Kempton (eve) - 8/10/08

[fintron]

8.50 Russki is a horse that I've followed quite a bit in recent months. I first backed him for his run at the end of July and expected a good run after he was backed off the boards that day (14/1 into 11/2). Unfortunately he finished 4th after failing to see out the final furlong of the mile trip. However, I kept faith for his next run two weeks later over a mile at Kempton, napped him, and was rewarded when he ran home a 6/1 winner. The handicapper obviously had to react to that winning performance and put him up to a career high mark of 96 for his last run, and he faced a difficult task up in a hot class 2 handicap up against some decent types such as Premio Loco. He was weak in the market that day but, to be fair, was not helped by his low draw. Inevitably starting from stall 4, he wasted energy in the opening stages and his draw was not ideal given that he races from the front. His poor draw probably explained why he found little extra at the business end of the race, but nevertheless, David Simcock's Fasliyev colt didn't go down without a fight and battled back to regain his lead at one point. Today, Russki has been dropped back to 7 furlongs and that could prove to be an inspired decision by connections. He possesses the pace to be effective over the shorter trip and indeed, was a course and distance scorer as a juvenile. Although he carries top weight, a combination of the shorter trip, a drop in class (to a level at which he is proven) and a drop of 1 lb in the weights could ensure he finishes much stronger today. I am not convinced by some of the other runners here, who either have to prove their effectiveness on the surface (South Cape), are up in grade (King's Wonder) or have a good draw but no recent winning form to accompany it (My Gacho, Presumptive and Irony was well behind Russki here recently). The biggest danger to Russki could be the reliable Fathsta, who is equally as good on the all-weather as he is on turf and looks on a dangerous mark. He is tactically versatile so his draw may not necessarily be a hindrance, although he does have an inferior top-speed rating to Russki and for that reason I have marginal prefence for Russki. 11/2 Paddypower EW. :hope

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Kempton (eve) - 8/10/08 8.20 Summers Target 13/8 var bog 15 pts Put this up the last two times and both times it has suffered slightly frustrating defeats. However Im going to give it another chance. Has posted three runs so far and they have all been decent enough, second on debut behind useful derbaas when interestingly put in the same maiden that the tariner had won the year before with the useful city leader, was pegged pack late on by brief candle at san in a race that has seen some come out and win/run well and then lto it got a strange ride really. He was free early on but he was totally isolated by spencer on what seemed the worst place to be throughout the whole of that card, eventually it would weaken into third. However the second that day has won since so early signs are that was a fair maiden as one would expect for that track. He is dropping down in trip to 6f and certainly he has showed so far he is not short of speed and if anything hasnt quite fully got home in the odd race over further.