Guest Lardonio Posted December 16, 2002 Share Posted December 16, 2002 Testing a new over/under system for Premier League. It divides all matches up in three categories 'Strong bet', 'Medium strong bet' and 'No bet'. I will follow all bets with a 1 unit stake in this testing period. Bolton - Leeds over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,90 (Centrebet) :smokin History: Strong bets: 0 bets Medium strong bets: 1 bet - 1 unit 1 unit staked, 1 bet not settled :smokin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted December 16, 2002 Share Posted December 16, 2002 Re: Lardonios over/under system Hi Lardonio How are you selecting and categorising these matches and are they all going to be "over/under" matches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 16, 2002 Share Posted December 16, 2002 Re: Lardonios over/under system They are all going to be over/under matches. I am using four different criterias based on statistics which I would like to keep for myself for the time being. All matches in the PL are being tested vs. these four criterias. When all four say either over 2,5 or under 2,5 it's a strong bet. If half or three of the criterias say either over 2,5 or under 2,5 and the remaining 1 or 2 criterias say 'no bet' it's a medium strong bet. When there's a difference of opinion in the four criterias, or overwhelming 'no bets' in the criterias, it's a 'no bet'. I find the over/under market interesting because there are only two results. I hope this model will show a profit with the 'strong bet' category, but I'm also testing it for the 'medium strong bets' to see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 17, 2002 Share Posted December 17, 2002 Re: Lardonios over/under system match 1, +0,9 units Bolton - Leeds over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,90 (Centrebet) WON :D :smokin History: Strong bets: 0 bets Medium strong bets: 1 unit staked - 1,9 units won. + 0,9 :smokin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Highlander61 Posted December 19, 2002 Share Posted December 19, 2002 Re: Lardonios over/under system match 1, +0,9 units Lardonio, can you not back-test your system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 19, 2002 Share Posted December 19, 2002 Re: Lardonios over/under system match 1, +0,9 units It's an incredible amount of work backtesting it as there is quite a lot of analysis done for each match. Backtesting would be even more difficult as I would have to find historical data, filter out the things that have happened after the date I backtest, and then run the match. I should probably do it, but I don't have the time to do it properly. It would take me many (many!) hours of free time that I don't have, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paulybhoy Posted December 19, 2002 Share Posted December 19, 2002 Over under In soccer I personally would see little value in back testing a score. Say you establish that 2 corresponding fixtures last season ended 0-0, what would it really mean if there were penalties missed, woodwork hit, several unlucky chances missed or one of/both were really muddy conditions, you would have to have a HUGE data bank to have any accuracy from historical data. A ball sport played with the foot outdoors has too many unknown factors. It is a guessing game over/under goals no more than that for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted December 19, 2002 Share Posted December 19, 2002 over/under "it is a guessing game over/under goals no more than that for me. " Have to disagree mate. It relies on estimation of probabilities just like all betting. It may be more difficult than 1X2 estimation, but that will be true for the bookie too. The big positive from a punting point of view is that with only 2 outcomes, there is lower risk (assuming you can get an edge) and lower overround. Not something I have managed to do successfully (in soccer) mind you, but I definitely believe it is possible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 19, 2002 Share Posted December 19, 2002 Re: over/under It's no more a guessing game than any other form of betting. Surely things like hitting the woodwork, missing penalties etc. affect all outcomes and betting opportunities in a match, not only the under/over. Weren't you the person stating the obvious fact that it's easier to bet on sport events with fewer multiple alternatives, paulhyboy? That's what is interesting with this market. Only two outcomes. Unfortunately my system is (nearly) impossible to back-test, so we'll just have to see how it works out. I'm testing it for all major European leagues (may post the info here). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paulybhoy Posted December 20, 2002 Share Posted December 20, 2002 Guessing game TOO literal, your right I was not intending referring to the practise of over under goals betting as any less likely to succceed, because I agree for instance that there are teams that do seem to leak goals and others like Man utd more likely to score more than one. I also remember from last season that the Spanish league for example would often enough see certain teams seem incapable of scoring without conceding. I was more referring to the backtesting and thinking your right not to be over concerned as imo the past few/weeks and months of a teams play and circumstances are more important factors to consider for this market imo. I do however still personally view goals scored in soccer betting as much harder to call than in other sports, so I suppose thats where my