidly into the ground on the Middlesboro/Aston Villa bet ;) But I still think it was the correct bet (yeah, I know a bit stupid saying that after 2-5 :eek ). 5 of Villas 9 away goals (in 12 matches!) came yesterday... I guess your system put more weight on Middlesboros record at home while my system put more weight on Villas away record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 30, 2003 Share Posted January 30, 2003 Status 28-29th January - 0,45 units A small loss this week. The Tottenham - Newcastle match was a strong bet, but too much was probably at stake to let the scoring begin (until Injury time). Oh well. Middlesboro - Aston Villa under 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,75 - LOST SPECTACULARLY >: Bolton - Everton over 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,95 - WON :D Sunderland - Southampton under 2,5, STRONG bet, odds 1,75 - WON :D Man. City - Fulham over 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D Tottenham - Newcastle over 2,5, STRONG bet, odds 1,75 - LOST :D Liverpool - Arsenal under 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,85 - LOST :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 5 units staked, 6.95 won. + 1.95 units. Medium strong bets: 39 units staked, 39.90 units won. + 0.9 units Total = 44 units staked, 46.85 units won = + 2,85 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 New bets for 1-2 February. Hi, new bets. This time I'm using the best odds offered from bookmakers that I actually use. It's a pain in the royal bottom checking over/under prices by the way, anyone know of a 'Betbrain-type' thing that does it? Anyway, a lot to gain by using the best prices. Here are this weekends bets: (Betfair odds excluding 5% commission) Arsenal - Fulham over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,72 (Betfair) Chelsea - Tottenham over 2,5 goals, STRONG bet, odds 1,85 (Betfair) Middlesboro - Newcastle over 2,5 goals, medium bet, this seems to be cancelled? Southampton - Manchester United over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,85 (Betfair) Sunderland - Charlton under 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,80 (Centrebet) West Ham - Liverpool under 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,90 (Betfair) :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 5 units staked, 6.95 won. + 1.95 units. Medium strong bets: 39 units staked, 39.90 units won. + 0.9 units Total = 44 units staked, 46.85 units won = + 2,85 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Betbrain do it. Click the O/U link to the right of the game. Best price on Sunderland under is evens with Betclass. /www.betbrain.com/odds/sh...244&type=2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muppet Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Best price on Sunderland under is evens with Betclass. .....or 2.05 with ladbrokes. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Thats for under 2 goals and you get your money back if there is exactly 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muppet Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. surely it means that half money goes on each (2 and 2.5) if 2 goals are scored, then half is refunded and you win with the other half? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Both are correct but Muppet is correct for this game. From Laddies site: Will there be more goals or fewer goals than the Goal Line? If the total number of goals is identical to the Goal Line then bet stakes are refunded. (e.g. If the Goal Line is 2.0 and the game finishes 1-1 all stakes are refunded.) Should there be a split Goal Line (e.g. 2.0/2.5 or 2.5/3.0) then your bet is split between the two Lines. (e.g. If the Goal Line is 2.5/3.0 then half your bet is on a Goal Line of 2.5 and the other half is on a Goal Line of 3.0. In this example, if you bet 'over' and the game finished 2-1 half of your bet would win and half of your bet would be refunded.) Goal Line bets are singles only and cannot be included in multiples Obviously the price quoted for this bet cannot be directly compared to Lardonio's posted price for under 2.5 and that is why I left it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Thanks for that tip! I was not aware that Betbrain had this service. It will make my life much easier when doing this! However I will only odds from the bookies I actually use for practical reasons; the most important one being that I want to have matching accounts in my Excel sheet and here on the Lounge. I expect anyone following my tips to check the odds for themselves, anyway. I have to say Betclass' price on this particular game was amazing. For reference the five bookies I use for this project are Betfair, Bet365, Centrebet, Expekt and Ladbrokes (excluding 2/2,5 splits). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Did you know that if you register with them you can save the bookies and leagues you are working with? Then when you log in it only dispays your preferences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 1, 2003 Share Posted February 1, 2003 Re: New bets for 1-2 February. Yeah, thanks, I am aware of that actually and I'm registered. I just did not know (hadn't noticed) they compared over/under odds. It's a great help for me, even though they don't quote odds from one of my bookies (Centrebet). