Guest condythug Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 what staking system do you advice that we should use if we are able to get short priced winners often (80% strike rate)? thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Advice? Do you propose to share these with us and what do you mean by short-priced? Some more information would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? hi yeh short price like 2/5 odds mostly below 1 odds.....any ideas? thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? You are a man of few words condythug. :) How about giving us some information about your selections? What sport are you betting on? How many bets per week? What are the average odds of your selections? What type of bet? Over how many bets have you achieved an 80% stike rate? And for the second time, do you intend to share these selections with us? You will receive some very advanced and worthwhile advice on staking systems here, some of which you would need to pay for elsewhere but it is about give and take, i.e. the sharing of information, and you are not telling us very much. Of course, you could just take the time to read the sticky topics at the top of the forum and follow the links there for unrivalled previous discussions on staking strategies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? hi again, apologise for not giving more details as my english isn't too good:\ . the bets are on horse racing and bets are 3-4/week to win horses. it is been on for sometime so i know its trustable. sure i can post the tips whenever they come up if people like them. hope this helps. and thanks again for any advices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? Sorry, I did not realise English was not your first language. (so it's not that bad) :) Personally, I would be using level stakes here but Joe is the staking strategy expert on this board and I am sure he will be along to give you some advice. Might be some more questions first though. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? This sounds interesting. 80% accuracy for horse racing! Could you provide some stats? How many races have you bet on and over what length of time? You could start a thread in here, stating the race, time date and of coarse the horse! This would proof the system nicely anyway. just check out many of the systems in place here for examples. As for a staking plan, that all depends how you access risk. Before any decisoins can be made we would need to know what your average odds are. 80% strike rate is good, but if were not getting value then it is pointless continuing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? Level stakes seems quite appropriate. Where all the bets are odds on it hardly worth the hassle of doing an extra work for a fixed profits strategy since win expectancies are generally above 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Advice? hey thanks for the notes....i been doing this alone for a few months and back checking it too and its not too bad. most odds are below 1 like 8/13 or 2/5 etc. occasions it might be 5/4 but not too often. i started off with a small bank just $100 and doubled it in a month but was wondering whether my current staking plan (level stakes) can be improved thus the query. i will try to get any bets on this thread when they occur. thanks again!:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Advice? Of course it can be improved in terms of generating more profit, but this will always be at the expense of a greater chance of losing it all. If you're confident and patient, I would suggest percentage bank staking, for example 3% of your current bankroll for each bet, i.e, as the bankroll grows so does your stake size (of course the reverse is true too). The down side to this is that the length of time spent recovering to a specific level from any losing run is always longer than for level stakes (that's just the nature of the beast). However, if you genuinely have a long term edge over the bookie, then you stand to make more dosh (again it's the nature of the beast). Hence the point about being patient. The choice is yours. Personally I'd bet level stakes (or fixed profits which in your case isn't too disimilar) and if successful over a few seasons change to % bank staking or even Kelly staking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Advice? is there any truth to the Maclean's Mathemtical Formula that changes short odds to 100-1 (as they advertise)? i was looking through their website and can't really believe it is true....or? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Skywriter Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Advice? As a matter of interest, with a strike rate of 80% and average winning SP of 2/5, the Kelly formula indicates that you should stake 30% of your bank on each selection. (I can post the calculation if anyone is interested). As is the way with Kelly, that's an aggressive staking strategy to say the least. However, with an 80% strike rate it's not unreasonable to adopt a modified version of this. My own suggestion would be to bet 10% of your bank on each selection, which should grow your bank at a decent rate whilst still providing a good safety margin. I would also withdraw some of the profits from the bank at regular intervals in order to 'lock in' your profits. As regards the Maclean Formula, I gather from looking at their site it involves betting at exchanges. They don't give much away at the site, but one (perhaps cynical) interpretation would be that it involves laying very short priced favourites. If you lay a horse at 1/100, you are in effect getting a price of 100/1 about it failing. If anyone has bought this e-book, I'd be very interested to know what they thought of it. Skywriter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 MacClean Just another get rich quick scheme IMO. The only person to get rich here will be Mr Maclean himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Advice? With that kind of turnover of bets, I'd look to use some sort of plateau system. Basically it would work something like this: 1) Bet level stakes at a comfortable level for you, which with that kind of strike rate and odds (if they can be sustained!!) might be around 10%. Might be better to use a more conservative 5% 2) When you bank hits a certain level, withdraw some and make what is left a new starting bank for example if you start with £100, you might stake £5 per bet until you hit £150. Then withdraw £25. Your new starting bank becomes £125 so you stake £6.25 until you reach £187.50. Then withdraw £43.75 (Total now withdrawn is £68.75). New bank is £143.75, new stake is £7.19, and new target is £215.63 etc Remember that unless you actually withdraw some money, all notions of profit are somewhat hypothetical! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Advice? also if you ever considered getting the AbbeyGold system, it is a piece of useless material. i bought it some time ago and the system is so laughabble you have to see it to believe it:lol thankfully there was a money back guarantee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted April 18, 2003 Share Posted April 18, 2003 Maclean The Maclean formula was written for horse racing and betting on the tote for place only which allows you to put your full stake on a place only bet rather than split it for an e/w bet therefore being able to take lower priced horses. The rest of the formula is a sort of running acca but still using a fixed stake from your original bank where as the more consecutive winners you get the greater the return is increased compered to normal fixed stake betting. The bonus part of it is if you get to say 6 wins on the trot and the seventh looses you still end up in profit even though the seventh part of your running acca has gone down. When this happens you then start the sequence again from bet 1. The formula can be used for any type of betting horses/football etc because I use it myself and have had some very good returns but it is NOT something that will make you rich overnight, as with any form of gambling it takes time and patience and of course good selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 19, 2003 Share Posted April 19, 2003 tip 5:00 Stratford Divet Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 19, 2003 Share Posted April 19, 2003 Re: tip Hi condythug, I you have a system here could you please give some detail about it, without revealing everything of course. If you just want to give some tips then the "At the Races" forum is the place to post them, more members who are interested in racing will see them there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 19, 2003 Share Posted April 19, 2003 Re: tip hi ok i will move the tips to the other thread:o about the system, i use a formula of "Facts" & "Hype". if a horse in a race has "Facts" = "Hype" in his/her favour, then the horse is almost a sure winner. most systems weakness i find is that they are heavier on "Facts" like form, hard numbers but they ignore the "Hype" factor which is as important because there are horse experts everywhere and not everyone can be wrong or ignored. so when we have the facts (ala form) equating the hype in the market then we wouldn't be missing much in our analysis. my secret (if you would call it that) is that i am able to quantify the "Facts" & "Hype" using some stats. back checking it has proven to be profitable. hope this helps;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest condythug Posted April 20, 2003 Share Posted April 20, 2003 Re: tip well i should have known lol. first time i post a tip here and it lost.:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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