view jumped the gun on it not being being more than a guessing game for me, to just do a over or under shout, so I adapt it. Weren't you the person stating the obvious fact that it's easier to bet on sport events with fewer multiple alternatives, paulhyboy? That's what is interesting with this market. Only two outcomes. Lardonio, I do see the clear benefit of the only 2 outcomes bet at decent odds as far more appealing than 3 at varying odds, and I did say that in a post a good while back. But if the above point is about the question I asked about the difficulty in guessing the answer to a question that has several viable alternatives as opposed to 2 or 3 I meant for people to consider something completely different and it is in reference to how bookmakers would ideally like to see punters bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 21, 2002 Share Posted December 21, 2002 First weekend tested I have checked the system for all matches this weekend and the following came out (see earlier messages in thread for more info). I am a bit worried about how many bets were found, but it's a test run so: Newcastle - Fulham over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,80 (Centrebet all odds quoted) Leeds - Southampton under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 Chelsea - Aston Villa under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 Birmingham - Charlton under 2,5 goals - STRONG bet. Odds: 1,75 Blackburn - Man. United over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,70 Liverpool - Everton under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 Man. City - Tottenham over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,75 :hat History: Strong bets: 0 bets Medium strong bets: 1 unit staked, 1,9 units won. + 0,9 7 bets undecided :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 24, 2002 Share Posted December 24, 2002 Results 1st week Very happy with the first full week. I avoided a few 'landmines' and got 5 out of 7 correct. Newcastle - Fulham over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,80 (Centrebet all odds quoted) - LOST >: Leeds - Southampton under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 - WON :D Chelsea - Aston Villa under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 - WON :D Birmingham - Charlton under 2,5 goals - STRONG bet. Odds: 1,75 - WON :D Blackburn - Man. United over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,70 - LOST >: Liverpool - Everton under 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,85 - WON :D Man. City - Tottenham over 2,5 goals - medium strong bet. Odds: 1,75 - WON :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 1 unit staked, 1.75 won. + 0.75 units. Medium strong bets: 7 units staked, 9.2 units won. + 2.2 units Total = 8 units staked, 10.95 units won - + 2,95 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 26, 2002 Share Posted December 26, 2002 Boxing day New round for my system. It does produce a lot of medium strong bets, but so far so good. 100% record for the strong bets, but with only 1 found that's not saying anything. I hope that the strong bets will show profitable in the long run, and I also have some hope for the medium strong bets. Anyway, here goes the 9 bets found by the system for this week: (all odds from Centrebet, all stakes are 1 unit) Birmingham - Everton under 2,5 - Medium strong bet, odds 1,80 Bolton - Newcastle over 2,5 - Medium strong bet, odds 1,85 Chelsea - Southampton over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 Liverpool - Blackburn under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 Middlesboro - Man. United over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,75 Sunderland - Leeds under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,75 Tottenham - Charlton under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,90 WBA - Arsenal over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 West Ham - Fulham under 2,5 - Medium Bet, odds 1,80 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 1 unit staked, 1.75 won. + 0.75 units. Medium strong bets: 7 units staked, 9.2 units won. + 2.2 units Total = 8 units staked, 10.95 units won - + 2,95 units 9 bets undecided :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 27, 2002 Share Posted December 27, 2002 Re: Boxing day update - this week + 1,9 units Updated results. Birmingham - Everton under 2,5 - Medium strong bet, odds 1,80 - WON :D Bolton - Newcastle over 2,5 - Medium strong bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D Chelsea - Southampton over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 - LOST >: Liverpool - Blackburn under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D Middlesboro - Man. United over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,75 -WON :D Sunderland - Leeds under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,75 - LOST >: Tottenham - Charlton under 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,90 - LOST >: WBA - Arsenal over 2,5 - Medium bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D West Ham - Fulham under 2,5 - Medium Bet, odds 1,80 - WON :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 1 unit staked, 1.75 won. + 0.75 units. Medium strong bets: 16 units staked, 20.1 units won. + 4.1 units Total = 17 units staked, 21.85 units won - + 4,85 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted December 27, 2002 Share Posted December 27, 2002 well done nice to see another system in profit... keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 28, 2002 Share Posted December 28, 2002 28th/29th December New round for the system. 