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 Oh dear. Results 1-2 February. And we're in the red. Well, another Strong bet down the drain and the others did terribly as well. As usual the bets are flawless, but the teams involved this week did a very poor job of performing them. :b Here are the (bad) results: Arsenal - Fulham over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,72 (Betfair) - WON :D Chelsea - Tottenham over 2,5 goals, STRONG bet, odds 1,85 (Betfair) - LOST >: >: Southampton - Manchester United over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,85 (Betfair) - LOST >: Sunderland - Charlton under 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,80 (Centrebet) - LOST >: West Ham - Liverpool under 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,90 (Betfair) - LOST >: :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 6 units staked, 6.95 won. + 0.95 units. Medium strong bets: 43 units staked, 41.62 units won. - 1.38 units Total = 49 units staked, 48.57 units won = - 0,43 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 5, 2003 Share Posted February 5, 2003 Re: Oh dear. Results 1-2 February. And we're in the red. I just back-tested my system doing doubles and trebles instead of singles (using the average odds of my winning bets each session). The results are interesting, but I would like some opinions on what to do here. Currently the project is down by 0,43 units betting singles. By doing doubles the project would have a profit of 7,71 units. By doing trebles the project would have a profit of 38,59 units (not bad from 49 matches!). The scary part is that I have three profitable weeks (the first three weeks) and then it's been losing every week. I have not changed the selection method, I've just hit a bad period. I guess I'll just have to keep testing it to arrive at a conclusion, but it's tempting to try trebles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 7, 2003 Share Posted February 7, 2003 Bets for 8-9th February Hi guys. I have changed the staking model slightly to do doubles and trebles when possible. It produced profits when I back-tested it with my results so far and so I will use them here. This week produced 5 bets, and I'm doing all doubles (10 bets) with Expekt. I will restart the finances. So, for record, the singles project ended with a loss of -0,43 units on a total of 49 matches. I did not use best odds offered for more than 1 week, so I would probably have made a small profit if I had. Anyway, for this week's bets: Liverpool - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - Strong bet, odds 1,80 Charlton - Everton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 Fulham - Aston Villa under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 Tottenham - Sunderland over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 Manchester United - Man. City over 2,5 goals - strong bet, odds 1,70 10 doubles 1 unit each. :hat History Strong bets: 67% (4/6) Medium strong bets: 53% (23/43) Staked: 10 units Won: Pending: 10 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 10, 2003 Share Posted February 10, 2003 Re: Bets for 8-9th February With all the over/under systems going on here, I feel like mine needs a little break to evaluate and regroup. Last week was three wins and two losses for a small profit if singles were backed. I backed doubles and made a tiny profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redchiz Posted February 10, 2003 Share Posted February 10, 2003 Re: Bets for 8-9th February Chin up, mate. :) I make it you made a return of 10.08 on your doubles, so you're still not behind. And it only would have been a half-point profit on singles, so I think the doubles were a risk worth taking. Your thoughts on doubling/trebling up gave me food for thought and it's certainly something I'll look at in the future, if I can keep my confidence levels up! The reason imho that so many punters are dabbling in this market is that it's nice and simple and easy to follow (for nice simple people, like me. ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: Bets for 8-9th February SH*T, you're right. I made a stupid error calculating... I make it a profit of 0.04 points actually. And thanks for the positive input. :) I will continue.... I think the real profit in this market is to be found with the doubles and trebles. As I've said numerous times earlier I'm testing the system in 4 other leagues as well, and back-testing has shown very nice profits with doubles and trebles (especially the french league). I'll go and update the results now :) Those confidence levels need rebuilding from time to time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Bet summary 8-9th February, + 0.04 points OK - an amazing 0.04 point profit this weekend! :p If only the Manchester-people had scored one more...still, lucky with the Charlton winning goal close to the final whistle. There seems to be a large number of over/under systems about now, and it's great that so many of them are doing so well! I hope to put mine back on track as well with the new staking. Liverpool - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - Strong bet, odds 1,80 WON :D Charlton - Everton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 - WON :D Fulham - Aston Villa under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 LOST >: Tottenham - Sunderland over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 :D WON with style... Manchester United - Man. City over 2,5 goals - strong bet, odds 1,70 - LOST >: 10 doubles 1 unit each. :hat History: Strong bets: 63% (5/8 bets) Medium strong bets: 54% (25/46 bets) Staked: 10 units Won: 10.04 units P ro f i t: 0.04 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 20, 2003 Share Posted February 20, 2003 Bet 19th February Fulham - West Bromwich under 2,5 goals - odds 1,75 :hat History: Strong bets: 63% (5/8 bets) Medium strong bets: 54% (25/46 bets) Staked: 10 units Won: 10.04 units P ro f i t: 0.04 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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