1 strong and 5 medium strong bets this week. I hope the good results will continue. Here are the bets. All odds quoted are from Centrebet: Aston Villa - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,60 Blackburn - West Ham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 Everton - Bolton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 Fulham - Manchester City under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 Leeds - Chelsea under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,8 Newcastle - Tottenham over 2,5 goals - Strong bet, odds 1,75 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 1 unit staked, 1.75 won. + 0.75 units. Medium strong bets: 16 units staked, 20.1 units won. + 4.1 units Total = 17 units staked, 21.85 units won - + 4,85 units 6 bets undecided :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted December 29, 2002 Share Posted December 29, 2002 Re: 28th/29th December Only one wrong so far! Good stuff, keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 30, 2002 Share Posted December 30, 2002 Status 28th/29th December, this week + 2,95 units Thanks Oddsagainst and Madmick, it's going surprisingly well and I'm making some nice cash in this test run... 3 straight weeks of profit, but there must be a losing week lurking somewhere. Anyway, here are the results from 28/29th December: Aston Villa - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,60 - WON :D Blackburn - West Ham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 - WON :D Everton - Bolton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 - LOST >: Fulham - Manchester City under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,90 - WON :D Leeds - Chelsea under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,8 - WON :D Newcastle - Tottenham over 2,5 goals - Strong bet, odds 1,75 - WON :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 21 units staked, 27.3 units won. + 6.3 units Total = 23 units staked, 30.8 units won = + 7,8 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted December 31, 2002 Share Posted December 31, 2002 New bets 1. January 2003 I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! Up here it's -21 degrees (celsius), it's going to be cold watching the fireworks and drinking champagne tonight! Here are the matches selected by my system for the round of 1. January. 1 strong bet and 6 medium strong bets. All odds from Centrebet. Aston Villa - Bolton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 2,20 Blackburn - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 Charlton - West Ham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 Everton - Manchester City under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 Fulham - West Bromwich under 2,5 - STRONG bet, odds 1,60 Southampton - Tottenham over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,90 Newcastle - Liverpool over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,90 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 21 units staked, 27.3 units won. + 6.3 units Total = 23 units staked, 30.8 units won = + 7,8 units 7 bets in play :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 4, 2003 Share Posted January 4, 2003 Update after January 1st. This round - 3,25 units Well, after 3 weeks of profit it all went boom, just like the New Years Eve rockets. However, the loss this round was not nearly enough to wipe out the total profits, which now are 4,55 points after 28 bets. Aston Villa - Bolton over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 2,20 - LOST >: Blackburn - Middlesboro under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 - WON :D Charlton - West Ham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 - CANCELLED :\ Everton - Manchester City under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 - LOST >: Fulham - West Bromwich under 2,5 - STRONG bet, odds 1,60 - CANCELLED :\ Southampton - Tottenham over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,90 - LOST >: Newcastle - Liverpool over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,90 - LOST >: :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 26 units staked, 29.05 units won. + 3.05 units Total = 28 units staked, 32.55 units won = + 4,55 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 10, 2003 Share Posted January 10, 2003 Bets for this weekend (11-12 January) Well, 3 weeks of profit and 1 losing week (last week). Let's hope this one will turn out a winner. Here are the 5 bets unearthed by my system: (all odds quoted are Centrebet) Bolton - Fulham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 2,10 Chelsea - Charlton under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 Middlesboro - Southampton under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,70 Sunderland - Blackburn under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 West Ham - Newcastle over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 26 units staked, 29.05 units won. + 3.05 units Total = 28 units staked, 32.55 units won = + 4,55 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trickrick Posted January 11, 2003 Share Posted January 11, 2003 Strong bets I know it's only a 3 weeks into your system, but I'm intirgued to follow and bet on your STRONG bets which have a 100% record..Well done so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 13, 2003 Share Posted January 13, 2003 Results (11-12 January) this week -1,4 units Another losing week. Still in profit. But hoping for more winning bets, especially strong ones. I also welcome the more over/under systems in this thread! Let's find the holy grail! Bolton - Fulham over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 2,10 - LOST >: Chelsea - Charlton under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,80 - LOST >: Middlesboro - Southampton under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,70 - LOST >: Sunderland - Blackburn under 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,75 - WON :D West Ham - Newcastle over 2,5 goals - medium bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 31 units staked, 32.65 units won. + 2.65 units Total = 33 units staked, 36.15 units won = + 3,15 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 17, 2003 Share Posted January 17, 2003 Bets for the weekend 18-20 January Well, ups and downs. First three weeks gave a profit, next 2 weeks gave loss. Still in profit overall, and four new bets, including one strong one, generated by the system. I can also tell anyone interested that I'm following the system in four other leagues (in Europe) and the strong bets are looking good also there. Anyway, here are the bets (all odds quoted from Centrebet). Good luck! Man. United - Chelsea over 2,5 - Strong bet, odds 1,70 Aston Villa - Tottenham over 2,5 - medium strong bet, odds 2,00 Blackburn - Birmingham under 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,60 Charlton - Bolton over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,95 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 2 units staked, 3.5 won. + 1.5 units. Medium strong bets: 31 units staked, 32.65 units won. + 2.65 units Total = 33 units staked, 36.15 units won = + 3,15 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trickrick Posted January 20, 2003 Share Posted January 20, 2003 re: strong bets Well done on your Man Utd STRONG bet..Ok it took until the 92nd minute, but 3 goals is 3 goals and it's paid for my weekend..!! I look forward to your next strong tip.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 20, 2003 Share Posted January 20, 2003 Update weekend 18/19 January, -0,7 units Thanx, TrickRick, I'm happy my tip paid for your weekend :-) The Strong bets are looking good. I'm considering posting my Strong bets from other European leagues as well in the future, but I haven't tested them for many weeks yet. As the medium bets seem to have a steady decline in performance the Strong one might be the only ones worth backing. Still, I'll keep doing the medium one for a while longer and see what happens. Anyway, the results: Man. United - Chelsea over 2,5 - Strong bet, odds 1,70 - WON :D Aston Villa - Tottenham over 2,5 - medium strong bet, odds 2,00 - LOST >: Blackburn - Birmingham under 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,60- WON :D Charlton - Bolton over 2,5 - medium bet, odds 1,95 - LOST >: :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 3 units staked, 5.2 won. + 2.2 units. Medium strong bets: 34 units staked, 34.25 units won. + 0.25 units Total = 37 units staked, 39.45 units won = + 2,45 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 22, 2003 Share Posted January 22, 2003 Re: 1 bet Wednesday 22nd Hey. My system turns up 1 bet today. Odds quoted from Centrebet: Charlton - West Ham over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,85 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 3 units staked, 5.2 won. + 2.2 units. Medium strong bets: 34 units staked, 34.25 units won. + 0.25 units Total = 37 units staked, 39.45 units won = + 2,45 units 1 bet pending :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted January 23, 2003 Share Posted January 23, 2003 Re: 1 bet Wednesday 22nd good luck lardonio! my over/under stats also throw up charlton v west ham as over :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 23, 2003 Share Posted January 23, 2003 Re: 1 bet Wednesday 22nd +0,85 units Thanks Smudge, and over it was - well over. I'm happy my system avoided the Newcastle-match as I was considering an over bet in that one as well. But didn't. Status yesterday and to date: Charlton - West Ham over 2,5 goals, medium bet, odds 1,85 - WON :D :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 3 units staked, 5.2 won. + 2.2 units. Medium strong bets: 35 units staked, 36.1 units won. + 1.1 units Total = 38 units staked, 41.3 units won = + 3,3 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 28, 2003 Share Posted January 28, 2003 Bets for 28th and 29th of January Well, here we go again after a no bet weekend because of cup games. My system has turned up a lot of bets today, and this week seems to be the week where my system 'decides' if it wants go stay in profit or not. 2 strong bets this week! Here are the bets, odds quoted are from Centrebet (obviously you should find the best odds available!): Middlesboro - Aston Villa under 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,75 Bolton - Everton over 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,95 Sunderland - Southampton under 2,5, STRONG bet, odds 1,75 Man. City - Fulham over 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,85 Tottenham - Newcastle over 2,5, STRONG bet, odds 1,75 Liverpool - Arsenal under 2,5, medium bet, odds 1,85 :hat History: (every bet 1 unit) Strong bets: 3 units staked, 5.2 won. + 2.2 units. Medium strong bets: 35 units staked, 36.1 units won. + 1.1 units Total = 38 units staked, 41.3 units won = + 3,3 units :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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